Federal election 2019—polling.

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Re: Federal election 2019—polling.

Postby HBS Guy » 12 May 2019, 21:12

The real Dave says:

Saturday, May 11, 2019 at 10:51 am
From betting sites of Queensland seats – ALP gains – Dickson, Flynn, Force and Petrie.
LNP gain – Herbert.
Too close to call – Bonner, Capricorna, Dawson and Leicthard.
Still looking good for Labor.


There you go! A good majority to Labor just in Qld.

Furthermore, while Bill has been campaigning in Lib held seats. . .so has Scummo.
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Re: Federal election 2019—polling.

Postby HBS Guy » 13 May 2019, 10:32

GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes

#Galaxy Poll Federal Seat of Mayo 2 Party Preferred: Sharkie CA 57 LIB 43 #auspol


Ghost has never had a poll result wrong. Dunno who he is, a journo likely, gets the poll results earlier than anyone else. Love the illusion to The Phantom “Ghost who walks.”
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Re: Federal election 2019—polling.

Postby Aussie » 13 May 2019, 11:00

HBS Guy wrote:
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes

#Galaxy Poll Federal Seat of Mayo 2 Party Preferred: Sharkie CA 57 LIB 43 #auspol


Ghost has never had a poll result wrong. Dunno who he is, a journo likely, gets the poll results earlier than anyone else. Love the illusion to The Phantom “Ghost who walks.”


Isn't that where Downer's daughter is the Lib candidate?
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Re: Federal election 2019—polling.

Postby HBS Guy » 13 May 2019, 11:13

The same. A Newspoll, allegedly showing the Lib PV increasing (not believable, really) but Labor still ahead on TPP has apparently been released. Am going through the PollBludger looking for it and William’s (The Poll Bludger hisself) analysis. Stay tuned.

Last night was the last high-rating night in the campaign:
William Bowe says:
Sunday, May 12, 2019 at 9:17 pm
Elsewhere …

Stephen Mayne
@MayneReport
Seems to be more Labor attack ads than Liberal hits on 60 Minutes and Seven’s Sunday Night on this final high rating Sunday night before Australia decides.


Seems SBS was running “Australia can’t afford this Bill” repeatedly. Labor was spending money where most of the audience is.

As the campaign has gone on Morrison has been campaigning more and more in Lib held seats (or in seats next to Lib held marginals, trying to make his desperation less obvious) and so has Bill. That would be based on internal Party polling/tracking polls and it is obvious what message they are sending the Parties. Labor is on the attack, the Libs on the defensive.
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Re: Federal election 2019—polling.

Postby HBS Guy » 13 May 2019, 11:19

51 ALP 49 LNP official


From a PollBludger commenter. How official?

51:49 with about 20% (IIRC) already having voted is pretty damn good. I think the more details Party polls tho show stronger support for Labor, especially support where it counts, in the Lib marginals.

so both Labor and LNP PV goes up 1%? Statistical NOISE people!!!


(Another Bludger commenter.)

Anything under 2.8% is noise in these polls.

Yup 51:49 unchanged according to GwV. That is official.
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Re: Federal election 2019—polling.

Postby HBS Guy » 13 May 2019, 11:35

The news gets better!

Big lift in ALP primary..


Labor remains poised to win government next weekend with Bill Shorten receiving a boost to his personal ratings despite a further lift in popular support for the Coalition.

An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian shows the race to next Saturday’s poll remains tightly contested with the Coalition lifting its primary vote a point to 39 per cent going into the final week of the campaign.

But it has not been enough to shift the two party preferred vote with Labor still leading on 51/49 per cent after also lifting its core support a point to 37 per cent.

The results follow the release of Labor’s policy costings last Friday which the Coalition believed would be the weak link in Mr Shorten’s campaign.

They also are likely to reflect the impassioned public response from the Opposition leader to newspaper reports last week suggesting he had been selective when citing his late mother’s career achievements

While the headline numbers are largely unchanged from last week’s poll, Mr Shorten’s personal ratings received a boost.

He has now closed the gap on Scott Morrison to seven points in the contest over who would make the better prime minister lifting three points to 38 per cent while Mr Morrison dropped back a point to 45 per cent.

The number of undecided voters was 17 per cent.


(PB)

You expect the (known) PM to rate better than an Opposition Leader people don’t know as well.

Interesting comment re PM ratings:
BK says:
Sunday, May 12, 2019 at 9:38 pm
The 7 points PPM difference is interesting given the work referenced here on PB some time ago that PM incumbency is worth about 16 points of difference.


No idea how true that is.
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Re: Federal election 2019—polling.

Postby HBS Guy » 13 May 2019, 11:44

Ipsos 52/48.


(PB)
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Re: Federal election 2019—polling.

Postby HBS Guy » 13 May 2019, 11:47

If the mains are increasing (don’t really know, MoE being 2.8%) then the minors are losing support. You would expect that, maybe, people flirt with voting for XYZ Party then a candidate for that Party says something stupid or no campaign literature is distributed etc so he goes back to the familiar.
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Re: Federal election 2019—polling.

Postby HBS Guy » 13 May 2019, 11:48

I really hope the Greens are losing support. Hypocrites is the kindest thing I can say about it, blocked BOTH attempts to price carbon!
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Re: Federal election 2019—polling.

Postby HBS Guy » 13 May 2019, 11:51

Lift in primaries (if real) could be undecideds making up their mind. Probably a combination.

[17% undecideds] It’s the lowest level since the 2013 election
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Re: Federal election 2019—polling.

Postby HBS Guy » 13 May 2019, 11:56

The Clive factor and this Newspoll—posting it not endorsing it because I don’t know—I have been amazingly out of this campaign due to the trip to Tassie.

Surprised Newspoll didn’t tick up a point at least to 52-48, but I guess if you run preferences from UAP at 2013 levels and not this mythical 60-40 to the LNP you probably do get 52-48 ALP.

I’m more inclined to believe the campaign. Morrison campaigning in only lib seats, including some very safe ones, and a general sense of desperation about everything they do.


(PB)

I do endorse the second para and said something similar a post or two up. Clive is spending a LOT of money advertising but he is not a newby and he did not impress last time and his Party soon fell apart.
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Re: Federal election 2019—polling.

Postby HBS Guy » 13 May 2019, 11:59

Breakdown of the NewsPoll (hope to hear more about that IPSOS poll result soon.)

michael says:
Sunday, May 12, 2019 at 9:37 pm
Coal 39 +1
Lab 37 +1
Green 9
Onat 4 -1
Palm 4
Others 7 -1


(PB)

Hmmm Palmer is unchanged according to Newspoll. 60% of 4 = 2.4. Take away even the 0.4 from that (minor Party voters do not tend to follow the HTV) and that would make Labor more like 52.

The ON drop of 1% could explain the +1% increase in Lib PV. The voters could have switched to Palmer or that Anning.
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Re: Federal election 2019—polling.

Postby HBS Guy » 13 May 2019, 12:12

Somebody else not happy with the 2PP:

51-49

But those primaries:

LNP 39 (still below 40, and 3.5% below 2016)
ALP 37 (2+ on 2016)
Greens 9
ON 4
UAP 4
Others 7(?)

I call shenanigans on that 2PP. Smells like close to 53-47 and certainly over 52-48 to Labor.


A lot seems to be based on the distribution of preferences from the UAP, Clive’s mob. I do not see minor Party voters as following the HTV card closely. Could well be 52:48. But that could be me wishing :bgrin
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Re: Federal election 2019—polling.

Postby HBS Guy » 13 May 2019, 12:22

Antony Green (he gets prickly if you call him AntHony:)

According to Antony Green’s calculator a 51-49 result for the ALP will give them 77 seats to Coalition 68 and 6 independents.

76 seats are needed to govern in their own right.


https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-01/federal-election-2019-antony-green-house-of-reps-calculator/10872122

I think some PBs are right—the Libs might be getting a swing to them in their safest seats—the imputation stuff that hits only the wealthiest retirees who pay no tax.
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Re: Federal election 2019—polling.

Postby HBS Guy » 13 May 2019, 12:36

Betting markets not shifting one iota. Eg Sportsbet ALP 1.13, LNP 6.00


Remember someone placed a $1m bet on Labor at $1.23 last week? Now it is $1.13 on Labor.
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Re: Federal election 2019—polling.

Postby HBS Guy » 13 May 2019, 14:53

Re Clive:

William Bowe says:
Monday, May 13, 2019 at 10:04 am

I’ve added primary vote numbers from the seat polls to the post, if anyone’s interested. The UAP vote in Herbert is at half what it was at the start of the campaign.


Oh dear, lot of money spent for little return.
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Re: Federal election 2019—polling.

Postby johnsmith » 13 May 2019, 17:11

HBS Guy wrote:Re Clive:

William Bowe says:
Monday, May 13, 2019 at 10:04 am

I’ve added primary vote numbers from the seat polls to the post, if anyone’s interested. The UAP vote in Herbert is at half what it was at the start of the campaign.


Oh dear, lot of money spent for little return.



i Hope by he doesn't get himself a senate seat. I know it;s unlikely given supporters like sprint, but the man doesn't deserve it.
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Re: Federal election 2019—polling.

Postby HBS Guy » 13 May 2019, 20:34

Sprint supports Heil Anning!
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Re: Federal election 2019—polling.

Postby pinkeye » 13 May 2019, 23:11

Media heaven.. all elections are.
I will do my duty.

And will be really glad when its over.!!


I hope for a change of government.... I expect nothing.
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Re: Federal election 2019—polling.

Postby HBS Guy » 14 May 2019, 00:15

State by state Newspoll:

SA 52/48 Lab
WA 52/48 Lib
Qld 50/50
Vic 54/46 Lab
NSW&ACT 51/49 Lib


+4.1 in QLD to ALP . – small drop to ALP in SA

(PB)

Look at Vic!

Labor could pick up Boothby in SA. Hope so! I have never had a Labor MHR there, had Ralf Jacobi when my past of the seat was in Hawker in the Whitlam years. One of my first acts of political activity was letterboxing in Eden Hills.
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Re: Federal election 2019—polling.

Postby pinkeye » 14 May 2019, 04:14

I am getting NO info here aout the candidates, except the rote statements from Bucholz and Van Manen. That's Wright and Forde, held by the LNP. One safe . Bucholz in Wright,, and one on a razor's edge Van Manen in Forde.


The local papers have had nothing from any other candidates.


But you have to remember this is QLD.! :roll
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Re: Federal election 2019—polling.

Postby HBS Guy » 14 May 2019, 10:34

No Essential today which is a bit odd, could be they will release a bigger poll later in the week.
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Re: Federal election 2019—polling.

Postby HBS Guy » 14 May 2019, 15:32

Morgan Poll

52-48 ALP

@GhostWhoVotes



Who cares about Morgan? But, that is it for what it is worth.
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Re: Federal election 2019—polling.

Postby HBS Guy » 14 May 2019, 20:57

Essential is out, apparently (have not sighted it myself:)

53:47 to Labor.

ER not the most accurate but a nice trend over the last 3 weeks. I assume this will be a bigger sample than usual.
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Re: Federal election 2019—polling.

Postby pinkeye » 14 May 2019, 22:13

well lets hope the polls aren't too far wrong.
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