Consequences of AGW

For scientific papers on AGW, record happenings in the Arctic and the Greenland, Himalayan and Antarctic icesheets. Also weatherstorms and higher than average rainfalls and other extreme weather events.

Re: Consequences of AGW

Postby HBS Guy » 01 May 2018, 20:48

ahahahahahahahahaha

I tweeted hints about the above on Twitter—hash tag #grandsolarminimum. “the ice age scam has only days to go!” bwahahahahaha

Fucking bastards bleeding the gullible of donations, purchases of “survival foods” and all that shit! I hope some fraudsters shit themselves reading what I tweeted!
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Re: Consequences of AGW

Postby pinkeye » 02 May 2018, 02:41

well good for you. whatever you did.

Umm tonight on the ABC24 News about the Thwaites Glacier, in Antarctica.
You seem largely focused on the nthn hemisphere. but it seems this Glacier is one of the largest on earth, and is currently in the process of breaking up. Large pieces have already melted, fallen , into the ocean. The scientists, from the UK mainly, estimate if the whole glacier broke up into the sea, the levels across the globe would rise by about 1 metre. Very quickly. MUCH MORE QUICKLY than predicted.

This RATE of CHANGE is accelerating, far beyond expectations.
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Re: Consequences of AGW

Postby HBS Guy » 02 May 2018, 06:57

I have posted here about the Pine Island, Thwaites and Totten glaciers. But most of the action has been in the north, the warm Arctic which is about to warm up again.

I did post about Pine Isl glacier calving off an ice berg even as winter was approaching.
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Re: Consequences of AGW

Postby HBS Guy » 02 May 2018, 07:40

Another consequence of AGW is bigger wildfires/bushfires, complicated by the fact the wildfire season has lengthened meaning the fuel reduction burns are more difficult to do safely.

Today, as with many recent days, Oklahoma is experiencing hot, dry, 9url=http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy1.html]critical fire hazard conditions.[/url] And over the past month, historically exceptional drought and hotter than normal weather have spurred a spate of very severe and seemingly unrelenting wildfires across the state.

Image
(The Rhea Fire burned nearly 300,000 acres in Oklahoma during mid-April. This large fire is now 100 percent contained. But blazes continue to break out. Image source: Climate.gov.)

. . .In total, about 350,000 acres have burned so far this year (an area half the size of Rhode Island)



https://robertscribbler.com/2018/05/01/worsening-prairie-fires-exceptional-central-heat-and-drought-spurs-more-oklahoma-blazes/

And summer hasn’t even started. We were fortunate last summer was mild, no idea what next summer will be like.
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Re: Consequences of AGW

Postby HBS Guy » 02 May 2018, 07:57

Ha! Here you go, Pinky, an article (well, comment to an article) about Thwaites:

“Unprecedented U.S.- British project launches to study the most dangerous glacier”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2018/04/30/unprecedented-u-s-british-project-launches-to-study-the-worlds-most-dangerous-glacier/?utm_term=.ac253100650d

The largest U.S.-British Antarctic mission in seven decades officially launched at an event in Cambridge on Monday, as the two countries pooled dollars and scientific resources for missions to West Antarctica’s Thwaites glacier — a Florida-size ice body that, scientists fear, could flood the world’s coastlines in our lifetimes.

“For global sea-level change in the next century, this Thwaites glacier is almost the entire story,” said David Holland, a geoscientist at New York University, who will pair with British Antarctic Survey researcher Keith Nicholls to lead one of the six scientific field missions.

Thwaites is a key part of the reason that recent computer modeling studies have predicted that the Antarctic could double the previously projected rate of sea-level rise during this century. But it is located in an extremely remote area, and the critical region that will determine how fast the glacier retreats — the “grounding line” where ocean, ice and bedrock meet at 2,600-foot depths — remains little studied.


https://robertscribbler.com/2018/04/30/major-arctic-warming-event-predicted-over-the-coming-week/#comment-142135

“Grounding lines” are where a glacier last makes contact with the ground, seaward of the grounding line the glacier floats on the seawater. Some glaciers, the Totten in particular, have grounding lines that have retreated kilometers inland.
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Re: Consequences of AGW

Postby pinkeye » 02 May 2018, 21:44

thanks I s'pose. Doesn't sound real hopeful . Apparently warmer seawater is flowing beneath the glacier, at a rapid rate. This is undermining the glacier, so to speak.

Getting up to and past the 'grounding lines'.?
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Re: Consequences of AGW

Postby HBS Guy » 02 May 2018, 23:53

Yeah, the grounding lines retreat.
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Re: Consequences of AGW

Postby pinkeye » 03 May 2018, 02:28

HBS Guy wrote:Yeah, the grounding lines retreat.


Head for higher ground.!!
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Re: Consequences of AGW

Postby HBS Guy » 03 May 2018, 09:10

Pretty much.

One metre of sea level rise by the end of the century is pretty much locked in but we could get more than that.

The Eemian period 125,000 years ago had temperatures a tad higher than now—and 9m higher sea levels.
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Re: Consequences of AGW

Postby pinkeye » 04 May 2018, 02:58

by the end of the century.? I think it'll be a whole lot sooner than that.!

I think much sooner. By 2025, things should be pretty clear.
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Re: Consequences of AGW

Postby HBS Guy » 04 May 2018, 03:43

Will see.

As you say, I think it will happen quicker than we thought a couple of years ago.

Lees made me laugh today. I told him seismology had shown there was water under the Totten “But can seismology show WARM water? Where does the warm water come from?”

Geez, Lees, the bottom of a fair bit of the Totten has melted, you think that may have been warm water done it? :roll :roll :roll Where does the warm water come from? From the Oceans that AGW made hotter you think? D’uh!
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Re: Consequences of AGW

Postby HBS Guy » 04 May 2018, 10:44

Another consequence of AGW is that weather will flip sharply, from drought to an inch of rain per hour. As the AMOC slows down Britain will have colder winters that flip sharply into hot summers. God, who’d be a farmer!

Image
(Bruce Haffner snapped this photo of an extreme heavy rainfall event over Phoenix, AZ during 2016. Climate change has been increasing the intensity of the most severe storms. So we see historic an unusually strong events more and more frequently.)


Hawaii copped it recently:
Whether you like the phrase or not, more rain-bombs — or extreme heavy rainfall events far outside the range of usual weather norms — keep falling. And most recently the all-time record for the most rain to fall within a 24 hour period was shattered on April 14-15 as nearly 50 inches inundated Kauai, Hawaii. In a separate instance half a world away, late April and early May has seen extreme drought giving way to extreme flooding over parts of the Middle East. Both increasingly extreme drought events and much heavier than usual precipitation events are signals of human-caused climate change. And, lately, these signals have been proliferating.

For the Kauai event, the Washington Post reports that 49.69 inches of rain accumulated at the Waipa rain gauge on Kauai in just one 24-hour period. Though Kauai is the rainiest place on Earth — receiving some 400 inches per year — this single day rainfall was far in excess of even that soggy norm. In total, it amounted to about one and a half months of precipitation for the world’s wettest location falling in just one day. . . .

However, with climate change, you can never discount the hard swing back to heavy rain despite prolonged drying as weather chaos ensues. Such was the situation during the recent week as an intense weather disturbance crossed the Mediterranean and entered the Middle East on April 26th and 27th. The colder air mass tapped high levels of moisture bleeding off the, again, much warmer than normal sea surfaces in the Med. It then dumped this moisture in the form of extreme precipitation over the Middle East.

In Israel, the resulting flash floods swept away ten teenagers as street flooding that was described as ‘epic’ ran through the country’s cities. Waters over-topped sidewalks and rushed into homes and businesses as the heavens unleashed. One to two inch per hour rainfall rates were reported. Meanwhile, in Syria, heavy hail pelted down. Jordan and Egypt were also inundated — with many streets described as impassable due to flood waters. The leading edge of cooler air kicked up a massive haboob — which spread its immense cloud of dust over Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. Over recent days, the stormy pattern continued. Heavy rains overtook parts of Yemen — forcing a dam to burst and washing away dozens of homes and farms.


https://robertscribbler.com/2018/05/02/climate-change-ignores-all-borders-as-rain-bombs-fall-on-kauai-and-the-middle-east-alike/

Now, you might think “Hail, that is chunks of ice, so maybe the world is cooling?” and Booby’s hero is pulling that scam as much as he can. Hail is formed high up in the atmosphere in thunderstorms with lots of convection happening—air shoots up, encounters lower pressure, expands and cools. Moisture condenses and can even freeze. If tiny bits of ice cling together (the structure of the water molecule, H2O per mits and promotes that) then the ice particles start falling. It can then encounter the centre of the storm again and be sent way up in the atmosphere and the hail particles grow.

The bigger the thunderstorm to bigger the hail can get to before gravity takes over and we get a hail fall. So, yes, hail is frozen water but it is frozen way up in the atmosphere where it is always cool not on the surface. The more AGW the bigger the thunderstorms can be and so the bigger the hail.
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Re: Consequences of AGW

Postby pinkeye » 05 May 2018, 00:07

And Nthn India.. now people are dying from wind/sand storms, which are generating their own electricity, and lightning strikes have been hitting houses.

Probably that system moving East.

Our STORMS, whatever their source or nature, are going to get bigger and bigger.
WE have interfered SO MUCH with the natural frequently occurring processes, that our MOTHER, Earth, is going to have to wipe us off HER FACE.
We are simply too big for our boots.

look at Continental US.? Massive tornadoes predicted this weekend.
We don't hear much about these things do we.?

PERHAPS?
one of the major consequences of AGW will be an utter failure by world governments, who WILL, are, suppressing the information they know, and urge us all to carry on as if nothing is REALLY occurring. Like the Libs and the Nats, (the LNP Coalition) who STILL ARE FIGHTING TOOTH AND NAIL TO PRODUCE MORE COAL. !!
:roll :roll

You know, I think some committees (aka the Coalition) are beginning to realise they've REALLY gotten it wrong. BUT they refuse to admit it. :WTF
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Re: Consequences of AGW

Postby HBS Guy » 05 May 2018, 10:58

Funny how the so–called “free market” Parties (Greens/Nats/Libs) are so opposed to market solutions.

The Gillard ETS was classic market oriented: put some penalty on emissions and people and companies will find ways to lower emissions. It should have been auction based from the start but the fucking Greens insisted on a “fixed price transition period” and so “tiny abort” :bgrin could rescind it easily. They blocked the CPRS for party-political reasons so the bloody Greens blocked BOTH attempts to reduce emissions!

I am glad to see that others are spreading the message that the Greens are no longer left/progressive/environmental but just another bunch of neocons.

I DO hope Shorten does not make a broad working together deal. They are just a Party to deal with to get specific Bills through the Senate.
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Re: Consequences of AGW

Postby HBS Guy » 06 May 2018, 08:54

AGW doesn’t just bring heat, rising sea levels and extreme weather. It also brings disease spreading organisms into new areas aas warming there allows these critters to expand their range.

Read about the lone star tick, now found all the way to Maine. Winters just aren’t cold enough to kill the ticks and their eggs.

Ticks are the second biggest vector of disease after mosquitoes.

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/meet-the-tick-thats-forcing-americans-to-give-up-their-meat_us_5aeb47a9e4b041fd2d244a19

With the orange mess in the White House government bodies can no longer say “AGW” because the idiot thinks you can prevent something by not mentioning it. So “environmental change” is what public bodies have to use. It means AGW tho.
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Re: Consequences of AGW

Postby HBS Guy » 06 May 2018, 08:58

Sea level rise off the east coast of the US is accelerating:

In 2016, Charleston saw 50 days of tidal flooding.

Fifty years ago? Just four days.

Flooding projections are set at about 25 percent above average for 2017-18 for areas including Wilmington, according to a recent NOAA report.

Wilmington had 84 days of high-tide flooding in 2016, according to NOAA.

“It is important for planning purposes that U.S. coastal cities become better informed about the extent that high-tide flooding is increasing and will likely increase in the coming decades,” according to the February 2018 NOAA report.

..

When a state science panel reported in 2010 that seas on the coastline could rise by as much as 39 inches over the next century, legislators passed a law forbidding communities from using the report to make new rules.


http://www.islandpacket.com/news/state/north-carolina/article210413904.html

You have to love that last para in the quote. Sympathetic magic I think is the term.
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Re: Consequences of AGW

Postby HBS Guy » 06 May 2018, 09:20

NOT a consequence of AGW or of the supposed Grand Solar Minimum or of cosmic rays. Just the Pacific Ring of Fire at work, but all the ice age frauds will be claiming it is and morons like Booby and The Moronic will believe it.

Electric universe, magnetism, cosmic rays yadda yadda yadda. Crap. Earthquakes and volcanoes are caused deep down in the crust and mantle. That volcano had been erupting continuously for a anyway, guess activity kicked up a notch.

Read up on “plate tectonics.”
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Re: Consequences of AGW

Postby pinkeye » 06 May 2018, 23:01

So, basically you see nothing worth commenting on in the Southern Hemisphere. You know? Where WE live.?

The Big Island is about to go BOOM. That IS getting closer to home. I 'm beginning to wonder where you actually live Monk.
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Re: Consequences of AGW

Postby HBS Guy » 06 May 2018, 23:44

If anything pops up about the Southern Hemisphere I will post about it. But winter is coming here so doubt any great thawing/calving is going to happen.
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Re: Consequences of AGW

Postby pinkeye » 07 May 2018, 23:34

I don't think OUR winter will change the warm currents flowing into Antarctica.
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Re: Consequences of AGW

Postby HBS Guy » 07 May 2018, 23:46

See the post on Antarctica?
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Re: Consequences of AGW

Postby pinkeye » 07 May 2018, 23:50

HBS Guy wrote:See the post on Antarctica?


re the Thwaites Glacier./
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Re: Consequences of AGW

Postby HBS Guy » 07 May 2018, 23:58

Antarctica abnormally warm for this time of year.
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Re: Consequences of AGW

Postby HBS Guy » 09 May 2018, 07:29

The central Arctic is warm.Normally there are clouds which offset the albedo of the open ocean, mitigating some of the warming but there is a high pressure system which tends to clear clouds.

I just want to go ahead and call your attention to the barometric variable as well (which Neven astutely pointed out above). If you have high pressure over the Central Arctic, it tends to clear out the clouds. This, in turn, enhances melt pond formation. If you’ve got a combo of high pressure + very warm temps + reduced cloud cover during May and June it’s a real killer combo for sea ice come end melt season.

Right now, we have high pressure centered over the Beaufort and tending to dominate the Central Arctic. We still have a warm storm kind of situation East of Greenland — which is funneling warm air, liquid precipitation and higher seas into that region. In my opinion, the warm rain through that region is completely counter to expected variables. So the sunshine variable may need to have an * added.


Image

https://robertscribbler.com/2018/05/07/arctic-ocean-deep-in-the-grips-of-may-temperature-spike-beastly-summer-melt-season-on-the-way/#comment-142515

Could be a HUGE melt this NH summer.
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Re: Consequences of AGW

Postby HBS Guy » 16 May 2018, 12:14

Arctic ice extent.

Image

Despite 2016 being an El Nino year and this NH winter and spring were during a weak La Nina the ice extent is not much different.

Weird—but explained by the rather radical warming in the Arctic in the winter and now in the spring.

How this will play out in the summer remains to be seen but there could be a big melt following on the warmth, waves and rain in the Arctic winter and spring. Multiyear ice is down to a tiny percent and one year ice can be easily broken up by waves or melted etc.

If a big melt happens early in the summer the sun will hit dark ocean, further warming it.
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