Poll Tracking

[HBS Guy]

After Labor gained votes in the ACT it gained support in Essential.

TPP: 53:47 to Labor. Both Labor and Lib on 37%. Green neocons picked up 1%, Hanson lost 1%. Mr X has lost 1% Since 20/9—his idiotic, get in front of a mike or camera at all costs statements during the day SA had a statewide blackout must have done that.

Apart from the Mr X vote none of the movements are significant, all being well within the margin of error.

Why on EARTH did those green neocons give Truffles his DD? If election was held now the shower that is the abbott/truffles government would be convincingly turfed out!

[HBS Guy]

Morgan:

—58% favor Muslim immigration. Stupid Libs should have resettled Manus/Nauru ASs much sooner.

—Labor leads 55:45

[HBS Guy]

Essential essentially unchanged at 52:48 to Labor. Newspoll same result.

[HBS Guy]

Leroy @Leroy_Lynch

#Essential: TPP ALP 52 (0) L/NP 48 (0)
Primaries ALP 37(0) L/NP 38(0) GRN 10(0) NXT 2(-1) ON 6(0) OTH 7(+1) http://www.essentialvision.com.au/wp-co ... 011124.pdf … #auspol

Ahahahahah Mr X is paying for his cheap politicking over renewable energy during the SA blackout and serve him right!

[Aussie]

Where is the ReachTel Poll. They rang me (first time ever) over the weekend.

[HBS Guy]

Haven’t seen any sight of a recent REACHtel poll.

[HBS Guy]

Newspoll shows a 2.5% swing to Labor since the election to give a TPP of 53:47. “Other” vote dropping: Mr X insulted too many croweaters. Labor picking those up and the drop in Lib primary vote. Greens dragging along at 10% more or less.

Leroy @Leroy_Lynch
#Newspoll fed: TPP L/NP 47 (-1) ALP 53 (+1)
Primaries L/NP 39 (0) ALP 38 (+1) GRN 10 (0) OTH 13 (-1)

Good one, Malcolm!

[HBS Guy]

Essential joins Newspoll on 53:47:

Leroy @Leroy_Lynch
#Essential: TPP ALP 53 (+1) L/NP 47 (-1)
Primary ALP 37(0) L/NP 38(0) GRN 10(0) NXT 3(+1) ON 6(0) OTH 6(-1) http://www.essentialvision.com.au/wp-co ... 161108.pdf … #auspol

11:53 AM - 8 Nov 2016

[HBS Guy]

Turnbull sinking, Newspoll steady on 53:47 to Labor.

If that complete moron DiNatale had not given Truffles his DD we would be having an election now and maybe the shambles would get the order of the boot and the economy righted and the NBN put back onto FTTH as much as possible.

Essential had a meaningless (decimal point stuff, not significant at all) change to 52:48. Greens stuck on 10%, wonder if Trump might spell the end of them soon, politics might become more Left–Right and they are supposedly Left but aren’t really. One Notion, if they can keep their act together, might do well, move to 10% say at expense Nats and Libs mainly.

[HBS Guy]

While NewsPoll and Essential have the parties at 53:47 to Labor along comes a kind IPSOS/Fairfax poll showing the status is 51:49 to Labor. Must have a rather skewed sampling algorithm!

The Turnbull government is on 49% behind Labor’s 51% in two-party preferred terms, the latest Fairfax-Ipsos poll shows.

Turnbull’s falling personal standing appears to be leading the broader decline, dropping eight percentage points since June and a large 53 percentage points over the last year, the poll published in Fairfax Media shows.

An equal percentage of voters now either approves or disapproves of the way Turnbull is doing his job, giving him a net approval rating of zero.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/nov/28/malcolm-turnbulls-net-approval-rating-falls-to-zero-in-latest-poll

It is a shambles of a govt, rooted the NBN and the economy not to mention the Budget, deserves to be on something like 60:40 and I think will be on close to that if it lasts the 3 years.

[HBS Guy]

Essential has it at 51:49 to Labor, with Labor on 36% and Libs on 39, greens on 9, ON on 7(+1)

I doubt this is more than an exceptionally RW sample washing out by next week. There has certainly been nothing to cause Lib stocks to rise! In a couple of weeks Essential will be back to 53:47 to Labor.

[HBS Guy]

#Newspoll fed: TPP ALP 52 (-1) L/NP 48 (+1)
Primary L/NP 39(+1) ALP 36(-2) GRN 10(0) OTH 15(+1)


—Tweet by Leroy.

Nothing of significance has changed.

From the national shit sheet:

Newspoll: fix economy say voters as PM support falls to lowest level
The Australian 10:30PM December 5, 2016
Phillip Hudson Bureau Chief Canberra

Voters are looking to the federal government to concentrate on jobs, economic growth and the budget as Malcolm Turnbull ends the year with his support as Prime Minister falling to its lowest level since he seized power.

The latest Newspoll, taken exclusively for The Australian, reveals the Coalition heads to Christmas with its two-party preferred vote improving from 47 to 48 per cent but still trailing Labor, which has chalked up its sixth successive lead, on 52 per cent.

Mr Turnbull’s standing has fallen again with his rating as better prime minister dropping two points to 41 per cent, the lowest level since he toppled Tony Abbott as leader 15 months ago. It has tumbled 18 points over the course of this year.

Mr Turnbull’s margin over Bill Shorten, who currently is favoured by 32 per cent as the preferred prime minister, has plunged from a 39-point lead in January to just nine points.

Newspoll shows the Prime Minister’s election slogan of “jobs and growth” has been overwhelmingly ranked by voters, including Labor supporters, as the most important issue for Mr Turnbull to address next year.

Some 36 per cent of voters nominated jobs and economic growth as the top priority, including 41 per cent of Coalition supporters, 34 per cent of Labor voters and 24 per cent of Greens. Dealing with the budget deficit was ranked the most important by 16 per cent of voters, although its importance varied across the parties, with 23 per cent of Coalition supporters nominating it as the priority but only 12 per cent of Labor voters and 8 per cent of Greens ­supporters.

With Waffles’ standing going down doubt there is much real swing to the Libs. Just random fluctuations, noise, due to the small samples (under 2000) used in political polling.


Some other notes:

Morgan no longer does political polling

Galaxy now does the NewsPoll and its other polls seem to have ended

Fairfax IPSOS is just once a month.


Probably no polls apart from Essential now until Feb.

[HBS Guy]

Essential 52:48 to Labor, like I said, the high Lib panel polls washing out of the system.

Labor PV stable at 36%, ON up 1 to 8% (they really that high?) Greens have been on 9% for this and last weeks polls.

It could well be that the Greens base or part of it is moving to ON—doubt the rich inner city voters want swarthy Middle Easterners moving in, tho they will celebrate one such swarthy ME family seeking asylum on the 25th

[HBS Guy]

Told you that biased sample would wash out (hangs around for 2 weeks)

Leroy December 13, 2016 at 12:33 PM

#Essential TPP ALP 53 (+1) L/NP 47 (-1)
Primary ALP 37(-1) L/NP 37(+1) GRN 9(0) ON 7(-1) NXT 3(0) OTH 6(0) https://t.co/r0qSBmqXhT #auspol

— Leroy (@Leroy_Lynch) December 13, 2016

There was no way, there had been nothing happen to explain that 51:49 result. The Libs are still a total shambles, the Budget and the economy are still going backwards, had to be a sampling error and so it proved.

The little changes above, of ± 1% mean nothing, depends on next weeks sample if start of a trend. Greens seem to have retreated to 9% as a regular thing while ON has improved a bit since the election.

[HBS Guy]

A Reachtel poll, commissioned by activist group GetUp! and taken before Sussan Ley's resignation and in the midst of ongoing issues surrounding Centrelink's automated debt collection system, found increased support for the opposition, with Labor leading the Turnbull government, 54 points to 46. . . .

The poll, which took in 2126 respondents, focused heavily on the Centrelink issue, which has seen close to 200,000 notices of potential overpayments issued since coming online in July, with many claiming to have been incorrectly found to have owed money.

(smh)

[HBS Guy]

ER: 53:47 to Labor. Quite close to the REACHTEL poll released yesterday.

37% approve of Waffles, 48% disapprove. Shorten is on 37 & 44.

Shorten smartens his image up, the ratings will go much further up.

[HBS Guy]

WOW! Essential joins REACHTEL in showing 54:46 to Labor. Guess people don’t like their govt acting like common or garden thugs demanding money with menaces (good description of the Centrelink debacle!)

Leroy @Leroy_Lynch

Essential poll TPP ALP 54 (+1) L/NP 46 (-1)
Primary L/NP 35(-2) ALP 37(0) GR 10(0) NX 3(0) ON 9(+1) OTH 6(0) http://www.essentialvision.com.au/wp-co ... 170124.pdf … #auspol

10:18 AM - 24 Jan 2017

http://www.essentialvision.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Essential-Report_170124.pdf

Will we see 56:44 soon?

ON & X have taken 12% from the Libs, Greens have taken 10% from Labor (well, something under 10% I guess, too many Mr Twinkles and NIMBYs in the Greens. Still, if the Libs split Labor should be positioned (like being FOR a federal ICAC) to welcome some former supporters back.

[HBS Guy]

Newspoll WA:

Leroy @Leroy_Lynch
#Newspoll WA
TPP LIB 46 (-2) ALP 54 (+2)
Primary LIB 30 (-4) NAT 5 (-1) ALP 38 (-3) ON 13 (+10) GRN 9 (0) http://www.theaustralian.com.au/nationa ... 2f7c349f22 … ($) #wapol

11:05 PM - 2 Feb 2017

Think that “ALP - 3” might be a bit fanciful, will see next month I guess. Libs need ON to get back. Will principle or desperation rule? A deal with the devil?


Antony Green:

Antony Green ✔ @AntonyGreenABC
What the Australian's WA Newspoll might look like in seats assuming a uniform swing http://ab.co/2jGQPm3 #wapol #wavotes

11:28 PM - 2 Feb 2017

[HBS Guy]

Newspoll: Hanson on the rise as Coalition support dives
The Australian 10:24PM February 5, 2017
PHILLIP HUDSON

The Coalition’s support has collapsed to the lowest level since Malcolm Turnbull toppled Tony Abbott as prime minister, with the government trailing Labor by 46 to 54 per cent in two-party terms as parliament resumes amid increasing voter disillusionment about the major parties.

The first Newspoll for the year, taken exclusively for The Australian, reveals a record 29 per cent of people would not give their first preference vote in the House of Representatives to the Coalition or Labor.

………………….

But the Newspoll survey of 1734 people taken from last Thursday to yesterday shows there has been no gain for Labor or lift for Bill Shorten, with the ALP’s primary vote unchanged at 36 per cent since early ­December and a drop in personal support for the Labor leader.

The Greens are also unchanged at 10 per cent.

Support has surged for independents and minor parties from 15 to 19 per cent. Within this group Pauline Hanson’s One Nation has a national primary vote of 8 per cent, which is the same level of support it achieved at the 1998 federal election. Senator Hanson yesterday talked up her hopes of One Nation one day forming government.

National support for the Nick Xenophon Team is at 2 per cent, although it is about 20 per cent in South Australia.

Based on preference flows from the last election, Labor enjoys a massive two-party-preferred lead of 54 per cent to the Coalition’s 46 per cent. This is the seventh consecutive Newspoll where Labor has been in front and the worst result for the government under Mr Turnbull’s leadership.


54:46 How long before Truffles gets the order of the boot? I bet Newspoll is slighly biased against Labor.

[HBS Guy]

Leroy @Leroy_Lynch
Essential poll TPP ALP 53(-1) L/NP 47(+1)
Primary L/NP 36(+1) ALP 37(0) GR 8(-1) NX 3(0) ON 10(+1) OTH 6(0)http://www.essentialvision.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/Essential-Report_170207.pdf … #auspol

So Greens are slipping, 10.25% at the July election, 8% now (9% at the last NewsPoll but that might be a difference of .1-.4% or so.) Why are the Greens slipping? Mr X and PHON leaching votes? Mr X might, maybe Libs park their vote with Mr X instead of the Greens to show displeasure with the Libs? That might explain some of the drift in support. I think RDiNatale by himself has lost some of the support for the Greens. The Greens base wants to believe the Greens are left/progressive/ecowarriors.

Of course, the Greens have long since drifted to the right/neocon part of the spectrum. RDN just makes what/where the Greens are pretty obvious. This destroys the “magic” of the Greens. I predicted this a long whiles back. I was amazed they did OK in July but that was their last Hooray and now there is talk of a split, which doesn’t help a Party. (Libs are now split too with the Corgy Bernardi secession, that should see another drop in their support next Tue.)

Corgi will also take votes from the sensible (OK, a VERY small part) part of the PHONies.

That +1% for Lib PV is irrelevant, statistical noise. I count the 2.25% drop in Greens support tho it too is under the 3.5–3% Margin of Error because it has been sustained since shortly after the election, that makes it real.

[HBS Guy]

Essential poll TPP ALP 52 (-1) L/NP 48 (+1)
Primary L/NP 36(0) ALP 35(-2) GR 9(+1) NX 3(0) ON 10(0) OTH 6(0) http://www.essentialvision.com.au/wp-co ... 0214-2.pdf … #auspol

http://www.essentialvision.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/Essential-Report_170214-2.pdf

No significant changes, most are decimal point stuff.

[HBS Guy]

Essential has it at 52:48 to Labor.

Still think it is really 53:47 with decimal changes.

ON seems to have peaked at 10%, hasn’t changed for a few weeks.

[HBS Guy]

Newspoll: Coalition loses more ground amid tensions between PM and Tony Abbott

The Coalition has lost more ground in the latest Newspoll amid tensions between Malcolm Turnbull and Tony Abbott, with the government trailing Labor by 45 to 55 per cent in two-party terms.

Labor has extended its commanding lead since the resumption of parliament early this month, when the first Newspoll of the year showed the government was behind by 46 to 54 per cent in two party terms.

The Coalition’s primary vote has fallen from 35 per cent to 34 per cent, taking it to a result that is five percentage points points lower than it experienced in the weeks before Mr Turnbull toppled Mr Abbott as prime minister in September 2015.

Right, cut the pay of the poorest of workers but it is abbott’s fault says weak as piss Waffles!

[HBS Guy]

Bit more on Newspoll:

Leroy
February 26, 2017 at 8:58 PM
From James J at PB, who is never wrong…

Newspoll
55-45 2pp to Labor
Primaries: Coalition 34, Labor 37, Greens 10, One Nation 10, Others 9
Turnbull: Satisfied 29, Dissatisfied 59
Shorten Satisfied 30, Dissatisfied 56
Better PM: Turnbull 40, Shorten 33
1582 sample. Feb 23-26

(PBX)

Shorten will never be Mr Charisma but could show passion and anger in QT would see satisfaction move up. Nobody gives a stuff about the “better PM” measure.

[HBS Guy]

Essential back to 53:47 to Labor, bit more in line with the Newspoll 55:45 which might be a bit on the optimistic side (these are smallish samples, really, 2000 for ER, 1600 for Newspoll so margin of error about 2.5%. ER has a “rogue” panel one week some times and it takes 2 weeks for that rogue panel result to wash out.

Sometimes a change from, say, 30% to, say 31%, is really a .2% shift, 30.4 to 30.6% so never worry about 1% changes. this is in addition to the error from sampling error, or Margin of Error.