Consequences of AGW

For scientific papers on AGW, record happenings in the Arctic and the Greenland, Himalayan and Antarctic icesheets. Also weatherstorms and higher than average rainfalls and other extreme weather events.

Re: Consequences of AGW

Postby HBS Guy » 12 Apr 2018, 18:38

Yeah, feel like building a large pond winding in and around my trees with fish growing in there, occasionally harvest the bigger fish to eat.

Be independent, almost at least, of the grid, use a cellar (or cellar-like space) to hold preserves, maturing booze etc, save seeds, keep chooks, even a lamb to keep grass down and be converted to chops etc before winter etc.

But we will take action, when it will cost more $$$ and more lives, to ward off AGW.
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Re: Consequences of AGW

Postby HBS Guy » 13 Apr 2018, 00:09

Some Australian climate scientists talk about their fears for the future:

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Re: Consequences of AGW

Postby Dax » 13 Apr 2018, 06:32

HBS Guy wrote:Yeah, feel like building a large pond winding in and around my trees with fish growing in there, occasionally harvest the bigger fish to eat.

Be independent, almost at least, of the grid, use a cellar (or cellar-like space) to hold preserves, maturing booze etc, save seeds, keep chooks, even a lamb to keep grass down and be converted to chops etc before winter etc.

But we will take action, when it will cost more $$$ and more lives, to ward off AGW.


I live in an earth covered home, 100m above sea level, which is 20m above the absolute sea level rise predicted and sits on a ledge. It's fully off grid and has been for a long time, have a glass house and aquaponics system, so am almost fully self sufficient in food. It doesn't need heating or cooling as it sits under 1.5m of soil. Don't eat animal products, other than organic chicken and fish and never buy any processed foods. All my food is organic and locally grown, haven't been in a coles or woolworths for many years, carry most of my food and when I need more, there is always locally grown food available in rural communities.

Same with fuel, run all my vehicles and machinery on vegetable oils, which produce 80% less emissions than fossils fuels and for me, free. Except when traveling, then sometimes have to pay for diesel, but that's rare and my mobile home carries close to 2000lt of oil which goes a long way.

Global warming is here, the only way to slow or stop it, it to stop emissions completely and that can only occur when there are no humans that refuse to change. I'm sure nature will remedy that situation in the coming years, but which ever way it goes, it's to late for the majority of humans, who are doomed.
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Re: Consequences of AGW

Postby HBS Guy » 13 Apr 2018, 08:42

Stopping emissions won’t be enough, we have to remove CO2 from the atmosphere.

Growing bamboo, much faster growing than trees, then harvesting the bamboo and turn it into flooring etc—permanent uses so locking up carbon permanently.
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Re: Consequences of AGW

Postby HBS Guy » 14 Apr 2018, 20:54

It seems the Gulf Stream is weakening:

Abstract
The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)—a system of ocean currents in the North Atlantic—has a major impact on climate, yet its evolution during the industrial era is poorly known owing to a lack of direct current measurements. Here we provide evidence for a weakening of the AMOC by about 3 ± 1 sverdrups (around 15 per cent) since the mid-twentieth century. This weakening is revealed by a characteristic spatial and seasonal sea-surface temperature ‘fingerprint’—consisting of a pattern of cooling in the subpolar Atlantic Ocean and warming in the Gulf Stream region—and is calibrated through an ensemble of model simulations from the CMIP5 project. We find this fingerprint both in a high-resolution climate model in response to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, and in the temperature trends observed since the late nineteenth century. The pattern can be explained by a slowdown in the AMOC and reduced northward heat transport, as well as an associated northward shift of the Gulf Stream. Comparisons with recent direct measurements from the RAPID project and several other studies provide a consistent depiction of record-low AMOC values in recent years.


https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0006-5

Oh good!
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Re: Consequences of AGW

Postby HBS Guy » 16 Apr 2018, 08:19

Melting of Arctic mountain glaciers unprecedented in the past 400 years.
Am. Geophysical Union. https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/04/180410132837.htm
New ice cores taken from the summit of Mt. Hunter in Denali National Park show summers there are least 1.2-2 degrees Celsius (2.2-3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than summers were during the 18th, 19th, and early 20th centuries. The warming at Mt. Hunter is about double the amount of warming that has occurred during the summer at areas at sea level in Alaska over the same time period, according to the new research.

They found melt events occur 57 times more frequently today than they did 150 years ago. In fact, they counted only four years with melt events prior to 1850. They also found the total amount of annual meltwater in the cores has increased 60-fold over the past 150 years.

They found during years with more melt events on Mt. Hunter, tropical Pacific temperatures were higher. The researchers suspect warmer temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean amplify warming at high elevations in the Arctic by changing air circulation patterns. Warmer tropics lead to higher atmospheric pressures and more sunny days over the Alaska Range, which contribute to more glacial melting in the summer, Winski said.

“This adds to the growing body of research showing that changes in the tropical Pacific can manifest in changes across the globe,” said Luke Trusel, a glaciologist at Rowan University in Glassboro, New Jersey who was not connected to the study. “It’s adding to the growing picture that what we’re seeing today is unusual.”


https://robertscribbler.com/2018/04/09/tesla-model-3-production-keeps-ramping-higher-hitting-near-2400-per-week-in-early-april/#comment-140541
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Re: Consequences of AGW

Postby HBS Guy » 16 Apr 2018, 09:33

Findlay believes that it will be farmers who end up absorbing the extra costs, rather than consumers. But this puts them at the mercy of the markets, and poor prices for their lambs later in the year could see some producers call it a day. “It’s been the worst and most challenging time that I can remember,” Findlay said. “It really started last summer, which was very wet and quite cool, and the autumn and winter have generally been very wet. Sheep can stand cold weather and they can stand wet weather but when there is a prolonged period of both, it really pulls them down. We would normally expect to lose 1% of the ewe flock in this winter period and we’ve probably lost 3% to 4%, despite our best efforts.”

What the farmers are experiencing first-hand accords with what scientists are finding. Ed Hawkins, professor of climate science at NCAS-Climate, University of Reading, who helps run http://www.WeatherRescue.org (https://www.zooniverse.org/projects/edh/weather-rescue/ risen by around 1.5 degrees in the last 150 years.

“It’s basic physics: warmer air can hold more moisture so, as the atmosphere warms, it means, when it does rain heavily, we get more rain than we would otherwise have done from the same storm 100 years ago.”

In the short term, farmers like Smith hope that the coming week’s warmer, drier conditions are going to stretch through April. In the longer term, he believes that the first three months of 2018 should sound alarm bells.

“We need to remember that it’s reckless to take food production for granted,” he said.


https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/apr/14/farmers-crops-livestock-turmoil-beast-from-east-climate-change

So the Beast from the East delayed the start of the sowing season (and asparagus harvesting season) but British farmers get more rain in shorter periods and then have longer drier periods—longer term problems.

Chances of another Beast from the East? Pretty good, I have to say, warm air incursions into the Arctic winter are a growing trend, it seems. Of course, next winter the Arctic Air may get pushed elsewhere. So British and European farmers might need more buildings to shelter stock from the cold winter and cold wet spring. Other farming practices may need to change too.

Here too, with the south warming and drying changes are needed too. Wheat may not always be possible, the south might move more into animal production—rangelands.
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Re: Consequences of AGW

Postby Dax » 17 Apr 2018, 08:12

This is an interesting claim and may be aligned with the prediction of an cold violent winter

"Wild storms, harsh winds and violent blizzards are expected to dominate the New South Wales coast this winter.

Winter's stormy start is set to begin this weekend with a series of cold fronts crossing southeastern Australia bringing widespread damaging winds, bursts of showers and blizzards.

Intense low-pressure systems, or east coast lows, are unique to Australia's weather patterns, bringing gales and storm force winds formed in the Tasman Sea across the south-east coast."

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... inter.html
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Re: Consequences of AGW

Postby HBS Guy » 17 Apr 2018, 12:17

Doesn’t really say who made the forecast, maybe the journo?

We will see.

Antarctica could lob a “weatherbomb” or severe low pressure system at us too.
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Re: Consequences of AGW

Postby Dax » 17 Apr 2018, 12:47

When you consider the amount of fake news going round, who knows what is right and what it wrong. I certainly don't and expect the time will come, where we will not have a clue what the weather is doing, until it hits us in the face.

The fires in Sydney this week, are an indicator of what is ahead and when you add infrastructure is breaking down, it will be chaos in cities as nature attacks them from all directions. Those living in cities have no idea, when things go wrong, they will have no way of getting out to some form of safety. Roads are already clogged up, so it will not be long before we see an unbelievable disaster in Aus cities. Which is why I say, cities are doomed over the next few years, because of growing global warming.
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Re: Consequences of AGW

Postby pinkeye » 17 Apr 2018, 23:41

Oh yes I agree.

I think it likely to happen sooner than predicted , as have all the other factors relevant to survival.
The rate of climate change will increase. And its impacts will be both macro and micro.

Did you hear about the NEW flesh-eating bacteria that is starting to increase alarmingly, in Victoria.?
First noted in the 90's in sth Gippsland, it has since spread along the southern seaboard. It is apparently, unlike anything microbiologists have seen before. The video of the wounds was shocking. it has increased more than 400% in prevalence, in the last 2 yrs ( says the news item, ) and it's virulence has increased also, in this short time-frame. Scientists have no answers.

Are you ready people.?

No..? some of us.. like Dax .. are preparing to fight to the death. And that is what it will be.

Do we exit with a whimper or a bang.?

Does it matter.?
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Re: Consequences of AGW

Postby HBS Guy » 18 Apr 2018, 09:07

We exit with a bang. Nuclear war over the remains of the Himalayan ice sheet between India and China.

Like I said, it will be realised almost too late that AGW is real. Total war will need to be waged to combat AGW.

But there are trends like renewable energy being cheaper than coal, with EVs being cheaper to own over the life of the vehicle (recharge at home from solar panels, less servicing needed—the ICE really is a Rube Goldberg sort of machine. Once enough EVs are out there, like in a couple of years, people will see the fantastic acceleration EVs have (0–60 in 2point something seconds.) With more buying and driving EVs batteries will continue to improve meaning EVs get better meaning. . .
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Re: Consequences of AGW

Postby Dax » 18 Apr 2018, 10:28

This article gives a brief indication of what is ahead for city dwellers and no amount of denial will change anything.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... tages.html

"Sydneysiders have been cruelly reminded of their upcoming morning commute as trains across the city suffer massive delays due to 'external power supply issues'.

Saturday's out-of-control bushfires have also impacted some train services travelling through Holsworthy.

Between Sunday's delays and previously planned track work, nearly every line on the city's rail system has been effected."

A big problems most face is, Australian newspapers and media are controlled by supporters of the regime and only report what is good for the direction the corporate and ideological political world follows. So you will find it rare to find many real stories in Aus media and get a much better reflection of what is rally going on from media not controlled by the political system.

The flesh eating bacteria has been around since the year dot, today the diets of humans is so disgusting and immune system destroying, it can develop easily. The more the planet heats, so more and more disease and bacteria will breed and evolve within human bodies, which are saturated with chemicals, fats and denatured foods.

Epidemics in the past have been created by the same methods, back them it was disgusting loving conditions, filth, contaminated water and the consumption of red meats and dairy products. Global warming is facilitating the evolution of disease and creating conditions for the growth and incubation of deadly viruses.

There may well have a nuclear war, how big is anyones guess. Hopefully nature will create such a problem for humanity, all the fools will be to busy coping to create nuclear war and it will probably be a small nuclear war. Unless someone like Trump, Putin or the idiot chinese moron, goes crazy and fires of their arsenal.

If that happens, along with global warming we may see the demise of the entire human population and most other life. My aim, is to hang around to see the collapse, outcome and what happens next, if possible.
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Re: Consequences of AGW

Postby HBS Guy » 18 Apr 2018, 12:11

My aim is to talk about AGW till the cows come home, grow old disgracefully and die before all the nasties start happening.

I have a feeling my greatniece will love being left my house—things will be hot in summer on the mainland by then.
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Re: Consequences of AGW

Postby Dax » 18 Apr 2018, 14:09

If you're older than me, you may die before the shit hits the fan, if younger, then you will be a part of it. Who knows when the really big collapse will come, but there will be lots of medium catastrophes well before the big events. We are already seeing them, in small doses, each year, or even month very soon may see lots of happenings that will drive humans to the wall of insanity and despair, if they are not prepared psychologically. As most humans live in a dream world of fantasy security, they will not be able to adapt to the constant and dramatic rapid change that will occur. Should be n interesting time, you'll need a strong mind to cope and have safe places to hide away from the chaos.
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Re: Consequences of AGW

Postby HBS Guy » 18 Apr 2018, 16:59

I may see 2050, just, Mum’s side of the family is long–lived, Mum is 97 with just some dementia/senility.
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Re: Consequences of AGW

Postby pinkeye » 19 Apr 2018, 23:01

Dax wrote:
HBS Guy wrote:Yeah, feel like building a large pond winding in and around my trees with fish growing in there, occasionally harvest the bigger fish to eat.

Be independent, almost at least, of the grid, use a cellar (or cellar-like space) to hold preserves, maturing booze etc, save seeds, keep chooks, even a lamb to keep grass down and be converted to chops etc before winter etc.

But we will take action, when it will cost more $$$ and more lives, to ward off AGW.


I live in an earth covered home, 100m above sea level, which is 20m above the absolute sea level rise predicted and sits on a ledge. It's fully off grid and has been for a long time, have a glass house and aquaponics system, so am almost fully self sufficient in food. It doesn't need heating or cooling as it sits under 1.5m of soil. Don't eat animal products, other than organic chicken and fish and never buy any processed foods. All my food is organic and locally grown, haven't been in a coles or woolworths for many years, carry most of my food and when I need more, there is always locally grown food available in rural communities.

Same with fuel, run all my vehicles and machinery on vegetable oils, which produce 80% less emissions than fossils fuels and for me, free. Except when traveling, then sometimes have to pay for diesel, but that's rare and my mobile home carries close to 2000lt of oil which goes a long way.

Global warming is here, the only way to slow or stop it, it to stop emissions completely and that can only occur when there are no humans that refuse to change. I'm sure nature will remedy that situation in the coming years, but which ever way it goes, it's to late for the majority of humans, who are doomed.



Well, good on you. You sound as prepared as possible.

Most of us, or our off-spring, are not/ will not be as prepared. I wonder though... can anything you do save your clan.? Humans are going to find out, in a big way, and really really to their detriment, that NATURE is bigger than all of us. Our hubris WILL be punished.
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