Would we have had three. . .

For scientific papers on AGW, record happenings in the Arctic and the Greenland, Himalayan and Antarctic icesheets. Also weatherstorms and higher than average rainfalls and other extreme weather events.

Would we have had three. . .

Postby HBS Guy » 05 Oct 2017, 11:46

. . .consecutive years of record heat 2014-2015-2016 without AGW? Computer says “No.”

Abstract

We use a previously developed semiempirical approach to assess the likelihood of the sequence of consecutive record-breaking temperatures in 2014–2016. This approach combines information from historical temperature data and state-of-the-art historical climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We find that this sequence of record-breaking temperatures had a negligible (<0.03%) likelihood of occurrence in the absence of anthropogenic warming. It was still a rare but not implausible event (roughly 1–3% likelihood) taking anthropogenic warming into effect. The probability that three consecutive records would have been observed at some point since 2000 is estimated as ~30–50% given anthropogenic warming and <0.7% in its absence. The likelihood of observing the specific level of record warmth recorded during 2016 is no more than ~one-in-a-million neglecting anthropogenic warming, but as high as 27%, i.e., a nearly one-in-three chance of occurrence taking anthropogenic warming into account.


http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL074056/full

Lees would scoff “models” but the best models predict climate pretty reliably and using them on a No AGW/AGW present scenarios is well established by now and has decided some hypothesis in climate science.
Abbott & Co are going to cause the mother and father of all recessions—be prepared!
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Re: Would we have had three. . .

Postby HBS Guy » 05 Oct 2017, 11:56

THIS is what I was searching for, specific to Australia:

Abstract

Record-breaking temperatures can detrimentally impact ecosystems, infrastructure, and human health. Previous studies show that climate change has influenced some observed extremes, which are expected to become more frequent under enhanced future warming. Understanding the magnitude, as a well as frequency, of such future extremes is critical for limiting detrimental impacts. We focus on temperature changes in Australian regions, including over a major coral reef-building area, and assess the potential magnitude of future extreme temperatures under Paris Agreement global warming targets (1.5°C and 2°C). Under these limits to global mean warming, we determine a set of projected high-magnitude unprecedented Australian temperature extremes. These include extremes unexpected based on observational temperatures, including current record-breaking events. For example, while the difference in global-average warming during the hottest Australian summer and the 2°C Paris target is 1.1°C, extremes of 2.4°C above the observed summer record are simulated. This example represents a more than doubling of the magnitude of extremes, compared with global mean change, and such temperatures are unexpected based on the observed record alone. Projected extremes do not necessarily scale linearly with mean global warming and this effect demonstrates the significant potential benefits of limiting warming to 1.5°C, compared to 2°C or warmer.


From the “Plain English Summary:”

This study finds that the magnitude of future temperature extremes for Australia does not necessarily increase at the same rate of global warming. The severity of possible future temperature extremes simulated by climate models in this study poses serious challenges for preparedness for future climatic change in Australia. For example, daily temperature extremes of 3.8{degree sign}C above existing records are simulated for Australian states, even under the ambitious Paris efforts to curb global warming.


So, ≥50°C summer days are possible even if looking at charts of temperatures does not suggest temperatures that high any time soon. Not every trend proceeds linearly, predictable: curves often get steeper (exponential etc.)

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL074612/full

Bloody glad I will be in Tassie in a year or two.

Judith Ireland wrote a colemn on this in the smh:
According to a study led by the Australian National University, Sydney and Melbourne should prepare for 50-degree summer days in the coming decades. Researcher Sophie Lewis said these 50-degree scorchers could occur even under the Paris Agreement's global warming limit of 2 degrees.

The study, published in Geophysical Research Letters, adds "such unprecedented temperatures would present onerous challenges to human and natural systems".


http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/if-you-cant-stand-the-heat-get-out-of-the-climate-change-debate-20171003-gytukv.html

worth reading.
Abbott & Co are going to cause the mother and father of all recessions—be prepared!
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