Are we getting lots more hot weather lately?

For scientific papers on AGW, record happenings in the Arctic and the Greenland, Himalayan and Antarctic icesheets. Also weatherstorms and higher than average rainfalls and other extreme weather events.

Are we getting lots more hot weather lately?

Postby HBS Guy » 03 Nov 2017, 21:47

Very clear exposition of why AGW is real and happening:

It sometimes feels like we get a lot of “record-breaking” weather. Whether it’s a heatwave in Europe or the “Angry Summer” in Australia, the past few years have seen temperature records tumble.

This is the case both locally – Sydney had its hottest year on record in 2016 – and globally, with the world’s hottest year in 2016 beating the record set only the year before.

Some of 2016’s heat was due to the strong El Niño. But much of it can be linked to climate change too.

We’re seeing more heat records and fewer cold records. In Australia there have been 12 times as many hot records as cold ones in the first 15 years of this century.

If we were living in a world without climate change, we would expect temperature records to be broken less often as the observational record grows longer. After all, if you only have five previous observations for annual temperatures then a record year isn’t too surprising, but after 100 years a new record is more notable.

In contrast, what we are seeing in the real world is more hot temperature records over time, rather than less. So if you think we’re seeing more record-breaking weather than we should, you’re right.


It isn’t the sun, that is in a quiescent state and it is not axial tilt, Precession of the Equinoxes or similar. It is the greenhouse gases we put into the atmosphere, the extra 46% CO2 and the CFCs and now the methane and nitrous oxide. Homo sapiens, “wise man” yeah.

Why it’s happening

In my new open-access study published in the journal Earth’s Future, I outline a method for evaluating changes in the rate at which temperature records are being broken. I also use it to quantify the role of the human influence in this change.

To do it, I used climate models that represent the past and current climate with both human influences (greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions) and natural influences (solar and volcanic effects). I then compared these with models containing natural influences only.

Lots of hot records, fewer cold ones

Taking the example of global annual temperature records, we see far more record hot years in the models that include the human influences on the climate than in the ones without.

Crucially, only the models that include human influences can recreate the pattern of hot temperature records that were observed in reality over the past century or so.

Image of results
https://images.theconversation.com/files/191353/original/file-20171023-1722-14etovb.png

In contrast, when we look at cold records we don’t see the same difference. This is mainly because cold records were more likely to be broken early in the temperature series when there were fewer previous data. The earliest weather data comes from the late 19th century, when there was only a weak human effect on the climate relative to today. This means that there is less difference between my two groups of models.

In the models that include human influences on the climate, we see an increase in the number of global record hot years from the late 20th century onwards, whereas this increase isn’t seen in the model simulations without human influences. Major volcanic eruptions reduce the likelihood of record hot years globally in both groups of model simulations.

Projecting forward to 2100 under continued high greenhouse gas emissions, we see the chance of new global records continuing to rise, so that one in every two years, on average, would be a record-breaker.

https://images.theconversation.com/files/191352/original/file-20171023-1717-1adwmpj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip


https://theconversation.com/why-hot-weather-records-continue-to-tumble-worldwide-86158
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Re: Are we getting lots more hot weather lately?

Postby MilesAway » 13 Dec 2017, 15:48

Cool start to December but I don’t remember too many hot ones,... atleast until Christmas Day and even the you only had 40 possibly once or twice every 5 years or so.

It would be coolish then belt you at random I suppose...

Give me thunder and lighting... the heats alright but I really want the cracking thunderstorms!
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Re: Are we getting lots more hot weather lately?

Postby MilesAway » 13 Dec 2017, 15:51

HBS Guy wrote:Very clear exposition of why AGW is real and happening:

It sometimes feels like we get a lot of “record-breaking” weather. Whether it’s a heatwave in Europe or the “Angry Summer” in Australia, the past few years have seen temperature records tumble.

This is the case both locally – Sydney had its hottest year on record in 2016 – and globally, with the world’s hottest year in 2016 beating the record set only the year before.

Some of 2016’s heat was due to the strong El Niño. But much of it can be linked to climate change too.

We’re seeing more heat records and fewer cold records. In Australia there have been 12 times as many hot records as cold ones in the first 15 years of this century.

If we were living in a world without climate change, we would expect temperature records to be broken less often as the observational record grows longer. After all, if you only have five previous observations for annual temperatures then a record year isn’t too surprising, but after 100 years a new record is more notable.

In contrast, what we are seeing in the real world is more hot temperature records over time, rather than less. So if you think we’re seeing more record-breaking weather than we should, you’re right.


It isn’t the sun, that is in a quiescent state and it is not axial tilt, Precession of the Equinoxes or similar. It is the greenhouse gases we put into the atmosphere, the extra 46% CO2 and the CFCs and now the methane and nitrous oxide. Homo sapiens, “wise man” yeah.

Why it’s happening

In my new open-access study published in the journal Earth’s Future, I outline a method for evaluating changes in the rate at which temperature records are being broken. I also use it to quantify the role of the human influence in this change.

To do it, I used climate models that represent the past and current climate with both human influences (greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions) and natural influences (solar and volcanic effects). I then compared these with models containing natural influences only.

Lots of hot records, fewer cold ones

Taking the example of global annual temperature records, we see far more record hot years in the models that include the human influences on the climate than in the ones without.

Crucially, only the models that include human influences can recreate the pattern of hot temperature records that were observed in reality over the past century or so.

Image of results
https://images.theconversation.com/files/191353/original/file-20171023-1722-14etovb.png

In contrast, when we look at cold records we don’t see the same difference. This is mainly because cold records were more likely to be broken early in the temperature series when there were fewer previous data. The earliest weather data comes from the late 19th century, when there was only a weak human effect on the climate relative to today. This means that there is less difference between my two groups of models.

In the models that include human influences on the climate, we see an increase in the number of global record hot years from the late 20th century onwards, whereas this increase isn’t seen in the model simulations without human influences. Major volcanic eruptions reduce the likelihood of record hot years globally in both groups of model simulations.

Projecting forward to 2100 under continued high greenhouse gas emissions, we see the chance of new global records continuing to rise, so that one in every two years, on average, would be a record-breaker.

https://images.theconversation.com/files/191352/original/file-20171023-1717-1adwmpj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip


https://theconversation.com/why-hot-weather-records-continue-to-tumble-worldwide-86158



“..the extra 46% CO2 ..”

<<
Where did you get this figure from?
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Re: Are we getting lots more hot weather lately?

Postby HBS Guy » 13 Dec 2017, 16:14

1850—280ppm

2017—405ppm

(405-280)*100/280

Do the calculation.
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Re: Are we getting lots more hot weather lately?

Postby MilesAway » 18 Dec 2017, 13:22

HBS Guy wrote:1850—280ppm

2017—405ppm

(405-280)*100/280

Do the calculation.

Fair enough!

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Re: Are we getting lots more hot weather lately?

Postby HBS Guy » 20 Dec 2017, 18:06

Louka @CoolQuotz

Some chilling (bad pun) statistics here from this July article on #climatechange

* 1/2 of all carbon humanity released into the atmosphere occurred in past 3 decades; 85% since WW2

* 5 warmest summers in Europe since 1500 have all occurred since 2002http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/07/climate-change-earth-too-hot-for-humans.html …


http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/07/climate-change-earth-too-hot-for-humans.html

:oops Shouldn’t that be the COLDEST summers? No? Shit! So this ice age thing is 100% crap? Oh dear, please please please don’t tell Booby, it might destroy his fragile grip on sanity!
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Re: Are we getting lots more hot weather lately?

Postby HBS Guy » 20 Dec 2017, 20:11

Earth is getting hotter and hotter:

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/07/climate-change-earth-too-hot-for-humans-annotated.html

Sea level rise is but a small part of it.
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Re: Are we getting lots more hot weather lately?

Postby MilesAway » 21 Dec 2017, 12:40

HBS Guy wrote:Earth is getting hotter and hotter:

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/07/climate-change-earth-too-hot-for-humans-annotated.html

Sea level rise is but a small part of it.


to apply the best science we have today to the median and high-end “business-as-usual” warming projections produced by the U.N.’s “gold standard” Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

There are implications here, clearly!

In politics, and everything is politics, we can always argue that black is actually white,... given the bending of the ear approach which, of course, must’ve been consented to.

This is why we judge people on their mannerisms before we even talk to them.

If Sea level rise is not the problem then deniers have the right to protest... the marketplace is literally war! (All government intervened and above board of course!)

The world turns but only at the pace it can keep up with!
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Re: Are we getting lots more hot weather lately?

Postby HBS Guy » 21 Dec 2017, 13:43

Sea level rise IS a problem but AGW brings bigger problems.
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Re: Are we getting lots more hot weather lately?

Postby MilesAway » 21 Dec 2017, 13:50

HBS Guy wrote:Sea level rise IS a problem but AGW brings bigger problems.

It’s got to be seen as a problem: sanity is not the rule in groups!

Al Gore was right to get onto this a long time ago because the 50 year delay into real action will be attributed to him actually raising the Alarm!

Trucks don’t turn on a dime y know....
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Re: Are we getting lots more hot weather lately?

Postby HBS Guy » 21 Dec 2017, 13:54

Yeah, so why the hell did we have to get two idiots elected as leaders, abbott–turdfull here and trumpy in the US? We should be moving NOW but the two dickheads can only talk coal!
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Re: Are we getting lots more hot weather lately?

Postby MilesAway » 27 Dec 2017, 19:44

HBS Guy wrote:Yeah, so why the hell did we have to get two idiots elected as leaders, abbott–turdfull here and trumpy in the US? We should be moving NOW but the two dickheads can only talk coal!

Because, like I said, sanity is not the rule in groups!

Free markets are an ideal that depend on free flow of information.... this cannot happen especially if the supply side of the equation purposefully suppresses the information flow to the demand side via its use of pooled resources!

All markets are intervened by necessity otherwise the born to rule would kill the host!

:beer

Que?
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Re: Are we getting lots more hot weather lately?

Postby MilesAway » 27 Dec 2017, 19:44

Or do I mean, capisce?
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Re: Are we getting lots more hot weather lately?

Postby HBS Guy » 27 Dec 2017, 19:49

You mean capisce, que is a question.
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Re: Are we getting lots more hot weather lately?

Postby MilesAway » 27 Dec 2017, 21:14

HBS Guy wrote:You mean capisce, que is a question.

Yes, but capisce is said in a questioning way!

Is it not?

I think you can ask que in a questioning tone and imply that the question is for the other person to answer!

:bike :bike :bike

(basically, I’m not sure :beer )
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Re: Are we getting lots more hot weather lately?

Postby MilesAway » 27 Dec 2017, 21:19

From wiktionary,

Without a question mark at the end, it is sometimes used to mean, “I understand”, as an American colloquialism. In Italian, that would actually mean “he/she/it understands” or a formal “you understand”. To mean “I understand”, one would actually say capisco.
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Re: Are we getting lots more hot weather lately?

Postby HBS Guy » 28 Dec 2017, 14:38

Hah! I was looking for chill hours for raspberries (thinking the coast might mitigate the cold too much) and what did I find?

http://www.dpac.tas.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0020/216317/Fruit_Growers_-_Adaptation_Case_Study.pdf

Also found this, a Tas Govt paper:
Average temperatures have risen in the decades since the 1950s, at a rate similar to the rest of
Tasmania (up to 0.15 °C per decade). Daily minimum temperatures have risen slightly more than
daily maximum temperatures.


http://www.dpac.tas.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0014/161006/Clarence.pdf

Tassie fruit growers looking ahead to cope with AGW and the changing temperatures and rainfalls. Already some cherry growers are building costa houses—a frame with retractable roof and walls that can be drawn across if rain or hail might damage the ripening cherries.

So much for belief in an ice age, mostly by the uneducated like Booby.
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Re: Are we getting lots more hot weather lately?

Postby MilesAway » 28 Dec 2017, 15:20

HBS Guy wrote:Hah! I was looking for chill hours for raspberries (thinking the coast might mitigate the cold too much) and what did I find?

http://www.dpac.tas.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0020/216317/Fruit_Growers_-_Adaptation_Case_Study.pdf

Also found this, a Tas Govt paper:
Average temperatures have risen in the decades since the 1950s, at a rate similar to the rest of
Tasmania (up to 0.15 °C per decade). Daily minimum temperatures have risen slightly more than
daily maximum temperatures.


http://www.dpac.tas.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0014/161006/Clarence.pdf

Tassie fruit growers looking ahead to cope with AGW and the changing temperatures and rainfalls. Already some cherry growers are building costa houses—a frame with retractable roof and walls that can be drawn across if rain or hail might damage the ripening cherries.

So much for belief in an ice age, mostly by the uneducated like Booby.

Have apples been effected?
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Re: Are we getting lots more hot weather lately?

Postby HBS Guy » 28 Dec 2017, 15:34

Less high chill varieties I suppose.
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