Warm Arctic, cold northern USA

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Warm Arctic, cold northern USA

Postby HBS Guy » 03 Apr 2018, 11:28

Very warm Arctic in early April

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As an April snowstorm strikes the U.S. Northeast, major global weather stories related to climate change are unfolding in real time. For today, we again find that none of the key climate zones feature below average temperatures even as a ten-day-long Arctic warm spell appears to be on tap.


Of course, St Dubyne the Dubious will only mention the below average temps and his sheeple will lap it up and NEVER consider checking for themselves or doing a wider reading. Just look at Booby here “318 pages of evidence.”

Again, warm air entering the Arctic drives cold Arctic air southwards. On a global scale—no change—but locally, temperatures drop south of the Arctic, warm in the Arctic. The more rapidly warming Arctic compared to the warming middle latitudes is going to drive weather for years yet and eventually new weather systems will form as the Arctic becomes relatively ice free in summer.

Warm winds driving northward over eastern Siberia, on the back side of a high pressure ridge, are delivering yet one more big dose of near or above freezing temperatures to this Arctic region. From the Chukchi Sea through the Bering Strait and on into East Siberia, temperatures range from 10 to 22 degrees Celsius above average. The Bering itself has been mostly swept clean of sea ice — with severe record low ice extent readings for this zone during early April.


Throughout winter, the Bering and Chukchi have received wave after wave of much warmer than normal air from the ocean zone to the south. This tendency for warm air propagating northward through the Pacific is one that is often triggered by La Nina — a periodic pattern of Pacific Equatorial surface water cooling that became a dominant feature of 2018 winter weather. However, globally warmer than normal ocean waters and, in particular, much warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the Northeastern Pacific appear to have greatly enhanced the heat influx.


Image

There is little doubt possible that the globe is warming up. The next El Nino, which could occur this year, could see very unpleasant conditions indeed.

These warm waters at the middle to northern latitudes have developed a pathway that enhances the northward flow of tropical air masses over the Pacific Ocean. Meanwhile La Nina’s Equatorial cooling combines with climate change’s amplified polar warming to slow down the Jet Stream — further enabling this south-to-north heat transfer. As we have seen time and time again, human-forced global warming generated chiefly by fossil fuel burning is developing an atmospheric and oceanic handshake with past understood synoptic trends to produce an out-sized Arctic warming.


Image

Clearly, the idea of an ice age now is ridiculous.

Please read the complete article. It is well-supported by relevant links and images. Robert Scribbler does not run ads and does not ask for donations.

https://robertscribbler.com/2018/04/02/seven-inches-of-snow-dumped-on-northeast-as-another-major-arctic-warm-up-is-underway/

The delicious thing is, as the hot air streamed into the Arctic pushing the cold air out, the snake oil salesman put out a video talking about the “icy Arctic” :rofl :rofl :rofl

An early typhoon, from the same bit of garbage video, must also be a sign of the ice age tho typhoons, like all big cyclones, are created by warm seas with the warm seas feeding the gathering storm with energy and moisture. Garbage, junk science, refutable by anyone with just high school science yet people believe it implicitly and NEVER think to check up for themselves or stop to reason. Changing magnetosphere changing the winds? Oxygen and nitrogen are magnetic? Nah, winds flow from high pressure areas to lower pressure areas. The Antarctic, it won’t surprise you, is seeing more sea ice form as we draw close to winter in the summer hemisphere (this assumes Dubyne is telling the truth, always a rash assumption.)
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Re: Warm Arctic, cold northern USA

Postby MilesAway » 03 Apr 2018, 14:23

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Re: Warm Arctic, cold northern USA

Postby HBS Guy » 03 Apr 2018, 17:48

It could send a lot of ice past Greenland’s east coast, interfering with the Gulf Stream.
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Re: Warm Arctic, cold northern USA

Postby pinkeye » 03 Apr 2018, 22:50

HBS Guy wrote:It could send a lot of ice past Greenland’s east coast, interfering with the Gulf Stream.


Well if the Gulf Stream is affected, and it changes.. we're all in for a whole world of pain.
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Re: Warm Arctic, cold northern USA

Postby Dax » 04 Apr 2018, 07:29

MilesAway wrote:Beufort Gyre seems to be an issue, apparently!

https://www.pri.org/stories/2018-01-06/scientists-are-keeping-close-eye-beaufort-gyre


This could be why some weather observers are saying,we are about to enter a mini ice age this month. Of course it doesn't look like it with the balmy weather we are getting. We have entered a situation where we have no idea what climate or weather will do.
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Re: Warm Arctic, cold northern USA

Postby HBS Guy » 04 Apr 2018, 10:37

The Beauford Gyre has reversed before and Europe had its coldest winters for many a year back then. If it does happen deniers will happily point to a cold Europe and say “Ice Age!” even tho the Gyre might have reversed due to AGW. Most people are not very smart.
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Re: Warm Arctic, cold northern USA

Postby MilesAway » 04 Apr 2018, 14:14

pinkeye wrote:
HBS Guy wrote:It could send a lot of ice past Greenland’s east coast, interfering with the Gulf Stream.


Well if the Gulf Stream is affected, and it changes.. we're all in for a whole world of pain.

I would hazard a guess that the gulf stream could only really be affected by Greenland melting. But, Jovial could be right in that extra sea ice from the arctic could do the job: I don't know of course.
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Re: Warm Arctic, cold northern USA

Postby MilesAway » 04 Apr 2018, 14:16

Dax wrote:
MilesAway wrote:Beufort Gyre seems to be an issue, apparently!

https://www.pri.org/stories/2018-01-06/scientists-are-keeping-close-eye-beaufort-gyre


This could be why some weather observers are saying,we are about to enter a mini ice age this month. Of course it doesn't look like it with the balmy weather we are getting. We have entered a situation where we have no idea what climate or weather will do.


Like who, exactly?
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Re: Warm Arctic, cold northern USA

Postby Dax » 04 Apr 2018, 15:11

MilesAway wrote:
Dax wrote:
MilesAway wrote:Beufort Gyre seems to be an issue, apparently!

https://www.pri.org/stories/2018-01-06/scientists-are-keeping-close-eye-beaufort-gyre


This could be why some weather observers are saying,we are about to enter a mini ice age this month. Of course it doesn't look like it with the balmy weather we are getting. We have entered a situation where we have no idea what climate or weather will do.


Like who, exactly?


Like this bloke, http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... -2025.html

Predicting weather and climate in this era, will only get worse and more bizarre. We no longer have stable climate, environment or ecology, it's all buggered. Who knows what will happen and when, now they've discovered antarctic glaciers are melting from underneath and becoming unstable, which is caused by rising sea temps. This is happening about a century before they thought it would 5 years ago, now all we can do is watch and hopefully avoid the resulting chaos ahead.
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Re: Warm Arctic, cold northern USA

Postby MilesAway » 04 Apr 2018, 16:34

Dax wrote:
MilesAway wrote:
Dax wrote:
MilesAway wrote:Beufort Gyre seems to be an issue, apparently!

https://www.pri.org/stories/2018-01-06/scientists-are-keeping-close-eye-beaufort-gyre


This could be why some weather observers are saying,we are about to enter a mini ice age this month. Of course it doesn't look like it with the balmy weather we are getting. We have entered a situation where we have no idea what climate or weather will do.


Like who, exactly?


Like this bloke, http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... -2025.html

Predicting weather and climate in this era, will only get worse and more bizarre. We no longer have stable climate, environment or ecology, it's all buggered. Who knows what will happen and when, now they've discovered antarctic glaciers are melting from underneath and becoming unstable, which is caused by rising sea temps. This is happening about a century before they thought it would 5 years ago, now all we can do is watch and hopefully avoid the resulting chaos ahead.

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Re: Warm Arctic, cold northern USA

Postby HBS Guy » 04 Apr 2018, 17:11

Another moron with the GSM = Ice Age nonsense. I would not worry about that for a minute! The sun is going into a minimum which it does roughly every 11 years. That is all. Does not affect the TSI we receive from the sun. Talking of TSI, it has been a tad lower since the 1980s—yet the world warmed substantially!
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Re: Warm Arctic, cold northern USA

Postby Dax » 05 Apr 2018, 06:24

This moron as you call him has got many weather predictions right and is not saying there is no global warming, just a slight variation for awhile. Having read a bit more, it seems the media has bumped it up to sound like a mini ice age, when all he is predicting is colder winters for a few years.

As for the TSI, that didn't seem to effect previous ice ages, one being just over 12000 years ago. Our weather patterns are becoming very unpredictable and in my opinion, looking at all the scenarios and predictions, may give us a better opportunity to cope. When you look at how people are approaching these changes, it's easy to see, the vast majority won't cope in any way. Especially urban people, who do nothing to mitigate climate change, just continuously contribute to it.

Can't see it cooling down myself, the temps where I live at the moment, are way above what they have been in the past and don't look like dropping significantly to put us into a cooling period.
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Re: Warm Arctic, cold northern USA

Postby HBS Guy » 05 Apr 2018, 08:16

TSI does affect ice ages, not so much variations in the suns output as to how much is received on Earth due to variations in the inclination of the earth and our orbit.

The normal solar minimum every 11 years does not affect our climate.

What will bring bursts of cold weather here, like the snow right up into Queensland, is the southern Jet Stream becoming disorganised, which it is. This will allow Antarctic air to reach us, super cold fronts and the like. More bursts of snow outside the normal times and places (late fall, winter, early spring in the Alps.)

What I am concerned about, the sun is going to increase its activity and we will get the normal TSI we have not received since the 1980s—what will that do to temperatures? What if the sun goes into a slightly more active state?

We know glaciers on Greenland and on West and East Antarctica are retreating fast and that is causing an accelerating rate of sea level rise, the sun becoming a bit more brighter is going to exacerbate all that!

There are an awful lot of snake oil salesmen selling the less intelligent and the more emotionally susceptible on the idea we will move into an ice age this decade and fleecing the suckers for donations.
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Re: Warm Arctic, cold northern USA

Postby MilesAway » 05 Apr 2018, 14:31

Dax wrote:This moron as you call him has got many weather predictions right and is not saying there is no global warming, just a slight variation for awhile. Having read a bit more, it seems the media has bumped it up to sound like a mini ice age, when all he is predicting is colder winters for a few years.

As for the TSI, that didn't seem to effect previous ice ages, one being just over 12000 years ago. Our weather patterns are becoming very unpredictable and in my opinion, looking at all the scenarios and predictions, may give us a better opportunity to cope. When you look at how people are approaching these changes, it's easy to see, the vast majority won't cope in any way. Especially urban people, who do nothing to mitigate climate change, just continuously contribute to it.

Can't see it cooling down myself, the temps where I live at the moment, are way above what they have been in the past and don't look like dropping significantly to put us into a cooling period.

Which is why you alluded to climate... :Hi
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Re: Warm Arctic, cold northern USA

Postby HBS Guy » 11 Apr 2018, 11:09

Watch this TEDx talk by a scientist studying the Arctic, then think back to the NH winter just passed:

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Re: Warm Arctic, cold northern USA

Postby HBS Guy » 11 Apr 2018, 11:10

About the Jet Stream and how AGW and Arctic Amplification affects it and how that affects weather in lower latitudes:



Dr Francis deserves a Nobel Prize for her work on the Jet Stream, Polar Vortex and how they are changing etc due to AGW.
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Re: Warm Arctic, cold northern USA

Postby HBS Guy » 11 Apr 2018, 11:19

Dr Francis discussing new research on how Arctic Amplification is affecting weather around the world:



These are qualified, experienced scientists discussing the Arctic and its affect on weather in lower latitudes. Not a drop of snake oil.

The Antarctic is experiencing similar affects but because it is a continent not an ocean the results are not as extreme as in the Arctic. But ice is melting—the huge Pine Island glacier is retreating and calving more rapidly. The Southern Jet Stream is becoming disorganised like the Northern Jet Stream and Antarctic air can make it to Australasia etc
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Re: Warm Arctic, cold northern USA

Postby Dax » 11 Apr 2018, 13:37

Great explanation in that youtube, it makes understanding the weather much easier and logical. As to what happens next, is anyones guess, science is able to follow the trends, but so far not able to predict them or the timing. Going to be an interesting future that's for sure.
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Re: Warm Arctic, cold northern USA

Postby HBS Guy » 11 Apr 2018, 18:06

“May you live in interesting times!” is supposed to be a curse, one we are all affected by.

End of next year the sun will be in its new cycle and sunspot numbers increasing, etc.

That weather forecaster using sunspots—nah.
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Re: Warm Arctic, cold northern USA

Postby Dax » 11 Apr 2018, 19:33

HBS Guy wrote:“May you live in interesting times!” is supposed to be a curse, one we are all affected by.

End of next year the sun will be in its new cycle and sunspot numbers increasing, etc.

That weather forecaster using sunspots—nah.


To me, living in interesting times, is exciting and progressive, if you live with the changes safely. In this regard, it probably depends on how you look at and approach life. We've been aware of future of climate change for decades, yet very few have made changes to lifestyle, or preparations. For some reason most humans always believe they still have time and have no need to change at the moment, we see the results of that when nature gives warnings of adverse changes coming. Even humans give warnings of the disasters they are about to create, so in both cases the majority do nothing, but more of the same and in the end become cannon fodder for the event they knew was coming.

Climate change, is being approached in the same ways as we approach war, we can see it coming, but deny it will effect us , or have time to get out of the way. What they have claimed the time line would be with climate change, everyone is still believing. Even though the goal posts have changed, what was predicted for the end of this century, is happening now, so the timing has changed dramatically and still nothing is done. Time is a human concept and not real, natures response to the life force that is desperately trying to destroy it, is already occurring 50 to 100 years before the predictions ideological humanity is clinging to.

That youtube link to the jet stream lady, answered a few questions I've had regarding what is predicted and what is happening. Now I understand much better, how the jet streams operate in Arctic zones and how it relates to the "southern oscillation system", driven by the great southern ocean, which drives the tides and currents of the oceans of the world and a massive contributor to weather around the globe, as it controls the oceans.

The warming of antarctic waters, melting glaciers from underneath, is not much different to what is happening in the arctic regions. It would be interesting to understand how the jet streams above Antarctica are effected by climate change and the warming.

The article about the min ice age, as I pointed out may have been hijacked and pumped up by the media, seems correct. This link provides a more logical explanation of the prediction which is for the coldest winter we've had for decades. Much different too years of a mini ice age. The antarctic jet steams reacting to climate change, could react like the northern ones and push heaps of cold air into Aus, creating a very cold winter in the south. Who knows, if our predictions are almost Ia century out of whack compared to what we are seeing, may turn into a rapid acceleration of climate change and the next couple of years, could see a dramatic increase of nature driven ferocious catastrophes.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... oming.html
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Re: Warm Arctic, cold northern USA

Postby HBS Guy » 11 Apr 2018, 20:18

A mass of cold air did leave the Antarctic Peninsula heading north—it hit the east coast of Australia causing snow as far north as southern Queensland, that air not not stopped by the Southern Jet Stream. The ice age people had a field day but really their reasoning is kindergarten simplistic.
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Re: Warm Arctic, cold northern USA

Postby MilesAway » 12 Apr 2018, 16:26

Dax wrote:
HBS Guy wrote:“May you live in interesting times!” is supposed to be a curse, one we are all affected by.

End of next year the sun will be in its new cycle and sunspot numbers increasing, etc.

That weather forecaster using sunspots—nah.


To me, living in interesting times, is exciting and progressive, if you live with the changes safely. In this regard, it probably depends on how you look at and approach life. We've been aware of future of climate change for decades, yet very few have made changes to lifestyle, or preparations. For some reason most humans always believe they still have time and have no need to change at the moment, we see the results of that when nature gives warnings of adverse changes coming. Even humans give warnings of the disasters they are about to create, so in both cases the majority do nothing, but more of the same and in the end become cannon fodder for the event they knew was coming.

Climate change, is being approached in the same ways as we approach war, we can see it coming, but deny it will effect us , or have time to get out of the way. What they have claimed the time line would be with climate change, everyone is still believing. Even though the goal posts have changed, what was predicted for the end of this century, is happening now, so the timing has changed dramatically and still nothing is done. Time is a human concept and not real, natures response to the life force that is desperately trying to destroy it, is already occurring 50 to 100 years before the predictions ideological humanity is clinging to.

That youtube link to the jet stream lady, answered a few questions I've had regarding what is predicted and what is happening. Now I understand much better, how the jet streams operate in Arctic zones and how it relates to the "southern oscillation system", driven by the great southern ocean, which drives the tides and currents of the oceans of the world and a massive contributor to weather around the globe, as it controls the oceans.

The warming of antarctic waters, melting glaciers from underneath, is not much different to what is happening in the arctic regions. It would be interesting to understand how the jet streams above Antarctica are effected by climate change and the warming.

The article about the min ice age, as I pointed out may have been hijacked and pumped up by the media, seems correct. This link provides a more logical explanation of the prediction which is for the coldest winter we've had for decades. Much different too years of a mini ice age. The antarctic jet steams reacting to climate change, could react like the northern ones and push heaps of cold air into Aus, creating a very cold winter in the south. Who knows, if our predictions are almost Ia century out of whack compared to what we are seeing, may turn into a rapid acceleration of climate change and the next couple of years, could see a dramatic increase of nature driven ferocious catastrophes.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... oming.html

I think it's very different in the Southern Hemisphere because there is land surrounded by water as opposed to, well, a completely different scenario up north.

Apparently what happens in the water is reflected in the atmosphere and because there is a tightening of the oceanic current around Antarctica then that is why we don't get the rainfall in Western Australia like we used to: and that is a well known pattern that has been observed over 30 years.

Also, Antartica is a whole lot bigger than Greenland and thicker... and it's at the pole of course: so completely different scenarios! There must be multi-year sea ice there( around Antartica) but I don't think they even bother counting it....
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Re: Warm Arctic, cold northern USA

Postby Dax » 12 Apr 2018, 16:53

That's very true, the south is very different to the north, so we should expect different reactions to warming. Also it's so far from civilisation, it doesn't get the attention the north gets and being a continent, very different circumstances.

There was a tv show not that long ago which revolved around the changes and the effect it was having on penguin colonies. if I remember correctly, they say in most places of the antarctic, sea ice has disappeared in summer and is much less in winter. Suppose we won't have a clue about what effect it may have on use, until it happens.
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Re: Warm Arctic, cold northern USA

Postby HBS Guy » 12 Apr 2018, 18:28

A glacier broke down and slid into the sea as a thick mass of fractured ice. Penguins had to walk/waddle across the ice both ways to reach the sea to hunt for food to feed their chicks. 2 chicks out of a breeding colony of 40,000 birds survived.

Numpties think any sea ice around Antarctica is a sign of more cold but some of it is broken down glacier ice floating on the sea.
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Re: Warm Arctic, cold northern USA

Postby MilesAway » 13 Apr 2018, 16:34

Dax wrote:That's very true, the south is very different to the north, so we should expect different reactions to warming. Also it's so far from civilisation, it doesn't get the attention the north gets and being a continent, very different circumstances.

There was a tv show not that long ago which revolved around the changes and the effect it was having on penguin colonies. if I remember correctly, they say in most places of the antarctic, sea ice has disappeared in summer and is much less in winter. Suppose we won't have a clue about what effect it may have on use, until it happens.

It actually went the highest it's ever been a few years back, but then dropped to the lowest it's been... weird!

There was a global sea ice statistic (where you add up the North and South together, so the graph has a double dip characteristic to it!) that went off the charts for the last two years but as of late seems to have returned normal.

The global sea ice statistic is something people have been following lately exactly because those last couple of years WERE SO SUPER WERID!

Basically Antarctica will never completely melt because it's too big but any serious change is worth worrying about because that means the North is fried... the North will always get the damage first because it's sea ice at the North Pole, not land ice! The circumpolar current protects Antarctica from real damage but that current is changing,... so change is definately measurable! Big Business knows all this,... it's like politics: do they actually have to do anything in the publics eye or not?

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