2017 is second hottest year

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2017 is second hottest year

Postby HBS Guy » 19 Jan 2018, 10:34

That was obvious from the graph of global mean temperatures. The offical announcement:

NASA News & Feature Releases
Long-Term Warming Trend Continued in 2017: NASA, NOAA
Posted Jan. 18, 2018

Earth's global surface temperatures in 2017 ranked as the second warmest since 1880, according to an analysis by NASA.

Continuing the planet's long-term warming trend, globally averaged temperatures in 2017 were 1.62 degrees Fahrenheit (0.90 degrees Celsius) warmer than the 1951 to 1980 mean, according to scientists at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York. That is second only to global temperatures in 2016.

In a separate, independent analysis, scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) concluded that 2017 was the third-warmest year in their record. The minor difference in rankings is due to the different methods used by the two agencies to analyze global temperatures, although over the long-term the agencies' records remain in strong agreement. Both analyses show that the five warmest years on record all have taken place since 2010.


https://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20180118/

The recovery from the 2016 El Nino was half the recovery from the 1998 El Nino.

The monthly global mean temperature graph can be here: https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/

Temperature map:
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/tmp/gistemp/NMAPS/tmp_GHCN_GISS_ERSSTv5_1200km_Anom12_2017_2017_1951_1980_100__180_90_0__2_/amaps.png

Look closely at that temperature map: the poles show the most warming. In the Northern Hemisphere the rapid warming at the poles has weakened the Jet Stream and made it wavy. This means lobes of Arctic air can cover areas adjacent to the poles and cause temporary local cold conditions. The Antarctic is warming less slowly and doesn’t have a Jet Stream like the Arctic. But warmer air and waters are reaching the Antarctic: the circumpolar current and wind are not protecting Antarctica anymore and super cold fronts, so called “weather bombs” move out from Antarctica.

2018 should cool a bit with a weak La Nina developing or maybe Enso will stay neutral. Then again, 2017 showed a lot less cooling than expected.

At some time tho there will be another El Nino and temperatures will increase sharply again. Longer term, the sun will become a bit more active and temperatures will get a permanent bump up.
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Re: 2017 is second hottest year

Postby HBS Guy » 25 Jan 2018, 20:08

Article pointing out we accept the daily/weekly weather forecasts but some don’t accept the longer term forecasts—not accept AGW forecasts. These forecasts tho are based on exactly the same physical laws as the short term forecasts:

http://www.smh.com.au/comment/dont-shoot-the-climate-change-messenger-20180123-h0mpzo.html
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Re: 2017 is second hottest year

Postby MilesAway » 31 Jan 2018, 13:12

HBS Guy wrote:Article pointing out we accept the daily/weekly weather forecasts but some don’t accept the longer term forecasts—not accept AGW forecasts. These forecasts tho are based on exactly the same physical laws as the short term forecasts:

http://www.smh.com.au/comment/dont-shoot-the-climate-change-messenger-20180123-h0mpzo.html

Large momentum systems!

Who wants to give up greed?

It’s like your average joe giving up his job for life ... some would... most wouldn’t: easily, that is!

That’s the conservative point of view!

We all love filling our guts at the end of the day!!

Will to live is not the primary driver, is what I’m trying to say....
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Re: 2017 is second hottest year

Postby HBS Guy » 31 Jan 2018, 13:27

Resistance to change seems stronger than the will to live, for some.
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Re: 2017 is second hottest year

Postby MilesAway » 31 Jan 2018, 13:45

HBS Guy wrote:Resistance to change seems stronger than the will to live, for some.

That’s because will to power is the primary driver!

The organism just wishes to discharge its energy ,..
or something like that!

Will to live is just a frequently occurring indirect consequence of will to power.

Yadda yadda yadda...

Look at those African gangs: if they haven’t got jobs then they get bored and need to stretch their limbs and discharge their energies somehow... that’s why occupations exist!

Mass Immigration has definite limits!! Of course, it’s the same with the locals... you don’t want too high a youth unemployment or they will just get into the black market young and become a never ending burden on society!

Etc... :beer
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Re: 2017 is second hottest year

Postby HBS Guy » 31 Jan 2018, 18:09

It was kind of pathetic the way Dubyne skipped this important event, the hottest non–El Nino year, in water and on the surface. Bad news for corals. Not much good news for anyone.

The Arctic air that hit the US East coast got full star billing, of course. Next NH winter another lobe of Arctic air will hit somewhere else and the sheeple there will get blown away, never realising these things happen but the ice age is proving elusive. Year after that and no ice age tho the sun is at a sun spot minimum and they might wake up. Feel sorry for those silly enough to donate money to the charlatan.

Having such a hot year, just barely below 2016, that is not an El Nino year, amazing. How much heat the oceans must have. Thankfully, with a weak La Nina developing the oceans might be able to give up some of that heat.

Until last year there has not been a year after an El Nino year that did not show a big drop in temperature. 2017 was barely cooler than 2016. There was a drop after the 1998 heat. This allowed morons to pretend AGW had halted. Nah, huge heat, huge correction was all. Weather record is really, really noisy so looking at a few years in isolation is useless.

Be interesting how the next few years will play out. Will we get a few ENSO neutral to La Nina years? Or another series of big El Nino?

The sun going into its 11 year sunspot minimum next year will not affect weather. The solar output is pretty constant. It has been a tad low since the 1980s, that will likely switch to a tad high in the next couple of decades, bumping up the temperature curve.
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Re: 2017 is second hottest year

Postby HBS Guy » 12 Feb 2018, 21:13

A review of the 2017 polar year:

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/27122017/arctic-antarctic-sea-ice-sheets-2017-year-review-glaciers-disappearing-polar-records

Polar Ice Is Disappearing, Setting Off Climate Alarms
The short-term consequences of Arctic (and Antarctic) warming may already be felt in other latitudes. The long-term threat to coastlines is becoming even more dire. . . .this year's climate change signal was amplified at the Earth's poles.

There, decades-old predictions of intense warming have been coming true. The ice-covered poles, both north and south, continue to change at a breathtaking pace, with profound long-term consequences, according to the scientists who study them closely.


What consequences?

• The area covered by sea ice in the Arctic hit record lows through the winter of 2017. In March, when the sea ice hit its largest extent of the year, it was lower than it ever had been in the nearly 40-year satellite record. The spring melt began a month earlier than normal, and though the pace of decline slowed some over the summer, the Bering and Chukchi Seas along Alaska's coast remained ice-free longer into the fall than ever before.

• In November, NASA reported that two to four times as many coastal glaciers around Greenland are at risk of accelerated melting than previously thought. Greenland is losing an average of 260 billion tons of ice each year. In mid-September, a surge of warm air caused a spike in surface melting in southern Greenland—one of the largest spikes to occur in September since 1978.

• In Antarctica, the ice also recorded new lows. The annual low-point in ice coverage, which happened in early March, was the lowest on record. A few months later, in July, a trillion-ton section of Antarctica's Larsen C ice shelf broke off.

• "There's no evidence that anything is recovering here," said Mark Serreze, the director of the NSIDC. "What we've seen historically is a downward trend in ice extent in all months. Superimposed on that are the ups and downs of natural variability. We're going to continue to head downward."


More:
The consequences are profound.

The modern weather system has been defined by cold poles and warmer mid-latitudes. Along the boundary of the regions, where the cold air meets the warm, you'll find bands of strong wind, known as the jet stream.

The jet stream typically behaves in expected or at least understood ways, but every now and then something wacky happens. It dips, it wobbles, and suddenly the northeast finds itself in the chilly embrace of a polar vortex; or California finds itself in yet another drought; or Seattle is doused in days of rain.

"It's basically extreme weather when you get that loopy jetstream," said Meier.


Or Europe gets hit as it did Jan last year.

A growing body of science—some of which was recently published—is finding that as there are more years with historically low sea ice levels, there is an associated uptick in wobbly jet streams.


The less ice the more wobbly the Jet Stream
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Re: 2017 is second hottest year

Postby MilesAway » 13 Feb 2018, 15:13

Yeh, but it's not bone shattering news.

Just overwhelm the senses with contrarian views and you get a benign reaction from the mushroom voter!

..or is it changing and the bone shattering news is just being bled to cushion the blow of actual industrial-plant change?

Who knows?.... all real ozis know is we got copper I-net to please our masters in the new paradigm!

Go aussie :clap :grn :grn :grn :grn :grn :grn :grn :grn :grn :grn :grn :grn Hey, I know: let's sell more coal and iron ore forever :rain
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