If the sun went into a GSM

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If the sun went into a GSM

Postby HBS Guy » 18 May 2018, 08:16

Bit more about this mythical belief a GSM is happening now and will cause an ice age:

[The global mean temperature difference is shown for the time period 1900 to 2100 for the IPCC A2 emissions scenario. The red line shows predicted temperature change for the current level of solar activity, the blue line shows predicted temperature change for solar activity at the much lower level of the Maunder Minimum, and the black line shows observed temperatures through 2010. Illustration: Adapted from Feulner & Rahmstorf (2010) in Geophysical Research Letters by SkepticalScience.com

Where is the ice age?

1. We have warmed 1.2°C since 1880. A GSM would cool by less than 0.3°C. No ice age.

2. We have put 46% more CO2 (etc) into the atmosphere since 1880

3. The LIA was like 0.5°C cooler than early 1900s temperatures, we have moved like 1°C from that.

4. The seas store an immense amount of heat

5. AGW would still work in a GSM, still CO2 in the atmosphere, Earth still tries to cool by emitting IR

Scientific thinking seems to be that the sun will enter into a GSM in 2050. Not 2019 or 2015 or 2030 or any of that crap peddled by snake oil sellers.

AGW will have heated the earth even more by 2050, meaning an ice age then, impossible already now, won’t even be considered even by unthinking clowns.

The Abstract:
[1] The current exceptionally long minimum of solar activity has led to the suggestion that the Sun might experience a new grand minimum in the next decades, a prolonged period of low activity similar to the Maunder minimum in the late 17th century. The Maunder minimum is connected to the Little Ice Age, a time of markedly lower temperatures, in particular in the Northern hemisphere. Here we use a coupled climate model to explore the effect of a 21st‐century grand minimum on future global temperatures, finding a moderate temperature offset of no more than −0.3°C in the year 2100 relative to a scenario with solar activity similar to recent decades. This temperature decrease is much smaller than the warming expected from anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions by the end of the century.

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Re: If the sun went into a GSM

Postby MilesAway » 18 May 2018, 19:01

....your thread title forgot to include a question mark!

(any particular reason????)

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Re: If the sun went into a GSM

Postby HBS Guy » 18 May 2018, 19:09

Laziness, illiteracy???????

Enough ? for you? :bike
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