What is happening in the Arctic?

For scientific papers on AGW, record happenings in the Arctic and the Greenland, Himalayan and Antarctic icesheets. Also weatherstorms and higher than average rainfalls and other extreme weather events.

Open to guest posting.

Moderator: johnsmith

What is happening in the Arctic?

Postby HBS Guy » 01 Aug 2018, 07:17

The NSIDC charts of Arctic sea ice extent show the 2018 sea ice extent is lower than the 2016 El Nino year extent!

Only slightly, yet to an increasing degree. The extent is more than two standard deviations below the 1981–2010 median.

Now, what precision this is all measured to I don’t know. 2018 started with a weak La Nina followed by ENSO–neutral and so should be nowhere near the 2016 extent! We shall see how the extent goes from here. Still six weeks of melt to go, be interesting to see how it goes.

The present tiny decrease below 2016 limits may be just a blip. Arctic ice is getting thinner—mostly 2 metres or less now—and thin ice is easily broken up by wave action. The thinning appears due to warm Atlantic Ocean water flowing under the ice.

Apart from seeing how low the minimum extent ends up it will be interesting to see if we get hot winds blowing into the Arctic again this coming NH winter causing another winter melt. We have had back to back winter melts in 2016/17 and 2017/18 after a few isolated years with winter melts this century so I would bet another winter melt coming up but if it doesn’t no big deal, but these winter melts will become a regular thing within not too many years. That is what I think anyway.

Arctic sea ice volume:
Image

Clearly, the volume of ice is decreasing—it is summer there. See how far the volume decrease goes.

As more and more Arctic Ocean is open water in the summers there the more AGW is boosted as dark ocean absorbs most sunlight falling on it, reflecting a small part of it, the opposite to an ice-filled ocean.
Abbott & Co are going to cause the mother and father of all recessions—be prepared!
User avatar
HBS Guy
Tractors to Australia
 
Posts: 49121
Joined: 27 Oct 2009, 15:37

Re: What is happening in the Arctic?

Postby HBS Guy » 01 Aug 2018, 17:21

I wonder if the Arctic sea ice extent minimum will be below 2012?
Abbott & Co are going to cause the mother and father of all recessions—be prepared!
User avatar
HBS Guy
Tractors to Australia
 
Posts: 49121
Joined: 27 Oct 2009, 15:37

Re: What is happening in the Arctic?

Postby Bongalong » 01 Aug 2018, 18:14

Yeh, well: time will tell but I don't suspect so!
Free what?
Bongalong
Irish wolfhound
 
Posts: 529
Joined: 25 Jun 2018, 12:48
spamone: Animal

Re: What is happening in the Arctic?

Postby HBS Guy » 01 Aug 2018, 18:57

A bit of wind will create the waves that will break up the thin ice! It was wind that caused the 2012 low and with increasing heat that record has to be about to fall!

But early days yet tho.
Abbott & Co are going to cause the mother and father of all recessions—be prepared!
User avatar
HBS Guy
Tractors to Australia
 
Posts: 49121
Joined: 27 Oct 2009, 15:37

Re: What is happening in the Arctic?

Postby Bongalong » 01 Aug 2018, 19:03

HBS Guy wrote:A bit of wind will create the waves that will break up the thin ice! It was wind that caused the 2012 low and with increasing heat that record has to be about to fall!

But early days yet tho.

Who's to say it's this year ?

Conservatism survives for a reason!

That is why Donald Trump can survive four years to secure a second term with no worries in sight!!

Who's next: oh, yeh--> democrats!

:tweed
Free what?
Bongalong
Irish wolfhound
 
Posts: 529
Joined: 25 Jun 2018, 12:48
spamone: Animal

Re: What is happening in the Arctic?

Postby HBS Guy » 01 Aug 2018, 19:04

I have been posting all over Twitter #grandsolarminimum, #globalcooling (sarcastically I use #globullkewling) and #miniiceage (have used [not even] a Teensy Weensy Ice Age to stir some of the idiots.)

A few have blocked me. That’s fine. I am not trying to change the minds of the scammers or their hardcore dupes: I am trying to show those who are beginning to think they may have something that the scammers are full of shit.
Abbott & Co are going to cause the mother and father of all recessions—be prepared!
User avatar
HBS Guy
Tractors to Australia
 
Posts: 49121
Joined: 27 Oct 2009, 15:37

Re: What is happening in the Arctic?

Postby HBS Guy » 01 Aug 2018, 19:13

Well, it is interesting to consider what might happen, causes and effects.
Abbott & Co are going to cause the mother and father of all recessions—be prepared!
User avatar
HBS Guy
Tractors to Australia
 
Posts: 49121
Joined: 27 Oct 2009, 15:37

Re: What is happening in the Arctic?

Postby Bongalong » 01 Aug 2018, 19:24

HBS Guy wrote:Well, it is interesting to consider what might happen, causes and effects.

It's all interesting.

The fact Trump will get away with nakedly looking after the American economy as a priority is very very interesting, for instance! :bgrin
Free what?
Bongalong
Irish wolfhound
 
Posts: 529
Joined: 25 Jun 2018, 12:48
spamone: Animal

Re: What is happening in the Arctic?

Postby HBS Guy » 01 Aug 2018, 19:37

By the time next Prez election Trumpy’s trade war will be hurting US workers and the debt will be through the roof.

Always back the horse called Self Interest as it is the only one really trying.
Abbott & Co are going to cause the mother and father of all recessions—be prepared!
User avatar
HBS Guy
Tractors to Australia
 
Posts: 49121
Joined: 27 Oct 2009, 15:37

Re: What is happening in the Arctic?

Postby HBS Guy » 02 Aug 2018, 10:12

2018 ice extent still below the 2016 extent on 31 Jul, the latest date on the graph.

Greenland ice melt at the surface of the icesheet has suddenly shot up—was a median year to now—way above normal levels and not just for this time of year.

Maps of Arctic temperatures had shown Greenland at below freezing temperatures, guess that has changed.

Surface melt is only half the story: ice is lost at sea level as glaciers calve and retreat. Two big glaciers, Jacobshavn and Petermann are retreating.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Abbott & Co are going to cause the mother and father of all recessions—be prepared!
User avatar
HBS Guy
Tractors to Australia
 
Posts: 49121
Joined: 27 Oct 2009, 15:37

Re: What is happening in the Arctic?

Postby Bongalong » 02 Aug 2018, 15:19

HBS Guy wrote:By the time next Prez election Trumpy’s trade war will be hurting US workers and the debt will be through the roof.

Always back the horse called Self Interest as it is the only one really trying.

Yeh, so what are you actually saying cuz? :Hi
Free what?
Bongalong
Irish wolfhound
 
Posts: 529
Joined: 25 Jun 2018, 12:48
spamone: Animal

Re: What is happening in the Arctic?

Postby Bongalong » 02 Aug 2018, 15:23

HBS Guy wrote:2018 ice extent still below the 2016 extent on 31 Jul, the latest date on the graph.

Greenland ice melt at the surface of the icesheet has suddenly shot up—was a median year to now—way above normal levels and not just for this time of year.

Maps of Arctic temperatures had shown Greenland at below freezing temperatures, guess that has changed.

Surface melt is only half the story: ice is lost at sea level as glaciers calve and retreat. Two big glaciers, Jacobshavn and Petermann are retreating.

I saw that, the day before it shot down: so I still don't see the exact point you are trying to make.

I am not, of course, trying to be difficult: because I know it's on like donkey kong: but am simply seeking to cipher the message correctly.


:buddy :buddy :bike


Believe it or not buddy :c :hlo :hlo :hlo :hlo :hlo :PC :read :PC :smack
Free what?
Bongalong
Irish wolfhound
 
Posts: 529
Joined: 25 Jun 2018, 12:48
spamone: Animal

Re: What is happening in the Arctic?

Postby HBS Guy » 02 Aug 2018, 15:36

I point out what is happening and what it means, maybe extrapolate what might happen and if it looks like it is happening write about forcings and consequences. I did say last year had two big bursts melting very late in the season—is this the start of a trend, if so what are the drivers, the forcings etc. Arctic temperature maps I had seen showed cold weather on Greenland, I guess this has ended. How long will this burst go on for? It is certainly a big burst.

I had posted about two trends in Antarctica, an acceleration of the melt and a slowing down of new ice formation and predicted, naturally, that Antarctica would be losing net ice before long. It already was when I said it.

So now we have an interesting development on the Greenland surface melt and also in relation to Arctic sea ice extent.

So far, 2018 is drawing lowly ahead of 2016 in surface extent decrease, won’t take much to go past 2012—again, if the clouds over the Arctic go away for a few weeks and the sun hits ice and ocean directly the melt will speed up, or it could be warm water or storms nibbling away at the edges of the ice—things to look for on the relevant sites.
Abbott & Co are going to cause the mother and father of all recessions—be prepared!
User avatar
HBS Guy
Tractors to Australia
 
Posts: 49121
Joined: 27 Oct 2009, 15:37

Re: What is happening in the Arctic?

Postby Bongalong » 02 Aug 2018, 15:45

HBS Guy wrote:I point out what is happening and what it means, maybe extrapolate what might happen and if it looks like it is happening write about forcings and consequences. I did say last year had two big bursts melting very late in the season—is this the start of a trend, if so what are the drivers, the forcings etc. Arctic temperature maps I had seen showed cold weather on Greenland, I guess this has ended. How long will this burst go on for? It is certainly a big burst.

I had posted about two trends in Antarctica, an acceleration of the melt and a slowing down of new ice formation and predicted, naturally, that Antarctica would be losing net ice before long. It already was when I said it.

So now we have an interesting development on the Greenland surface melt and also in relation to Arctic sea ice extent.

So far, 2018 is drawing lowly ahead of 2016 in surface extent decrease, won’t take much to go past 2012—again, if the clouds over the Arctic go away for a few weeks and the sun hits ice and ocean directly the melt will speed up, or it could be warm water or storms nibbling away at the edges of the ice—things to look for on the relevant sites.

Greenland spiked, but the day before it dipped.... :Hi

Scientific method is exactly that: methodical! Everything else is copy to sell newspapers!
Free what?
Bongalong
Irish wolfhound
 
Posts: 529
Joined: 25 Jun 2018, 12:48
spamone: Animal

Re: What is happening in the Arctic?

Postby HBS Guy » 02 Aug 2018, 18:33

True—but the thing is, 2016 was a big El Nino, 2018 started with a La Nina. So 2018 should be nowhere near 2016, much less pass it! That is a fact!

2018 is the hottest La Nina year! 2017 was the hottest non El Nino year! That is what is happening!
Abbott & Co are going to cause the mother and father of all recessions—be prepared!
User avatar
HBS Guy
Tractors to Australia
 
Posts: 49121
Joined: 27 Oct 2009, 15:37

Re: What is happening in the Arctic?

Postby Bongalong » 03 Aug 2018, 15:37

HBS Guy wrote:True—but the thing is, 2016 was a big El Nino, 2018 started with a La Nina. So 2018 should be nowhere near 2016, much less pass it! That is a fact!

2018 is the hottest La Nina year! 2017 was the hottest non El Nino year! That is what is happening!

Yeh, well I've read the news: it is interesting, to be sure!!

:read
Free what?
Bongalong
Irish wolfhound
 
Posts: 529
Joined: 25 Jun 2018, 12:48
spamone: Animal

Re: What is happening in the Arctic?

Postby HBS Guy » 03 Aug 2018, 16:47

Takes 30 years to establish a trend.

I think winter 2018/19 will be another winter melt event and probably a bigger winter melt than we have seen: part of a new trend I am picking plus an El Nino will be established by then. If 2018/19 is not a melt winter then no probs, have ups and downs in weather but a trend of winter melts is the new trend I am sure. We did have a winter melt last 2017/18 and there was a La Nina then. Before 2016/17 we had isolated winter melts in a few years then 2016/17 and 2017/18 were back to back winter melts.

So I am sticking my neck out and predicting another winter melt next NH winter. With an El Nino I think I am safe.

Seems weather systems send hot air via Siberia into the Arctic. La Nina winter 2017/18 saw such a big effect the thick, multiyear ice off the coast of North Greenland disappeared! Hardly ANY thick, multiyear ice is left now, needs only the most anemic bit of warming to melt a big area of ice!
Abbott & Co are going to cause the mother and father of all recessions—be prepared!
User avatar
HBS Guy
Tractors to Australia
 
Posts: 49121
Joined: 27 Oct 2009, 15:37

Re: What is happening in the Arctic?

Postby Bongalong » 03 Aug 2018, 17:00

HBS Guy wrote:Takes 30 years to establish a trend.

I think winter 2018/19 will be another winter melt event and probably a bigger winter melt than we have seen: part of a new trend I am picking plus an El Nino will be established by then. If 2018/19 is not a melt winter then no probs, have ups and downs in weather but a trend of winter melts is the new trend I am sure. We did have a winter melt last 2017/18 and there was a La Nina then. Before 2016/17 we had isolated winter melts in a few years then 2016/17 and 2017/18 were back to back winter melts.

So I am sticking my neck out and predicting another winter melt next NH winter. With an El Nino I think I am safe.

Seems weather systems send hot air via Siberia into the Arctic. La Nina winter 2017/18 saw such a big effect the thick, multiyear ice off the coast of North Greenland disappeared! Hardly ANY thick, multiyear ice is left now, needs only the most anemic bit of warming to melt a big area of ice!

You don't bet on the dogs do you bruther?

:Hi
Free what?
Bongalong
Irish wolfhound
 
Posts: 529
Joined: 25 Jun 2018, 12:48
spamone: Animal

Re: What is happening in the Arctic?

Postby Bongalong » 03 Aug 2018, 17:01

HBS Guy wrote:Takes 30 years to establish a trend.

I think winter 2018/19 will be another winter melt event and probably a bigger winter melt than we have seen: part of a new trend I am picking plus an El Nino will be established by then. If 2018/19 is not a melt winter then no probs, have ups and downs in weather but a trend of winter melts is the new trend I am sure. We did have a winter melt last 2017/18 and there was a La Nina then. Before 2016/17 we had isolated winter melts in a few years then 2016/17 and 2017/18 were back to back winter melts.

So I am sticking my neck out and predicting another winter melt next NH winter. With an El Nino I think I am safe.

Seems weather systems send hot air via Siberia into the Arctic. La Nina winter 2017/18 saw such a big effect the thick, multiyear ice off the coast of North Greenland disappeared! Hardly ANY thick, multiyear ice is left now, needs only the most anemic bit of warming to melt a big area of ice!

Yet, I will give you the fact that nares straight opening early gave the world at large a real taste of proper fear!

Yet, I will give you the fact that nares straight opening early gave the world at large a real taste of proper fear!


Yet, I will give you the fact that nares straight opening early gave the world at large a real taste of proper fear!
Free what?
Bongalong
Irish wolfhound
 
Posts: 529
Joined: 25 Jun 2018, 12:48
spamone: Animal

Re: What is happening in the Arctic?

Postby HBS Guy » 27 Aug 2018, 14:19

Arctic ice:

Image

No thick, multiyear ice is left in the Arctic Ocean. What was there is moving south—and out—through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. Thin ice is left and that thin ice is vulnerable to being broken up by big waves and then could be transported out the Arctic.

Still about a month of melt season to go. Find Arctic ice thickness here: https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

I put the 2016 graph in—2018 is close and lower than 2016 extent but is above it now.

See how low the extent gets by end September. Then see if there is another winter melt next NH winter. If we go into the next NH summer with a lot of ice missing then it will not be pretty.

Thin, new ice is saline and so can melt at temperatures below 0°C.
Abbott & Co are going to cause the mother and father of all recessions—be prepared!
User avatar
HBS Guy
Tractors to Australia
 
Posts: 49121
Joined: 27 Oct 2009, 15:37

Re: What is happening in the Arctic?

Postby Bongalong » 27 Aug 2018, 15:54

HBS Guy wrote:Arctic ice:

Image

No thick, multiyear ice is left in the Arctic Ocean. What was there is moving south—and out—through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. Thin ice is left and that thin ice is vulnerable to being broken up by big waves and then could be transported out the Arctic.

Still about a month of melt season to go. Find Arctic ice thickness here: https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

I put the 2016 graph in—2018 is close and lower than 2016 extent but is above it now.

See how low the extent gets by end September. Then see if there is another winter melt next NH winter. If we go into the next NH summer with a lot of ice missing then it will not be pretty.

Thin, new ice is saline and so can melt at temperatures below 0°C.

Some say multi-year sea-ice can be 2.5 m thick( :tweed :Hi :Hi :Hi :Hi :Hi perhaps even less?????!!!!????),... I usually think of it as 3.0 m thick but it is an open and ever ongoing debate.
Free what?
Bongalong
Irish wolfhound
 
Posts: 529
Joined: 25 Jun 2018, 12:48
spamone: Animal

Re: What is happening in the Arctic?

Postby HBS Guy » 27 Aug 2018, 16:10

Well over 4m thick.
Abbott & Co are going to cause the mother and father of all recessions—be prepared!
User avatar
HBS Guy
Tractors to Australia
 
Posts: 49121
Joined: 27 Oct 2009, 15:37

Re: What is happening in the Arctic?

Postby Bongalong » 27 Aug 2018, 16:12

HBS Guy wrote:Well over 4m thick.

Really, lol..... I did not see that answer coming!
Free what?
Bongalong
Irish wolfhound
 
Posts: 529
Joined: 25 Jun 2018, 12:48
spamone: Animal

Re: What is happening in the Arctic?

Postby HBS Guy » 27 Aug 2018, 16:17

Look at the diagram I posted, the red is over 4m.
Abbott & Co are going to cause the mother and father of all recessions—be prepared!
User avatar
HBS Guy
Tractors to Australia
 
Posts: 49121
Joined: 27 Oct 2009, 15:37

Re: What is happening in the Arctic?

Postby Bongalong » 27 Aug 2018, 16:36

HBS Guy wrote:Look at the diagram I posted, the red is over 4m.

But where it that say 4m is designated multi-year sea ice?
Free what?
Bongalong
Irish wolfhound
 
Posts: 529
Joined: 25 Jun 2018, 12:48
spamone: Animal

Next

Return to Global Warming and Australian Energy Market

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google [Bot] and 1 guest