What if natural forcings add to AGW?

For scientific papers on AGW, record happenings in the Arctic and the Greenland, Himalayan and Antarctic icesheets. Also weatherstorms and higher than average rainfalls and other extreme weather events.

What if natural forcings add to AGW?

Postby HBS Guy » 04 Oct 2017, 06:14

Silly deniers point to the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and say it was warmer then than now.

Nope, there was a MWP but it did not get as warm as now as best as we know.

But there was a MWP due to non–anthropogenic forcings, say it caused 0.5°C increase in temperatures: what if these forcings returned and added to AGW?

First let us consider what these forcings might be:

1. A hotter sun leading to a higher Total Solar Irradiance reaching the upper atmosphere

2. A significant decrease in volcanism meaning fewer volatiles in the upper atmosphere reflecting the sunlight back out to space

3. A sudden big drop in snow and ice cover—albedo change—meaning more sunlight is absorbed by dark rock or ocean rather than being reflected back to space by white ice or snow

—note forcings 1 & 2 can increase forcing 3, but leave that aside for now

4. Other forcings

Certainly forcing 1 is about due, the sun moved into its quiescent state in the 1980s, 40 years ago nearly, maybe in 20–25 years time the quiescent state will give way to its active state. The exact timing is not important here.

So, say it is 2030 and the sun becomes more active, independent of this vulcanism drops to a low, forcing three gets boosted—and the 1.3°C anthropogenic warming by then gets boosted by, say, another .5°C—what then? Hate to think what hurricanes will be doing then with that relatively (10–20 years only) quick boost to warmth and moisture.

Well, things will get hotter (d’uh!) so more extreme weather, another 3–4% more moisture can be held by the warmer air.

Extreme temperatures will rise—lots more deaths among the very young and the very old, crop failures.

Wildfires will become more frequent, bigger and more deadly. Even now in the richest country on the planet multiyear wildfires are burning now (Georgia–Florida area.) This adds carbon to the atmosphere and

Polar ice melting, happening now with 9m of sea level rise locked in, will accelerate. The “third pole” aka the Himalayan icefield that waters 1/4 of humanity will disappear (happening now, it will of course accelerate with increased heat.) First nuclear war between India and China over the dwindling water source can be expected.

Sea level rise from thermal expansion and increase meltwater flow. Huge cost of moving coastal citys, infrastructure and agriculture inland, building sea defences etc. People will regret idiot Trumpy rescinding the executive order that mandated putting infrastructure where it won’t be hit by floods.

The overturning thermohaline circulation ocean currents will stop, reducing temperatures by some minor amount in NE America and W. Europe. (Think Gulf Stream but all the main currents like it will stop, disturbing weather patterns.

This from half a degree extra warming. We have 9 metres of sea level rise locked in right now, a bump up in the temperature graphs will increase that but mainly it will bring this forward.

We have maybe 20years before this happens to do something. My guess is: we won’t.
Abbott & Co are going to cause the mother and father of all recessions—be prepared!
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