Poll Tracking

[johnsmith]

Oh dear:

Le voyageur‏ @LeVoyageurOz 8m8 minutes ago More

No number of selfies
childish name calling
fake policy initiatives
union bashing
and media help
will save turnbull and his inept government

[HBS Guy]

Yup, below Shorten in the approval stakes. Come back abbott

[HBS Guy]

TPP, PV steady:

Leroy @Leroy_Lynch

#Newspoll TPP L/NP 46 (0) ALP 54 (0)
Primary L/NP 36 (0) ALP 37 (-1) GRN 10 (+1) ON 9 (+1) OTH 8 (-1)http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll-malcolm-turnbull-coalition-lose-ground-to-bill-shorten/news-story/0f4353da7817a380cb538982827029b2 … ($) #auspol

9:04 PM - Oct 15, 2017

[HBS Guy]

Betting market:

[HBS Guy]

ALP win 22nd (TWENTY-SECOND) consecutive Newspoll!
-ALP 54
-Libs 46
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/nationa ... 2f2afb7c70 … #auspol #Newspoll

[Bam]

A 54% 2PP for Labor would be a 4.4% swing.

With a uniform swing of that size, the government would lose 21 seats on the current boundaries. Labor would gain most of them but not all (Grey could fall to NXT and the Greens could gain Batman from Labor). Of course, uniform swings never happen - seats with margins of 20% could fall, seats with margins under 2% could be retained, and sometimes seats even go the other way.

The 2PP is unreliable due to two factors: the One Nation factor and the method of calculating preferences that Newspoll uses.

One Nation is picking up the protest vote and their voters do not give as strong a flow of preferences to the Coalition as one might expect. These preference flows are volatile and hard to predict.

Worse for the government is that Newspoll does not explicitly ask respondents to allocate preferences, but uses preferences flows from the previous election to calculate a 2PP figure. This method is not reliable when a significant swing is on. This is why the major pollsters did not predict the outcome of the 2015 Queensland state election. In that election, they used the preference flows from the previous election, which did not take into account the significant swing to Labor. These polls were out by 2% - the difference between a 5-seat to 10-seat Coalition majority and the actual result of a hung Parliament.

What this means for the Federal Newspoll is that the actual 2PP could be wider, 55-45 or so. However, it's not possible to make this call due to the volatility of One Nation's preferences. If it was 55-45, a uniform swing on the current boundaries would only deliver three additional seats.

The most important factor that affects predictions is that redistributions are currently underway in Queensland (0 seats), Victoria (+1 seat), South Australia (-1 seat), Tasmania (0 seats) and the ACT (+1 seat). A redistribution has recently been completed in the Northern Territory. This redistribution will favour Labor because the current malapportionment favours the Coalition. Labor could gain two or three notional seats after the redistribution. Labor will certainly gain a notional seat in Victoria and the ACT, and may gain one in Queensland. The Turnbull government will go into the next election needing to gain seats to retain a majority, and that's not a good position for a moribund government to be in.

[HBS Guy]

Great post Bam!

Could ON get a seat in the HoR in Queensland?

[Bam]

Great post Bam!

Could ON get a seat in the HoR in Queensland?

I assume you mean Federally.

I don't think it is likely. The last time they were prominent was in 1998. They gained 11 seats in the Queensland parliament in the election held on 13 June 1998 with 23% of the vote, but no seats Federally in the 1998 Federal election (3 October) with 9% of the national vote. They gained one Senate seat in Queensland with 15% of the vote.

To win seats Federally, they would need high-profile candidates running in winnable seats. In 2013, the Palmer United Party was very prominent, but only Palmer himself won a seat - and that by a very small margin. I don't expect One Nation to do any better.

[HBS Guy]

No, I don’t think so either.

[HBS Guy]

☠️Death of Poptimism @Leroy_Lynch
#Essential TPP ALP 54(+2) L/NP 46(-2)
Primary L/NP 36(-1) ALP 37(+1) GRN 10(+1) NXT 3(0) ON 7(-1) OTH 6(-1)http://www.essentialvision.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/Essential-Report_311017.pdf … #auspol
10:01 AM - Oct 31, 2017
1 1 Reply 1 1 Retweet 2 2 likes

http://www.essentialvision.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/Essential-Report_311017.pdf

Guardian article on the poll
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/oct/31/most-voters-believe-nbn-will-fail-to-meet-australias-needs-guardian-essential-poll

Newspoll 54:46 now Essential 54:46.

MUST be some way an election can be brought on?

[HBS Guy]

Oh dear

Sky News Australia‏Verified account @SkyNewsAust
Follow Follow @SkyNewsAust More

#BREAKING: The latest newspoll has revealed that @TurnbullMalcolm's approval rating has dropped from 41 to 36 per cent. @AustralianLabor widened its lead over the coalition 55% - 45% in two party terms.

#NEWSPOLL @australian Primary Vote: Coalition 34 (-1), ALP 38 (+1), Greens 9 (-1), One Nation 10 (+1)
http://bit.ly/2zwUPS0

Don’t get too excited about 55:45 (tho nice to see ) the approval rating is much more significant (statistically and politically.) This MUST strengthen the RWNJs to boot Malcolm and put abbott back as PM?

All turdful had to do really was run a reasonable government. He couldn’t do that. Crap Budgets, Robodebt, cutting pensions, now the Manus horror etc etc etc. Couldn’t even finish running out the NBN Labor had started, have now spent/committed $60Bn on a temporary network, biggest waste of taxpayers’ money ever, losing Lib support with every botched connection, failure to connect, lousy connection worse than the previous ADSL etc.

[HBS Guy]

GhostWhoVotes‏
@GhostWhoVotes
12h12 hours ago
More
#Essential Poll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 46 (0) ALP 54 (0) #auspol
3 replies 96 retweets 70 likes
Reply 3 Retweet 96 Like 70 Direct message


GhostWhoVotes‏
@GhostWhoVotes
12h12 hours ago
More
#Essential Poll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 35 (-1) ALP 38 (0) GRN 9 (0) ON 8 (0) #auspol
1 reply 42 retweets 25 likes
Reply 1 Retweet 42 Like 25 Direct message

[HBS Guy]

Fairfax IPSOS poll:

#Ipsos fed poll: TPP ALP 53 (0) L/NP 47 (0)
Primary L/NP 34 (-1) ALP 33 (-1) GRN 13 (-1) ON 7

I just say: bullshit.

Greens are on 9%, ON about right at 7, Libs are right, low 30s but ALP are more like 38.

[HBS Guy]

Told ya Ipsos was wrong:

NewsPoll:

Leroy
@Leroy_Lynch

#Newspoll fed: TPP ALP 53 (-2) L/NP 47 (+2)
Primary L/NP 36 (+2) ALP 37 (-1) GRN 10 (+1) ON 8 (-2)

Just tiny movements within MoE so not significant. I would say LNP PV is too high due to sampling error, 33–34 is more what it is. ALP PV 37-38.

Will see what Essential says tomorrow.

[HBS Guy]

Today’s Essential gives very different results to Newspoll.

Labor is up, 55/45.So much for all yesterday’s blather about breezes and resets. All is within Margin of Error.

No-one really cares if the Liberals dump Malcolm, 54% overall say it won’t affect their vote.

Julie Bishop is nowhere near preferred leader – “I dunno” is leading there.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/dec/05/liberal-leadership-change-would-not-affect-most-voting-intentions-guardian-essential-poll

[HBS Guy]

Newspoll:
53-47 Labor (No change)

Primary votes 37 Labor, 36 Coalition, 10 Greens, 7 One Nation.

Turnbull approval: 32-57
Shorten approval: 32-56
Preferred Prime Minister: 41-34 Turnbull over Shorten.

Same sex marriage finally becomes legal – no effect on Newspoll.
Turnbull attacks Dastyari – no effect on Newspoll.

[HBS Guy]

Analysis of the last few NewsPolls shows the Libs trailing Labor 55:45 in the main capital cities and 54:46 nationally.



Bring on the election!

[MilesAway]

Election strategy: debt truck with copper Internet as the endlessly combined refrain....

[MilesAway]

Election strategy: debt truck with copper Internet as the endlessly combined refrain....

Tell me I’m wrong... you can’t

[HBS Guy]

First Essential poll. Oh dear. You are a Lib diehard supporter? Oh no, so the REACHTell poll for SKY got you excited, right? {pant pant}

Well, get some ice, OK? Ice, not icecream, fuckwad! OK, ice on your overheated brain? GOOD!

Essential:

54:46 to Labor.

Oh dear, where did that (OzPol definition) NICE person go?

Hmmm halfway to China?

[pinkeye]

I hear about Poll results and shrug. There are so many of them, and sometimes they agree with me and sometimes they don't.

Polls play no roll in my political decisions when it comes to voting.

At the moment the Polls seem to be heading in the correct direction.

[johnsmith]

Polls play no roll in my political decisions when it comes to voting.

polls aren't meant to play a part in your political decision, they are merely a snapshot into what the electorate is thinking about it's elected officials at any given moment

[johnsmith]

will turdball accept the standard he set for others, and resign when he gets to the 30th poll loss?

[HBS Guy]

Will he have a choice?

Fuckwads: people are hurting because wages grow less than inflation, living expenses increase by more. What does the dickhead do? Talks about taxcuts for companies and the wealthy. Contrary to what Crocodile says, company tax cuts do not lead to more jobs.

Croc is so deluded he thinks retained earnings are cash. They are not. Cash flow and profit can be very different: a failing company selling assets at firesale prices has plenty cash coming in, but is not making profits.

[HBS Guy]

First NewsPoll of the year:

Leroy @Leroy_Lynch

#Newspoll fed TPP ALP 52 (-1) L/NP 48 (+1)
Primary L/NP 38(+2) ALP 37(0) ON 5(-2) GRN 10(0) OTH 10(0) https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/m ... 1517740628 … ($) #auspol

9:09 PM - Feb 4, 2018

LNP 38(+2) that is way overstating the LNP PV!

Just movement within MoE and LNP position overstated.