The downward trend in demand and price for coal

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The downward trend in demand and price for coal

Postby HBS Guy » 19 Dec 2017, 09:55

Worldwide coal demand has suffered its biggest-ever fall as the global revolution under way in energy eats into the market.

Unfortunately, can’t access the link. Might have to —ugh!—buy a national shit sheet.

But renewable energy is now cheaper than coal fired energy and this will only accelerate as, e.g. more wide–ocean wind farms are built: wind is stronger and more constant on the ocean than on the sea. SA needs to stop faffing about and ask for tenders for windfarms to be installed in the Great Australian Bight and on Backstairs Passage.
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Re: The downward trend in demand and price for coal

Postby HBS Guy » 20 Dec 2017, 07:45

Coal use inexorably declining:

Global demand for coal slumped 1.9 per cent in 2016, a record drop in demand that is not expected to change until 2022.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) Coal 2017 report said 5.36 billion tonnes of coal was used last year, the second year in row consumption dropped.

That is a combined total of 4.2 per cent over 2015 and 2016, which according the IEA is larger then the last two-year slump in the early 1990s.

The agency forecasts that by 2022 global coal demand will be 5.53 billion tonnes, which means total demand will have stagnated for more than a decade.

Coal is Australia's second largest export earner after iron ore and has weathered a difficult few years before an unexpected and sustained spot-price rise over the last 18 months.

The IEA director for energy markets Keisuke Sadamori said global energy systems were rapidly evolving and biting into coal's traditional markets.

"There is much more diversity in the fuel mix; fracked natural gas, especially cheaper fracked gas in the United States.

"And costs are reducing for new technologies in both energy efficiency and renewable energy.

"Despite that, demand will remain essentially the same for the next five years.

"The share of coal in the global energy mix is forecast to decline from 27 per cent last year to 26 per cent in 2022.

"We expect coal-fired generation to increase by 1.2 per cent a year until 2022 although its share of the power mix will fall to just below 36 per cent by then."


http://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2017-12-19/iea-coal-2017-report-shows-demand-drop-and-new-buyers-in-asia/9271564

Eventually renewable energy will be so much cheaper than coal its use will decline precipitously. Rootop solar + battery has already sounded the death knell of coal fired electricity generation. Windfarms on the oceans will drop demand for coal precipitously. In the face of cost differential there is no way coal is going to resume its dominance.

Developments like this give me hope catastrophic AGW can be averted. Economics will win out but it better do so a lot quicker!
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Re: The downward trend in demand and price for coal

Postby HBS Guy » 09 Jul 2019, 14:25

More:

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Coal/The-Decline-Of-The-Coal-Industry-Is-Long-Term-And-Irreversible.html#

China was the lifeline for coal, but it stopped/slowed its coal fired power station building program. Then it as India—and the Adani mine came to mind. But India is producing more coal and is pretty much self sufficient in coal. HM coal will Adani move from Galilee Basin to India?

Interesting. Hopeful!
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Re: The downward trend in demand and price for coal

Postby Bongalong » 09 Jul 2019, 17:41

HBS Guy wrote:More:

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Coal/The-Decline-Of-The-Coal-Industry-Is-Long-Term-And-Irreversible.html#

China was the lifeline for coal, but it stopped/slowed its coal fired power station building program. Then it as India—and the Adani mine came to mind. But India is producing more coal and is pretty much self sufficient in coal. HM coal will Adani move from Galilee Basin to India?

Interesting. Hopeful!

China and India have access problems to mining their own well known resources of coal: but that can potentially(!??!?) change with time?!!!?
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Re: The downward trend in demand and price for coal

Postby HBS Guy » 09 Jul 2019, 18:46

India seems to have fixed its coal problem—and has a huge RE program as well.
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Re: The downward trend in demand and price for coal

Postby DonDeeHippy » 10 Jul 2019, 06:13

Yup just look at the old USA, Trump promised and was one of his major platform's on keeping and have more coal related jobs… So he is motivated to make this happen... Unfortunately every month another coal mine is closing and their owners are going broke, they can't even sell them.... Coal is a dinosaur both literally and figuratively...
Meanwhile in Australia our government have just given a foreign company lots of our money to start a new coal mine, even though we already have 1000's... good stewardship.... :purple :grn
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Re: The downward trend in demand and price for coal

Postby HBS Guy » 10 Jul 2019, 10:09

And it is lousy coal.

What stumped me and Lefty was: why doesn’t Adani just buy a coal mine? They are going cheap! If Adani and one or two others (Clive, Gina) really get going coal mines in NSW, better coal, will close. So net jobs in coal mining will likely go backwards because the new mines will be highly automated, very small number of jobs.
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Re: The downward trend in demand and price for coal

Postby Bongalong » 10 Jul 2019, 10:58

HBS Guy wrote:India seems to have fixed its coal problem—and has a huge RE program as well.

Yes, probably best they just skip the coal problem! :bgrin
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Re: The downward trend in demand and price for coal

Postby HBS Guy » 10 Jul 2019, 11:36

Yeah but no but, both have huge segments of their populations living in poor conditions. As long as they they reduce the intensity of their emissions over time until all the populations have electricity they are doing well and both India and China seem to be doing that.
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Re: The downward trend in demand and price for coal

Postby Bongalong » 10 Jul 2019, 12:42

HBS Guy wrote:Yeah but no but, both have huge segments of their populations living in poor conditions. As long as they they reduce the intensity of their emissions over time until all the populations have electricity they are doing well and both India and China seem to be doing that.

Yeh, I didn't mean to be impunitive. Who knows what it takes to govern such large amounts of people? :rain
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Re: The downward trend in demand and price for coal

Postby HBS Guy » 10 Jul 2019, 14:53

A big stick?
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Re: The downward trend in demand and price for coal

Postby Bongalong » 10 Jul 2019, 19:49

HBS Guy wrote:A big stick?

I dunno :rain :PC :PC :PC :PC :scare
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Re: The downward trend in demand and price for coal

Postby DonDeeHippy » 14 Jul 2019, 08:47

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/07/12/ke ... red-plant/

Kenyan Court Puts Kibosh On Country’s First Coal-Fired Plant

70% of Africans do not have access to a conventional electrical grid, which is why distributed renewable energy from solar panels and wind turbines is the perfect way to connect them to the modern world. But that hasn’t stopped traditional energy companies from trying to drag Africa into the 21st century with 19th century technology if there’s a buck to be made.
China is moving aggressively to slash carbon emissions at home, but it is only too happy to export them to other nations. It is offering to build coal-fired generating plants throughout southeast Asia, India, Pakistan, and Africa just as long as they are built by Chinese companies
A court in Kenya has recently nixed a plan to build that country’s first coal facility — a 981 MW station backed by a Chinese-led consortium — after environmental activists sued Amu Power and the Kenyan National Environment Management Authority claiming they failed to carry out a rigorous environmental assessment and to inform local people of potential impacts, according to a report by The Guardian. They argued that the plant would have adverse effects on local fishermen and farmland. The court agreed.
The activists say the plant could trigger breathing problems for locals and acid rain, as well as increase Kenya’s total greenhouse gas emissions by 700%. Building a coal-fired generating station is contrary to Kenya’s commitment to fight the climate emergency. That commitment includes generating two-thirds of its electricity from renewable sources and reducing its carbon footprint by a third before 2030.
The US ambassador to Kenya, Kyle McCarter, has made an ass of himself by arguing coal is environmentally sound, that the plant would boost the country’s economy, and that an analysis of the project by a US think tank that criticized the coal generating station was the the work of “highly paid protesters.”
Mithika Mwenda, the executive director of Pan African Climate Justice Alliance, one of many groups opposing the initiative, called McCarter’s comments “absurd.” She asked, “What interest does the US have in the coal-fired project? How will the economy grow if the Kenyan taxpayer is going to be subjected to hugely unsustainable debts, even before we can start producing power?” Even the Chinese ambassador to Kenya told opponents of the plant he supported the will of the Kenyan people on whether or not they want a coal-fired station.

Good for Kenya , notice the Chinese ambassador didn't argue (probable figuring out how to sell them mass amounts of solar panels) just the USA ambassador...
One less coal power station and the list just keeps growing :purple
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