Poll Tracking

[Jovial Monk]

Shock! Horror! Head for the Hills! Newspoll shows 14 point swing! Pacific Solution to be brought back TODAY!! AAAARRRRGGGGGHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!

Well, until we think of all the other polls out in the last few days have shown no such move. We have a rogue poll, me thinks, an outlier to put it more statistically. If there is a 5% sampling error then 5%, one in twenty polls will be wrong. Neither Rudd nor Truffles have moved in satisfaction/ PPM.

Possum reports that In the 2007 election a great poll came out for Howard but no one noticed as it came out on Melbourne Cup Day and the next one, after another interest rate rise (due to Hopward/Tip mismanagement) was much more normal.

Possum also points out another internal inconsistency in the data.

Essential Research is steady on 59:41

I will just point out that the economy, alone in the developed world, is powering along--no real grounds for a swing. Asylum seekers haven't had much impact this time around, maybe Australia is finally growing up?

Newpoll graphic:

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/fi ... wspoll.jpg

Those figures don't make sense! Satified with Rudd but not his Party?????

I think Newspoll needs to bump up sample size! Last was 59: 41, this one 52:48. 3% margin of error, bet they have been 55:45 all along

[Lefteee]

Yeah, I read that in the orifice - that poll was actually conducted exclusively for the orifice (hey, not accusing them of shithouse journalism or anything ) - and immediately after I dropped in to see what poss was saying. He thinks that too many things about it just don't stack up.

Maybe they polled exclusively in safe Liberal seats?

The whole thing just seems a bit "out there". Too many contradictions.

[HBS Guy]

There have been 6 big not-real swings in Newspoll. See Poss re Howard getting a good one Melbourne Cup day 2007.

It is to do with sampling error etc. If you use a 5% confidence limit you will be wrong 1 in 20 times--that is why we call it stats.

Oh man! Deepshit doesn't follow polls, but still had a stab at explaining it, typical racist rubbish about boat people. A total nincumpoop as well as liar and thief is Deepshit!

[Lefteee]

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2009/11/06/morgan-adds-outlier-weight-to-newspoll/#more-6274

Looking more and more like an outlier. I think the righties will be disappointed

[Lefteee]

Actually, an interesting discussion occurring on that link. Some people are arguing a conspiracy theory. Dunno about that, but then you never know. Think fake emails, children overboard etc etc.

[HBS Guy]

Nah, the polling companies bread and butter is market surveys they are paid to do, the electoral stuff is basically PR for them, tho Newspoll is paid by Limited News IIRC.

You do get outliers and I really wouldn't bother putting it down to more than sampling error. The Newspoll samples are rather small and so they are reliable a lot of the time but do get these odd rogue swings.

[Lefteee]

So likely just a rouge poll then, you reckon?

[HBS Guy]

Dunno about rouge but definitely rogue

[Lefteee]

Smart arse

A poll of how many women still use rouge?

[HBS Guy]

AC Nielsen

Labor has dropped 1 per cent to lead 56 to 44.

poor old Newspoll!

(a 1% drop is meaningless, statistical noise.)

[Lefteee]

You beat me to posting this by seconds!

Sorry righties. And sorry opposition orifice - you're going to have to find some other dumpster to dig through for news this week

[HBS Guy]

It is pretty heartening, actually. People split on approving/disapproving Rudd's handling of asylum seekers. Yet they didn't listen to the attempted dog whistling by the libs!

[HBS Guy]

hahahahaha sorry to steal your thunder, lefty!

[HBS Guy]

La Stupenda states the obvious:

People won't turn to an Opposition in a shambles, which doesn't present an alternative. The Opposition's problems are easy to see, but Turnbull seems unable to fix them. Its fractures over emissions trading will be on view daily in coming weeks.

In these circumstances it would be surprising if the polls got better for it any time soon, other than the occasional rogue.

http://www.theage.com.au/national/rudd- ... -i3iq.html

(La Stupenda= Michelle Grattan who has been writing arse-covering, could be this-could be that crap for quite a while)

[Lefteee]

hehehe, that's OK, I'm quite gratified by the result - and by the thought of dickhead orifice editors like Micheal Sutchbury who got an erection over the rogue poll having to put it back in their pants and eat their own words for all to read

[HBS Guy]

I had a look at their "The Punch" website some time ago and decided not to bother going back.

Sutchbury can have no real credibility left.

heard on Newsradio just now, job ads at like 45% of what they were 12 months ago so yeah let us stop all stimulus spending, yeah sure! What idiots they are, what idiots they think we are!

Sutchbury can have no credibility left except among the usual Neanderthals!

[HBS Guy]

Possum consolidates questions on asylum seekers.

[HBS Guy]

Essential Report – Equal lowest ever for the ALP
November 16, 2009 – 3:26 pm, by Possum Comitatus
The equal worst Essential Report for the ALP comes in with the primaries running 45 (down 3) /39 ( up 4) to Labor, washing out into a two party preferred of 55/45 the same way – a 4 point gain to the Coalition. The Greens are on 9 (steady) while the broad “Others” are on 7 (down 1). This comes from a rolling two week sample of 1915, giving us an MoE that maxes out around the 2.2% mark.

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/20 ... r-the-alp/

Not bad, after weeks of asylum seeker hysteria

[Lefty]

Yep - unfortunately, it still reinforces the notion that Australians are convinced that there aren't really any such thing as refugees or assylum seekers. They are unwanted queue jumpers at best and criminals and terrorists at worst.

Beats me why anyone who had an acceptable life at home and plenty of money in their pocket would risk their life travelling thousands of miles of open ocean in a crowded, leaky and unseaworthy boat through some of the most pirate-infested waters in the world. I wouldn't mind betting that 1 in every 4 or 5 don't make it far enough to be intercepted by Australian or Indonesian patrol boats.

I saw a newspaper cartoon once from the late 1800's I think, regarding Chinese immigrants to Australia. It featured a Chinese face as the centre of a bunch of writhing octopus tentacles, each tentacle and in some vice that these people would apparently bring (opium use, prostitution - as though those things weren't here already). At the crux of it, I wonder if it's a similar thing - here come a bunch of non-European people with a strange language and foreign customs and cultures, trying to get in outside the normal channels: they're undesirables at the very least, probably worse.

Must be making life difficult for Rudd as a diplomat - I don't think Australia's stance here is well recieved in many countries (who take a lot more of these people than we do).

[HBS Guy]

We take an absolutely tiny fraction of all refugees and yet people, esp the over 55s get all worked up over it! HM of these came in the post WWII migration?

There are no queue jumpers because there are no fucking queues in refugee camps!

[Lefty]

Yep, just seems to be a solidly entrenched attitude.

Read something by some right-wing economist the other day, arguing that all boat people were queue jumpers who were actually finacially well off, while (for some reason I seem to remember being unable to fathom) those who arrive by plane - the majority - were more deserving of our sympathy.

Financially well off - has this cunt seen the state of the boats that they get to our waters in?

He also cast doubt on the argument that any Tamils were being oppressed in Sri Lanka. Hmm - a civil war rages for 30 odd years between ethnic Tamil fighters and government troops. When the government finally wins the day, the Tamil communities are patrolled and policed by soldiers who have had plenty of their mated killed in batles with rebel Tamil fighters. No, there would be no oppression there would there? No beatings, no dissapearences and all Tamils would have full social and economic equal opportunity wouldn't they.

Maybe he could volunteer to get aboard one of those derelict tubs of rotten wood and sail all the way from Australia to Sri Lanka, with 100 or so other individuals packed in like cattle in a crush, just to show us all how easy these people have it.

[HBS Guy]

Fuckwits, absolute fuckwits

[HBS Guy]

Newspoll 56:44

Which it probably always was. Throughout that supposed drop Kevin's PPM only moved within MoE.

The other Newspoll that came out, Qld voting intentions, saw Labor improve its hold on the newly won seats like Flynn--your boy will hang on and slightly improve his margin lefty!

Qld polling here.

[Lefty]

Here's Possum's take

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2009/11/16/essential-report-equal-lowest-ever-for-the-alp/

Like you were saying, it's heavily the grey voters who appear to believe that there are no such thing as refugees (unless they come from Europe) and that people fleeing oppression and other bad circumstances are actually invaders of some sort who we should turn back with naval gunships.

Government debt will continue to be an issue since almost all voters probably believe that federal government can actually become insolvent (it can't unless it voluntarily chooses to) and that taxes will therefore need to be hiked to pay it back. I won't be surprised to see the federal budget reflect this insurmountable public perception.

That was yesterday though, I see your newspoll is for this morning. At this stage, we are still on track to win the next election, likely with an increased margin.

Would be good to see Chris increase his margin - Flynn was a knife edge. I think there was less than a hundred votes in it.

[HBS Guy]

Yup something like that, that should improve to about 2000. Is he an active local member? personal support alone can be worth 1-3% in an election.