Federal election 2019—polling.

Re: Federal election 2019—polling.

Postby Dax » 15 May 2019, 09:41

I hope labor doesn't win and I also hope the libs don't win, I want to government of independents. At leas they don't have the same amount of vested interests who always end up hijacking the policy agenda. Both parties duly support Adani along with other coal and destructive industry, none of them support 21st century industry, just last century destructive industry. I want a hung parliament that is dictated to be independents, who have a better chance of getting things done that the people want.
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Re: Federal election 2019—polling.

Postby Sprintcyclist » 15 May 2019, 09:55

labor have it cold
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Re: Federal election 2019—polling.

Postby HBS Guy » 16 May 2019, 04:07

Finally the Essential poll for this week—from the Guardian:

Labor remains ahead of the Coalition in the final Guardian Essential poll of the 2019 campaign, and a majority of voters believe Bill Shorten will be the winner on Saturday night.

The final survey of 1,201 voters has Labor in front of the Coalition 51.5% to 48.5% on the two-party preferred measure, which is the same as last week. The Coalition’s primary vote is 38.5% (up from 38% a week ago) and Labor’s is 36.2% (up from 34%).


https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/16/essential-poll-majority-of-voters-think-bill-shorten-will-be-the-winner-on-saturday

All these tiny movements “up 0.5% from last week” etc we know is just noise.

51.5 is a good number, regardless of movements in swing/marginal seats etc. Libs need to win seats to win majority government. They will likely get Wentworth back as Libs furious at turdfull’s dumping return to the fold, but they need 2 more and likely won’t get them.

1201 voters is one week’s sample, not the usual ER 2 week combined sample, makes it a better result.
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Re: Federal election 2019—polling.

Postby HBS Guy » 16 May 2019, 17:17

An IPSOS poll may be announced within the hour (Ch9 news if anyone watches that.)
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Re: Federal election 2019—polling.

Postby johnsmith » 16 May 2019, 18:13

sportsbet is so sure of labors win, they have already paid out the punters who bet on labor. Including paying out on several bets of $1m+

That wouldn't happen unless they were absolutely sure.

https://news.sportsbet.com.au/novelty/sportsbet-pays-out-early-on-labor-to-win-election/
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Re: Federal election 2019—polling.

Postby Aussie » 16 May 2019, 18:18

johnsmith wrote:sportsbet is so sure of labors win, they have already paid out the punters who bet on labor. Including paying out on several bets of $1m+

That wouldn't happen unless they were absolutely sure.

https://news.sportsbet.com.au/novelty/sportsbet-pays-out-early-on-labor-to-win-election/


I see what I read...but I don't believe it. Jayzuz, Shorten might rape Morrison's Mum before Saturday at 6.00 pm.
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Re: Federal election 2019—polling.

Postby johnsmith » 16 May 2019, 18:42

Aussie wrote:
johnsmith wrote:sportsbet is so sure of labors win, they have already paid out the punters who bet on labor. Including paying out on several bets of $1m+

That wouldn't happen unless they were absolutely sure.

https://news.sportsbet.com.au/novelty/sportsbet-pays-out-early-on-labor-to-win-election/


I see what I read...but I don't believe it. Jayzuz, Shorten might rape Morrison's Mum before Saturday at 6.00 pm.


shorten has more taste than that . :roll
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Re: Federal election 2019—polling.

Postby HBS Guy » 16 May 2019, 20:00

#Ipsos Poll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 49 (+1) ALP 51 (-1)

(PB)

PVs:
GhostWhoVotes
@GhostWhoVotes
#Ipsos Poll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 39 (+3) ALP 33 (0) GRN 13 (-1) ON 4 (-1) UAP 3 (0) #auspol



Same as Essential, really. Crap poll—Greens are not on 13%, more like 9. No way the Libs moved up 3% either.
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Re: Federal election 2019—polling.

Postby pinkeye » 16 May 2019, 21:58

oh well thank goodness it'll all be over soon.
sleeping is good for you
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Re: Federal election 2019—polling.

Postby HBS Guy » 16 May 2019, 22:21

Libs back out to $7.00 on Betfair.
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Re: Federal election 2019—polling.

Postby HBS Guy » 17 May 2019, 09:01

Apparently IPSOS have trouble polling women under 35 who don’t answer phone calls from unrecognised numbers.

So, applying figures from NewsPoll etc, Green on 9 then:

L/NP 39 (+3) ALP 33 (0) GRN 13 (-1) ON 4 (-1) UAP 3 (0)

Becomes L/NP 39 (+3) ALP 37 (0) GRN 9 (-1) ON 4 (-1) UAP 3 (0)—better for Labor as the 4% taken from Green is applied 100% to Labor not just 70-80% or so from preferences.

One other thing to bear in mind: polsters are distributing 60% of the UAP/ON vote to Libs. It won’t be anything like that.

If you have seen Galaxy (MyGov) seat polling released during the day by News publications these polls are of just 540 in each seat. This gives a margin of error of around 5%. There are shitloads of Coalition seats on under 1%, many of those will fall tomorrow.
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Re: Federal election 2019—polling.

Postby HBS Guy » 17 May 2019, 19:31

Other thing about seat polls:

https://www.pollbludger.net/2016/07/25/pollster-performance-review/

…seat polls behaved is if they had a margin of error more like 7% than 4%, and its right-of-centre placement illustrates a statistically significant 1.3% bias to the Coalition.


So all those 51:40 and 50:50 seat polls are better for us than it seems at face value.
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Re: Federal election 2019—polling.

Postby pinkeye » 18 May 2019, 02:15

well I'll bid you all good night/morning...
sleeping is good for you
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Re: Federal election 2019—polling.

Postby HBS Guy » 18 May 2019, 06:34

Newspoll:

GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 9h9 hours ago More

#Newspoll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 48.5 (-0.5) ALP 51.5 (+0.5) #auspol


PVs

@GhostWhoVotes Following Following @GhostWhoVotes More

#Newspoll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 38 (-1) ALP 37 (0) GRN 9 (0) UAP 4 (0) ON 3 (-1) #auspol


That is a Labor win!

Probably narrow but 79-80 seats allows a Speaker and 78-79, 2-3 seat majority.

We might long for a wipeout of the Libs, 20-30 seat advantage, but a huge, idle backbench with nothing to do spells trouble. 79-80 is comfortable.

Been speculation that abbot (IF re-elected) would make a great LOTO. Maybe he would be not so good against a majority govt.
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Re: Federal election 2019—polling.

Postby HBS Guy » 18 May 2019, 07:25

More on the NewsPoll from the PollBludger himself:

The Australian brings us the final Newspoll of the campaign, and it lands bang on the uniform pollster consensus in recording Labor with a lead of 51.5-48.5. Last week’s Newspoll had it at 51-49, but that result involved rounding to whole numbers. On the primary vote, Labor is steady on 37% and, contrary to Ipsos and Essential Research, the Coalition is down a point to 38%; the Green are steady on 9%; the United Australia Party is steady on 4%; and One Nation is down one to 3%.

The poll has a bumper sample of 3008. . . However, the addition of the Newspoll result does cause Labor to make one gain on the seat projection, that being in Victoria, although it has only made a 0.1% difference on the national two-party preferred.


https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/05/17/newspoll-51-5-48-5-labor/

So a decent sized poll. Don’t forget there is an overgenerous allocation of preferences to UAP+ON.

Labor has firmed in NSW too, one place Libs were doing a bit better. Maybe no new seats but firming up Labor odds in the marginals there like Robertson. IPSOS gives an unrealistically high Labor support figure for NSW.

The school across the road from here, a polling booth, has about thirty Labor signs on the fence by the gate.

The mess stops today!

Have read mention of Lib Ministers’ officers being cleared. sensitive papers being destroyed, computer hard disks being wiped—have not seen any actual hard evidence of that tho. Would believe it—the Parties know the state of play!

Now if abbot and dutton lose their seats I would not be sober for a week!

A last note: a fair bit of the polling was done before Hawke’s death was announced.
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Re: Federal election 2019—polling.

Postby HBS Guy » 18 May 2019, 07:43

Rocket Rocket says:
Friday, May 17, 2019 at 10:59 pm

sprocket

Just love seeing that little “lower house” graphic on The Australian webpage finally move – now to Labor 80, Coalition 65 and Other 6.


https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/05/17/newspoll-51-5-48-5-labor/comment-page-1/#comment-3175731
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Re: Federal election 2019—polling.

Postby HBS Guy » 18 May 2019, 09:18

:rofl :rofl :rofl

poroti says:
Saturday, May 18, 2019 at 7:31 am
:bgrin Shorten going for a jog. His t-shirt says “Vote 1. Chloe Shorten’s Husband”



:rofl :rofl :rofl
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Re: Federal election 2019—polling.

Postby johnsmith » 18 May 2019, 09:50

HBS Guy wrote::rofl :rofl :rofl

poroti says:
Saturday, May 18, 2019 at 7:31 am
:bgrin Shorten going for a jog. His t-shirt says “Vote 1. Chloe Shorten’s Husband”



:rofl :rofl :rofl

:rofl :rofl
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