Poll Tracking

[HBS Guy]

From the Daily Toilet so no link:

A Newspoll published in The Australian newspaper today suggests the government will enter the unofficial election campaign trailing Labor on a 51/49 two-party preferred vote.

Steady on the poll two weeks ago.

Leroy ‎@Leroy_Lynch
Newspoll Fed TPP ALP 51 (0) L/NP 49 (0) Primary L/NP 41(0) ALP 36(0) GRN 11(0) OTH 12(0) http://www.theaustralian.com.au/nationa ... ee88f856f9 … ($) http://resources.news.com.au/files/2016 ... -table.pdf …

That “Others” figure seems high as does Greens on 11%, more like 9% really, 6% in an election.

Shorten has been addressing community forums and doing so very well, about 20 so far. The presstitutes are writing articles expressing surprise how well Shorten is doing when anybody could see this months or years ago.

[HBS Guy]

Morgan joins the other polls on 50:50.

[HBS Guy]

New daily reckons the numbers are stacking up for Labor.
[url]
http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2016/04/ ... rs-favour/[/url]

And someone leaked details of the Budget and the taxpayer funded advertising campaign to sell it. A taxpayer funded campaign during an election/caretaker govt period? Really? Shambles must be really fucking desperate!

[HBS Guy]

Essential 50:50 still.

Parliament cost tens of millions to be recalled, has nothing to do. Waffles has his DD trigger but does he have the guts to pull it?

[HBS Guy]

Essential makes a move!

TPP 52:48 to Labor!

PV Labor 39%

Greens down 1% to 10%. Sooner they knife DiNatale the sooner they can go back to realistically pretending to be a left/progressive/environmental Party! When you are to the right of Ghengis Khan as they are now that pretence is not possible.

[HBS Guy]

Morgan shows 51:49 to Labor.

FOUR polls now show Labor in the lead: 2 x Newspoll 51:49, ER 52:48 now Morgan 51:49.

I am liking this even more because the EVIL frauds the Greens are going backwards!


Now, must talk about the Greens. The Greens since the days of the two WA Green Senators have not been environmental and also have not been left/progressive tho they TALKED a great left/progressive/ecosocialist Party to suck votes from Labor. Fast forward to last year some time, Dick (remember that name) Di Natale knifed Christine Milne and before any other Green dick knew what was happening Dick DiNatale was Leader of the Green idiots and moved them WAAAAAAYYYYYYY to the right. It is VERY hard to be very right and pretend to be left/progressive/environmental and the support for the Aust Green Libs has ebbed constantly since then.

[HBS Guy]

Essential steady on 52:48. Voters continuing to sour on Truffles while their opinion of Shorten is slowly climbing. All good.

http://www.essentialvision.com.au/category/essentialreport?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Essential%20Report%203%20May%202016&utm_content=Essential%20Report%203%20May%202016+CID_59ba77cdc6cfd94df5dc7bbc6968272d&utm_source=campaign%20monitor&utm_term=See%20the%20results

[Cherie]

Essential steady on 52:48. Voters continuing to sour on Truffles while their opinion of Shorten is slowly climbing. All good.

http://www.essentialvision.com.au/category/essentialreport?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Essential%20Report%203%20May%202016&utm_content=Essential%20Report%203%20May%202016+CID_59ba77cdc6cfd94df5dc7bbc6968272d&utm_source=campaign%20monitor&utm_term=See%20the%20results

So happy with this

[HBS Guy]

2 months to go, hopefully ever gradual but sufficient movement to Labor.

[HBS Guy]

The Budget (or Fudget as it is popularly known) and Shorten’s Budget in Reply speech have not done Waffles/Fibs any favors! Morgan:

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull 57% (down a large 19% since a telephone Morgan Poll in October, 2015) is still preferred to Opposition Leader Bill Shorten 24% (up 10%) as ‘Better PM’ but much less than he was at the time he became Prime Minister in September 2015 according to a special telephone Morgan Poll conducted over the last two nights of May 4-5, 2015 following the Federal Budget

http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/6788-better-pm-turnbull-shorten-may-2016-201605060325

Better/Preferred PM is fucking useless in predicting anything but the movements are significant.

Wish Morgan had asked about approvals.

Shorten has to generate some anger/passion/genuiness (not a real word that last) and should have been doing that for some time IMHO.

[HBS Guy]

The Galaxy poll commissioned by The Sunday Telegraph confirms Labor could win office after just one term in opposition. It finds a ­majority of voters, 62 per cent, believe it is unfair only workers earning more than $80,000 a year received a tax cut in the Budget

Federal election 2016: Poll shows Coalition has 50 per cent chance of hanging on to power
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/national/federal-election/federal-election-2016-poll-shows-coalition-has-50-per-cent-chance-of-hanging-on-to-power/news-story/a6ab54f1ff329e50388029817cab4078

Equally, Labor has a 50% chance of winning. Labor has been the one to set the policy agenda and to make the first running. I think they will just make it, even if minority govt.

IPSOS poll now 51:49 to the Libs. A poll biased to the Libs with a non–significant change.

Strange period where polls went back for Libs yet seem to be hanging at 50:50. The Budget was not liked, people know the rich are getting big tax cuts at their expense. Think Shorten needs to acquire some charisma, some snap or pizzaz! I mean, the Libs have doubled the debt, tripled the deficit and are running on economic competence?

[HBS Guy]

Newspoll (should have been last week, think they were hoping the Libs would get a budget bounce) still 51:49 to Labor with Labor picking up 1% primary vote:

Leroy ‎@Leroy_Lynch
Newspoll Fed poll: TPP ALP 51 (0) L/NP 49 (0) Primaries L/NP 41 (0) ALP 37 (+1) GRN 11 (0) OTH 11 (-1) http://www.theaustralian.com.au/nationa ... ee88f856f9 … ($) #auspol
10:07 PM - 8 May 2016

Malcolm’s figures falling too—be bloody nice to see a 52:48 to Labor Newspoll or IPSOS! But moving in the right direction and the Budget is not helping the Libs. I think the Green vote is overstated a tad.

Poll sample a bit over 1700—a serious poll!

In 1986 Hawke called a 55 day election campaign like now. He was immensely popular and Labor was very popular while Peacock was considered a lightweight. Labor and Hawke lost support and were returned with a reduced majority.

Malcolm seems accident prone, is leading a shambles and is shedding support and approval. His only real advantage is his buffer (abbott’s buffer?) of 21 seats. I think Labor can win the election.

[HBS Guy]

Essential down 1% point, not significant, to 51:49%

Definitely not a significant drop: on the Budget, on Manus, the economy all the Libs policies are unpopular. So Labor is definitely on the front foot.

Not significant means within the margin of error, sampling error. Need a change of 2.6% or more for a change to be significant. so as the polls zig zag don’t get fussed about minor fluctuations.

There is another source of error where the sample they used was not random. This produces what is called a rogue poll. NewsPoll used to get them, shoot one way on one poll, overcorrect on the next. It is the long run of polls that matters.

I think Labor will squeeze in, a tiny majority or possibly minority govt, as long as no agreement with the Greens who are now probably to the right of the Libs.

[Aussie]

Newspoll ~ WA.

Libs getting hammered.

Link.

[HBS Guy]

Newspoll ~ WA.

Libs getting hammered.

Link.

Kevin Bonham

‏@kevinbonham
Barnett's best hope is to cost Turnbull govt all by himself so that Shorten will be PM by next state election ;) #wapol #Newspoll

Kevin Bonham is a pretty good psephologist.

[HBS Guy]

Morgan poll just in my inbox:

In the first week of the campaign ALP grabs election winning lead: ALP 52.5% cf. L-NP 47.5%

Primary L/NP 36.5, ALP 33, GRN 15.5, NXT 5, KAP 0.5, PUP 0

Only Morgan but looks good.

Green at 15.5% is like 4.5–5.5% too high, so add like 4% to ALP PV.

[HBS Guy]

Essential still 51:49%, bet next week will be more like 52:48 to Labor.

Greens down to 9%, 6% in the election.

IPSOS next Monday?

[HBS Guy]

IPSOS poll out tomorrow. 50:50

Considering the clear bias to the Libs, read IPSOS as at least 51:49 to Labor, more like 52:48.

Good thing about these close polls: no one on the left can consider the election won for Labor so no protest vote, no funny buggers. Vote ALP both houses or have 3 more years of Lib shambles!

[HBS Guy]

Headsup:

Justin Barbour ‎@justinbarbour
There is no good news for the Coalition in #newspoll says @chriskkenny. #viewpoint

8:26 PM - 22 May 2016

and

Bridget O'Flynn ‎@BridgetOFlynn
Chris Kenny: No real good news in #Newspoll for govt. Seems Turnbull's having trouble cutting through. Voters warming to Shorten.#ausvotes

8:28 PM - 22 May 2016

Will not be long before Truffles has negative approval figures in all the polls!

Newspoll tomorrow, ER Tuesday what will they bring?

[Cherie]

Labor holding steady,nothing major -steady is good, am suspicious of anything that is prone to big swings based on populist issues.

So surprised that Malcolm is looking so tired, lack lustre and just fizzling out it seems..to some he is a huge dissapointment - doesn't seem to be able to read the public sentiment at all- attack medicare and penalty rates openly and you will be shooting yourself in the foot

[HBS Guy]

Malcolm sold his soul—whatever reasonable beliefs he had—to be PM. He cannot make a decision about anything, the right wing controls policy. He has seen his personal ratings plummet and deservedly so. He is surrounded by idiots and incompetents like Dutton, Morrison, Corman etc.

[HBS Guy]

Election 2016: Newspoll shows Coalition failing to peg back ALP lead
THE AUSTRALIAN MAY 22, 2016 10:29PM
Phillip Hudson Bureau Chief Canberra

Bill Shorten’s standing with voters has jumped to a 12-month high, underpinning Labor’s election-winning lead in Newspoll, as Malcolm Turnbull’s support has continued to tumble.

The latest Newspoll, taken ­exclusively for The Australian, shows that after the first two weeks of the election campaign the government has been unable to claw back Labor’s two-party-preferred lead of 51 per cent to the ­Coalition’s 49 per cent.

And the massive approval rating enjoyed by the Prime Minister in the early months after he replaced Tony Abbott last September has been wiped out.

With six weeks to go until polling day, the Newspoll represents a two-party swing against the government of 4.5 per cent. If repeated on election day with a uniform swing, it would suggest about 23 Coalition seats would be lost and Mr Shorten would lead a Labor government with a narrow majority.

Voters still think the Coalition will win the July 2 election, although that expectation is also slipping.

The Coalition’s primary vote is steady at 41 per cent while Labor dropped one point to 36 per cent, the Greens are unchanged at 11 per cent and other parties and independents are up one point to 12 per cent.

Mr Turnbull remains the preferred prime minister by 46 per cent to Mr Shorten on 31 per cent. But the lead over his Labor rival has been more than halved.

GhostWhoVotes ‎@GhostWhoVotes
#Newspoll Turnbull: Approve 38 (0) Disapprove 50 (+1) #ausvotes

11:23 PM - 22 May 2016
27 27 Retweets 12 12 likes

-12% net approval!

GhostWhoVotes ‎@GhostWhoVotes
#Newspoll Shorten: Approve 37 (+4) Disapprove 49 (-3) #ausvotes

11:24 PM - 22 May 2016

Also 12% net approval—but improving! And how!

Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham

#Newspoll Better PM gap has closed from 49 pts to 15 in six months. This is the biggest such gain in favour of Opp Ldr in six months ever.

[HBS Guy]

ER showed Libs and Labor support reduced by 1%. No significance to that.

Automated poller REACHTEL has Labor on 52%, quite a change from other REACHTEL polls I have seen.

[HBS Guy]

Remember: IPSOS leans a bit to the Libs!

From the AFR shit sheet:

June 3 2016 at 8:00 PM
Election 2016: Labor takes the half-time lead in election cliffhanger

Labor has forged ahead of the Coalition for the first time since Malcolm Turnbull became leader, setting the scene for a bitterly fought four weeks ahead of polling day on July 2.

The latest Fairfax/Ipsos poll shows that at the half-way mark of the eight-week campaign, Labor leads the Coalition by 51 per cent to 49 per cent on a two-party-preferred basis. This result, based on the way preferences flowed at the last election, is a reversal of the Coalition’s 51-49 lead in the last poll a fortnight ago. When those polled were asked who they would preference this time, Labor’s lead is also 51 per cent to 49 per cent.

If this result were replicated on election day, it would represent a 4.5 per cent swing to Labor since the 2013 election, potentially handing it 21 seats, just over the minium 19 net seats it needs on a notional basis to form government.

But swings are never uniform and the election is being fought on a seat-by-seat basis. Either way, in what is the closest campaign since 1998, the result remains too tight to call.

The poll of 1359 voters, taken from Tuesday night to Thursday night in a week where the government was buoyed by good economic news but plagued by unrest over superannuation, shows the weight of expectation is still with the Coalition. It finds 55 per cent expecting the government to be returned while just 22 per cent believe Labor will be the first opposition in more than 80 years to seize power after just one term.
Labor’s two-party preferred vote at Abbott levels

Labor’s primary vote is at its healthiest level since June last year, increasing 2 percentage points in a fortnight to 36 points while the Coalition’s has slid 1 point to 42 per cent. The Greens slid from 14 per cent to 13 per cent.

Worryingly for the government, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings have fallen again after the previous poll showed the slide had been arrested. Mr Turnbull’s approval rating fell 3 points in the fortnight to 45 per cent and his disapproval rating rose 4 points to 42 per cent.

[HBS Guy]

Last week Essential had Libs in front. I thought to myself “chance new 1000 panel” just happened to be more Lib leaning than normal.”

Yup. Lib primary reduced 1 to 37% Labor up 1% to 36% and 2PP back to 50:50. Next week will have Labor ahead again as last weeks 1000 panel washes out.

2PP is sitting on a bit over 51% for Labor. They need to move it 1% more. The NBN is the lever they could use for that—IF they graps the opportunity! Michelle Rowland should be the person Labor chooses for this, better than Jason Clare.