“Climate has changed before”

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“Climate has changed before”

Postby HBS Guy » 28 Jul 2018, 11:12

As if that matters! Pace of change is way greater than before! We released in 100 years the amount of increased that saw 3Km thick ice sheets 3Km thick melt in 8000 years. No wonder both poles are melting with ice disappearing!

Read this great interview that covers a lot of things including Milankovitch cycles:

https://nexusmedianews.com/from-ice-ages-to-interglacial-periods-the-climate-has-always-changed-3592bc06f5a8

ACM: We are forcing changes much faster and on a scale that is much larger than any natural climate changes experienced by humanity. Just look at a graph of CO2 change through time, say over the past half-million years from ice core data, and it bops up and down like a teenage head listening to the pop music charts. Then compare that to the ongoing CO2 rise caused by people, and it is off-the-charts extreme, headed straight up and off the page in a blink. Climate takes some time to adjust, and it will eventually catch up to the huge changes in CO2 we are causing. Scientists call that the climate “commitment,” meaning that we have already committed to future climate change by the CO2 we’ve already put into the atmosphere. So again, it is way faster and way bigger than anything humans have experienced in the history of civilization.


Something to think about—stopping emissions isn’t enough, have 9 metres of sea level rise committed, need to REMOVE CO2!
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Re: “Climate has changed before”

Postby pinkeye » 28 Jul 2018, 22:17

yeah well
you all know my view.

It is too late to save the world as we know it.

Change is upon us, as ever.
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Re: “Climate has changed before”

Postby HBS Guy » 29 Jul 2018, 05:15

Not arguing with that but to save people living in deltas (salt water is invading the Mekong delta as sea levels rise, forcing some farmers there off their land) and other low lying areas—and a LOT of people live in low lying areas—time to take action. Reduce emissions, adapt, mitigate.
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Re: “Climate has changed before”

Postby Bongalong » 29 Jul 2018, 14:32

pinkeye wrote:yeah well
you all know my view.

It is too late to save the world as we know it.

Change is upon us, as ever.

The world is always changing!

It doesn't mean you go back to sleep and play the ignorance card!!
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Re: “Climate has changed before”

Postby HBS Guy » 29 Jul 2018, 15:09

Unfortunately too many do!
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Re: “Climate has changed before”

Postby Bongalong » 29 Jul 2018, 15:18

HBS Guy wrote:Unfortunately too many do!

We're all just a bit too rich!
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Re: “Climate has changed before”

Postby pinkeye » 29 Jul 2018, 19:52

HBS Guy wrote:Not arguing with that but to save people living in deltas (salt water is invading the Mekong delta as sea levels rise, forcing some farmers there off their land) and other low lying areas—and a LOT of people live in low lying areas—time to take action. Reduce emissions, adapt, mitigate.


MY POINT... this was known in the 80's. But no-one felt like doing anything. It wasn't listened to. It was ridiculed.

NOTHING was done. We all have allowed ourselves to live in a state where I'm fine, you're fine.

It's only when these disasters occur, that people stir.

So now we, and our children, and our childrens children will have to deal with it.! We have no-one to blame but OURSELVES.

Pretending we can change it now is delusional.
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Re: “Climate has changed before”

Postby Bongalong » 30 Jul 2018, 14:01

pinkeye wrote:
HBS Guy wrote:Not arguing with that but to save people living in deltas (salt water is invading the Mekong delta as sea levels rise, forcing some farmers there off their land) and other low lying areas—and a LOT of people live in low lying areas—time to take action. Reduce emissions, adapt, mitigate.


MY POINT... this was known in the 80's. But no-one felt like doing anything. It wasn't listened to. It was ridiculed.

NOTHING was done. We all have allowed ourselves to live in a state where I'm fine, you're fine.

It's only when these disasters occur, that people stir.

So now we, and our children, and our childrens children will have to deal with it.! We have no-one to blame but OURSELVES.

Pretending we can change it now is delusional.

You're delusional if you think people are giving up because you are!

:Hi
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Re: “Climate has changed before”

Postby HBS Guy » 31 Jul 2018, 10:32

https://richpancost.blogs.bristol.ac.uk/2018/07/09/the-pliocene-the-last-time-earth-had-400-ppm-of-carbon-dioxide/#.W0UgKFrvR1A.twitter

One of the main approaches for better understanding our future Uncertain World, both with respect to minimising that uncertainty but also identifying the limits to our knowledge, is to look to the past. A few years ago, we passed 400 ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere, a level that we have not experienced for about 3 million years, during the Pliocene epoch. That coincided with Bristol hosting the 2nd International Conference on the Pliocene, providing an opportunity through this piece, originally published on The Conversation, and its embedded video to discuss how we try to unravel ancient climates to better understand the future. I have updated some of the text, reflecting some of the changing intellectual landscape. To provide some immediate context, below is the latest record of current atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations from the Mauna Loa Observatory (i.e. The Keeling Curve).

How can air bubbles trapped in ice for millions of years, or fossilised fern fronds, or the chemical make-up of rocks that were underwater in the distant past provide us with an inkling of our future?

The answer lies in these clues provided by studying the Pliocene epoch, the span of geological time that stretched from 5.3 to 2.6 million years ago. This period of Earth’s history is interesting for many reasons, but one of the most profound is that the Earth’s atmosphere apparently contained high concentrations of carbon dioxide. Our best estimates suggest concentrations of about 300-400 parts per million (ppm) – much higher than concentrations of 100 years ago, but the same or lower than today after centuries of industrialisation and fossil fuel burning.



These means of drawing estimates come with larger margins of error, but they still provide key insights into climate sensitivity on a warmer Earth. Recent research indicates that these various carbon dioxide estimates of Pliocene carbon dioxide levels are converging, giving added confidence from which to derive estimates of climate sensitivity. In particular, it seems an increase of carbon dioxide from about 280ppm (equivalent to that before the industrial revolution) to about 400ppm in the Pliocene resulted in an Earth warmer by 2°C. The below figure shows the sea surface temperatures reconstructed for the Pliocene using a range of chemical and biological proxy data (a) and the difference (anomaly) between those temperatures and those of the modern pre-industrial world, i.e. before we started adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere in significant quantities (b); notice how much hotter the oceans were, especially at high latitudes. From the Proceedings of the Royal Society.

Image

This next figure is derived from an ensemble of climate models, which allows an extrapolation between data and therefore a comparison of temperatures on land and the modern pre-industrial world. Again, note how much higher temperatures were at high latitudes… but also continental interiors. We are seeing a manifestation of this now, with elevated temperatures occurring all over the globe but some areas experiencing much more dramatic warming. This work is from the amazing PlioMIP project and this figure is specifically from the PAGES website, adapted from Haywood et al., 2013.

Image

Taking into account other factors, this suggests a climate sensitivity of about 3°C, which confirms both the Pleistocene and model-based estimates. It also suggests that we have yet to experience the full consequences of the greenhouse gases already added to the atmosphere, let alone those we are still putting into it. [And finally, it suggests that there is a risk that we have already surpassed the agreed limits of the Paris Climate Agreement.]

This next figure is derived from an ensemble of climate models, which allows an extrapolation between data and therefore a comparison of temperatures on land and the modern pre-industrial world. Again, note how much higher temperatures were at high latitudes… but also continental interiors. We are seeing a manifestation of this now, with elevated temperatures occurring all over the globe but some areas experiencing much more dramatic warming. This work is from the amazing PlioMIP project and this figure is specifically from the PAGES website, adapted from Haywood et al., 2013.



Very interesting reading. This, especially is sobering:
It also suggests that we have yet to experience the full consequences of the greenhouse gases already added to the atmosphere, let alone those we are still putting into it.


We have made “committments” that are to come, especially heat and humidity making parts of the planet unlivable and sea level rise.
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