A special telephone Morgan Poll, conducted over the last six nights (December 4-9, 2009) shows the ALP (53%, unchanged since December 2/3, 2009) maintaining its two-party preferred lead over the L-NP (47%, unchanged), but slightly increasing its primary vote (42%, up 1%) at the expense of the L-NP (41.5%, down 1.5%).
Looking at the minor parties shows support for the Greens was 9.5% (down 1%), Family First, unchanged at 1.5% and Independents/ Others 5.5% (up 1.5%).
On a two-party preferred basis the ALP 53% (unchanged) retains a lead over the L-NP 47% (unchanged).
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is now at 123 (up 2pts) with 52.5% (down 1.5%) of Australians confident that Australia is ‘heading in the right direction,’ compared to 29.5% (down 3.5%) that say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction.’
The weekly Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for December 5/6, 2009 is 126.8, up 3.6 points.
Gary Morgan says:
“This week’s telephone Morgan Poll taken after the Coalition formally rejected the Rudd Government’s amended Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme — shows support for the major parties unchanged with the ALP maintaining a two-party preferred lead of (53% cf. 47%) over the L-NP.”
“A small rise in ALP primary support (42%, up 1%) is accompanied by rises in both the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating (126.8, up 3.6pts) and Government Confidence (123, up 2pts). Rises in these indicators usually lead to a strengthening in support for the Government of the day.
“Results from the telephone Morgan Poll also reveal a deepening split between ALP & L-NP supporters about the issue of Global warming with 69% (up 5% since November 2009) of ALP supporters saying that ‘If we don’t act now it will be too late’ while 51% (up 5%) of L-NP supporters say that ‘Concerns are exaggerated.’”
Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?”
This telephone Morgan Poll was conducted on the evenings of December 4-9, 2009, with an Australia-wide cross section of 493 electors. Of all electors 5.5% (up 2.5%) did not name a Party.
This week’s Essential Report comes in with the primaries running 46 (steady) /35 (up 1) to Labor, washing out into a two party preferred of 58/42 the same way. The Greens are on 10 (up 1) while the broad “Others” come in on 9 (down 2). This comes from a two week rolling sample of 1875, giving us an MoE that maxes out around the 2.3% mark.
The latest face-to-face Morgan Poll conducted last weekend, December 5/6 & 12/13, 2009, shows the ALP (59%, up 0.5% since the last face-to-face poll conducted on November 28/29, 2009) maintaining a strong two-party preferred lead over the L-NP (41%, down 0.5%).
The ALP primary vote 49% (up 2%) remains well ahead of the L-NP (35.5%, up 0.5%), while looking at the minor parties shows support for the Greens (8%, down 1.5%), Family First (1.5%, down 1.5%) and Independents/ Others (6%, up 0.5%).
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is now at 136.5 (up 3pts) with 59.5% (up 2%) of Australians confident that Australia is ‘heading in the right direction,’ compared to 23% (down 1%) that say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction.’
The weekly Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for December 12/13, 2009 is 122.4, down 0.8 points over the period of interviewing for this poll.
Gary Morgan says:
“Today’s first face-to-face Morgan Poll taken since Tony Abbott became the new Opposition Leader shows little change to the two-party preferred vote with the ALP (59%, up 0.5% from November 28/29, 2009) maintaining a strong lead over the Opposition (41%, down 0.5%).
“Although early indications from the Morgan telephone poll last week suggested Mr. Abbott would make a difference to the L-NP’s support, today’s face-to-face Morgan Poll shows Australians’ voting intentions have not been strongly influenced in either way by the election of Abbott to the Liberal Leadership.
“The next month, when most Australians will be enjoying their holidays and not paying close attention to the nation’s politics, gives the Opposition some time to unite behind their new leader and develop a policy platform to take to next year’s Federal Election.”
Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?”
This face-to-face Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted on the weekend of December 5/6 & 12/13, 2009, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,867 electors. Of all electors surveyed, 3.5% (up 0.5%) did not name a party.
Polls before and after Tony Abbott’s elevation.
Newspoll prior 57/43 post 56/44
Essential prior 58/42 post 58/42, 58/42
Morgan FTF prior 58.5/41.5 post 59/41
Wishing for an impact isn’t the same as achieving one.
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