Federal election 2019—polling.

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Federal election 2019—polling.

Postby HBS Guy » 30 Apr 2019, 11:52

Apparently Libs have closed the gap on Labor to 51:49.

Baloney, of course, just another “rogue” poll. Useful tho, some who may have been flirting with voting for the Libs or put Labor lower on the voting slip etc will now realise that the time is not right for a “protest vote.”


https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/election-2019/2019/04/28/federal-election-2019-race-tightens-as-labor-targets-senior-votes-on-dental-care/
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Re: Federal election 2019—polling.

Postby Sprintcyclist » 30 Apr 2019, 15:10

It is never right to do a 'protest' vote, or a 'donkey' vote.

Vote for who you want to govern you for 7 years.
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Re: Federal election 2019—polling.

Postby hatty » 01 May 2019, 06:48

is kodos running for HoR?

in all seriousness this is going to be closer than i ever imagined.

how will the preference deal the LNP struck with old mate clive affect things?.... is my burning question!
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Re: Federal election 2019—polling.

Postby HBS Guy » 01 May 2019, 06:54

Clive is gunning for the Senate, likely to get in.
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Re: Federal election 2019—polling.

Postby HBS Guy » 01 May 2019, 06:55

Re how the prefs deal works out, could backfire if Labor really hits hard about the unpaid Qld Nickel Refinery workers etc.
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Re: Federal election 2019—polling.

Postby Bongalong » 01 May 2019, 10:58

Sprintcyclist wrote:It is never right to do a 'protest' vote, or a 'donkey' vote.

Vote for who you want to govern you for 7 years.

Who made you head honcho?
"Oi!"
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Re: Federal election 2019—polling.

Postby HBS Guy » 07 May 2019, 07:38

Paul Bongiorno suggests that apart from a tightening (which might not be real) at the start of the campaign support has not moved and Labor looks likely to take government.

Good, time to end the shambles of the dregs of the dregs of the Fraser govt. To the wilderness, hopefully to return to the centre of the political spectrum.

Essential: 51:49

The betting market, said to be a better indicator than the polls looking good:
[url]Labor's odds for a win have firmed from $1.27 to $1.22 while the Coalition has eased to $4.25 from $3.50.[/url]

From the murde-och press I refuse to link to.
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Re: Federal election 2019—polling.

Postby HBS Guy » 07 May 2019, 16:32

Essential this week 52:48. Seems a more acceptable result, statistically speaking.

54% of voters expect Labor to win. They better!
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Re: Federal election 2019—polling.

Postby HBS Guy » 08 May 2019, 16:53

Read around the traps:

Ladbrokes reports that someone in NSW has just place $1,000,000 on ALP to win at $1.23.
Must be pretty confident to outlay that sort of money but also obviously keen to get a $230,000 return after 10 days.


Pretty damn confident!
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Re: Federal election 2019—polling.

Postby HBS Guy » 09 May 2019, 13:14

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Re: Federal election 2019—polling.

Postby Sprintcyclist » 09 May 2019, 13:42

HBS Guy wrote:Read around the traps:

Ladbrokes reports that someone in NSW has just place $1,000,000 on ALP to win at $1.23.
Must be pretty confident to outlay that sort of money but also obviously keen to get a $230,000 return after 10 days.


Pretty damn confident!



This sort of bet may be from a professional. They would have done a lot of research.
I know a retired professional gambler. He knows numbers, percentages and odds .
He does not 'take risks'.
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Re: Federal election 2019—polling.

Postby HBS Guy » 09 May 2019, 15:23

No tax due on that $230,000 either—windfall.

Nice to see you back, DRAH.
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Re: Federal election 2019—polling.

Postby pinkeye » 10 May 2019, 22:08

any new polls worth reporting since the great debate HBS Guy.?
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Re: Federal election 2019—polling.

Postby HBS Guy » 10 May 2019, 22:19

Essential next Tue, I guess. Keep your eye on the betting markets is my guess.

Last Newspoll: 51:49 but I doubt it is that narrow, last Essential 52:49 all still in line with 54:46.

Poll Bludger’s “BludgerTrack” 52:48.

At least a million have voted already, any Merde-och foul trick will affect fewer and fewer voters.

Relax Pinky—or offer to volunteer for Labor or a decent independent. No diff to your seat but a few more Senate votes might help.
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Re: Federal election 2019—polling.

Postby HBS Guy » 10 May 2019, 22:31

Keep your eye on here Pinky:

https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/05/10/election-minus-eight-days/

E.g. Labor at 51:49 is a really, unbelievably strong position for Labor, enough to give it 5 seats.
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Re: Federal election 2019—polling.

Postby pinkeye » 10 May 2019, 23:58

hmmm . well my electorate has only been around for a few yrs, and lots of new young bogans have moved in. Prhaps they'll put the finger to Bucholz (LNP) safe... I really hope so...

In any case.. I won't be voting for him. I'm actually re-thinking my vote.. BUT still it looks like the Greens will get it for me.
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Re: Federal election 2019—polling.

Postby HBS Guy » 11 May 2019, 00:04

Greens have never done anything useful.
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Re: Federal election 2019—polling.

Postby pinkeye » 11 May 2019, 00:12

I beg to differ.

You complain about the 2 Party system, and yet you denigrate the Greens, when they represent a viable alternative.
What?
The Demo's got demolished, because they betrayed their constituents by voting with Howard for the GST.

Remember that.? Any minority that sides with Lib/Nat are doomed to be subsumed. :roll :bgrin

You can't have it both ways... I always voted Labor... Except one former green vote. I am considering,, BUT I CAN ASSURE YOU I won't vote LNP and I'll do my best to insure my preferences are not compromised.

Interesting indeed.
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Re: Federal election 2019—polling.

Postby HBS Guy » 11 May 2019, 07:19

The Greens are just another bunch of right wing neoliberals.

They helped destroy the two attempts to price carbon.

They helped sink the Malaysian Solution and so bear some responsibility for Manus and Nauru, despite their posturing about it now.

You are wasting your Senate vote.
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Re: Federal election 2019—polling.

Postby johnsmith » 11 May 2019, 07:27

pinkeye wrote:I beg to differ.


then you are wrong. The greens are as useless as tits on a bull. Plenty of feel good statements, but very little practical solutions. It's their fault Rudds ETS didn't go through? Why? because they're morons.
FD.
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Re: Federal election 2019—polling.

Postby pinkeye » 11 May 2019, 23:10

Like I said I am re-thinking... and may do what I normally do, and vote Labor. There is no information here about the candidates, on local newspapers... except for their party's..... and we have one of everything... :roll
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Re: Federal election 2019—polling.

Postby HBS Guy » 12 May 2019, 04:41

PollBludger:

A new poll records a 3% swing to Labor in the target-rich environment of Queensland, as the weekend papers report contrasting assessments of the state of play.

The Courier-Mail has results from a Queensland-only YouGov Galaxy poll of 848 respondents, conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, which shows the Coalition with a lead in the state of 51-49. This represents a 3% swing to Labor off the 2016 election result, but is an improvement for the Coalition from the 50-50 result at the last such poll in February. On the primary vote, the Coalition are up three to 38%, Labor is down one to 33%, the Greens and One Nation are both up a point to 9%, and the United Australia Party is on an anaemic 4%.


https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/05/11/yougov-galaxy-51-49-federal-coalition-queensland/

848 is not a huge poll, MoE bit bigger than the bigger Newspoll/IPSOS/Essentialetc polls.

Expect a rush of polls this week.

It could be Queensland changes enough seats for Labor to win government.
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Re: Federal election 2019—polling.

Postby HBS Guy » 12 May 2019, 04:51

From comments to the above:

Sportsbet out to $6.00. More money going on Labor.
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Re: Federal election 2019—polling.

Postby pinkeye » 12 May 2019, 05:01

That's good, I suppose. Punters are a hard-bitten lot and follow the money.

It often works, in horse racing.
Politics in Australia exhibits similar characteristics.
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Re: Federal election 2019—polling.

Postby HBS Guy » 12 May 2019, 05:11

I have bet on elections (did good in 2007 mediocre in 2010) but this time I have no money to spare—all goes to Tassie including orders for trees to a Vic and a Tassie nursery, including five perry pears (a Beurre bosc and five Green Horse.)
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