Deniers’ Delight—Jacobshavn glacier

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Re: Deniers’ Delight—Jacobshavn glacier

Postby Bongalong » 02 Apr 2019, 15:17

I'm doing no more research: I take it your aim is true! (With a triple bunch of salt of course, ahahahahaha!!!)
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Re: Deniers’ Delight—Jacobshavn glacier

Postby HBS Guy » 02 Apr 2019, 15:55

No fucking way: do research, post it here! Nothing more important than that I reckon.

I broke down and had a look at the Dubyne MRB on OzPol. Booby, as expected, making a huge fuss about cold in Melbourne being. . .drum roll. . .{eldritch music}. . .being, well, the coldest since 2015. Twentyfuckingfifteen! Of course the whole summer, several months, here being the hottest on record, not mentioned.

This is the change in distribution of Australian max and min temperatures since 1950:

Image

(Global temperatures show a similar shift, these are nicer graphs.)

Look at the maximum temperatures. The difference between the 1950 and the recent temperature ditsributions is that the peak of the recent temperature graph is lower than the peak in 1950. I asked Booby what that meant—he had not a clue.

It means the temperature distribution is more dispersed, not clustering tightly around the mode or mean (temperature with the most observations or the average of the temperatures in the distribution. How have the temperatures moved? Look at the Max. Temp. curve.

The mean and mode have moved to the warm side and the curve for the latest distribution is skewed to the warm side—more observations on one side of the mean or mode, less on the other. Look at the two “tails” of the distribution, the parts between -2 to -4 and +2 to +4. The positive or warm tail is way bigger than the negative or cool tail. So Australia can expect more warmth, and more extreme warmth, more occasions of high maximum temperatures than it can expect lower maximum temperatures. In fact, the right hand side or warm tail shows we can expect lots more extreme heat events even if temperatures were to stabilise now. Something to think about.

Now let us have a look at the distribution of minimum temperatures. This curve, this distribution, has become tighter, less variation in cold events. Despite that, its righthand or warm “tail” is now also bigger than its cold tail. We do not get the cold we used to get.

Now Seth and Texan are champing at the bit to refute all that—what about the cold this winter in parts of Canada and CONUS they are screaming? That is due to AGW and Arctic Amplification of it weakening the Jet Stream and causing it to meander—a trough in the northern Jet Stream located over those parts of Canada and POTUS allowed Arctic air to move south into the parts covered by that bow. As a result of the cold air leaving the Arctic warmer air moved into the Arctic warming it—consequently the ice extent has started decreasing again.

Go to YouTube and search for videos by Dr Jennifer Francis—expert on the Jet Streams, really deserves a Nobel Prize for her work.

As I said, look at cold “records” mainly coldest since 3 years, 5 years, worst case coldest since the 1980s. Record warm temperatures, on the other hand, tend to be “hottest on record.”
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Re: Deniers’ Delight—Jacobshavn glacier

Postby Bongalong » 02 Apr 2019, 16:01

HBS Guy wrote:No fucking way: do research, post it here! Nothing more important than that I reckon.

I broke down and had a look at the Dubyne MRB on OzPol. Booby, as expected, making a huge fuss about cold in Melbourne being. . .drum roll. . .{eldritch music}. . .being, well, the coldest since 2015. Twentyfuckingfifteen! Of course the whole summer, several months, here being the hottest on record, not mentioned.

This is the change in distribution of Australian max and min temperatures since 1950:

Image

(Global temperatures show a similar shift, these are nicer graphs.)

Look at the maximum temperatures. The difference between the 1950 and the recent temperature ditsributions is that the peak of the recent temperature graph is lower than the peak in 1950. I asked Booby what that meant—he had not a clue.

It means the temperature distribution is more dispersed, not clustering tightly around the mode or mean (temperature with the most observations or the average of the temperatures in the distribution. How have the temperatures moved? Look at the Max. Temp. curve.

The mean and mode have moved to the warm side and the curve for the latest distribution is skewed to the warm side—more observations on one side of the mean or mode, less on the other. Look at the two “tails” of the distribution, the parts between -2 to -4 and +2 to +4. The positive or warm tail is way bigger than the negative or cool tail. So Australia can expect more warmth, and more extreme warmth, more occasions of high maximum temperatures than it can expect lower maximum temperatures. In fact, the right hand side or warm tail shows we can expect lots more extreme heat events even if temperatures were to stabilise now. Something to think about.

Now let us have a look at the distribution of minimum temperatures. This curve, this distribution, has become tighter, less variation in cold events. Despite that, its righthand or warm “tail” is now also bigger than its cold tail. We do not get the cold we used to get.

Now Seth and Texan are champing at the bit to refute all that—what about the cold this winter in parts of Canada and CONUS they are screaming? That is due to AGW and Arctic Amplification of it weakening the Jet Stream and causing it to meander—a trough in the northern Jet Stream located over those parts of Canada and POTUS allowed Arctic air to move south into the parts covered by that bow. As a result of the cold air leaving the Arctic warmer air moved into the Arctic warming it—consequently the ice extent has started decreasing again.

Go to YouTube and search for videos by Dr Jennifer Francis—expert on the Jet Streams, really deserves a Nobel Prize for her work.

As I said, look at cold “records” mainly coldest since 3 years, 5 years, worst case coldest since the 1980s. Record warm temperatures, on the other hand, tend to be “hottest on record.”

Don't f'n tell me to do endless research! --> bean counters are bean counters :hot :hot :hot :hot :hot :PC
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Re: Deniers’ Delight—Jacobshavn glacier

Postby HBS Guy » 02 Apr 2019, 16:05

It will be instructive to find some of Dr Francis’ work on YouTube. Unlike the grifter Dubyne she knows what she is talking about.
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Re: Deniers’ Delight—Jacobshavn glacier

Postby Bongalong » 02 Apr 2019, 16:13

HBS Guy wrote:It will be instructive to find some of Dr Francis’ work on YouTube. Unlike the grifter Dubyne she knows what she is talking about.

Yeh, well just call me Atlas! :B

Image
Last edited by Bongalong on 02 Apr 2019, 16:17, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Deniers’ Delight—Jacobshavn glacier

Postby HBS Guy » 02 Apr 2019, 16:16

Fucks sake, look at two of them at least!

Prof. Eric Rignot, glaciologist another genuine source of infor re Arctic, Antarctic and Greenland.
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Re: Deniers’ Delight—Jacobshavn glacier

Postby Bongalong » 02 Apr 2019, 16:18

HBS Guy wrote:Fucks sake, look at two of them at least!

Prof. Eric Rignot, glaciologist another genuine source of infor re Arctic, Antarctic and Greenland.

Why, i already believe you?

R u trying to chase me up a flaming pole mate??
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Re: Deniers’ Delight—Jacobshavn glacier

Postby HBS Guy » 02 Apr 2019, 18:17

What is happening to the Jet Stream is important. Even the Arctic vortex has been affected, splitting.
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Re: Deniers’ Delight—Jacobshavn glacier

Postby Bongalong » 03 Apr 2019, 18:18

I am very interested in what the dmi temp is doing today.... haven't looked it up yet!
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Re: Deniers’ Delight—Jacobshavn glacier

Postby Bongalong » 03 Apr 2019, 18:28

lol, check this out:
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

This is dated Tuesday the 2nd of April....

Looks very interesting going forward lol!
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Re: Deniers’ Delight—Jacobshavn glacier

Postby HBS Guy » 03 Apr 2019, 18:56

Yup.
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Re: Deniers’ Delight—Jacobshavn glacier

Postby Bongalong » 03 Apr 2019, 19:54

I don't think the arctic sea ice volume anomaly is good either.... :PC
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Re: Deniers’ Delight—Jacobshavn glacier

Postby HBS Guy » 03 Apr 2019, 23:20

Extent is a tad lower than huge El Nino year 2016!
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Re: Deniers’ Delight—Jacobshavn glacier

Postby HBS Guy » 03 Apr 2019, 23:23

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