A hole in winters heart. Unprecedented!

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A hole in winters heart. Unprecedented!

Postby HBS Guy » 26 Feb 2018, 21:34

(Today, on Sunday February 25, 2018 at 0900 UTC — temperatures rose to above freezing at the North Pole. This event, which is probably unprecedented or, at the very least, an extreme instance in the polar record, is an exemplar — or a good example — of the kinds of wrenching weather changes we can expect as a result of human-caused climate change. Image source: Earth Nullschool. Data source: Global Forecast System Model.)


https://robertscribbler.com/2018/02/25/a-hole-in-winters-heart-temperatures-rise-to-above-freezing-at-the-north-pole-in-february/

So, is that weather or climate? (We can say it is not natural variation!)

Weather and climate are inexorably married one to the other. Though weather is often variable and tied to locality, climate is broader-ranging and roughly characterized as average weather over 30 years. When climate changes, it ultimately changes average weather. It thus changes the rules in which weather occurs. So you can end up with weather events that are typically not common or have never been seen before — like category six hurricanes, much more heavy rainfall events, historic and unprecedented droughts, and above freezing temperatures at the North Pole during February even as Arctic air is driven south over Europe.

In the context of climate change, what we’re talking about is average global weather across the span of multiple decades. In some locations, this ongoing climate change has resulted in very little perceptible weather change. In other locations, and this is more and more-so the case, the changes to weather are both disruptive and profound.
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Re: A hole in winters heart. Unprecedented!

Postby HBS Guy » 27 Feb 2018, 08:08

The “Beast from the East:”

Warm, moist air is penetrating much further north than it would normally at a time when the North Pole is in complete darkness.

Cape Morris Jessup, the world's most northerly land-based weather station, in Greenland, touched 6 degrees late on Saturday, about 35 degrees above normal for this time of year.

Robert Rohede, a Zurich-based scientist with Berkeley Earth, posted on Twitter that Cape Morris Jessup had already recorded 61 hours above freezing so far in 2018.

The previous record of such relative was just 16 hours recorded to the end of April in 2011.

"Parts of Greenland are quite a bit warmer than most of Europe," Dr King said.

The cold snap will sink temperatures moderately below freezing in London each day until Friday. However, cities such as Berlin will dive to as low as minus 12 degrees and Moscow to minus 24.

With a weak jetstream, surface winds are taking an unusual course - bringing snow from the east and prompting some commentators to dub the event the "Beast from the East".

"For Britain and Ireland, most weather systems would typically blow in from the west, but [on Tuesday] we will see a cold front cross Britain from the east," Dr King said.


http://www.canberratimes.com.au/environment/climate-change/really-extreme-global-weather-event-leaves-scientists-aghast-20180225-p4z1q4.html

Fools will look at the local weather in UK/Europe and say “Ice Age!” Two fools we know have done that already. Of course, the snake oil salesman does not tell them of June temperatures in February for large parts of the US and Canada and above freezing in the dark Arctic Ocean! The Arctic has lost a serious amount of ice this northern hemisphere winter and the few weeks left where freezing temperatures can happen is not going to reverse that.

An ice–free Arctic is not far away at all. How we can reverse all this I don’t know. The political will won’t be there until a large, destructive flood happens on the US east or Gulf coasts.
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Re: A hole in winters heart. Unprecedented!

Postby HBS Guy » 27 Feb 2018, 09:06

Another article, quite short, on the extreme heat in the NE of North America:

https://grist.org/article/its-a-steamy-80-degrees-in-new-england-in-february-thats-bad/

80°F in New England and the two dupes are talking ice age on OzPol. Fucking morons.
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Re: A hole in winters heart. Unprecedented!

Postby johnsmith » 27 Feb 2018, 11:37

Beast from the East' sweeps across Europe as Arctic warming brings freak weather

A freak warming around the North Pole is sending a blast of Arctic cold over Europe in a sign of "wacky" weather that may happen more often with man-made global warming.

Scientists say the northern tip of Greenland has had a record-smashing 61 hours of temperatures above freezing so far this year, linked to a rare retreat of sea ice in the Arctic winter darkness.

Arctic Ocean sea ice is at a record low for late February, at 14.1 million square kilometres. That is about a million square kilometres less than normal, or roughly the size of Egypt.

Around the entire Arctic region, temperatures are now about 20C above normal, at minus 8C



http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-27/arctic-warming-creates-beast-from-the-east/9488130
FD.
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Re: A hole in winters heart. Unprecedented!

Postby HBS Guy » 27 Feb 2018, 14:22

Warm air pushing into the Arctic pushed cold air out. Morons like Booby and The Moronic cry “Ice Age!” and the snake oil salesman cheers them on and pockets their donations and the ad revenue they make possible.

It is to do with AGW which is faster at the poles (“Polar Amplification”) and weakens and makes chaotic the Jet Stream. That takes some thinking and referring to charts so does not appeal to lamebrains and boneheads. Nevertheless that is what is happening.
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Re: A hole in winters heart. Unprecedented!

Postby HBS Guy » 27 Feb 2018, 16:08

CRAZY!

Image
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Re: A hole in winters heart. Unprecedented!

Postby HBS Guy » 27 Feb 2018, 17:24

Hole in winter ice!

Image

Looking at the N. Greenland area, we find a fractured, thinning mess along a region of sea ice that should be meters thick and growing thicker at this time in February. Such a state would be remarkable during summer time, but is much more-so in what should be the dark chill of winter polar night.

To be clear, as Neven notes in his most recent Sea Ice Blog, it’s not simply wind blowing the ice around here. It’s melt due to temperatures rising between 40 and 60 F above average over a large region of the Arctic. A region that yesterday saw a 33-34 F (1-2 F above freezing) temperature at the North Pole.


https://robertscribbler.com/2018/02/26/a-large-area-of-open-water-forms-in-the-melting-sea-ice-north-of-greenland-during-february/
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Re: A hole in winters heart. Unprecedented!

Postby MilesAway » 28 Feb 2018, 02:12

HBS Guy wrote:CRAZY!

Image

Why does the graph only go up to 1995?
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Re: A hole in winters heart. Unprecedented!

Postby HBS Guy » 28 Feb 2018, 11:45

Because it is big and phpBB does not handle large images at all well. Right-click on the chart, select “Show image in new tab” and you will see the full chart.
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Re: A hole in winters heart. Unprecedented!

Postby MilesAway » 28 Feb 2018, 15:30

Obviously not wishing to jump the gun here: but I think we should keep a motherfucking close eye on that there fancy looking graph!!!!!

FMD!!
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Re: A hole in winters heart. Unprecedented!

Postby johnsmith » 28 Feb 2018, 16:09

MilesAway wrote:not wishing to jump the gun here


gun went off years ago ...
FD.
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Re: A hole in winters heart. Unprecedented!

Postby HBS Guy » 28 Feb 2018, 16:11

Here is a stat to think upon when watching Arctic sea ice disappear:

The heat it takes to turn 1cc of ice at 0°C to 1cc of water at 0°C will heat 1cc of 0°C water to 80°C.

So, when latent heat is no longer a major factor ocean heating in the Arctic is going to be a bloody big thing!
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Re: A hole in winters heart. Unprecedented!

Postby HBS Guy » 28 Feb 2018, 16:12

It is also likely that we will have an El Nino this year. Not official yet but lots of hot water is pooling in the Pacific.
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Re: A hole in winters heart. Unprecedented!

Postby HBS Guy » 28 Feb 2018, 21:01

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Re: A hole in winters heart. Unprecedented!

Postby MilesAway » 02 Mar 2018, 02:03

HBS Guy wrote:Here is a stat to think upon when watching Arctic sea ice disappear:

The heat it takes to turn 1cc of ice at 0°C to 1cc of water at 0°C will heat 1cc of 0°C water to 80°C.

So, when latent heat is no longer a major factor ocean heating in the Arctic is going to be a bloody big thing!

I might just keep that quote in mind for the next few decades!

:yak yak :beer :beer :beer :beer :beer :beer :beer :beer :beer

:buddy :OMG :OMG :OMG :OMG :OMG :OMG :OMG




:b :S :b
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Re: A hole in winters heart. Unprecedented!

Postby HBS Guy » 02 Mar 2018, 12:41

Along with the unusual warmth over the Arctic, scientists are monitoring the retreat of sea ice in the Bering Sea.

The ice coverage in the region is now at levels previously seen only in May or June, Mr Labe posted on Twitter, citing data from the US National Snow and Ice Data Centre.

While climate change itself is only likely to have exacerbated regional weather variability, the long-term shrinkage of sea ice has a reinforcing effect on global warming in a region already warming faster than anywhere else on the planet, Dr King said.

Ice reflects sunlight back to space. When it melts, the sea ice exposes more of the dark ocean beneath, which then absorbs that solar radiation, adding to the warming.

Sea ice coverage is currently at or close to record low levels at both the Arctic and Antarctic regions.

The impact of the relatively warm air in the Arctic could play out for months to come. Multi-year ice is likely to be thinner and more cracked, leading to a faster melt when spring arrives, Dr Meyer said.

While researchers had pegged 2050 as a possible year when the Arctic will become ice-free, this winter and the previous one - also unusually warm - had thrown those estimates out.


http://www.canberratimes.com.au/environment/climate-change/really-extreme-global-weather-event-leaves-scientists-aghast-20180225-p4z1q4.html
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Re: A hole in winters heart. Unprecedented!

Postby HBS Guy » 02 Mar 2018, 13:11

Paul Beckwith explains how the warm air turned up over Antarctica.

His is not a smooth video presentation and he certainly does not know public speaking! But his knowledge and passion for the subject shines through:

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Re: A hole in winters heart. Unprecedented!

Postby HBS Guy » 07 Mar 2018, 10:21

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Re: A hole in winters heart. Unprecedented!

Postby HBS Guy » 07 Mar 2018, 17:49

Here’s Where the Arctic’s Wildlife Will Make Its Last Stand

Forecasters say the region’s sea ice will dwindle to a strip above Greenland and Canada. There, polar bears and others will fight to survive.


https://www.nationalgeographic.com/magazine/2018/01/arctic-wildlife-sea-ice/

2050 will be when permanent Arctic ice will be reduced to that strip.

At the moment we have a weird scenario where in NH winters warm air makes it into the Arctic (sometimes pushing cold Arctic air out, over the UK and Europe this time) in winter and melts and breaks up ice. With spring the Jet Stream re-establishes itself (because temperatures warm faster on one side.) Arctic summers then stay cool, partly because of clouds, and the spring-summer melt is less than the winter melt!
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Re: A hole in winters heart. Unprecedented!

Postby HBS Guy » 07 Mar 2018, 18:00

In the North West Territories the permafrost is melting and that is causing more and bigger landslides:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/climate-landslide-nwt-1.4563635
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Re: A hole in winters heart. Unprecedented!

Postby HBS Guy » 07 Mar 2018, 18:33

From PNAS in 2013. http://www.pnas.org/content/111/9/3322.abstract “Using satellite measurements, this analysis directly quantifies how much the Arctic as viewed from space has darkened in response to the recent sea ice retreat. We find that this decline has caused 6.4 ± 0.9 W/m2 of radiative heating since 1979, considerably larger than expectations from models and recent less direct estimates. Averaged globally, this albedo change is equivalent to 25% of the direct forcing from CO2 during the past 30 y.”


(From: https://robertscribbler.com/2018/03/06/delving-further-into-uncharted-territory-arctic-sea-ice-greatly-weakened-at-start-of-spring-2018/#comments

We can see the outlook for Arctic ice is not good. So what? More heat: as light colored ice disappears dark ocean replaces it. The dark ocean absorbs sunlight and is warmed by it while the ice used to reflect the sunlight back to space. So weather systems like hurricanes can be fed even more energy and moisture. No wonder that climate scientists are considering introducing a Category 6 for hurricanes/tropical cyclones/typhoons.

Oh—and sea level rise from more thermal expansion.
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Re: A hole in winters heart. Unprecedented!

Postby HBS Guy » 17 Mar 2018, 14:57

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Re: A hole in winters heart. Unprecedented!

Postby HBS Guy » 17 Mar 2018, 21:59

We have talked of the warm—in winter—Arctic and we have talked of storms, like the procession of north easters hitting the New England part of the US.

These two factors are connected:

A new study led by pioneers in the emerging field of climate change attribution for extreme weather events (including the notable Dr. Jennifer Francis), finds:

Recent boreal winters have exhibited a large-scale seesaw temperature pattern characterized by an unusually warm Arctic and cold continents… Using a recently developed index of severe winter weather, we show that the occurrence of severe winter weather in the United States is significantly related to anomalies in pan-Arctic geopotential heights and temperatures.

In particular, the authors discovered that “winter storms were two to four times more likely when the Arctic is abnormally warm, compared to when it was abnormally cold.”

Stronger, More Frequent Storms

This is a rather big deal for a number of reasons. First, it’s an observational confirmation of earlier scientific work predicting just these kinds of extreme weather instances due to polar warming and related climate change. Second, it’s another indicator that human-caused climate change is pushing us into a period of much stormier weather for the North Atlantic region during fall and winter.


https://robertscribbler.com/2018/03/15/polar-warming-spawns-more-severe-winter-storms/

If you really want to understand this Arctic, Jet Stream, Polar Vortex etc etc then watch this YouTube by Dr. Jennifer Francis

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Re: A hole in winters heart. Unprecedented!

Postby HBS Guy » 17 Mar 2018, 23:11

“In winter, the freezing Arctic air is normally ‘locked’ by strong circumpolar winds several tens of kilometers high in the atmosphere, known as the stratospheric polar vortex, so that the cold air is confined near the pole,” says Marlene Kretschmer from PIK, lead-author of the study to be published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. “We found that there’s a shift towards more-persistent weak states of the polar vortex. This allows frigid air to break out of the Arctic and threaten Russia and Europe with cold extremes. In fact this can explain most of the observed cooling of Eurasian winters since 1990.”

Warm Arctic, cold continents

Despite global warming, recent winters in the Northeastern US, Europe and especially Asia were anomalously cold – some regions like Western Siberia even show a downward temperature trend in winter. In stark contrast, the Arctic has been warming rapidly. Paradoxically, both phenomena are likely linked: When sea-ice North of Scandinavia and Russia melts, the uncovered ocean releases more warmth into the atmosphere and this can impact the atmosphere up to about 30 kilometers height in the stratosphere disturbing the polar vortex. Weak states of the high-altitude wind circling the Arctic then favors the occurrence of cold spells in the mid-latitudes. Previous work by Kretschmer and colleagues identified this causal pathway in observational data and it is further supported by several climate computer simulation studies.

“Our latest findings not only confirm the link between a weak polar vortex and severe winter weather, but also calculated how much of the observed cooling in regions like Russia and Scandinavia is linked to the weakening vortex. It turns out to be most,” says co-author Judah Cohen from Atmospheric and Environmental Research/Massachusetts Institute of Technology (US). “Several types of weather extremes are on the rise with climate change, and our study adds evidence that this can also include cold spells, which is an unpleasant surprise for these regions.” The effect is stronger over Asia and Europe than over the US.


https://www.pik-potsdam.de/news/press-releases/winter-cold-extremes-linked-to-high-altitude-polar-vortex-weakening

Deniers concentrate on the cold in their area. Local ≠ global. When one part of the globe cools and another warms (actually happens in the opposite order) then there is no cooling.
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