Australian Energy Market

[HBS Guy]

Jess Irvine asks and answers nine questions about the energy crisis.

http://www.smh.com.au/comment/energy-crisis-the-9-questions-you-were-too-embarrassed-to-ask-20170318-gv13jd.html

[Lefty]

Shell makes a token gesture

Seems unlikely to make much difference if any, it only amounts to a small percentage of what we need set aside and there's no guarantee it won't be just as expensive. We are swimming in gas, we don't need more of it we just need it to be returned to affordable prices for households, generation and industry.

[HBS Guy]

Yup.

Weatherill at least has said Moomba gas has to be made available for Adelaide, a start anyway. Nothing will happen federally until after the next election.

[Lefty]

SA government should have a fair bit of say-so when it comes to extracting gas from fields inside the sovereign state of SA?

The fed may collect the PRRT but surely the Moomba gas reserve always remains the sovereign property of the government (people) of SA?

If the SA government wants to dictate a reservation policy on what it surely owns, I'm sure it could do so.

[HBS Guy]

PRRT is for offshore oil/gas wells—being outside a state there would not be any royalties due.

[Lefty]

Do they collect it on gas extracted from onshore reserves belonging to the states if it gets exported?

[Lefty]

Victoria warned of power shortfall risk after Hazelwood shuts down

Victoria's energy security has been thrown into question, with the state facing an unprecedented 72 days of possible power supply shortfalls over the next two years following the shutdown of the Hazelwood plant next week.

Australia's electricity grid operator has warned that the looming shutdown of the ageing plant, which supplies up to a quarter of the state's power, could lead to breaches of the minimum energy reliability benchmark next summer.

Its data shows 72 days of potential power "reserve shortfall".

While the prediction does not mean Victoria is facing imminent blackouts, it does highlight the risks to the state's power supply as the Andrews government prepares for next year's election, with toxic state-federal relations and energy policy uncertainty blamed for inhibiting new investment.

The figures, from the Australian Energy Market Operator, also highlight the extent to which Victoria and South Australia will be critically reliant on imported power from NSW and to some extent Tasmania, with no guarantees it will be available.

As stated, this does not necessarily mean that there will be widespread blackouts (though it remains a possibility). What it does mean is that with the removal of a large chunk of generation capacity, privately-owned players in the dysfunctional NEM will have even more incentive to gouge, further straining household and industrial user power costs. Gas-dependant - industries hit by a double-whammy of spiralling gas input costs and electricity costs may simply decide it's no longer viable to manufacture in Australia, leading to thousands of job losses and dumbing down our self-reliance capacity even further.

[HBS Guy]

And Hazelwood is not the only aging plant to shut down over the next few years. Vic might have to follow SA and grab what is left of Bass Strait gas. This is the result of abbott reducing the RET and of the privatisation idiocy.

[Lefty]

And Hazelwood is not the only aging plant to shut down over the next few years. Vic might have to follow SA and grab what is left of Bass Strait gas. This is the result of abbott reducing the RET and of the privatisation idiocy.

Hmm - can Victoria do that or does the fed have more say so here, given that the Victorian reserves are actually offshore in the Bass straight?

[HBS Guy]

Don’t know to be honest, some wells might be in state waters.

[HBS Guy]

Plenty more Vic brown coal generators to close. I doubt there are any plans for replacements.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-24/hazelwood-latrobe-valley-not-the-first-or-the-last-to-close/8380760

[HBS Guy]

Solar battery trial for “fringe of grid:”

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-24/experimental-solar-battery-could-take-regional-towns-off-grid/8383900

I do NOT know why Kangaroo Isl does not have a windfarm there: they are at the end of a looong line from Adelaide and Backstairs Passage is THE best place for wind power!

[Lefty]

Plenty more Vic brown coal generators to close. I doubt there are any plans for replacements.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-24/hazelwood-latrobe-valley-not-the-first-or-the-last-to-close/8380760

Hmm - I see that the owners of Hazelwood are the same mob (Engie) that didn't feel like turning on the Pelican Point gas generator when it was critical to do so, leading to the last wave of power failures in SA.

[Lefty]

From the article.....

Ironically, in the short-term, Yallourn W should be hugely profitable. Since Engie announced Hazelwood's closure last November power prices have almost trebled.

Even though the lights will stay on — the market regulator says there is enough power in the system to guarantee energy security — the energy market has tightened considerably. So much so that the futures price for wholesale power has increased from $54 per megawatt hour in December to more than $140 per megawatt hour now.

Engie also owns a number of others.

There is indeed plenty of spare generating capacity within the system - but as we recently saw, foreign-based multinationals don't necessarily feel enough commitment to Australia to supply it immediately upon demand.

Further, a good whack of this spare capacity is in gas. For good reason - when there is a demand emergency, gas-fired generators can be fired up and brought online very, very quickly. But gas is now extremely expensive thanks to the failure of Australia to understand that if you allow a cartel to form, it WILL hold the country to ransom.

[HBS Guy]

Privatisation of energy has been a total disaster.

Maybe WA had learned a lesson from SA’s experience and that (helped) boot the Libs decisively?

[Lefty]

The pointless stupidity of privatizing essential services continues to be demonstrated.......

Households facing 'price spike' as regulator loses key court case

[HBS Guy]

[url]The Australian was told the ­report warns of a shortfall [in despatchable electricity] that will worsen over the next decade as old coal-fired power stations are closed and the east coast grid loses huge amounts of “dispatch­able” electricity that has been supplied for decades regardless of weather conditions or the time of day.

The government is determined to fix the “dispatchability” issue as well as the “clean energy” demands that come with its stated commitment to meet internat­ional targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Driving the agenda is advice to government on the planned closure of the Liddell power station in NSW in 2022 and Vales Point in NSW in 2028. Those closures would take 3200 megawatt hours out of the east coast grid, double the capacity lost when Victoria’s Hazelwood power station shut down in April.[/url]

4.8GWhours is bloody significant! More to come tho:

http://cdn.thinglink.me/api/image/961374298277150721/1024/10/scaletowidth#tl-961374298277150721;1043138249'

Some of the findings counter a push from Coalition MPs for a mammoth investment in a new coal-fired power station in Queensland, using more efficient “ultra supercritical” technology being rolled out in Asia.

A new coal-power station would take seven to eight years to build and could face fierce competition from wind and solar by the time it starts generating, given the steady fall in the cost of ­producing renewable energy. The ­expansion of an existing coal-fired power station is seen as a more ­viable option to add baseload power as quickly as possible.

Liberal National Party MP David Littleproud is calling for the expansion of the Kogan Creek power station in his Queensland electorate of Maranoa, a supercritical generator that is linked to a nearby coal mine and could be ramped up from its existing ­capacity of 700 megawatt hours.

The government is also alive to the potential of new solar farms, given advice that a new facility with a capacity of 800 megawatt hours could be rolled out in less than a year. The latest solar photovoltaic panels can produce 50 per cent more electricity at the same cost as earlier technology, while being combined with battery storage to guarantee reliability.

The government believes the Snowy Hydro scheme expansion can increase its capacity by 50 per cent to 3500 megawatt hours or more, turning a huge amount of solar or other renewable power into baseload electricity to be switched on as needed. While this could take up to six years, the project would add capacity quicker than a new coal-power station.

Longer term the Snowy will have less water to turn the turbines as the southern half of the country dries out. A scheme on Qld rivers will be needed‚ very long term yet we need to plan NOW (survey, buy land for reservoirs etc.)

Neanderthal speaking:

Mr Frydenberg said the report would show that there would have to be “sufficient dispatchability” in the network and that coal was a way to achieve this. “The cheapest form of existing power generation comes from existing coal,” he told Sky News. “It’s also a stable, reliable form of dispatchable power. So if we can keep our coal-fired power stations going for longer then that can provide a good outcome for Australian consumers. We recognise that we need coal in our system and we will ensure that that continues to be the case.”

Renewable energy becoming cheaper than coal, not in Liberal “minds” I guess. We had coal in grand daddy’s day. . . sort of crap.

The latest Newspoll survey highlights the community divide on energy, with 45 per cent of voters expecting an increase in their bills from the shift to renewables while 22 per cent anticipate a ­decrease and 24 per cent expect no change. In a warning sign to the government, 60 per cent of ­Coalition voters believe renewables will increase their bills. Only 31 per cent of Labor voters and 31 per cent of Greens voters believe the same. Voters also appear to be turning against the idea of paying higher bills to use renewable power, with 49 per cent saying they would pay “nothing” extra — up from 45 per cent in February and 44 per cent last October.

While 25 per cent said they were willing to pay $100 a year more for renewable power, this was down from 26 per cent in February and 28 per cent last October. Opinions are divided along party lines, with 59 per cent of ­Coalition voters refusing to pay more for renewable power compared with 38 per cent of Labor voters and 25 per cent of Greens voters.

Will pay in one form or another, just ask the citizens of Houston (and Bangladesh, India, Nepal, and Sierra Leone.)

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/bill-shock-looms-amid-baseload-power-crisis/news-story/d64617bd271dd4b5d29cf371a93a185b

A rare link indeed to the national shit sheet! But a good article on a very current topic!

(Google “business/mining-energy/bill-shock-looms-amid-baseload-power-crisis/news-story/d64617bd271dd4b5d29cf371a93a185b” and click on the first link to see the article.

[HBS Guy]

Contrary to what the idiot troglodyte branch of the Libs say, renewables are now cheaper than fossil fuels!

http://reneweconomy.com.au/nectar-farms-on-100-renewables-why-would-you-do-it-any-other-way-79279/

Just one case study.

The new owner of the Whyalla steelworks is also investing in renewable energy.

One seriously out of step Lib govt (Nats are even worse!)

[HBS Guy]

Policy poverty of the Libs:

AGL chief executive Andy Vesey has issued a stinging rebuke to Malcolm Turnbull and Tony Abbott over the future of one of Australia’s oldest coal-fired power stations.

During Question Time on Thursday, Mr Turnbull revealed that in response to warnings that the energy market was facing imminent shortfalls, the government was “already” in talks with AGL to keep the Liddell coal-fired power station operating until at least 2027.

Former PM Tony Abbott also welcomed the news, tweeting that it was “good that AGL is no longer getting out of coal”.

But minutes later, Mr Vesey took to Twitter to respond, telling Mr Abbott: “We’re getting out of coal. We committed to the closure of the Liddell power station in 2022, the end of its operating life.”

“Keeping old coal plants open won’t deliver the reliable, affordable energy our customers need.”

http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2017/09/05/agl-liddell-turnbull-abbott/

All that is needed to restore energy prices to reasonable levels is a sound, well thought out policy on renewables and some real action on gas exports. All turdfull cares about tho, the gutless wonder, is keeping his rightwing happy.

[HBS Guy]

What a turd turdfull is:

As soon as that report landed, the prime minister confirmed the government was in talks with AGL over the future of the Liddell power plant. Malcolm Turnbull said he wanted the power plant to remain open for another five years.

Unfortunately for the prime minister, the chief executive of AGL, Andy Vesey, went public with a different version of events.

Given Vesey wasn’t exactly on message, Turnbull then went out a bit later in the evening to tell reporters what the AGL boss was (apparently) saying in private. The prime minister told reporters AGL was happy to sell Liddell, and that’s what the discussion was actually about: someone buying Liddell and keeping it operating for five years after 2022.

Turnbull told reporters on Wednesday night it was better if a private sector operator bought the ageing plant, but he also didn’t rule out the government buying the plant if push came to shove. (Yipee, say taxpayers everywhere).

The government will meet with Vesey next Monday to thrash all this out

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2017/sep/06/malcolm-turnbull-says-agl-wants-to-sell-the-liddell-power-plant-politics-live

Thank FUCK the idiot will be tipped out of govt, probably next year.

Dual citizen but still Senator Canavan adds to the idiocy:

Verballing the head of AGL, telling porkies about what was said and having Canavan call AGL “the biggest hypocrite walking around Australia” and troll Mr Vesy on Twitter is not going to improve the situation or help the outcome of next week’s meeting.

http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/agl-biggest-hypocrite-says-senator/news-story/22148d52da1f5bd46a77bde0e0ec452c

[HBS Guy]

Worth reading:

http://www.afr.com/news/four-things-we-learned-from-aemo-today-20170905-gyb9qc

[HBS Guy]

turdfull and his silly idea of extending the life of Liddel coal fired power station. AGL doesn’t want to do that or to sell it to some idiots who think they can economically extend its life (more like, run it past its due closing date—dangerous!) Now GE who built the power plant reckons there are much better candidates for increased efficiency.

http://www.afr.com/news/politics/liddell-a-poor-candidate-for-a-costly-coal-lifeline-20170905-gybn15

What you get when politics not considered policy drives action. We really do need to sweep the present shambles from power!

Another link explaining what AGL wants to do:
http://www.afr.com/business/why-vesey-cant-sell-liddell-20170906-gyc2bo

It is behind the paywall—hit the cross next to the URL window quick enough (don’t let the download go to completion) and you can read the article.

[HBS Guy]

Simon Holmes Acourt on those diesel generators in SA & Vic

http://reneweconomy.com.au/frydenberg-factcheck-s-really-burning-80000l-diesel-hour-keep-lights-84966/

[HBS Guy]

AMEO is putting itself on a collision course with the government by promoting a ‘fast change” model that would reduce electricity generation emissions at twice the rate proposed by the Turnbull policy:

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/australias-energy-operator-proposes-fast-change-scenario-to-cut-emissions-by-52-per-cent-by-2030-20180123-h0mp6x.html

[HBS Guy]

AMEO is putting itself on a collision course with the government by promoting a ‘fast change” model that would reduce electricity generation emissions at twice the rate proposed by the Turnbull policy:

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/australias-energy-operator-proposes-fast-change-scenario-to-cut-emissions-by-52-per-cent-by-2030-20180123-h0mp6x.html