Hurricanes in 2017, the AGW connection

Let us record here scientific papers on AGW, record happenings in the Arctic, Greenland, the Himalayan ice sheet and Antarctica. Also weatherstorms and higher than average rainfalls

Hurricanes in 2017, the AGW connection

Postby HBS Guy » 14 Sep 2017, 21:59

There has been no let up since Hurricane Harvey dumped record-breaking rains on the Houston area of Texas. Hurricane Irma lashed parts of the Caribbean and Cuba and is now heading onto the US mainland, having devastated the Florida Keys and the state’s west coast.

We also have Hurricane Jose following Irma through the Caribbean, and Hurricane Katia, now downgraded after tracking through parts of eastern Mexico

Read more: Are catastrophic disasters striking more often?

This very active season comes after a “hurricane drought” with very few major storms making landfall on the US coast over the previous decade.

So why are we seeing so many hurricanes now? Is climate change to blame?

How to make a hurricane

There are several vital ingredients needed for hurricanes to form. These include an initial disturbance in the atmosphere for the storm to form around, very warm sea surface temperatures to sustain the storm, and a lack of vertical wind shear so the storm is not torn apart during its formation.

In the Atlantic Ocean, hurricanes often form near Cape Verde off the coast of West Africa. They then track westward towards the Caribbean and the US.

Lots of factors can affect how strong these storms ultimately become, including how much time they spend gathering strength over the ocean, and the background weather patterns through which they travel.

Image



This storm season we have seen sea temperatures persistently 1-2℃ above normal over the tropical Atlantic Ocean, which has allowed stronger storms to form and develop.

Atlantic sea temperatures have warmed over the past century, thus enhancing one of the key ingredients for hurricane formation. The climate change influence is clear for the sea temperatures, but not so much for the other ingredients required in forming hurricanes.


“sea temperatures persistently 1-2℃ above normal” Yup that will feed monster storms alright! And some dickheads think we are in an ice age :WTF

While we have low confidence in the effect of human-caused climate change on hurricane formation, it is clear that climate change is enhancing some of the impacts of these storms.

Hurricane Harvey hit southern Texas hard by stalling over the Houston area and dumping huge amounts of rain. Climate change might have contributed to the stalling effect, but what’s clearer is that climate change is making intense extreme rainfall events like we saw over Houston more likely. By warming the atmosphere we’re also increasing its capacity to carry moisture.

When we have the trigger for heavy rainfall, climate change makes it rain harder.


“When we have the trigger for heavy rainfall, climate change makes it rain harder.” AGW makes the seas and air warmer causing much more evaporation and warmer air can hold more moisture. I have said this many times before. More rain, more hail and more snow, depending on location and season when the trigger starts the precipitation.

Hurricane Irma is a very different beast to Harvey. It devastated several Caribbean islands including Anguilla and the Virgin Islands when it was a Category 5 system. It then struck Cuba before re-intensifying and moving north across the Florida Keys and onto the US mainland.

Irma’s main impacts have been through the storm surge, the strong winds and the heavy rains.

Climate change has likely worsened the effects of Irma. As described above, we know that climate change is intensifying extreme rain events. We also know that climate change is worsening storm surges by raising the background sea level on which these events occur.

Ed Hawkins‏Verified account @ed_hawkins Sep 10 More

Desperate situation for Florida today. Relative sea levels at Key West have risen ~30cm in past century, meaning storm surge likely worse.


[In another tweet Ed Hawkins explains maybe 1/4 of the 30cm is due to subsidence of the land due to adjustment to the loss of last icesheet.]


Sea levels are projected to rise further over the coming century, by 50-100cm under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario, and 20-50cm if we greatly reduce our emissions.

So while it’s likely that climate change is contributing to more extreme hurricanes, we have even more confidence that climate change is worsening the impacts of these storms, and will continue to do so over the coming decades.


That effects Queensland too, it gets hit by tropical cyclones.

It’s clear that climate has worsened the impacts of Atlantic hurricanes and will continue to do so. Improved forecasting provides a glimmer of hope that the death tolls from future events can be reduced, even as the economic impacts increase.


https://theconversation.com/irma-and-harvey-very-different-storms-but-both-affected-by-climate-change-83800
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Re: Hurricanes in 2017, the AGW connection

Postby Sir Bobby » 15 Sep 2017, 11:53

Keep your ice age nonsense to the ice age nonsense thread. Thanks, Mod.
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Re: Hurricanes in 2017, the AGW connection

Postby Sir Bobby » 15 Sep 2017, 12:05

Keep to the topic of subforum and thread. Mod.
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Re: Hurricanes in 2017, the AGW connection

Postby HBS Guy » 28 Sep 2017, 00:05

PM of Dominica in the Caribean, hard hit by Hurricane Maria, pleads at the US for nations to address climate change ““Heat is the fuel that takes ordinary storms ― storms we could normally master in our sleep ― and supercharges them into a devastating force,” he said.”

I hope those in the right places take heed and act now!

http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/entry/dominica-hurricane-climate-change-roosevelt-skerrit_us_59c916f0e4b01cc57ff3f094
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Re: Hurricanes in 2017, the AGW connection

Postby Sir Bobby » 28 Sep 2017, 21:05

Sir Bobby wrote:Keep to the topic of subforum and thread. Mod.


Jovial - there's not much point me posting about climate change on your forum -
you delete nearly all of my posts.

What a great way you have of winning an argument.
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Re: Hurricanes in 2017, the AGW connection

Postby HBS Guy » 28 Sep 2017, 21:08

Stay on topic and don’t c&p all the time.

Here is the only place where your idiotic Dubyne crap is discussed!
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Re: Hurricanes in 2017, the AGW connection

Postby Sir Bobby » 28 Sep 2017, 21:16

HBS Guy wrote:Stay on topic and don’t c&p all the time.

Here is the only where your idiotic Dubyne crap is discussed!



No - I'm not posting about climate on your forum unless you promise to stop deleting nearly all my posts.
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Re: Hurricanes in 2017, the AGW connection

Postby HBS Guy » 28 Sep 2017, 21:24

There are two rules.

No c&p crap—your words

Stay on topic.

If you want to post crap about GCRs don’t bother, I will post that they do not cause condensation of water vapor so no clouds. You can verify that with a minute googling.
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Re: Hurricanes in 2017, the AGW connection

Postby Sir Bobby » 28 Sep 2017, 21:34

Increased Galactic cosmic rays are caused by a change in the Sun's magnetic field.
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Re: Hurricanes in 2017, the AGW connection

Postby HBS Guy » 28 Sep 2017, 21:39

I would like to see evidence of that.

In any case, GCRs do not cause condensation of water vapor so do not cause clouds. Dubyne had to make this crap up as AGW is causing more evaporation from warmer seas into warmer air which can hold more moisture (7.7% more per 1°C temperature increase and even Curry said that) hence feeding hurricanes with more heat energy and more moisture.

So, Monk 1 Dubyne 0.
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Re: Hurricanes in 2017, the AGW connection

Postby Sir Bobby » 28 Sep 2017, 21:42

HBS Guy wrote:I would like to see evidence of that.

In any case, GCRs do not cause condensation of water vapor so do not cause clouds. Dubyne had to make this crap up as AGW is causing more evaporation from warmer seas into warmer air which can hold more moisture (7.7% more per 1°C temperature increase and even Curry said that) hence feeding hurricanes with more heat energy and more moisture.

So, Mon 1 Dubyne 0.



DuByne backs his videos up with between 5 and 20 links.
I assure you that if you'd read the links you'd see the evidence but
you're an ostrich convinced of your own ideas.

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Re: Hurricanes in 2017, the AGW connection

Postby HBS Guy » 28 Sep 2017, 21:47

Do a google, don’t be a forcefed goose!

Have a look at the first topic in Politics.
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Re: Hurricanes in 2017, the AGW connection

Postby HBS Guy » 28 Sep 2017, 21:58

Look, here is the abstract of one scientific study into GCR-condensation:

Abstract

[1] Although controversial, many observations have suggested that low-level cloud cover correlates with the cosmic ray flux. Because galactic cosmic rays have likely decreased in intensity over the last century, this hypothesis, if true, could partly explain 20th century warming, thereby upsetting the consensus view that greenhouse-gas forcing has caused most of the warming. The “ion-aerosol clear-air” hypothesis suggests that increased cosmic rays cause increases in new-particle formation, cloud condensation nuclei concentrations (CCN), and cloud cover. In this paper, we present the first calculations of the magnitude of the ion-aerosol clear-air mechanism using a general circulation model with online aerosol microphysics. In our simulations, changes in CCN from changes in cosmic rays during a solar cycle are two orders of magnitude too small to account for the observed changes in cloud properties; consequently, we conclude that the hypothesized effect is too small to play a significant role in current climate change.


http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2009GL037946/full

Grow a backbone and do your own checks FFS! :smack
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Re: Hurricanes in 2017, the AGW connection

Postby Sir Bobby » 28 Sep 2017, 22:29

One opinion yet I posted many videos with the opposite view & you never watched them or checked the links.
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Re: Hurricanes in 2017, the AGW connection

Postby HBS Guy » 28 Sep 2017, 22:33

You have obviously never checked the liar’s links out. I did a couple of times (so did a couple others at OzPol) only to find the links didn’t say what the liar said they did.

Grow a backbone Booby, check everything you are told! I bet you have donated $1000 to Dubyne and have no idea just HM you spent on all that survival junk. Sell it off, prepare for a long hot spring and summer with numerous blackouts!
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Re: Hurricanes in 2017, the AGW connection

Postby HBS Guy » 07 Oct 2017, 13:06

Another hurricane is heading for the Caribbean and the US. This image shows the previous storm on the NE coast of the US:

Image
Four storms: Hurricane Katia in the western Atlantic between Bermuda and the US East coast; tropical storm Lee's remnants affecting the north-eastern US, tropical storm Maria in the central Atlantic; and newborn Nate in the Bay of Campeche, Gulf of Mexico. Photo: NASA/NOAA GOES
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