Predicted warming this century

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Predicted warming this century

Postby HBS Guy » 20 Jun 2018, 02:09

Climate Change of 4°C Global Warming above Pre-industrial Levels
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Xiaoxin WangDabang JiangEmail authorXianmei Lang

Abstract

Using a set of numerical experiments from 39 CMIP5 climate models, we project the emergence time for 4◦C global warming with respect to pre-industrial levels and associated climate changes under the RCP8.5 greenhouse gas concentration scenario. Results show that, according to the 39 models, the median year in which 4◦C global warming will occur is 2084. Based on the median results of models that project a 4◦C global warming by 2100, land areas will generally exhibit stronger warming than the oceans annually and seasonally, and the strongest enhancement occurs in the Arctic, with the exception of the summer season. Change signals for temperature go outside its natural internal variabilities globally, and the signal-tonoise ratio averages 9.6 for the annual mean and ranges from 6.3 to 7.2 for the seasonal mean over the globe, with the greatest values appearing at low latitudes because of low noise. Decreased precipitation generally occurs in the subtropics, whilst increased precipitation mainly appears at high latitudes. The precipitation changes in most of the high latitudes are greater than the background variability, and the global mean signal-to-noise ratio is 0.5 and ranges from 0.2 to 0.4 for the annual and seasonal means, respectively. Attention should be paid to limiting global warming to 1.5◦C, in which case temperature and precipitation will experience a far more moderate change than the natural internal variability. Large inter-model disagreement appears at high latitudes for temperature changes and at mid and low latitudes for precipitation changes. Overall, the intermodel consistency is better for temperature than for precipitation.

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Re: Predicted warming this century

Postby DonDeeHippy » 20 Jun 2018, 09:03

HBS Guy wrote:
Climate Change of 4°C Global Warming above Pre-industrial Levels
Authors
Authors and affiliations
Xiaoxin WangDabang JiangEmail authorXianmei Lang

Abstract

Using a set of numerical experiments from 39 CMIP5 climate models, we project the emergence time for 4◦C global warming with respect to pre-industrial levels and associated climate changes under the RCP8.5 greenhouse gas concentration scenario. Results show that, according to the 39 models, the median year in which 4◦C global warming will occur is 2084. Based on the median results of models that project a 4◦C global warming by 2100, land areas will generally exhibit stronger warming than the oceans annually and seasonally, and the strongest enhancement occurs in the Arctic, with the exception of the summer season. Change signals for temperature go outside its natural internal variabilities globally, and the signal-tonoise ratio averages 9.6 for the annual mean and ranges from 6.3 to 7.2 for the seasonal mean over the globe, with the greatest values appearing at low latitudes because of low noise. Decreased precipitation generally occurs in the subtropics, whilst increased precipitation mainly appears at high latitudes. The precipitation changes in most of the high latitudes are greater than the background variability, and the global mean signal-to-noise ratio is 0.5 and ranges from 0.2 to 0.4 for the annual and seasonal means, respectively. Attention should be paid to limiting global warming to 1.5◦C, in which case temperature and precipitation will experience a far more moderate change than the natural internal variability. Large inter-model disagreement appears at high latitudes for temperature changes and at mid and low latitudes for precipitation changes. Overall, the intermodel consistency is better for temperature than for precipitation.

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ok except for the red bits was clear as mud.
so is this saying the higher the altitude.. more rain ?
my scientense isn't good this morning :bgrin
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Re: Predicted warming this century

Postby HBS Guy » 20 Jun 2018, 10:09

Saying the globe will hit 4°C temperature increase by 2084.
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Re: Predicted warming this century

Postby MilesAway » 20 Jun 2018, 13:29

HBS Guy wrote:Saying the globe will hit 4°C temperature increase by 2084.

Maybe.... :bike :bike
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Re: Predicted warming this century

Postby HBS Guy » 20 Jun 2018, 17:16

Be more like 2100. After I am safely and cosily dead in either case.
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Re: Predicted warming this century

Postby MilesAway » 21 Jun 2018, 13:00

HBS Guy wrote:Be more like 2100. After I am safely and cosily dead in either case.

If there were any chance of a 4 degree rise in global temperature in the next 80 years we would already be seeing mass anarchy!
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Re: Predicted warming this century

Postby HBS Guy » 21 Jun 2018, 13:47

Who tells the man in the street?

Why do you think there are so many ice age scammers on social media? Some will be paid by fossil fuel interests who will give them the line to take. Dubyne himself knows nothing about climate, basic science etc. That is why it is so easy to poke holes in his crap.

I am concerned not for myself, will be OK in Tassie but for the next generation in my family.

I think this summer could be a bastard, make sure your Mum, gran, your kids etc will be OK.
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Re: Predicted warming this century

Postby MilesAway » 21 Jun 2018, 14:18

HBS Guy wrote:Who tells the man in the street?

Why do you think there are so many ice age scammers on social media? Some will be paid by fossil fuel interests who will give them the line to take. Dubyne himself knows nothing about climate, basic science etc. That is why it is so easy to poke holes in his crap.

I am concerned not for myself, will be OK in Tassie but for the next generation in my family.

I think this summer could be a bastard, make sure your Mum, gran, your kids etc will be OK.

Just because someone is off their collective face on youtube doesn't mean the earth is on track to warm 4C in 80 years!

Grow a brain mate!

If the planet we live on was seriously entertaining a 4 degree rise in temperature over the next 80 years we would be total anarchy now and that my friend is my alleged fact :tweed
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Re: Predicted warming this century

Postby HBS Guy » 21 Jun 2018, 15:53

DRAH, 1984 for 4°C warming is very much worst case scenario. But we are not serious enough about reducing emissions. So lives and property will have to be lost on a huge scale before action is taken, the action will be rushed and much more expensive than it need be but that is what happens when you ignore the warming signs.
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Re: Predicted warming this century

Postby MilesAway » 21 Jun 2018, 16:36

HBS Guy wrote:DRAH, 1984 for 4°C warming is very much worst case scenario. But we are not serious enough about reducing emissions. So lives and property will have to be lost on a huge scale before action is taken, the action will be rushed and much more expensive than it need be but that is what happens when you ignore the warming signs.

Yeh, warning signs etc but straight out lying about a world ending in 80 years is counter-productive.

Unless you're a femo **** of course.... :bike :bike
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Re: Predicted warming this century

Postby HBS Guy » 21 Jun 2018, 17:02

It is the worst case—could happen.

The way wildfires/bushfires are burning trees it is not that unlikely that it will happen as and when said.
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Re: Predicted warming this century

Postby MilesAway » 22 Jun 2018, 12:56

HBS Guy wrote:It is the worst case—could happen.

The way wildfires/bushfires are burning trees it is not that unlikely that it will happen as and when said.

Probability and colourful language: what a combination- no wonder it makes for great copy!
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