Poll Tracking

[HBS Guy]

6 Dec 09

Newspoll
56-44 Rock steady, the honeymoon continues

http://mumble.com.au/

Not much of a bounce for Tony but it is late so read the article for yourself.

Dear God! The ABC headline is "Abbot reaps poll bounce" but the Lib's primary is 34%, EIGHT fucking points below what they need to have a chance of winning office! Dead cat bounce anyone? He got a tiny bounce in PPM, but all new Oppn Leaders get that, pretty much.

Possum--no New Opposition Leader bounce. Also mentions the very low undecideds in Abbott's PPM figures--the electorate knows him and is unimpressed.

[HBS Guy]

Essential Research 58:42 steady

Possum.

[HBS Guy]

A special telephone Morgan Poll, conducted over the last six nights (December 4-9, 2009) shows the ALP (53%, unchanged since December 2/3, 2009) maintaining its two-party preferred lead over the L-NP (47%, unchanged), but slightly increasing its primary vote (42%, up 1%) at the expense of the L-NP (41.5%, down 1.5%).

Looking at the minor parties shows support for the Greens was 9.5% (down 1%), Family First, unchanged at 1.5% and Independents/ Others 5.5% (up 1.5%).

On a two-party preferred basis the ALP 53% (unchanged) retains a lead over the L-NP 47% (unchanged).

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is now at 123 (up 2pts) with 52.5% (down 1.5%) of Australians confident that Australia is ‘heading in the right direction,’ compared to 29.5% (down 3.5%) that say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction.’

The weekly Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for December 5/6, 2009 is 126.8, up 3.6 points.

Gary Morgan says:

“This week’s telephone Morgan Poll taken after the Coalition formally rejected the Rudd Government’s amended Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme — shows support for the major parties unchanged with the ALP maintaining a two-party preferred lead of (53% cf. 47%) over the L-NP.”

“A small rise in ALP primary support (42%, up 1%) is accompanied by rises in both the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating (126.8, up 3.6pts) and Government Confidence (123, up 2pts). Rises in these indicators usually lead to a strengthening in support for the Government of the day.

“Results from the telephone Morgan Poll also reveal a deepening split between ALP & L-NP supporters about the issue of Global warming with 69% (up 5% since November 2009) of ALP supporters saying that ‘If we don’t act now it will be too late’ while 51% (up 5%) of L-NP supporters say that ‘Concerns are exaggerated.’”



Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?”

This telephone Morgan Poll was conducted on the evenings of December 4-9, 2009, with an Australia-wide cross section of 493 electors. Of all electors 5.5% (up 2.5%) did not name a Party.

http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2009/4450/

Not much of a bounce for Tone then

Ummm 493 electors? Why the fuck did they bother?

[Lefty]

Despite all the dribblings in the right-wing media concerning "Abbot's army" (of arseholes) the polls consistently show that the fibs remain solidly on track for a hiding at the coming election (unless there is a massive swing in the next six months). The assistant editior of the opposition orifice admitted as much yesterday but I could't be bothered tracking down the link because it's currently so fucking obvious.

With his boxing skills, Abbot looks likely to deliver a facefull of uppercuts and a shirtfull of broken ribs - to himself and his party.

Australians have watched the powerfull, advanced economies of the world nearly disintigrate in the GFC while Australia's economy continues to weather the storm under Labor better than nearly anywhere else. That is one helluva mountain for any opposition to scale.

Abbot is gaffe-prone as well - been punched around the ring too many times?

[HBS Guy]

This week’s Essential Report comes in with the primaries running 46 (steady) /35 (up 1) to Labor, washing out into a two party preferred of 58/42 the same way. The Greens are on 10 (up 1) while the broad “Others” come in on 9 (down 2). This comes from a two week rolling sample of 1875, giving us an MoE that maxes out around the 2.3% mark.

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/20 ... approvals/

No bounce, not even Truffle's dead cat bounce! goooooooood choice, Libs, NOT!!!!! ahahahahahahahahahahaha

[Lefty]

Some of the more level-headed right-wing commenters have admitted that the fibs are in trouble. The utterly predictable by-election results have not changed that one bit. Unless there are some pretty major changes between now and the election, the fibs are on a hiding to nothing with Labor likely to hold 100 seats +.

I think they made a little bit of a mistake in stabbing Turnbull.

[HBS Guy]

Yeah.

i would love to see Labor not have to rely on Greens + Mr X + Brain damaged Christian to get stuff through! Something where Labor is not in control of Senate (that way hubris lies e.g. WorstChoices) but can negotiate sensibly with either Greens or Libs or Nats or something.

[HBS Guy]

From the Essential report:

Tony Abbott’s Approval 34% Disapproval 36% Don’t know 31%

He’s already in negative territory.

[Lefty]

hehehehe, on that note I'll go to bed

night JM

[HBS Guy]

Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor in SA

Redmond is doing better in terms of approval/disapproval than the inept Martin Hamilton-Smith but still have not made any headway in terms of voting intentions or better Premier.

NSW will be a wipeout, Greens might even win a couple of seats. Why couldn't the Libs have won the last election?

I think the NSW ALP should have left Reese in charge, not switched to the puppet of all the corrupt elements of the ALP there, Tripodi, Obeid, MacDonald etc.

[Lefty]

And unless she kicks some pretty major goals, Anna is gone here in Queensland.

[HBS Guy]

Nah, still has 2.5 years and long trousers and the Borg are pathetic!

[Lefty]

Primaries 35:43 LNP favour
TPP 46:54 LNP favour

Ironically, I think the biggest issue is the privatisation of state assets. Ironic because the fibs are the party of privatisation and deregulation - they seem pretty cagey regarding their position on this. They are knocking the Bligh government for selling assets against the will of the people but they are making their own position less than clear. I wonder why

[Senexx]

Scarily I understand the States privatising things now.

States are revenue constrained.

[Lefty]

The states are revenue constrained but their chances of being forced to default are still fairly remote - they have the legal power to raise tax revenue.

[Senexx]

Either way we will complain, it is a lose-lose situation.

[Lefty]

It is - and I have a feeling that some time down the track, the state and federal governments will be forced to buy it back for more than it was sold and spend more money patching it up after the private operator, free of real competition runs it into the ground and fucks off with his pockets bulging with money.

[HBS Guy]

Alas that often happens. Telstra sold, did fuckall investment in the network and we have to spend $25Bn building a new network!

[Lefty]

All because of a misguided belief that everything the government does, the private sector will always do better.

That's not a fact, it's an attitude - and a completely mistaken one at that.

[HBS Guy]

Water here was privatised, we were told (I never believed that) that the succesful tenderer (which lodged its tender LATE!) would replace all the old watermains.

Pig's arse they did! Now our mains burst every other weej. they must laugh at us, in their castles in the Thames Valley

[Lefty]

The fuckin arseholes.

Private water retailer tried to arse-rape us here as well - that had a monopoly position that they could exploit to the hilt. State govt had to step in. Shouldn't have flogged a monopoly to the private sector anyway.

night JM

[HBS Guy]

Nighters Lefty.

[HBS Guy]

Hey ho, Rudd's honeymoon continues on 3 years later:

The latest face-to-face Morgan Poll conducted last weekend, December 5/6 & 12/13, 2009, shows the ALP (59%, up 0.5% since the last face-to-face poll conducted on November 28/29, 2009) maintaining a strong two-party preferred lead over the L-NP (41%, down 0.5%).

The ALP primary vote 49% (up 2%) remains well ahead of the L-NP (35.5%, up 0.5%), while looking at the minor parties shows support for the Greens (8%, down 1.5%), Family First (1.5%, down 1.5%) and Independents/ Others (6%, up 0.5%).

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is now at 136.5 (up 3pts) with 59.5% (up 2%) of Australians confident that Australia is ‘heading in the right direction,’ compared to 23% (down 1%) that say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction.’

The weekly Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for December 12/13, 2009 is 122.4, down 0.8 points over the period of interviewing for this poll.

Gary Morgan says:

“Today’s first face-to-face Morgan Poll taken since Tony Abbott became the new Opposition Leader shows little change to the two-party preferred vote with the ALP (59%, up 0.5% from November 28/29, 2009) maintaining a strong lead over the Opposition (41%, down 0.5%).

“Although early indications from the Morgan telephone poll last week suggested Mr. Abbott would make a difference to the L-NP’s support, today’s face-to-face Morgan Poll shows Australians’ voting intentions have not been strongly influenced in either way by the election of Abbott to the Liberal Leadership.

“The next month, when most Australians will be enjoying their holidays and not paying close attention to the nation’s politics, gives the Opposition some time to unite behind their new leader and develop a policy platform to take to next year’s Federal Election.”

Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?”

This face-to-face Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted on the weekend of December 5/6 & 12/13, 2009, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,867 electors. Of all electors surveyed, 3.5% (up 0.5%) did not name a party.

Good sized survey! So Abbot didn't even get the dead cat bounce Truffles did. Face to face surveys like this get different results to phone surveys: young people may not have a land line and so tend not to get polled over the phone, etc. It will all go into the trend that says Labor is still powering on with very high approval and support levels. Barnyard opens his big mouth again and the polls will jump a point Labor's way Consider this neat summary:

Polls before and after Tony Abbott’s elevation.

Newspoll prior 57/43 post 56/44

Essential prior 58/42 post 58/42, 58/42

Morgan FTF prior 58.5/41.5 post 59/41

Wishing for an impact isn’t the same as achieving one.

[Lefty]

Sweeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeet

Would this be about the longest honeymoon in recent Australian political history?

[HBS Guy]

Hmmm Maybe Menzies had a longer honeymoon? Dunno the polling--in '61 he nearly lost power--Killen survived in his seat on commo preferences, well, really, it was the donkey vote saved Killen!