Antarctica is melting faster than anyone thought

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Antarctica is melting faster than anyone thought

Postby Squire » 20 Jun 2018, 13:41

My belief is that the environment has sufficient momentum that the relentless rise of sea level cannot be stopped.

One other effect that is rarely mentioned is the loss of ice mass at the two poles will change the gravitational effect on the sea causing the sea level rise to be higher distant from the poles.

http://www.thisisinsider.com/antarctica-ice-melt-glaciers-ice-shelf-collapse-2018-6

Antarctica is melting faster than anyone thought, and we're not ready for the sea level rise that's coming

Kevin Loria, Business Insider

Ice melting rates in Antarctica tripled between 2012 and 2017, according to a study published in the journal Nature.
The biggest increase has been ice melt in West Antarctica, where glaciers and ice sheets are vulnerable to warmer ocean temperatures.
Experts think that if we don't get climate change under control quickly, ice sheets in West Antarctica could collapse, leading to rapid sea level rise around the globe.

In the future, seas will rise far higher than they are today. The question is whether it happens quickly or slowly.

There's enough ice stacked on top of Antarctica to raise seas around the globe by almost 200 feet. While it takes time for major changes to occur with that much ice, Antarctica is melting faster than we thought, according to a study recently published in the journal Nature.

The melting rate has been speeding up significantly in recent years.

Between 1992 and 2017, Antarctica lost more than 3.3 trillion tons of ice, causing sea levels around the globe to rise an average of 8 millimeters. About 40% of that loss occurred between 2012 and 2017, according to the new study. From 1992 to 2012, the continent lost about 84 billion tons of ice a year, and over the next five years, that jumped to more than 240 billion tons per year.


If the acceleration of ice melt were to continue, it could potentially cascade, leading to runaway ice melt and rapid sea level rise.

The biggest changes have come in West Antarctica, where the glaciers holding back ice sheets rest on rapidly warming ocean waters, causing them to melt more quickly.

Climate science professor Chis Rapley of the University College London has previously described Antarctica as a "slumbering giant" of ice melt and sea level rise that seems to be awakening.

"This paper suggests it is stretching its limbs," he told the UK Science Media Center.

For the new study, scientists from 44 international organizations combined data from 24 different satellite surveys.

"Thanks to the satellites our space agencies have launched, we can now track [polar ice sheet] ice losses and global sea level contribution with confidence," said Andrew Shepherd of the University of Leeds, who led the study along with Erik Ivins of NASA's JPL Laboratory. "[T]he continent is causing sea levels to rise faster today than at any time in the past 25 years."

Their research brings our understanding of the current state of Antarctic ice up to date, according to researchers not involved in the study.

While 8 millimeters of sea level rise from Antarctic melting alone might not sound extreme, the rapid changes associated with it should be enough to give anyone pause.

In the 20th century, sea levels around the globe rose about six inches on average, Michael Oppenheimer, a professor of geosciences at Princeton, said during a recent media briefing on sea level rise. That was enough to narrow the typical East Coast beach by about 50 feet.

Since the mid-1990s, places like Miami have seen an additional five inches of sea level rise. Seas rise faster in some places than others, due to ocean currents and the effects of gravity.

The loss of ice on one side of the world tends to make seas rise on the other side, due to gravity. As mass from the Antarctic ice sheet is lost, gravity in that region decreases, which means that places furthest from that ice sheet tend to see the biggest increases in sea level.

Right now, three factors contribute about equally to global sea level rise, according to Oppenheimer. First, as the world has warmed as result of the burning of fossil fuels, oceans have absorbed the majority of the heat. Warmer water expands, which takes up more space. Second, glaciers are melting, adding more water to the system. The third factor is the ice sheets in Antarctica and Greenland that are still protected by glaciers.

But if or when glaciers holding those ice sheets back collapse, ice sheets are expected to become by far the biggest cause of sea level rise. And one of the most vulnerable ice sheets is that one on West Antarctica, where the melting rate has increased most quickly.

Time is running out
In an article published alongside the new research, a team of researchers described two possible scenarios for the near future.

Within a short period of time, we'll have either taken action to drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions and climate change, or we won't.

If we dramatically cut emissions and keep global temperature from climbing more than two degrees Celsius by the end of the century, we're far more likely to avoid rapid ice sheet collapse, according to the authors.

We've already baked a certain amount of sea level rise into the planet's system. Global temperatures are close to what they were about 125,000 years ago, when seas were 20 to 30 feet higher than they are now, according to Andrea Dutton, a geologist at the University of Florida who spoke at the same sea level rise briefing. That means the planet will see at least that much sea level rise eventually, though if we're lucky it'll take hundreds or thousands of years to get there.

But the scenario where we don't cut emissions, if we don't do anything about climate change, is a lot more disturbing. In that case, the authors of the new article in Nature argue that by 2070, we could start to see the rapid loss of ice sheets.

If the glaciers holding back ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica were to collapse, massive quantities of ice could pour into the world's oceans, leading to rapid sea level rise — something known as a "pulse."

If such a scenario were to occur, current sea-level rise predictions for vulnerable cities like Miami would be far too low. In the case of a pulse, some experts think coastal cities could see more than 10 feet of sea-level rise by 2100.

"If we aren't already alert to the dangers posed by climate change, this should be an enormous wake-up call," Martin Siegert, co-director of the Grantham Institute at Imperial College London, said to the Science Media Center.
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Re: Antarctica is melting faster than anyone thought

Postby MilesAway » 20 Jun 2018, 14:00

It's not a directly proportional thing: positive and negative feedback mechanisms do exist!

Antartica is the only continent with a whole latitude of water surrounding it, for instance!

i.e. there are system boundaries within the ecosphere and to say that because this then that for the whole system makes no sense, literally!
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Re: Antarctica is melting faster than anyone thought

Postby HBS Guy » 20 Jun 2018, 17:15

That water is getting more and more pulses of warm water, DRAH. The east gets hit with warm air.
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Re: Antarctica is melting faster than anyone thought

Postby MilesAway » 20 Jun 2018, 17:27

HBS Guy wrote:That water is getting more and more pulses of warm water, DRAH. The east gets hit with warm air.

I dunno!
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Re: Antarctica is melting faster than anyone thought

Postby HBS Guy » 20 Jun 2018, 18:23

Grace and laser altimeter studies etc show Antarctica is losing ice. It will lose ice more and more quickly.
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Re: Antarctica is melting faster than anyone thought

Postby MilesAway » 21 Jun 2018, 12:59

HBS Guy wrote:Grace and laser altimeter studies etc show Antarctica is losing ice. It will lose ice more and more quickly.

I fail to see it being significant!
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Re: Antarctica is melting faster than anyone thought

Postby Squire » 21 Jun 2018, 13:21

MilesAway wrote:
HBS Guy wrote:Grace and laser altimeter studies etc show Antarctica is losing ice. It will lose ice more and more quickly.

I fail to see it being significant!


Because you are miles away?
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Re: Antarctica is melting faster than anyone thought

Postby DonDeeHippy » 21 Jun 2018, 13:25

Squire wrote:
MilesAway wrote:
HBS Guy wrote:Grace and laser altimeter studies etc show Antarctica is losing ice. It will lose ice more and more quickly.

I fail to see it being significant!


Because you are miles away?

:grn :thumb
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Re: Antarctica is melting faster than anyone thought

Postby MilesAway » 21 Jun 2018, 13:29

Squire wrote:
MilesAway wrote:
HBS Guy wrote:Grace and laser altimeter studies etc show Antarctica is losing ice. It will lose ice more and more quickly.

I fail to see it being significant!


Because you are miles away?

Possibly :grn

I think the latitude of water surrounding the continent is supposed to act as a real barrier to it's local climate changing as compared to the north pole where the whole deal is completely opposite i.e. it's water surrounded by land!

There is no symmetry to the earth so to speak so then when it's systems are being driven they shouldn't be expected to act the same and they don't!
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Re: Antarctica is melting faster than anyone thought

Postby MilesAway » 21 Jun 2018, 13:31

DonDeeHippy wrote:
Squire wrote:
MilesAway wrote:
HBS Guy wrote:Grace and laser altimeter studies etc show Antarctica is losing ice. It will lose ice more and more quickly.

I fail to see it being significant!


Because you are miles away?

:grn :thumb

What does significant mean in your book?
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Re: Antarctica is melting faster than anyone thought

Postby Squire » 21 Jun 2018, 13:36

MilesAway wrote:
DonDeeHippy wrote:
Squire wrote:
MilesAway wrote:
HBS Guy wrote:Grace and laser altimeter studies etc show Antarctica is losing ice. It will lose ice more and more quickly.

I fail to see it being significant!


Because you are miles away?

:grn :thumb

What does significant mean in your book?


Having or likely to have a major effect; important
Fairly large in amount or quantity

The ice loss qualifies in both aspects.
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Re: Antarctica is melting faster than anyone thought

Postby HBS Guy » 21 Jun 2018, 13:43

Antarctica used to be isolated from rest of world with circumpolar currents and winds—Jet Stream etc.

No longer. As the oceans store more and more heat that heat is entering both the Arctic Ocean and the Southern Ocean around Antarctica. So is warm air.
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Re: Antarctica is melting faster than anyone thought

Postby MilesAway » 21 Jun 2018, 14:14

Squire wrote:
MilesAway wrote:
DonDeeHippy wrote:
Squire wrote:
MilesAway wrote:
HBS Guy wrote:Grace and laser altimeter studies etc show Antarctica is losing ice. It will lose ice more and more quickly.

I fail to see it being significant!


Because you are miles away?

:grn :thumb

What does significant mean in your book?


Having or likely to have a major effect; important
Fairly large in amount or quantity

The ice loss qualifies in both aspects.

Not in the Southern Hemisphere it doesn't!
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Re: Antarctica is melting faster than anyone thought

Postby Squire » 21 Jun 2018, 15:17

Miles away is still too far from the facts and has not challenged any of the facts about Antarctica already presented.

Southern Hemisphere is not just Antarctica. There are glaciers as well which are melting which will at least contribute to global warming by decreasing the amount of sunlight reflected which is instead absorbed as heat.

"The new study compared satellite imagery from two different missions over a 12-year period starting in 2000. On average, they found, the Southern Patagonian Icefield glaciers thinned by about six feet per year during that period."

https://www.scientificamerican.com/arti ... n-a-hurry/

Patagonian Glaciers Melting in a Hurry
A new study finds that ice fields in southern South America are rapidly losing volume even at the highest elevations

By DailyClimate.org on September 6, 2012
Patagonian Glaciers Melting in a Hurry
Credit: Dietmar Temps/flickr
Ice fields in southern South America are rapidly losing volume and in most cases thinning at even the highest elevations, contributing to sea-level rise at "substantially higher" rates than observed from the 1970s through the 1990s, according to a study published Wednesday.

The rapid melting, based on satellite observations, suggests the ice field's contribution to global sea-level rise has increased by half since the end of the 20th century, jumping from 0.04 millimeters per year to about .07 mm, and accounting for 2 percent of annual sea-level rise since 1998.

The southern and northern Patagonian ice fields are the largest mass of ice in the southern hemisphere outside of Antarctica. The findings spell trouble for other glaciers worldwide, according to the study's lead author, Cornell University researcher Michael Willis.

"Patagonia is kind of a poster child for rapidly changing glacier systems," he said in a statement. The region, he added, "is supplying water to sea-level at a big rate compared to its size."

The study was published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.

Melting glaciers, both in South America and the Himalaya, are a major concern to populations downstream who depend on the ice fields as a reservoir providing a steady summer water supply for drinking and agriculture.

Scientists suspect the Andes, for instance, have already surpassed "peak water" and that hundreds of thousands of people living downstream of the glaciers in Peru and Ecuador now face a future of lower flows and increased variability in local rivers.

The new study compared satellite imagery from two different missions over a 12-year period starting in 2000. On average, they found, the Southern Patagonian Icefield glaciers thinned by about six feet per year during that period.

Some glaciers were stagnant; others even advanced slightly, Willis said. "But on the whole, retreat and thinning is prevalent."

Warming air temperatures contributed to the thinning throughout the mountain range, Willis noted. And the warmer temperatures increased the chances that rain – as opposed to snow – would fall on and around the glaciers. That double threat increases the amount of water under the glaciers, decreasing friction and moving more ice to the oceans, he said.

Other researchers said the new study could provide valuable information for future predictions, said Alex Gardner, an assistant professor at Clark University in Massachusetts, who was not involved in the study but researches glaciers and ice sheets.

"A study like this really provides a strong data set to validate and calibrate glacial models," he said in a statement.
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Re: Antarctica is melting faster than anyone thought

Postby MilesAway » 22 Jun 2018, 12:59

HBS Guy wrote:Antarctica used to be isolated from rest of world with circumpolar currents and winds—Jet Stream etc.

No longer. As the oceans store more and more heat that heat is entering both the Arctic Ocean and the Southern Ocean around Antarctica. So is warm air.

That's potentially truly frightening but the expectation would be to see calamity in the northern hemisphere first.

Change requires such things otherwise there is no impetus for change!
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Re: Antarctica is melting faster than anyone thought

Postby HBS Guy » 22 Jun 2018, 13:55

Sea levels are rising faster off the east coast of the US. That is where hurricanes hit. There will be a multi–state flood catastrophe (Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas, maybe Texas and Louisiana with storm surges taking lives and destroying infrastructure and agricultural infrastructure. THEN the world will get serious and the various ice age snake oil peddlers will fold their tents and bank the money they took from gullible idiots like Booby.
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Re: Antarctica is melting faster than anyone thought

Postby HBS Guy » 22 Jun 2018, 14:14

Parakeelia millions! @PolAnimalAus More

No #miniiceage! Leaders will get serious about tackling AGW: reducing emissions, adapting, mitigating and so on when there is a huge catastrophe that takes thousands of lives and destroys $trillions of houses, shops, infrastructure and agricultural infrastructure.


Next tweet:L
Sea levels are rising faster off the east coast of the US. That is where hurricanes hit. There will be a multi–state flood catastrophe (Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas, Texas and Louisiana. Thousands or tens of thousands of lives lost.



Last tweet:
Storm surges taking lives and destroying infrastructure and agricultural infrastructure. THEN the world will get serious and the “ice age” snake oil peddlers will fold their tents, sneak away and bank the money they took from gullible idiots like YOU and fossil fuel interests!


Conclusion:
If you really want to learn as to what is happening with climate etc read here:
viewforum.php?f=89

And join and ask questions, put your point of view etc.


That will get us some attention!
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Re: Antarctica is melting faster than anyone thought

Postby MilesAway » 22 Jun 2018, 14:48

HBS Guy wrote:Sea levels are rising faster off the east coast of the US. That is where hurricanes hit. There will be a multi–state flood catastrophe (Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas, maybe Texas and Louisiana with storm surges taking lives and destroying infrastructure and agricultural infrastructure. THEN the world will get serious and the various ice age snake oil peddlers will fold their tents and bank the money they took from gullible idiots like Booby.

Economics is where the rubber hits the road.

The trouble is economies are all government intervened but then that's why the problem was allowed to become a problem in the first place.

It's not like fossil fuels didn't help the human race: it's more of a cost/benefit analysis that is required but fake news and/or political correctness wont allow that. After all, we all want a big Australia apparently :bike :bike

People are allowed to get rich in a free-market ideal.... yet free-market ideals include insurance companies operating with full knowledge of things.

It's an interesting world!

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Re: Antarctica is melting faster than anyone thought

Postby HBS Guy » 24 Jun 2018, 13:37

Will have better knowledge of glacier retreat on Antarctica and elsewhere:

New and improved missions, such as Sentinel-3, the recently launched Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Follow-On (GRACE-FO), and the eagerly awaited ICESat-2, will continue to give us insights into the disappearing ice in even greater detail.


Read more at: https://phys.org/news/2018-06-satellites-track-antarctic-ice.html
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Re: Antarctica is melting faster than anyone thought

Postby HBS Guy » 27 Jun 2018, 14:50

Lees has found there is a volcano under Pine Island Glacier.

That explains why it, Thwaites and Totten Glacier are sliding into the sea, the pulses of warm water that we know reach there have nothing to do with it.

Stuff and nonsense. No volcanoes under the Totten glacier in East Antarctica and those volcanoes have been there for a very long time, including when Antarctica truly was the frozen continent.
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Re: Antarctica is melting faster than anyone thought

Postby HBS Guy » 28 Jun 2018, 18:11

Oh dear, Bojack Horseman is raining on Lee’s parade, quoting what the paper actually said.

Lee then produced a graph of warming at both poles, showing no warming in Antarctica.

As was discussed elsewhere, it is only the edges, where the ice meets the sea that the ice is melting so Lees’ beaut chart is meaningless. Shows lovely warming at the Arctic tho—as the ice disappears the dark sea absorbs sunlight and so becomes warmer.

Antarctica is also a large continent, larger than Australia so a line in a chart for Antarctica is meaningless. Parts of Antarctica now get rain and parts have green plants on them. Plenty AGW there but it is the pulses of warm seawater coming from oceans heated by AGW that melt the Antarctic ice.
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Re: Antarctica is melting faster than anyone thought

Postby HBS Guy » 28 Jun 2018, 18:50

Lees finishes with a piece of crap:

The bottom one shows the 60-70's period where they thought CO2 would cause global cooling.


A couple people here or there might have thought the decrease in temperatures for a while there might cause an ice age but the honors go to an American scientist by the name of Sawyer who correctly (and bravely in view of cooling for a couple decades then) said it would warm and gave an accurate prediction of the magnitude. As I tweeted:

“global surface temperature rose about 0.5 °C between the early 1970s and 2000. . .global temperatures had. . .been falling. . .up to the early 1970s, Sawyer’s prediction of . .of the. . magnitude of the warming. . .the most remarkable long-range forecast ever. . .”

Cooling was not the consensus in the 60s & 70s, that was always AGW.
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Re: Antarctica is melting faster than anyone thought

Postby HBS Guy » 28 Jun 2018, 20:30

Parakeelia millions!


@PolAnimalAus More

No #globalcooling
“In four pages Sawyer summarized what was known about the role of carbon dioxide in enhancing the natural greenhouse effect, and made a remarkable prediction of the warming expected at the end of the twentieth century. . .”


@PolAnimalAus 16m16 minutes ago More

“He concluded that the 25% increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide predicted to occur by 2000 corresponded to an increase of 0.6 °C in world temperature.

In fact the global surface temperature rose about 0.5 °C between the early 1970s and 2000.”

Accurate prediction of WARMING!


Parakeelia millions! @PolAnimalAus 14m14 minutes ago More

Clearly, and despite lies to the contrary, it is clear that cooling was NOT a consensus in the 60s & 70s. AGW was predicted with startling accuracy by a scientist who knew his stuff! There is no cooling now either! Both poles have melting ice and thawing permafrost! BOTH poles!


Parakeelia millions! @PolAnimalAus 11m11 minutes ago More

As a result sea level rise is accelerating. No ice age scammer has even TRIED to explain away sea level rise! Not a one! Why is that you think? Sea levels rise for two reasons:

1. land ice melt. Antarctica is melting and glaciers are nearly all retreating. Funny for an ice age!


Parakeelia millions! @PolAnimalAus 8m8 minutes ago More

2. Thermal expansion. As seas get warmer, and they are, the water molecules vibrate faster and further. This means the molecules move further apart and that is why the seas are expanding as they warm

The faster molecules are can leave the surface of the seas, become water vapor


Parakeelia millions! @PolAnimalAus 6m6 minutes ago More

That is why 1 in 500 or 1000 year rains happen nowadays: much more evaporation. Atmosphere gas molecules also have more energy so air can now hold 8% more moisture than in 1900. That moisture precipitates when the air cools over land, up mountain sides. AGW=more precipitation!


Parakeelia millions! @PolAnimalAus 4m4 minutes ago More

Sometimes a thunderstorm moves over warmer land and updrafts in the thunderstorm is much bigger. Moist air sent way up, cools, freezes, freezes more moisture around ice nuclei, falls still accreting ice till below cloud level

AGW = more hail, bigger hailstones. Plenty hail now!


Parakeelia millions! @PolAnimalAus now More

Rising sea levels, more precipitation especially as hail are all signs of #AnthropogenicGlobalWarming as I believe I have spelled out.

If we are in an ice age why are sea levels rising? Why is there more precipitation especially as hail? Anyone answer this? Anyone THINKING yet?

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Re: Antarctica is melting faster than anyone thought

Postby HBS Guy » 28 Jun 2018, 21:41

And Booby once again mistakes precipitation for cooling.

Looks like the alps will get a bit more snow (precipitation) and Booby mistakes that, once again, for cooling. The crap he posted stated clearly that some snow had MELTED but our hero just jumped right over that and posted some crap by Dubyne that he will believe implicitly come what may.

Wasn’t just Hansen made good predictions, there was Sawyer in the 70s predicted 0.6°C warming to 2000: it warmed 0.5°C.

Globe is clearly warming and sea levels are rising as Antarctica adds to meltwater swelling the oceans.

Not a single scammer has made a reference to rise in sea level. Not something they can explain away.
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