More evidence for AGW: 13 US agencies

For scientific papers on AGW, record happenings in the Arctic and the Greenland, Himalayan and Antarctic icesheets. Also weatherstorms and higher than average rainfalls and other extreme weather events.

More evidence for AGW: 13 US agencies

Postby HBS Guy » 09 Nov 2017, 20:45

Yes, even in Trumpy’s term!

A comprehensive review by 13 US federal agencies concludes that evidence of global warming is stronger than ever and that more than 90% of it has been caused by humans.

The conclusion contradicts a favorite talking point of senior members of the Trump administration.

A 477-page report released on Friday said it was “extremely likely” – meaning with 95 to 100% certainty – that global warming is manmade, mostly from carbon dioxide through the burning of coal, oil and natural gas.


We can ignore the Trump cronies at the head of the various agencies: fossil fuel interests control them. So no ice age, well, d’uh, obvious!

Despite fears by some scientists and environmental advocates, David Fahey of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and several authors said there was no political interference or censoring. It is the most comprehensive summary of climate science since 2013, showing a warming, worsening world.

“A lot of what we’ve been learning over the last four year suggests the possibility that things may have been more serious than we think,” said Robert Kopp of Rutgers University, one of the dozens of scientists inside and outside the government who wrote the studies.

Since 1900, the report says Earth has warmed by 1C and seas have risen by 8in. Heatwaves, downpours and wildfires have become more frequent.


On OzPol I searched a heap of northern hemisphere countries, all suffering from heatwaves.

Wildfires: bushfires here, wildfires elsewhere. AGW dries vegetation earlier and the extra heat gives more impetus to whatever fires start. By putting out all fires we have allowed fuel loads to increase, now fuel reduction burns can only take place in a very narrow window. Chile, the US, Portugal and Spain etc have suffered huge wildfires in their respective summers, this will only get worse.

Some time a storm will hit a coast when there is a springtide on top of the higher sea level that will cause a huge storm that travels an unprecedented distance inland. THEN maybe something real will be done to reduce emissions and remove CO2 from the atmosphere. I predict such a storm will hit the east coast of the US (and Bangladesh but the US flood will be the one to cause a change in tackling AGW. Several major cities on the US east coast are vulnerable to flooding, e.g. Boston.

Scientists calculated that human contribution to warming since 1950 is between 92% and 123%. It’s more than 100% on one end, because some natural forces such as volcanoes and orbital cycle are working to cool Earth, but are being overwhelmed by the effects of greenhouse gases, said study co-author Katharine Hayhoe of Texas Tech.

“This period is now the warmest in the history of modern civilization,” she said.
For the first time, scientists highlighted a dozen “tipping points” of potential dangers that could happen from warming, things that Hayhoe said “keep me up at night”.

They include the slowing down of the giant Atlantic Ocean circulation system that could dramatically warp weather worldwide, much stronger El Niños, major decreases in ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica, which would spike sea level rise, and massive release of methane and carbon dioxide from thawing permafrost that could turbo-charge warming.

Researchers did not provide an estimate of how likely it was that tipping points would occur, but “there is certainly some chance of some of these things happening,” Fahey said.


https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/nov/03/climate-change-report-us-government-contradicts-trump

Nope, when will a non–linear event happen to tip the retreat of the 4 main ice sheet? Lap of the gods stuff. Will one happen, probably. I think the sun is in a quiescent state, will move to a more active state between 20 and 30 years from now. That could do it. A freak storm that sweeps a lot of the Arctic ice into the Pacific combined with a freak warm spell in the Arctic that melts a lot of the ice there (easy enough, more and more ice is one year ice) and the consequent albedo change could cause a lot of heating in the Arctic/Greenland that then causes warmer summer in the US. Freakishly huge wildfires in several countries causing a surge of CO2 into the atmosphere (and the blackened ground would absorb more heat etc. Not taking bets tho, this is not extrapolating a trend!
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Re: More evidence for AGW: 13 US agencies

Postby HBS Guy » 11 Nov 2017, 05:56

More coverage of the report:

Required by law under the Global Change Research Act of 1990, the CSSR report consists of findings, language, and cautions that might just as well have come from organizations such as the National Academy of Sciences and, at the global level, from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. That the report instead came from a Trump administration vocally dismissive of much of its scientific findings seemed for many its most significant element.

Some examples:

The period from 1901 through 2016, with an increase of about 1.8 degrees F (1 degree C), “is now the warmest in the history of modern civilization.”
“It is extremely likely that human activities, especially emissions of greenhouse gases, are the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century. From the warming over the last century, there is no convincing alternative explanation supported by the extent of the observational evidence.” (So much for EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt’s arguments to the contrary.)
“The magnitude of climate change beyond the next few decades will depend primarily on the amount of greenhouse gases (especially carbon dioxide) emitted globally.” Lacking “major reductions in emissions,” annual average global temperatures relative to preindustrial times “could reach 9 degrees F (5 degrees C) by 2100 … and atmospheric concentrations “not experienced in tens to hundreds of millions of years.”
While only adding incrementally to prevailing scientific understanding of climate change, the agencies in their new government report say its findings are buttressed by “new observations and new research” since publication of the third national assessment in May 2014. “Stronger evidence has emerged for continuing, rapid, human-caused warming of the global atmosphere and ocean,” it says.

The report points to “record-breaking, climate-related weather extremes, the warmest years on record for the globe, and continued decline in Arctic sea ice.” Those trends “are expected to continue in the future over climate (multidecadal) timescales.” The report adds that “significant advances have been made in the attribution of the human influence for individual climate and weather extreme events” since the 2014 assessment.

In announcing release of the report, representatives of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NOAA, and of the U.S. Geological Survey said the report had undergone extensive reviews by 13 USGCRP federal agencies and by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. They said multiple comments and suggestions from those interests had been considered prior to the White House’s Office of Science and Technology Policy approving public release of the report. While NOAA was the “administrative lead agency” in preparing the report, it did so over the past nine months in a period when it still did not have a Trump-nominated agency administrator.

Along with an executive summary, the full report consists of 15 individual chapters addressing issues such as warming of oceans, sea-level rise, and ocean acidification; the “significant possibility for unanticipated changes”; climate change mitigation; extreme storms; precipitation and temperature changes in the U.S.; and “Potential Changes: Compound Extremes and Tipping Elements.”

The full report and chapter-by-chapter sections can be downloaded, along with high-resolution artwork with captions and source and credit details, at Science2017.GlobalChange.gov.


https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2017/11/surprises-real-substance-new-federal-report/
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Re: More evidence for AGW: 13 US agencies

Postby HBS Guy » 11 Nov 2017, 06:02

Key Findings:

KF1;
The likely range of the human contribution to the global mean temperature increase over the period 1951–2010 is 1.1° to 1.4°F (0.6° to 0.8°C), and the central estimate of the observed warming of 1.2°F (0.65°C) lies within this range (high confidence). This translates to a likely human contribution of 93%–123% of the observed 1951–2010 change. It is extremely likely that more than half of the global mean temperature increase since 1951 was caused by human influence on climate (high confidence). The likely contributions of natural forcing and internal variability to global temperature change over that period are minor (high confidence).



93–123% how can that be? It means that the globe warmed due to AGW despite cooling trends (like the sun being relatively quiescent since the 1980s.


KF2;
The science of event attribution is rapidly advancing through improved understanding of the mechanisms that produce extreme events and the marked progress in development of methods that are used for event attribution (high confidence).
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Re: More evidence for AGW: 13 US agencies

Postby HBS Guy » 11 Nov 2017, 08:00

From the Executive Summary of the report:

Highlights of the Findings of the U.S. Global
Change Research Program Climate Science Special Report
Recommended Citation
The climate of the United States is strongly connected to the changing global climate. The statements below highlight past, current, and projected climate changes for the United States and the globe.

Global annually averaged surface air temperature has increased by about 1.8°F (1.0°C) over the last 115 years (1901–2016). This period is now the warmest in the history of modern civilization. The last few years have also seen record-breaking, climate-related weather extremes, and the last three years have been the warmest years on record for the globe. These trends are expected to continue over climate timescales.

This assessment concludes, based on extensive evidence, that it is extremely likely that human activities, especially emissions of greenhouse gases, are the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century. For the warming over the last century, there is no convincing alternative explanation supported by the extent of the observational evidence.

In addition to warming, many other aspects of global climate are changing, primarily in response to human activities. Thousands of studies conducted by researchers around the world have documented changes in surface, atmospheric, and oceanic temperatures; melting glaciers; diminishing snow cover; shrinking sea ice; rising sea levels; ocean acidification; and increasing atmospheric water vapor.

For example, global average sea level has risen by about 7–8 inches since 1900, with almost half (about 3 inches) of that rise occurring since 1993. Human-caused climate change has made a substantial contribution to this rise since 1900, contributing to a rate of rise that is greater than during any preceding century in at least 2,800 years. Global sea level rise has already affected the United States; the incidence of daily tidal flooding is accelerating in more than 25 Atlantic and Gulf Coast cities.

Global average sea levels are expected to continue to rise—by at least several inches in the next 15 years and by 1–4 feet by 2100. A rise of as much as 8 feet by 2100 cannot be ruled out. Sea level rise will be higher than the global average on the East and Gulf Coasts of the United States.

Changes in the characteristics of extreme events are particularly important for human safety, infrastructure, agriculture, water quality and quantity, and natural ecosystems. Heavy rainfall is increasing in intensity and frequency across the United States and globally and is expected to continue to increase. The largest observed changes in the United States have occurred in the Northeast.

Heatwaves have become more frequent in the United States since the 1960s, while extreme cold temperatures and cold waves are less frequent. Recent record-setting hot years are projected to become common in the near future for the United States, as annual average temperatures continue to rise. Annual average temperature over the contiguous United States has increased by 1.8°F (1.0°C) for the period 1901–2016; over the next few decades (2021–2050), annual average temperatures are expected to rise by about 2.5°F for the United States, relative to the recent past (average from 1976–2005), under all plausible future climate scenarios.

The incidence of large forest fires in the western United States and Alaska has increased since the early 1980s and is projected to further increase in those regions as the climate changes, with profound changes to regional ecosystems.

Annual trends toward earlier spring melt and reduced snowpack are already affecting water resources in the western United States and these trends are expected to continue. Under higher scenarios, and assuming no change to current water resources management, chronic, long-duration hydrological drought is increasingly possible before the end of this century.

The magnitude of climate change beyond the next few decades will depend primarily on the amount of greenhouse gases (especially carbon dioxide) emitted globally. Without major reductions in emissions, the increase in annual average global temperature relative to preindustrial times could reach 9°F (5°C) or more by the end of this century. With significant reductions in emissions, the increase in annual average global temperature could be limited to 3.6°F (2°C) or less.

The global atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration has now passed 400 parts per million (ppm), a level that last occurred about 3 million years ago, when both global average temperature and sea level were significantly higher than today. Continued growth in CO2 emissions over this century and beyond would lead to an atmospheric concentration not experienced in tens to hundreds of millions of years. There is broad consensus that the further and the faster the Earth system is pushed towards warming, the greater the risk of unanticipated changes and impacts, some of which are potentially large and irreversible.

The observed increase in carbon emissions over the past 15–20 years has been consistent with higher emissions pathways. In 2014 and 2015, emission growth rates slowed as economic growth became less carbon-intensive. Even if this slowing trend continues, however, it is not yet at a rate that would limit global average temperature change to well below 3.6°F (2°C) above preindustrial levels.


Last para a sober warning. Not enough to reduce emissions somewhat, need to remove CO2 from the atmosphere to keep temperatures below 2°C above preindustrial levels. Failure to do this: more and larger wildfires (a positive feedback) faster melting of land ice causing more rapid sea level rise, more extreme weather events, huge numbers of deaths among the elderly and very young.
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Re: More evidence for AGW: 13 US agencies

Postby HBS Guy » 11 Nov 2017, 08:22

Continuing the Executive Summary—Introduction:

(I have highlighted certain passages [and added comments.])

Highlights of the Findings of the U.S. Global
Change Research Program Climate Science Special Report

Recommended Citation
The climate of the United States is strongly connected to the changing global climate. The statements below highlight past, current, and projected climate changes for the United States and the globe.

Global annually averaged surface air temperature has increased by about 1.8°F (1.0°C) over the last 115 years (1901–2016). This period is now the warmest in the history of modern civilization. The last few years have also seen record-breaking, climate-related weather extremes, and the last three years have been the warmest years on record for the globe. These trends are expected to continue over climate timescales.

This assessment concludes, based on extensive evidence, that it is extremely likely that human activities, especially emissions of greenhouse gases, are the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century. For the warming over the last century, there is no convincing alternative explanation supported by the extent of the observational evidence.

In addition to warming, many other aspects of global climate are changing, primarily in response to human activities. Thousands of studies conducted by researchers around the world have documented changes in surface, atmospheric, and oceanic temperatures; melting glaciers; diminishing snow cover; shrinking sea ice; rising sea levels; ocean acidification; and increasing atmospheric water vapor.

For example, global average sea level has risen by about 7–8 inches since 1900, with almost half (about 3 inches) of that rise occurring since 1993. Human-caused climate change has made a substantial contribution to this rise since 1900, contributing to a rate of rise that is greater than during any preceding century in at least 2,800 years. Global sea level rise has already affected the United States; the incidence of daily tidal flooding is accelerating in more than 25 Atlantic and Gulf Coast cities.

Global average sea levels are expected to continue to rise—by at least several inches in the next 15 years and by 1–4 feet by 2100. A rise of as much as 8 feet by 2100 cannot be ruled out. Sea level rise will be higher than the global average on the East and Gulf Coasts of the United States. [This is understating the likely sea level rise.

Changes in the characteristics of extreme events are particularly important for human safety, infrastructure, agriculture, water quality and quantity, and natural ecosystems. Heavy rainfall is increasing in intensity and frequency across the United States and globally and is expected to continue to increase. The largest observed changes in the United States have occurred in the Northeast.[Yes, I do keep harping on warming seas and warming air causing more evaporation and the warmer air can hold more moister (7% more so far) leading to heavier precipitation as rain, hail or snow.]

Heatwaves have become more frequent in the United States since the 1960s, while extreme cold temperatures and cold waves are less frequent. Recent record-setting hot years are projected to become common in the near future for the United States, as annual average temperatures continue to rise. Annual average temperature over the contiguous United States has increased by 1.8°F (1.0°C) for the period 1901–2016; over the next few decades (2021–2050), annual average temperatures are expected to rise by about 2.5°F for the United States, relative to the recent past (average from 1976–2005), under all plausible future climate scenarios.

The incidence of large forest fires in the western United States and Alaska has increased since the early 1980s and is projected to further increase in those regions as the climate changes, with profound changes to regional ecosystems. [Another thing I do keep banging on about.]

Annual trends toward earlier spring melt and reduced snowpack are already affecting water resources in the western United States and these trends are expected to continue. Under higher scenarios, and assuming no change to current water resources management, chronic, long-duration hydrological drought is increasingly possible before the end of this century. [And a similar drying out is happening to the southern half of Australia]

The magnitude of climate change beyond the next few decades will depend primarily on the amount of greenhouse gases (especially carbon dioxide) emitted globally. Without major reductions in emissions, the increase in annual average global temperature relative to preindustrial times could reach 9°F (5°C) or more by the end of this century. With significant reductions in emissions, the increase in annual average global temperature could be limited to 3.6°F (2°C) or less.

The global atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration has now passed 400 parts per million (ppm), a level that last occurred about 3 million years ago, when both global average temperature and sea level were significantly higher than today. Continued growth in CO2 emissions over this century and beyond would lead to an atmospheric concentration not experienced in tens to hundreds of millions of years. There is broad consensus that the further and the faster the Earth system is pushed towards warming, the greater the risk of unanticipated changes and impacts, some of which are potentially large and irreversible.[like rapid melting and collapse of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets.]

The observed increase in carbon emissions over the past 15–20 years has been consistent with higher emissions pathways. In 2014 and 2015, emission growth rates slowed as economic growth became less carbon-intensive. Even if this slowing trend continues, however, it is not yet at a rate that would limit global average temperature change to well below 3.6°F (2°C) above preindustrial levels.


Introduction

New observations and new research have increased our understanding of past, current, and future climate change since the Third U.S. National Climate Assessment (NCA3) was published in May 2014. This Climate Science Special Report (CSSR) is designed to capture that new information and build on the existing body of science in order to summarize the current state of knowledge and provide the scientific foundation for the Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4).

Since NCA3, stronger evidence has emerged for continuing, rapid, human-caused warming of the global atmosphere and ocean. This report concludes that “it is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century. For the warming over the last century, there is no convincing alternative explanation supported by the extent of the observational evidence.”

The last few years have also seen record-breaking, climate-related weather extremes, the three warmest years on record for the globe, and continued decline in arctic sea ice. These trends are expected to continue in the future over climate (multidecadal) timescales. Significant advances have also been made in our understanding of extreme weather events and how they relate to increasing global temperatures and associated climate changes. Since 1980, the cost of extreme events for the United States has exceeded $1.1 trillion; therefore, better understanding of the frequency and severity of these events in the context of a changing climate is warranted.

[snip]

Global and U.S. Temperatures
Continue to Rise

Long-term temperature observations are among the most consistent and widespread evidence of a warming planet. Temperature (and, above all, its local averages and extremes) affects agricultural productivity, energy use, human health, water resources, infrastructure, natural ecosystems, and many other essential aspects of society and the natural environment. Recent data add to the weight of evidence for rapid global-scale warming, the dominance of human causes, and the expected continuation of increasing temperatures, including more record-setting extremes. (Ch. 1)


Changes in Observed and Projected Global Temperature

The global, long-term, and unambiguous warming trend has continued during recent years. Since the last National Climate Assessment was published, 2014 became the warmest year on record globally; 2015 surpassed 2014 by a wide margin; and 2016 surpassed 2015. Sixteen of the warmest years on record for the globe occurred in the last 17 years (1998 was the exception). (Ch. 1; Fig. ES.1)

Global annual average temperature (as calculated from instrumental records over both land and oceans) has increased by more than 1.2°F (0.65°C) for the period 1986–2016 relative to 1901–1960; the linear regression change over the entire period from 1901–2016 is 1.8°F (1.0°C) (very high confidence; Fig. ES.1). Longer-term climate records over past centuries and millennia indicate that average temperatures in recent decades over much of the world have been much higher, and have risen faster during this time period than at any time in the past 1,700 years or more, the time period for which the global distribution of surface temperatures can be reconstructed (high confidence). (Ch. 1)

Image
(left) Global annual average temperature has increased by more than 1.2°F (0.7°C) for the period 1986–2016 relative to 1901–1960. Red bars show temperatures that were above the 1901–1960 average, and blue bars indicate temperatures below the average. (right) Surface temperature change (in °F) for the period 1986–2016 relative to 1901–1960. Gray indicates missing data. From Figures 1.2. and 1.3 in Chapter 1.


https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/executive-summary/

Quite a lot to absorb there.

Fossil fuel interests and large agricultural services companies like Monsanto have too much say, too much access to policy makers at the large international gatherings to set climate policy.
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