Ukraine—end game?

HBS Guy

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Russia’s defence ministry said on Friday that the first phase of its military operation was “generally” complete, saying the country will focus on the “liberation” of Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region.

The defence ministry stated Russian-backed separatists now controlled 93% of Luhansk and 54% of Donetsk, the self-proclaimed republics in Ukraine’s east. The two together are commonly known as the Donbas region.

“The main objectives of the first stage of the operation have generally been accomplished,” Sergei Rudskoi, the head of the Russian general staff’s main operational directorate said during a briefing.

In Friday’s announcement, Russia also appeared to hint that Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine may be turning to more limited objectives, adding that the main goal of the operation was the “liberation of the Donbas”.

“The combat potential of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has been considerably reduced, which ... makes it possible to focus our core efforts on achieving the main goal, the liberation of Donbas.”

Russia has been shifting its objectives in Ukraine throughout the war. The Russian president, Vladimir Putin, earlier said that the “denazification” of the Ukrainian leadership – generally understood as regime change – was the main motivation for the invasion.

Michael Kofman, the director of the Russia studies programme at the CNA thinktank, on Friday tweeted that the military briefing suggested Russia would focus on “taking as much of the Donbas as possible,” while claiming Donbas was always the main goal of what Kremlin refers to a “special military operation”.

“I had a hypothesis that the more minimal aims Moscow could have at this point is to try to take all of the Donbas, pursue some political settlement, then turn around and claim that’s what this operation was really all about in an effort to salvage something & declare victory,” Kofman tweeted.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/mar/25/ukraine-war-latest-news-sanctions-a-little-late-zelenskiy-tells-european-council-biden-to-visit-poland-live

Wow so they lost 10,000 men killed, 17,000 men wounded, lost any number of tanks, AFVs and military trucks, had their economy destroyed—for a bit more territory stolen from Ukraine?
 

SethBullock

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That sounds like they're looking for a way out. For Russia, almost everything that could go wrong did go wrong.
 

HBS Guy

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I wonder if they will try to capture the strip of land along the Sea of Azov that would give them the land bridge from Russia to the Crimea. If Ukraine could sabotage the bridges leading to Crimea that would severely hurt the already overstretched and inadequate russian logistics and rob them of that land bridge.
 

HBS Guy

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Putin has threatened to hit Mariupol with a MOAB that would kill all in and around the industrial area where the defenders are concentrated.
 

HBS Guy

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Putin getting pissed off at Western help for Ukraine, promises a “very fast response.”

 

HBS Guy

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Ukraine was to have been just the first country to be invaded. The beating the russians got in Ukraine, the economic damage the sanctions are starting to do probably means that may not happen. Moldova was next in the firing line.
 

Shellandshilo1956

Active member
So now the US is sending fighter jets to Poland, to be sent to the Ukraine.


NATO forces are now reinforcing the eastern flank. 13 countries that have nothing to do with the Ukraine-Russian war, are sending fighter jets, stinger missiles, anti-tank and aircraft missiles, munitions, body armor, intelligence systems, air-defense rockets, rifles, grenades, night googles, sniper rifles, and mortars to the Ukraine.

I know that for most people, "Russia bad, Ukraine good, save the Ukraine". Or worst, that "Russia will take over every country in its path". But rational people think about the consequences of our actions. The Russians are trying to stop the Ukrainian government (that was once part of Russia), from joining NATO. What would happen if the Ukraine did joined NATO?

Firstly, the country would enjoy the military protection as an ally by all NATO allies. If they are attacked, its allies would defend them. Secondly, the Ukraine government could allow foreign military bases next to Russia. This could mean having nuclear weapons on Russia's southern borders. Do you remember America's response during the Cuban crisis?

So, yes Russia has a very good strategic reason to change the Ukrainian government. There would be a real threat to its national security. The possibility of having nukes pointed at Moscow is just unacceptable.

But what is worse are the proxy wars with Russia by 13 interfering countries. Russia will have no choice but to start attacking weapon's routes, foreign depots, convoys, and airlines providing armament to the Ukraine. Eventually Russia will kill many foreigners providing arms to the Ukraine. This may be the excuse needed to reach the point of no return. And even while survivors are choking in a nuclear winter, there will still be the same idiots claiming that it was Russia's fault for not just giving up.

The hypocrisy here is incredible. Russia decided to have all hostile countries buy their oil and gas(40% of Europe), in Russian Rubles. Instead of the normal Euros. By hostile, I mean supplying arms and munition to the Ukraine. I suppose they could have just attacked these countries in self-defense. But asking them to pay in a different currency for their oil and gas seems pretty tame to me.

My only hope is that Russia will ignore all the provocations, and will chose to withdraw rather than nuke the planet. Lets hope that we will never have to go through what Tulsi went though in Hawaii.

 
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