Excellent blog on AGW and related matters

For scientific papers on AGW, record happenings in the Arctic and the Greenland, Himalayan and Antarctic icesheets. Also weatherstorms and higher than average rainfalls and other extreme weather events.

Excellent blog on AGW and related matters

Postby HBS Guy » 29 Sep 2017, 13:38

Abbott & Co are going to cause the mother and father of all recessions—be prepared!
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Re: Excellent blog on AGW and related matters

Postby HBS Guy » 29 Sep 2017, 13:44

The Earth really hasn’t backed off that much from the record heat of 2016. And since we’re experiencing what NOAA states is more and more likely to be back-to-back La Nina periods, the world should really sit up and take notice.

El Nino and La Nina Variability as Part of the Larger Warming Trend

As a measure of natural variability, La Ninas bring cooler conditions to a large portion of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean. Since the influence of this ocean on the larger climate system is so strong, La Ninas tend to generate periodic cooling in surface temperatures across the globe. El Nino, by contrast, generates periodic warming. The cycling between these two states can be imagined as a wave form.

https://robertscribbler.files.wordpress.com/2017/09/change-in-temperature-since-1880.png?



Interesting graph. Again, blows away the “pause” bullshit. Look at it, up to about 1980 the graph has a more or less straightline of a shallow slop which steepens after 1980. Shows how little time we have to avoid massive sea level and temperature rises, more and more extreme weather events, etc.

According to NASA, August of 2017 came in as the second hottest August in the 137 year climate record. Overall August temperatures were 1.09 C warmer than 1880s averages. A measure that came in 0.14 C cooler than the record hot August of 2016 and 0.05 C warmer than the third hottest August — 2014. This added heat to the Earth System continued a larger record trend that has been in place at least since 2014 in which temperatures near the Earth’s surface spiked to far higher than previous levels (see image above).

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DKHFwxfWsAAnVz-.jpg
2017 still on track to be 2nd warmest yr in the record (Prob. ~ 83%) (updated using August data).


Present NASA tracking shows that the first 9 months of climate year 2017 (Dec-Aug) were 1.14 C hotter than 1880s averages. By comparison, climate year of 2016 (Dec-Nov) hit 1.24 C above 1880s averages with January through December hitting 1.22 C above 1880s averages. The third warmest year on record, 2015, came in at around 1.09 C hotter than 1880s. Given this larger trend, NASA scientists presently provide an 83 percent probability that 2017 will come in as the second hottest year on record.

It appears that 2017 is likely to hit around 1.11 C above 1880s averages. This is a 0.11 C dip below the record hot year of 2016. And it’s a dip enabled by the formation of a La Nina during fall of 2016 and a likely back to back formation of La Nina during the same season of 2017. In contrast, the strong La Nina following the 1997-1998 El Nino produced a much greater relative global temperature drop of around 0.2 C. An approximate 0.1 C return from the very strong 2016 spike is not much of a variability-based fall back and could point toward a stronger relative warming and a possible near term challenge to the 2016 global record in a likely El Nino during 2018-2020.

Abbott & Co are going to cause the mother and father of all recessions—be prepared!
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Re: Excellent blog on AGW and related matters

Postby HBS Guy » 29 Sep 2017, 17:15

Along the same lines, rational wiki:

http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Main_Page
Abbott & Co are going to cause the mother and father of all recessions—be prepared!
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