Portent of doom ... Ending greenhouse gas emissions may not stop global warming

Squire

Active member
Those with children and grandchildren have handed them a poison chalice as their inheritance.

Global warming has momentum and has positive feedback from melting ice and permafrost.

All feedback factors are highly significant like loss of reflection from the absence of ice and the release of methane and CO2 from melting permafrost.

Human-kind has doomed itself and doomed much of the flora and fauna of the planet.

"According to our models, humanity is beyond the point-of-no-return when it comes to halting the melting of permafrost using greenhouse gas cuts as the single tool".

The article discusses "sucking CO2 out of the atmosphere". However, it seems impossible when the technology to do that is not being researched or invented let alone implemented. It has already been hypothesized that a trillion tree plantings won't be sufficient.

Mankind has terraformed and perverted the ecosystem of the planet.

https://phys.org/news/2020-11-greenhouse-gas-emissions-global.html

Ending greenhouse gas emissions may not stop global warming: study
by Marlowe Hood

Even if humanity stopped emitting greenhouse gases tomorrow, Earth will warm for centuries to come and oceans will rise by metres, according to a controversial modelling study published Thursday.

Natural drivers of global warming—more heat-trapping clouds, thawing permafrost, and shrinking sea ice—already set in motion by carbon pollution will take on their own momentum, researchers from Norway reported in the Nature journal Scientific Reports.

"According to our models, humanity is beyond the point-of-no-return when it comes to halting the melting of permafrost using greenhouse gas cuts as the single tool," lead author Jorgen Randers, a professor emeritus of climate strategy at the BI Norwegian Business School, told AFP.

"If we want to stop this melting process we must do something in addition—for example, suck CO2 out of the atmosphere and store it underground, and make Earth's surface brighter."

Using a stripped-down climate model, Randers and colleague Ulrich Goluke projected changes out to the year 2500 under two scenarios: the instant cessation of emissions, and the gradual reduction of planet warming gases to zero by 2100.

In an imaginary world where carbon pollution stops with a flip of the switch, the planet warms over the next 50 years to about 2.3 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels—roughly half-a-degree above the target set in the 2015 Paris Agreement—and cools slightly after that.

Earth's surface today is 1.2C hotter than it was in the mid-19th century, when temperatures began to rise.

But starting in 2150, the model has the planet beginning to gradually warm again, with average temperatures climbing another degree over the following 350 years, and sea levels going up by at least three metres.

Under the second scenario, Earth heats up to levels that would tear at the fabric of civilisation far more quickly, but ends up at roughly the same point by 2500.

'Tipping points'

The core finding—contested by leading climate scientists—is that several thresholds, or "tipping points", in Earth's climate system have already been crossed, triggering a self-perpetuating process of warming, as has happened millions of years in the past.

One of these drivers is the rapid retreat of sea ice in the Arctic.

Since the late 20th century, millions of square kilometres of snow and ice—which reflects about 80 percent of the Sun's radiative force back into space—have been replaced in summer by open ocean, which absorbs the same percentage instead.

Another source is the thawing of permafrost, which holds twice as much carbon as there is in the atmosphere. The third is increasing amounts of water vapour, which also has a warming effect.

Reactions from half-a-dozen leading climate scientists to the study—which the authors acknowledge is schematic—varied sharply, with some saying the findings merit follow-up research, and others rejecting it out of hand.

"The model used here is ... not shown to be a credible representation of the real climate system," said Richard Betts, head of climate impacts research at the University of Exeter.

"In fact, it is directly contradicted by more established and extensively evaluated climate models."

Mark Maslin, a professor of climatology at University College London, also pointed to shortcomings in the model, known as ESCIMO, describing the study as a "thought experiment."

"What the study does draw attention to is that reducing global carbon emissions to zero by 2050"—a goal championed by the UN and embraced by a growing number of countries—"is just the start of our actions to deal with climate change."

Even the more sophisticated models used in the projections of the UN's scientific advisory body, the IPCC, show that the Paris climate pact temperature goals cannot be reached unless massive amounts of CO2 are removed from the atmosphere.

One way to do that is planting billions of trees. Experimental technologies have shown that sucking CO2 out of the air can be done mechanically, but so far not at the scale required.
 

pinkeye

Wonder woman
Sad YES.. it's been too late for 40 fucking years. Hope all those rich arseholes on Boards and ceo's and big shareholders in poison industries UNDERSTAND... they leave a legacy of destruction, and HEY their families might live in domes or something.
 

MilesAway

Bongalong
Sad YES.. it's been too late for 40 fucking years. Hope all those rich arseholes on Boards and ceo's and big shareholders in poison industries UNDERSTAND... they leave a legacy of destruction, and HEY their families might live in domes or something.
It's a problem for Government: they regulate the marketplace so don't go blaming the machine 🤔
 

HBS Guy

Head Honcho
Staff member
Crony capitalism, fucking lobbyists with free access to MPs, Ministers. Need to open the markets up, allow for innovation: microgrids one change being stifled by big power.
 

HBS Guy

Head Honcho
Staff member
We have steel and cement making, breweries, bakeries etc etc, a maker of EVs. Not as much as we should by industry setting up in China, neoliberalism again.
 

pinkeye

Wonder woman
In any case.. any new industry must be GREEN as possible. None of this BS about gas recovery etc blah blah. We really need to do MORE, but I fear it really is ALL TOO LATE.

That damage we have already done means we will never see the Earth of 20 years ago, ever again.

We will fail and the earth will prevail.

We are just a blink in time.
 
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HBS Guy

Head Honcho
Staff member
Neoliberalism is a corruption of capitalism where governments arrange for the managers (CEOs etc) and owners of capital to be given more and more of the assets of the state through unsustainably huge tax cuts (the Howard/Costello squandering of a once-in-a-lifetime boom hamstringing future budgets) and privatisation of public assets with consequent price rises for the users of that service (e.g. the electricity sector.) To make privatisations feasible to the electorate such service is first defunded so it cannot reliably carry out its functions when privatisation is promoted as the cure.

Moving industry from the home country to China is lauded tho product quality almost invariably suffers as does employment here.

To fund this shift of public wealth to private hands services and funding to the poor is invariably reduced. I think the Invalid Support Pension is no longer available to 99% of people who really need it, the dole has not been increased in real terms for decades.

Etc.

The Libs not only no longer care about Menzies’ “Forgotten People” they want 99% of the population to join them.
 

Squire

Active member
The quality of Australian manufactured products is a myth.

The philosophy of Australian car design and manufacture was 'a product to get you from point A to point B'.

A BHP project manager returned from a project visit and made the comment "it did not look cheap enough". The project was below budget and ahead of schedule. He did not care about quality or budget, he wanted it to look cheap.

https://www.motoring.com.au/australias-faultiest-cars-101691/

... According to a new Australian survey conducted by consumer advocacy group CHOICE, roughly two out of every three new Holden car buyer reported a fault with their vehicle.

The new survey was conducted to shine a light on how many faults are reported for various new car brands and how the faults are resolved by the car companies.

The survey sample was 1505 Australian drivers, who bought a new car between January 2011 and January 2016 and revealed that women were more likely to be denied a resolution to a fault than men.

While 68 per cent of Holden new car buyers reported a fault in the first four years – the highest percentage – Ford was not far behind with 65 per cent reporting issues. Luxury car brand Audi was third with 62 per cent of owners reporting problems. ...
 

Chuck

Active member
Neoliberalism is a corruption of capitalism where governments arrange for the managers (CEOs etc) and owners of capital to be given more and more of the assets of the state through unsustainably huge tax cuts (the Howard/Costello squandering of a once-in-a-lifetime boom hamstringing future budgets) and privatisation of public assets with consequent price rises for the users of that service (e.g. the electricity sector.) To make privatisations feasible to the electorate such service is first defunded so it cannot reliably carry out its functions when privatisation is promoted as the cure.

Moving industry from the home country to China is lauded tho product quality almost invariably suffers as does employment here.

To fund this shift of public wealth to private hands services and funding to the poor is invariably reduced. I think the Invalid Support Pension is no longer available to 99% of people who really need it, the dole has not been increased in real terms for decades.

Etc.

The Libs not only no longer care about Menzies’ “Forgotten People” they want 99% of the population to join them.
Neoliberalism is a corruption of capitalism where governments arrange for the managers (CEOs etc) and owners of capital to be given more and more of the assets of the state through unsustainably huge tax cuts ........and privatisation of public assets with consequent price rises for the users of that service (e.g. the electricity sector.)

QLD Labor party instead of privatising the generation industry, they at least Corporatised it, instructing these entities to rip consumers off as decreed by the Howard govt.... otherwise the State govt. would lose a portion off the GST funding?

But alas, the Labor Bettie and Bligh govt also had intentions of killing off govt owned entities by placing conditions on the generation companies which was aimed at stifling them bring competitive against the privately owned generators.

Generally, these politicians used to take well over 90% of the profits out off these govt owned generation companies!

Their aim was to kill off these units with the hope that private companies would fill this void!

Furthermore the Gillard govt. provided fundings to privately owned coal fired generators for pollution mitigation but refused to provide any financial assistance to govt owned or corporatised generators.

The modern day Labor isn’t the party of yesteryears but simply a slow motion Liberal party that is screwing the workers at a slower re-education pace.
 

pinkeye

Wonder woman
But back to the topic..

NO we cannot mitigate and turn back the clock on our pillaging of the Earth.
We are ALL, only NOW, coming to realise that our profligacy comes with a massive cost, to each and every one of us.

Covid-19 is just a step on that path we choose.
 

pinkeye

Wonder woman
Mother Earth will continue...
once we are severely de-populated we may seek to survive on a new path.. but you see everyone saying they want to get back to normal. NORMAL.

FUCK.
We have a choice here.

Whales are being seen in the greatest abundance in recorded history..?? BECAUSE ???


NO CRUISE SHIPS full of MORONS to scatter their calls to ????.. Could that POSSIBLY BE TRUE. ?🤔

we are such self- centred arseholes we still have people wanting to go cruising , yep and/or to fly across the world, say ? to the GREEK Islands for a holiday... the cunts with money. The touristas that people have to bear.... it sucks.. STAY HOME. I see nothing worth bragging about by being a tourista.

YOU all that have done this no doubt think you weren't like that. YOU were just enjoying your wealth and having a holiday.. big deal..! Yeah...

Like Venice ? Been there... ? Bangkok? Mumbai..?

YOU ALL MUST STOP. NO MORE cruises to get pissed and fucked on, for a couple of days.... No more PLEASE.

The creatures that live in the Ocean's of the World are dying from our pollution. Can we please STOP .. the easiest thing to do is STOP cruising , and then tackling the micro and macro-plastics .. I am glad I have NEVER been on a fucking cruise. It's poison for our Mother Earth.
 

MilesAway

Bongalong
Cruise ships are a product of too much money and boredom! These people are the same idiots who waste their life in hotels because most people in the western world get payed to do f all!
 

pinkeye

Wonder woman
It is called consumerism.

Shopping, cruising, o/s holidays are all othing but rampant and ugly consumerism.

Covid has been a BLESSING .
Venice no longer has huge multi-story ships in those fragile and ancient canals.. I bet the few remaining real Venetians,, that survive... are feeling like that are in the home they used to have.. before the HORDES od tourist descended.

I hope they trash and recycle all those ships.. I hope people finally realise they cannot do ANYTHING THEY WANT without HUGE harm.

The question? Are all humans like this.?

No they're NOT... BUT MONEY TALKS.

And even the less advantaged pile onto planes and ships, to say they've been to .......... too.
A false status.. a self-importance .. it is all bullshit.

People need to face reality.!!


NORMAL..???

No such thing is achievable. That is OLD time thinking.

We cannot undo the harm.. in fact we can't even really mitigate it, in the short-term. Think a couple of hundred years, if we live that long as a civilisation... 200 years of responsible acts by the humans....

I do NOT THINK that will happen.
 
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