Great blog on the Arctic

For scientific papers on AGW, record happenings in the Arctic and the Greenland, Himalayan and Antarctic icesheets. Also weatherstorms and higher than average rainfalls and other extreme weather events.

Great blog on the Arctic

Postby HBS Guy » 08 May 2018, 09:04

hhttp://neven1.typepad.com/blog/

Talks of Arctic ice extent and volume, trends and the like.
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Re: Great blog on the Arctic

Postby HBS Guy » 08 May 2018, 09:06

Here he talks about April:
The maximum for sea ice volume was reached during April. According to the PIOMAS model, it peaked on April 16th at 22,376 km3, which is the second lowest maximum on record, 1594 km3 above last year's stunning record low maximum, and 301 km3 below 2011's maximum. The total freeze during the 2017/2018 freezing season was the highest since 2013, but not all that much above the 2006-2017 average. This bar graph shows total freeze for the 2006-2018 period:

Image



Trends in Arctic ice are clear:

Extent:
Image

Volume:
Image

Clearly, the odd blips are just minor fluctuations on a long term trend: ENSO, the El Nino/La Nina pattern has an effect as has the Pacific and Atlantic Decadal Oscillations. A warm Pacific is sending energy into the Arctic and the Arctic is increasingly prone to hot air pushing in from Siberia.

http://psc.apl.washington.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/
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Re: Great blog on the Arctic

Postby MilesAway » 08 May 2018, 14:24

DMI temp was crazy yesterday and the day before.... one would hope it has somewhat normalized since then!!!!!!!!!
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Re: Great blog on the Arctic

Postby MilesAway » 08 May 2018, 14:26

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Re: Great blog on the Arctic

Postby HBS Guy » 08 May 2018, 18:05

Will likely take off again—warm air is pushing into the Arctic from Siberia. That blip today is tiny, don’t build hopes on it.
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Re: Great blog on the Arctic

Postby MilesAway » 08 May 2018, 18:17

HBS Guy wrote:Will likely take off again—warm air is pushing into the Arctic from Siberia. That blip today is tiny, don’t build hopes on it.

Yeh, well, I do actually.... Anomaly can't grow exponentially!!!!
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Re: Great blog on the Arctic

Postby HBS Guy » 08 May 2018, 18:37

No?
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Re: Great blog on the Arctic

Postby MilesAway » 08 May 2018, 18:44

HBS Guy wrote:No?

Well, I pray it can't!

It would take some serious metrics to make me start to see it, ...!
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Re: Great blog on the Arctic

Postby HBS Guy » 08 May 2018, 19:01

Keep looking, will keep rising (with some falls) this week at least.
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Re: Great blog on the Arctic

Postby MilesAway » 08 May 2018, 19:06

HBS Guy wrote:Keep looking, will keep rising (with some falls) this week at least.

I will be watching: like the rest of the whole planet!

You know I like the global sea ice metric aswell so I will be looking to see if that also goes a bit crazy!
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Re: Great blog on the Arctic

Postby HBS Guy » 08 May 2018, 19:09

Antarctica is also hot right now.
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Re: Great blog on the Arctic

Postby MilesAway » 08 May 2018, 19:40

HBS Guy wrote:Antarctica is also hot right now.

Yeh, I saw that... Antartica is weird because it has a continuous latitude of water surrounding it: I would be looking toward the Artic for the first signs of run-away climate change but of course I like the global sea ice metric for a reason... weird is worth taking note of!!
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Re: Great blog on the Arctic

Postby HBS Guy » 08 May 2018, 20:19

The southern Jet Stream is also changing slowing and becoming chaotic. I think there will be more escapes of Antarctic air north, most likely in winter but who knows. No continent (Eurasia) near so no systematic invasion of warm air/pushing out cold polar air like with the Arctic.

Main thing is watching the ice sheets and glaciers there. Especially with El Ninos.
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Re: Great blog on the Arctic

Postby MilesAway » 09 May 2018, 12:15

HBS Guy wrote:The southern Jet Stream is also changing slowing and becoming chaotic. I think there will be more escapes of Antarctic air north, most likely in winter but who knows. No continent (Eurasia) near so no systematic invasion of warm air/pushing out cold polar air like with the Arctic.

Main thing is watching the ice sheets and glaciers there. Especially with El Ninos.

I thought the circumpolar current was tightening and that was being reflected in the atmosphere?!!?
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Re: Great blog on the Arctic

Postby MilesAway » 09 May 2018, 12:20

HBS Guy wrote:The southern Jet Stream is also changing slowing and becoming chaotic. I think there will be more escapes of Antarctic air north, most likely in winter but who knows. No continent (Eurasia) near so no systematic invasion of warm air/pushing out cold polar air like with the Arctic.

Main thing is watching the ice sheets and glaciers there. Especially with El Ninos.

I thought the fact of it being cut off by a latitude of water was of great significance.... that's my basic thinking! :yak yak
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Re: Great blog on the Arctic

Postby HBS Guy » 09 May 2018, 19:01

Won’t be like the Arctic but it will warm & the ice will melt.
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Re: Great blog on the Arctic

Postby MilesAway » 10 May 2018, 15:05

HBS Guy wrote:Won’t be like the Arctic but it will warm & the ice will melt.

Yes, that will truly mean trouble.

Like a lock nut it could also be used by denialists as the ultimate indicator!

(Which it is btw...)
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