Sydney and Melbourne could face 50C days 'within decades'

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Sydney and Melbourne could face 50C days 'within decades'

Postby Squire » 04 Oct 2017, 17:41

Denizen Bobby will be able to make icebergs out of his sweat.

That's ferocious heat that will certainly kill people.

That's just air temperature. Surfaces of roads and buildings will be far hotter.

Global warming appears to have momentum and inertia which will ensure temperature overshoot whether or not emission targets are reached.

Closet poms are done for. Only those genetically adapted to warmer climates will survive.

Sydney and Melbourne could face 50C days 'within decades'

Summers in Sydney and Melbourne will get hotter, researchers say
Australia's two biggest cities could swelter through 50C days within a few decades, a study has found.
Sydney and Melbourne are likely to endure such summers even if global warming is contained to the Paris accord limit of a 2C rise above pre-industrial levels, scientists said.
Limiting warming to below that would make 50C days less likely, they said.

Sydney reached a record 45.8C in 2013 while Melbourne hit 46.4C in 2009, the nation's Bureau of Meteorology said.
The study examined only forecasts for Victoria and New South Wales, but researchers said the rest of Australia could also expect rises.
"One of the hottest years on record globally - in 2015 - could be an average year by 2025," said lead researcher Dr Sophie Lewis from the Australian National University.

The research, also involving the University of Melbourne and published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, drew on observational data and climate modelling to predict future temperatures.
Dr Lewis said the cities could experience 50C days between 2040 and 2050, a forecast based on global temperatures being at 2C above pre-industrial times.
Australia's most recent summer broke 205 weather records while its winter was the warmest on record, according to the nation's independent Climate Council.
Last month, Australians were warned to prepare for a dangerous bushfire season in 2017-18.
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Re: Sydney and Melbourne could face 50C days 'within decades

Postby HBS Guy » 04 Oct 2017, 17:51

This assumes, as Prof Eric Rignot stated (a video from him somewhere here) “no non–linearities.”

One non–linearity (i.e. general acceleration or a sustained bump up) will be the sun moving from its more quiet to its more active state. More active > more radiation > more radiation reaching here > increase in warming.

The Arctic could also be the source of a non–lineaity: strong winds blowing another lot of ice into the Pacific where it melts or the PDO and the ADO both go into a warm state which will melt a LOT of Arctic ice, exposing lots of dark ocean to absorb the sunlight and so warm up. This affects weather well outside the Arctic (consider El Nino/La Nina.)
Abbott & Co are going to cause the mother and father of all recessions—be prepared!
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