russia

[HBS Guy]

The russian economy is going to come apart at the seams in a month or two. Putin may have seized the planes leased to russia but without spare parts how long can these planes fly?

The railway system which ties the vast russian federation together will also start faltering, unable to get parts. Then the various “state” governments will increasingly act for themselves, stockpiling food etc.

The government budget will be OK for a while, or their oil/gas revenues will be but government revenues are not an economy.

When the Ukrainians launch a major counterattack and retake Kherson Putin will not be popular anymore (assuming he really is popular now.) This counterattack will be units trained and using the new, powerful weapons the West is supplying to Ukraine.

 

[Redneck]

The russian economy is going to come apart at the seams in a month or two. Putin may have seized the planes leased to russia but without spare parts how long can these planes fly?

The railway system which ties the vast russian federation together will also start faltering, unable to get parts. Then the various “state” governments will increasingly act for themselves, stockpiling food etc.

The government budget will be OK for a while, or their oil/gas revenues will be but government revenues are not an economy.

When the Ukrainians launch a major counterattack and retake Kherson Putin will not be popular anymore (assuming he really is popular now.) This counterattack will be units trained and using the new, powerful weapons the West is supplying to Ukraine.

One can only hope so!

 

[johnsmith]

I don't see how Russia can hold out long term. The only question is who will cave first? Ukraine or Russia?

 

[HBS Guy]

Ukraine armed forces have high morale despite the losses they have been taking, the russians rank and file want to go home.

 

[johnsmith]

Ukraine armed forces have high morale despite the losses they have been taking, the russians rank and file want to go home.

I don't think it's so much about morale. The russians will stay or risk being shot by their own commanders. I think it's a question of whose economy will collapse first. Ukraine is Ok whilst the west is feeling generous, but how long before they all forget about it.

 

[HBS Guy]

The Donbas etc that russia is slowly pulverising and capturing has a lot of oil under it. Another one of the SSRs on the Caspian Sea have been forbidden by russia to run a pipeline under the Caspian Sea and on to Europe.

Looters and Pillagers are the russians ATM.

On a longer timescale than an economy—russia is facing a demographic cliff where the proportion of young males—cannon fodder—in the population will decrease sharply.

 

[Linus]

Whatever your view is on the Ukraine/Russian conflict, take some time out to listen to this American political scientist's analysis:

 

[FutureTheLeftWant]

The russian economy is going to come apart at the seams in a month or two. Putin may have seized the planes leased to russia but without spare parts how long can these planes fly?

The USA encouraged Ukraine to ask to join NATO while working to deny it to them. I think they are actually getting in now, out of this war, but the USA was putting pressure on Russia to cause this war.

 

[Shellandshilo1956]

Whatever your view is on the Ukraine/Russian conflict, take some time out to listen to this American political scientist's analysis:

The USA encouraged Ukraine to ask to join NATO while working to deny it to them. I think they are actually getting in now, out of this war, but the USA was putting pressure on Russia to cause this war.

Hello! You two are absolutely right. Unfortunately(especially in the US), for decades most people have been conditioned and indoctrinated into believing that Russia is just an evil threat to humanity(like N. Korea). This is how the media portrays these nations, and the gullible sheeples mindlessly laps it up. These people believe, that it is manifest destiny that makes America the world's police and moral compass. It doesn't matter how many innocent must die in making the world in the image of White America.

These people don't care what happened during the Cuban missile crisis, the lies about WMD's, the Bay of Tonkin Incident, or the many warnings Russia gave NATO about inducting the Ukraine(since 2008). Or, even the truth about why the US dropped the bombs over Japan(I also think they did it to let Russia know that they will use nuclear bombs). They don't care that Russia was only reacting to a very real existential threat to its national security. These people only believe, that if Russia isn't responsible, THEN RUSSIA SHOULD BE!! They pick and choose only the information that supports their confirmation bias. And, simply rationalize or ignore all the rest.

I am certainly a fan of Prof. Mearsheimer. I consider him one of the greatest realists thinkers since Mark Twain. He's not interested in political media spins, or in any self-serving manufactured government default narrative. He simply backs his truth-claims with historical references, and verifiable facts. Unfortunately, people would rather believe in the canned and packaged theatrics of the media, than in the truth. Thank you again for the video.

 

[Linus]

ShellandShilo1956 wrote:

"These people don't care what happened during the Cuban missile crisis, the lies about WMD's, the Bay of Tonkin Incident, or the many warnings Russia gave NATO about inducting the Ukraine(since 2008). Or, even the truth about why the US dropped the bombs over Japan(I also think they did it to let Russia know that they will use nuclear bombs)."

That certainly paints a bleak picture of the US's performance on the world stage. However, I have a small quibble with "These people".
Maybe it might have been better to say successive administrations and/or right wing/nationalist shitsLOL instead . There were and are a lot of people in the US who were and are opposed to these actions.

 

[johnsmith]

The USA's past actions don't excuse what Putin is doing.

 

[Linus]

The USA's past actions don't excuse what Putin is doing.

That's right. There is a moral argument but on this planet the powers that be, shall we say, bend or ignore the compass from time to time. I'd point out what ShellandShilo noted: WMD, Vietnam war, and nuking Japan. And in the Cuban missile crisis, Kennedy was willing to nuke the entire planet than tolerate Russia on his doorstep.

 

[Shellandshilo1956]

ShellandShilo1956 wrote:

"These people don't care what happened during the Cuban missile crisis, the lies about WMD's, the Bay of Tonkin Incident, or the many warnings Russia gave NATO about inducting the Ukraine(since 2008). Or, even the truth about why the US dropped the bombs over Japan(I also think they did it to let Russia know that they will use nuclear bombs)."

That certainly paints a bleak picture of the US's performance on the world stage. However, I have a small quibble with "These people".
Maybe it might have been better to say successive administrations and/or right wing/nationalist shitsLOL instead . There were and are a lot of people in the US who were and are opposed to these actions.

I thought I had preferenced and defined "These people", in the first paragraph,

"Unfortunately(especially in the US), for decades MOST people have been conditioned and indoctrinated into believing that Russia is just an evil threat to humanity(like N. Korea). This is how the media portrays these nations, and the gullible sheeples mindlessly laps it up. These people believe, that it is manifest destiny that makes America the world's police and moral compass. It doesn't matter how many innocent must die in making the world in the image of White America.".

This train of thought was continued into the next paragraph. Sorry, I didn't mean to imply that ALL Americans are gullible sheeples, mindlessly lapping up whatever the media tells them. I should have made this more clearer.

However, the direction of the US administration has been the same since "Ike's" warnings about the MIC. From the FIA released documents, the imperatives of the US are its sovereignty, its security, and its economic world position/dominance. It didn't matter what administration was in power. All administrations since "Ike", either inherited military actions or created new military actions.

Regardless, America's performance on the world's stage is more than just bleak. It is criminal! It runs the gamut from illegal invasions and occupations, killing more innocent people than combatants, supporting and arming terrorist, election interference, illegal electronic and satellite surveillances, financing and arming coups, stealing or controlling other countries' natural resources, changing regimes with puppet-heads, reneging on promises and treaty agreements, abandoning countries supporting them, sanctioning countries that don't play ball, blatantly executing military leaders and making any excuse it wants, Lying and re-lying to its own citizens, and using other countries to fight their proxy wars for them.

Unfortunately, all you need in American to control public belief, is a good media with great actors. Their only job is to disseminate disinformation and targeted omissions. They then package this theatrical tripe as the whole truth. That's it. Most of the media's audience find it much easier to just believe anything from their favorite celebrity, than to objectively justify that belief themselves(intellectual laziness). Damn Evolution for our herd instinct!

Why is Pine gap still in operation in Australia?? Why does the America military control, and maintain the GPS system for the entire world?? Why is oil traded only in US Dollars??
These answers are as obvious, as they are verifiable. IMHO

https://www.greenleft.org.au/content/secret-history-pine-gap-australias-cia-spy-base

 

[FutureTheLeftWant]

The USA's past actions don't excuse what Putin is doing.

Not at all. As is so often the case, life is complex. That's why right wing people are lost.

But that's largely true. The right in America think Russia is still communist and communism is evil. They turn a blind eye to their own evil empire. I had a woman come up to me, I was on a whale watch tour out of the far north east (forget the place) and she asked where I was from and said 'is that one of those countries that hate us for our freedom???'. I didn't bother.

 

[johnsmith]

I was on a whale watch tour out of the far north east (forget the place) and she asked where I was from and said 'is that one of those countries that hate us for our freedom???'.

I would have answered 'No, not texas'

 

[Linus]

I would have answered 'No, not texas'

Don't just look at Texas. Look at what's going on here:


"Australia’s intelligence apparatus mines the telecommunications data of ordinary Australians, and hands over the material to the US and its closest allies, according to the latest leaked document from Edward Snowden, partly published by the Guardian Australia web site yesterday.

The document obtained by the former US National Security Agency (NSA) contractor confirms that the electronic surveillance agency, the Australian Signals Directorate (ASD), monitors the domestic population, as well as the people and governments of many Asian countries.

Despite Australian legislation supposedly restricting the ASD’s internal spying, the agency hands over to the NSA and its global partners so-called metadata of the phone calls, texts, emails, on-line address books and social media posts of millions of people..."

Snowden document confirms US-backed mass surveillance in Australia

The leaked document shows that the Australian Signals Directorate monitors the domestic population, as well as the people and governments of many Asian countries.

www.wsws.org

We're virtually living in 1984.

 

[mothra]

 

[Chuck]

Hello! You two are absolutely right. Unfortunately(especially in the US), for decades most people have been conditioned and indoctrinated into believing that Russia is just an evil threat to humanity(like N. Korea). This is how the media portrays these nations, and the gullible sheeples mindlessly laps it up. These people believe, that it is manifest destiny that makes America the world's police and moral compass. It doesn't matter how many innocent must die in making the world in the image of White America.

These people don't care what happened during the Cuban missile crisis, the lies about WMD's, the Bay of Tonkin Incident, or the many warnings Russia gave NATO about inducting the Ukraine(since 2008). Or, even the truth about why the US dropped the bombs over Japan(I also think they did it to let Russia know that they will use nuclear bombs). They don't care that Russia was only reacting to a very real existential threat to its national security. These people only believe, that if Russia isn't responsible, THEN RUSSIA SHOULD BE!! They pick and choose only the information that supports their confirmation bias. And, simply rationalize or ignore all the rest.

I am certainly a fan of Prof. Mearsheimer. I consider him one of the greatest realists thinkers since Mark Twain. He's not interested in political media spins, or in any self-serving manufactured government default narrative. He simply backs his truth-claims with historical references, and verifiable facts. Unfortunately, people would rather believe in the canned and packaged theatrics of the media, than in the truth. Thank you again for the video.

One thing that u have forgotten is that Putin wanted to join NATO, but insisted on getting special treat with the Russian application.

NATO basically told Putin that they have to go thru all the processes and meet the criteria before acceptance.

By Putin pushing to become a NATO partner, it would hint that he believed in this organisation integrity and adhering to it mantra.

Putin is basically acting like a spoil brat, who didn’t get his way and simply wants revenge at any cost!

 

[Linus]

One thing that u have forgotten is that Putin wanted to join NATO, but insisted on getting special treat with the Russian application.

NATO basically told Putin that they have to go thru all the processes and meet the criteria before acceptance.

By Putin pushing to become a NATO partner, it would hint that he believed in this organisation integrity and adhering to it mantra.

Putin is basically acting like a spoil brat, who didn’t get his way and simply wants revenge at any cost!

That seems rather fanciful. Look, the erstwhile Soviet Union tried to join NATO. Before Putin. Of course, it was seen by NATO as a way by the Soviets to neutralize the alliance in much the same way the West was being frustrated by the Soviets in the UN security council. The Soviets,however, saw it as a way of maintaining world peace. NATO rejected the overture. Shortly after the Warsaw Pact was formed.

When Putin took over sometime after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, and after the fall of the Berlin Wall, he did see Russia as a European country and wanted to join. NATO, euphoric from the fall of the Berlin war, did not see Russia as an equal, thought they had the Russians on the run, and contemptuously told him to join the queue. NATO's raison d'etre was the Soviets and is Russia. You could hardly have the "enemy" upon which your existence predicated, join.

The US has since the WW2 had it's intent fixed on rolling the Soviets and Russia. And NATO is a US sock. The US has been trying to encircle Russia much the same way as they've done to China. It's no secret. And they've been constantly upping the ante. Russia had been telling them to knock it off and for a long time had been seeking a new mutually beneficial security deal. That wasn't in US/ NATO DNA.

They've been knocking Russia from pillar to post with their aggressive expansion. They tried to get Georgia on board. Right at the Russian doorstep. Russia told them to back-off. Did they listen, no. They supported and incited a colour revolution to install a Western friendly leader in the Ukraine.

The West knew it was causing trouble by moving to take the Ukraine into its sphere. There are communiques documenting that. The Ukraine was Russia's Cuba.

And look what the Americans did there. So intolerable was it that they had Soviet missiles on their doorstep, and whilst overlooking the fact that they had first placed missiles in Turkey, threatened to engulf the world in a nuclear holocaust.

The West is using Ukraine as a battering ram against Russia. The Russians had warned and warned and it all fell on deaf , hegemonic ears.

And here we are today. If the West co-operated this shit show in the Ukraine could have been averted.

This petulant, crazy, Soviet resurrecting Putin theory, imho, just doesn't stack up against real world events. It's more like the West (US) wanting undisputed, unchallenged world domination.

 

[Shellandshilo1956]

One thing that u have forgotten is that Putin wanted to join NATO, but insisted on getting special treat with the Russian application.

NATO basically told Putin that they have to go thru all the processes and meet the criteria before acceptance.

By Putin pushing to become a NATO partner, it would hint that he believed in this organisation integrity and adhering to it mantra.

Putin is basically acting like a spoil brat, who didn’t get his way and simply wants revenge at any cost!

I seriously doubt that the leader of the largest and most powerful nuclear country in the world, has been chucking a hissy-fit for over 22 years. Just because NATO wouldn't afford his country special administrative treatment(LIKE THE US!).

As "LINUS" has beaten me in pointing out, this has always been about NATO's eastern expansion into Europe. After the Cold War, the fall of the Berlin Wall, and the Warsaw Pact, Russian leaders have seen a steady expansion by NATO, to form alliances with Russia's former Warsaw Pact states and ex-Soviet republics. These alliances would simply put more NATO-controlled countries at Russia's doorsteps. Remember, if you become a part of NATO, then America can put its nukes and bases in your country(under the guise of NATO bases).

In the late 1990s, it was the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland. In the 2000s, it was Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Albania, and Croatia. All this despite Russia being given reassurance, that after the fall of the Berlin Wall and the end of the cold war, that it would not extend its jurisdiction one inch to the east. All of these countries now have(in the process of having) US military instillations and NATO bases in their countries. I think Russia now knows just how Iran must have felt.

"U.S. Secretary of State James A. Baker said to Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev in February 1990, that “there would be no extension of NATO’s jurisdiction for forces of NATO one inch to the east.”

Russia's fears were further validated, when in the late 2000s, NATO stated its intent to admit Georgia and the Ukraine into its alliance, at some unspecified time in the future. Despite all the warning by Russia and Putin, the US and NATO did what they always do, say one thing and do another. So rather than risk being encircled by NATO allied countries, they fought back to protect their nations security. And, the only things this support by NATO allied countries have done, is to increase the length of the war, and the number of Ukrainian body-bags.