More rain for a soggy Ohio/Mississippi valley

For scientific papers on AGW, record happenings in the Arctic and the Greenland, Himalayan and Antarctic icesheets. Also weatherstorms and higher than average rainfalls and other extreme weather events.

Open to guest posting.

Moderator: johnsmith

More rain for a soggy Ohio/Mississippi valley

Postby HBS Guy » 28 Feb 2018, 17:01

which have already had 5–15" of rain last week, now another 3–5" is heading their way:

The Ohio River Valley is now reeling from the worst flooding event of the past 20 years. Yet one more major event fueled by disruptions to the Earth’s atmosphere facilitated by human-caused climate change. But with another serious plume of moisture issuing from the warmer than normal waters of the Gulf of Mexico, more heavy rains are heading toward a storm-battered Central U.S.


“warmer than normal waters of the Gulf of Mexico” is the key. It is a phrase the snake oil salesman will never say. Anyway.

The set-up is similar to previous events of the past two weeks. A strong high pressure system over the Northeast is pulling a heavy load of moisture from a much warmer than normal Gulf of Mexico. Sea surface temperatures there, according to Earth Nullschool reanalysis, range from less than 1 C warmer than normal in the southern Gulf to as much as 5 C warmer than normal in the northern Gulf. Last week, these warmer than normal sea surfaces helped to fuel record atmospheric moisture levels along with historically heavy rains.


With AGW we have warmer seas and warmer air. This means more evaporation, more clouds and, eventually, more precipitation. We have certainly seen that.

The snake oil salesman tries to explain it away with “cosmic rays” becoming more common as the sun goes into its (normal) minimum. That answer is wrong: CRs do cause some nucleation in the atmosphere but the nuclei are too small to have water vapor condense on them. Two minutes with Prof Google will show that. Also: CRs do not put extra moisture in the air, pure snake oil, garbage.

This week’s atmospheric moisture pulse will be picked up by a trough sweeping into the Central U.S. over the next couple of days. There, it will help to pump up a series of heavy storms that are predicted to dump another 3-7 inches of rain over the Mississippi River Valley this week. Note that this is on top of the 5-15 inches of rain that has already been dumped over the region during the last two weeks.


In an ice age, if the globe really was cooling the colder air just couldn’t hold this much moisture and it would not have evaporated from colder seas. No wonder the snake oil salesman doesn’t mention the wild rain!

Persistent extreme weather patterns of this kind are an aspect of human-forced climate change in that polar warming can result in Jet Stream blocking patterns that cause weather systems to stick around or repeat for long periods of time. This is particularly the case with the storm system now developing in the Central U.S. For as the storm strengthens and moves slowly eastward, it is expected to deepen into a powerful coastal low. This low is predicted to then rake the Northeast U.S. coast with 60 mph winds, heavy rain, high surf and coastal flooding.

As the storm’s eastward passage is blocked by the same weather system that so recently warmed the far north to such extreme winter temperatures, it is expected to linger off the U.S. East Coast even as it intensifies. Due to this predicted stall, the Northeast U.S. is facing the potential of multiple storm tides in which wind-driven water piles up — exacerbating coastal flooding.

As the storm’s eastward passage is blocked by the same weather system that so recently warmed the far north to such extreme winter temperatures, it is expected to linger off the U.S. East Coast even as it intensifies. Due to this predicted stall, the Northeast U.S. is facing the potential of multiple storm tides in which wind-driven water piles up — exacerbating coastal flooding.


https://robertscribbler.com/2018/02/27/warmed-wet-and-blocked-another-storm-taking-aim-at-the-flooded-central-u-s-is-expected-to-transition-into-a-stalled-noreaster/
User avatar
HBS Guy
Tractors to Australia
 
Posts: 50031
Joined: 27 Oct 2009, 15:37

Return to Global Warming and Australian Energy Market

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest