We need political will to combat AGW

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We need political will to combat AGW

Postby HBS Guy » 05 Mar 2018, 22:31

Here is a great article, an absorbing story, on how AGW is destabilising the big icesheets on Greenland and Antarctica:

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/11/15/magazine/the-secrets-in-greenlands-ice-sheets.html

For boneheaded Booby—TWO positive feedbacks on Greenland:

1. The ice gets darker as silt concentrates, also soot from northern hemisphere industry now and in the past.

2. As the ice sheet melts the altitude of the surface gets lower and as it gets lower it gets warmer

This is not some crap from a dubious YouTube. This is an account featuring actual scientists! The reporter also visited the Jacobshavn glacier and took part in one days flight over the icesheets in a converted 1966 military plane fitted out with numerous instruments to measure the ice sheet and glaciers.

We need to act to decrease emissions and to remove CO2 from the atmosphere and we should have been doing this back in the 1970s. Now the task is harder and more urgent.

I urge you to read the long account in the referenced NYT article.

I intend to post information on:

1. The Scientific Method

2. Evidence that CO2 (and H2O and O3 and CH4 and N2O) is a greenhouse gas obtained by scientific study. Note that the molecules ALL contain THREE or more atoms, N2 and O2 that make up the bulk of the atmosphere are not GHGs.

3. Evidence that the Greenhouse Effect actually works including an introduction to black body radiation.

4. Temperature graphs, facts and figures on glacier retreat and ice sheet destabilisation—the globe is heating and ice is melting

Then—well, do something.
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Re: We need political will to combat AGW

Postby pinkeye » 06 Mar 2018, 01:16

yes indeed.
Should at least try a bit harder.
Do we have suicidal megalomaniacs as our leaders.?
Makes me wonder.

Perhaps they don't care about their descendants.?

So totally self-focused they can't see beyond the next election.?

BUT doesn't that describe most politicians you know.?

Bring Back Julia.!!
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Re: We need political will to combat AGW

Postby pinkeye » 06 Mar 2018, 01:24

Seems after about 3 yrs of Antarctic Ice increase.. the trend has been short lived and NOW the Antarctic ice is smaller than ever seen before. ? Is this so Monk? Or the second smallest.?
I read a VERY SHORT ARTICLE on pg 5 of the Courier Mail. :roll . Short on info BUT .. hugely concerning. No-one seems to care. Too confused by all the bullshit spread by those who prefer the status quo.

Seems people will only pay attention when the floods/ fires/ rising sea levels directly affect them. :sad
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Re: We need political will to combat AGW

Postby HBS Guy » 06 Mar 2018, 09:01

Antarctic sea ice is at near record low.

The Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers are accelerating their slide into the Southern Ocean as is the Totten glacier in East Antarctica.

Arctic sea ice is at record low extent and volume. In winter warm air from lower latitudes increasingly invades the Arctic, melting the sea ice.

And some boneheaded boobies think we are in an ice age :rofl :rofl :rofl
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Re: We need political will to combat AGW

Postby HBS Guy » 06 Mar 2018, 15:22

Scientific Method.

Science works by trying to falsify theories. Some scientist proposes a theory and presents evidence he has gathered via experiment. Where does a theory come from?

A scientist working in a field might have observed something, an experiment repeated 2-3 times may return unexpected results or looking at something and some regularity might suggest some underlaying physical/chemical/geologic/meteorological workings. However the data was gathered our scientist needs to formulate some theory, some hypothesis to explain the data and what could be acting to produce that data under the observed circumstances.

The theory should predict something, the underlying mechanism and should give ways to test that prediction. The scientist can work out some tests, do the experiment and if the results are as predicted he can write a paper on it for publication in an appropriate scientific publication: Nature, Geophysical Letters, Proceedings of [whatever] Society. A good publication will have the paper peer reviewed. So, peer review means the theory is proven, right?

Nope—other scientists will repeat the experiments hoping to prove the initial scientist WRONG by falsifying the theory. As attempts to falsify the theory fail the theory gets tentatively accepted. There will still be another theory later that better explains the original observations and the theorised workings behind them.

Now, some say a hypothesis is a theory that has not been tested. I wouldn’t worry too much about that. In statistics if we want to test a theory—whether mean temperatures in the last 30 years are warmer than those of the 60 years preceding the 30 years say—by proposing a null and an alternative hypothesis. The alternative hypothesis is in a form that can be tested, usually that there is no change. If the alternate hypothesis is rejected—the last 30 years are warmer—the null hypothesis is accepted.

There is also some confusion between theories and Laws of science.

A scientific Law—Newton’s Laws of Motion say—is not a theory. A Law merely summarises observations. Thus studies of the motions of the planets led Kepler to propose some laws describing the paths of the planets. Newton reformulated the laws into a much more useful form. Force = mass times acceleration allows the path of a rocket or an artillery shell to be calculated. Boyle’s Law just states that the volume and pressure of a fixed mass of a gas are inversely related. Newton does not theorise about why gravitational acceleration exists, he just describes it. An even greater genius, Albert Einstein, in his Special and General Theories (theories, not, not Laws) formulated how gravity works.

There are frauds in science, unfortunately. One fertile field for scientists, typically ones who retired with what they considered was inadequate assets, was the relationship between cigarette smoking and lung cancer. Unfortunately many retired doctors and scientists prostituted themselves in denying any such link “smoking is good for you!” etc.

Similar techniques are now being applied to deny Anthropogenic Global Warming. I am not referring to charlatans like Booby’s hero David Dubyne, he is just a charlatan, a snake oil salesman, who saw an opportunity to make some money preaching bullshit about a new ice age. It is clear he knows no science, no meteorology anyway. Lots of people ask him what the Grand Solar Maximum will mean for their area. He never answers, he obviously doesn’t know. He just produces videos about any cold snaps going around, even big hail tho hail has no relationship to local temperatures (look up hail in wiki and see how it is formed.) When there are no cold snaps? Ahahahaha all sorts of crap, the color of aurora, a lake in Melbourne turning pink is a sign of the ice age doncha know :rofl

No, just a cheap opportunist is Dubyne. But there ARE retired scientists (and mathematicians and engineers etc) with dubious links to climatology/meteorology happy to take money to preach anti–AGW pseudoscience. Always in science tho experimental verification weeds out bad science, fraud and so on. But anti–AGW pseudoscience is not aimed at scientists, it is aimed at policy makers, governments. It gets morons like Trumpy elected to carry out the fossil fuel industry’s wishes. Not even Trumpy is having much luck tho: the “dismal science” of economics has made renewable energy cheaper than fossil fuels. Even the USA can be left behind if it panders too much to fossil fuel interests.
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Re: We need political will to combat AGW

Postby HBS Guy » 06 Mar 2018, 15:56

The science of Anthropogenic Warming

Will follow.

I will list the main greenhouse gas molecules in no particular order:

Carbon dioxide, CO2, one carbon two oxygen atoms

Methane, CH4, one carbon, four hydrogen atoms

Nitrous oxide, N2O, two nitrogen atoms, one oxygen atom

Water (vapor,) two hydrogen atoms, one oxygen atom

Ozone, O3, three oxygen atoms.

Chlorofluorocarbons, larger molecules, man made, fortunately no longer being used unfortunately VERY long lived.

Non–greenhouse gases in the atmosphere

Nitrogen, N2, two nitrogen atoms
Oxygen, O2, two oxygen atoms
Noble gases, Argon and the like, 1 atom per “molecule”

So, go ahead and deduce something from that :roll :bgrin
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Re: We need political will to combat AGW

Postby Squire » 06 Mar 2018, 18:21

The real problem is that the most severe consequences of global warming are beyond the lifetimes of politicians and skeptics so they don't really care about the consequences.

Many skeptics are defending the argument that there is no AGW in order to defend their consciences from taking responsibility for the consequences of AGW. Their defenses will get stronger as the evidence of AGW builds.
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Re: We need political will to combat AGW

Postby HBS Guy » 06 Mar 2018, 18:34

Squire wrote:The real problem is that the most severe consequences of global warming are beyond the lifetimes of politicians and skeptics so they don't really care about the consequences.

Many skeptics are defending the argument that there is no AGW in order to defend their consciences from taking responsibility for the consequences of AGW. Their defenses will get stronger as the evidence of AGW builds.


And plenty of people will be happy to prostitute themselves for $$$ in their retirement. Bob Carter, Ian Plimer (clearly didn’t write the book that carries his name) and NASA engineer Casey, the pin up boy of the Dubyne dupes.
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Re: We need political will to combat AGW

Postby pinkeye » 07 Mar 2018, 00:36

Squire wrote:The real problem is that the most severe consequences of global warming are beyond the lifetimes of politicians and skeptics so they don't really care about the consequences.

Many skeptics are defending the argument that there is no AGW in order to defend their consciences from taking responsibility for the consequences of AGW. Their defenses will get stronger as the evidence of AGW builds.



Have to say footage of the coast of the US being hit by huge waves was amazingly scary. I have seen something similar in the past I do admit, BUT that was an aberration. This is reality TODAY. Those houses were being hit by waves rolling onshore, and STILL taller than those two and three story homes, Jeez I bet the owners are not feeling very happy.
I suspect the consequences are BITING HOME much quicker than expected. AND.. I suspect... this is an exponential expansion.

Politicians ?? It is TOO LATE people.

Political Will? Well apart from being virtually invisible to date .. it IS too late.!!
Politicians are NOT magicians. There IS NO MAGIC WAND to wave and make this go away. Politicians are as powerless as the rest of us now. In reality, they are just fighting out the final years of our civilisation, so they can be as comfortable as possible.

Actually, ?? it doesn't matter what is done now. The genie is out of the bottle. The horse has bolted.

Where are the aliens, who will come and save the world.!??!!
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Re: We need political will to combat AGW

Postby HBS Guy » 07 Mar 2018, 02:57

GHG molecules all have three or more atoms, non–GHG molecules have two or one (a one–atom molecule is not a molecule at all, of course.)

That suggests: dipoles, a link between two molecules with opposite charge at either end, more or fewer electrons (putting it simplistically.)

Water vapor is the most important GHG and it blocks all but a few frequencies in the infrared spectrum. CO2 blocks most of the remaining frequencies. Water vapor is very variable: it can condense into droplets then fall out of the atmosphere as rain, hail or snow. Hence CO2, a non–condensing (at Earth atmospheric conditions) GHG gets the attention of scientists. As CO2 warms the planet more water vapor stays in the atmosphere.

Clouds complicate things. Thunderstorm clouds look dark and grey from underneath but pure white from above. So the tops of clouds reflect sunlight back into space. However, clouds also trap heat on the surface. For example, you only get frosts on clear nights.

There is absolutely no doubt that greenhouse gases exist: experiments in laboratories prove that CO2 and methane etc blocks long wave electromagnetic radiation or infrared.

Why is this important? It has to do with black body radiation.

A blackbody is a body, like the Earth, that emits no radiation in the wavelengths that make up visible light, it looks black. Perfect black bodies are not found in nature and Earth is not a perfect black body: its oceans can store vast amounts of heat and its atmosphere can block certain long wavelengths.

A black body that receives radiation, like the earth does from the sun, will emit infrared radiation and in so doing cools down. Obviously then that GHGs that block infrared cause the cooling, the shedding of the energy received from the sun, to be less perfect so as the sun heats the planet some of that warmth is retained by the action of GHGs and the planet gets warmer.

So imagine a GHG in the atmosphere. One of its dipoles, the link between two atoms in the molecule, is the frequency of a line in the IR spectrum. It gets hit by a photon, or ray if you like, of IR. The photon is absorbed and the atom gets more energetic by the amount of energy in the photon. The atom spins faster. A nano or microsecond later the photon moves to another dipole, another link (remember GHGs have at least 3 atoms, two dipoles) between atoms in the molecule and exits the GHG molecule. This molecule could be “facing” down as likely as up and so the photon is redirected back to the lower atmosphere and surface.

There the photon might energise a molecule that collides with another molecule and the photon can no longer be emitted because its energy is shared, dissipated among other atoms. The world just warmed a tad.
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Re: We need political will to combat AGW

Postby pinkeye » 07 Mar 2018, 02:59

HBS Guy wrote:GHG molecules all have three or more atoms, non–GHG molecules have two or one (a one–atom molecule is not a molecule at all, of course.)

That suggests: dipoles, a link between two molecules with opposite charge at either end, more or fewer electrons (putting it simplistically.)

Water vapor is the most important GHG and it blocks all but a few frequencies in the infrared spectrum. CO2 blocks most of the remaining frequencies. Water vapor is very variable: it can condense into droplets then fall out of the atmosphere as rain, hail or snow. Hence CO2, a non–condensing (at Earth atmospheric conditions) GHG gets the attention of scientists. As CO2 warms the planet more water vapor stays in the atmosphere.

Clouds complicate things. Thunderstorm clouds look dark and grey from underneath but pure white from above. So the tops of clouds reflect sunlight back into space. However, clouds also trap heat on the surface. For example, you only get frosts on clear nights.

There is absolutely no doubt that greenhouse gases exist: experiments in laboratories prove that CO2 and methane etc blocks long wave electromagnetic radiation or infrared.

Why is this important? It has to do with black body radiation.

A blackbody is a body, like the Earth, that emits no radiation in the wavelengths that make up visible light, it looks black. Perfect black bodies are not found in nature and Earth is not a perfect black body: its oceans can store vast amounts of heat and its atmosphere can block certain long wavelengths.

A black body that receives radiation, like the earth does from the sun, will emit infrared radiation and in so doing cools down. Obviously then that GHGs that block infrared cause the cooling, the shedding of the energy received from the sun, to be less perfect so as the sun heats the planet some of that warmth is retained by the action of GHGs and the planet gets warmer.

So imagine a GHG in the atmosphere. One of its dipoles, the link between two atoms in the molecule, is the frequency of a line in the IR spectrum. It gets hit by a photon, or ray if you like, of IR. The photon is absorbed and the atom gets more energetic by the amount of energy in the photon. The atom spins faster. A nano or microsecond later the photon moves to another dipole, another link (remember GHGs have at least 3 atoms, two dipoles) between atoms in the molecule and exits the GHG molecule. This molecule could be “facing” down as likely as up and so the photon is redirected back to the lower atmosphere and surface.

There the photon might energise a molecule that collides with another molecule and the photon can no longer be emitted because its energy is shared, dissipated among other atoms. The world just warmed a tad.




Whatever.
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Re: We need political will to combat AGW

Postby HBS Guy » 07 Mar 2018, 04:40

It is the science of AGW.

Two studies show the Greenhouse Effect is real—stay tuned.

Isotope studies show WE put the extra CO2 in the atmosphere, now positive feedback is releasing methane and nitrous oxide, much stronger greenhouse gases than CO2.

Sea level rise due melting of land based ice sheets and thermal expansion—especially off the east coast of the US which is why so much flooding took place: high tides and storm surges all starting a bit higher due to sea level rise.
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Re: We need political will to combat AGW

Postby MilesAway » 08 Mar 2018, 18:11

pinkeye wrote:
HBS Guy wrote:GHG molecules all have three or more atoms, non–GHG molecules have two or one (a one–atom molecule is not a molecule at all, of course.)

That suggests: dipoles, a link between two molecules with opposite charge at either end, more or fewer electrons (putting it simplistically.)

Water vapor is the most important GHG and it blocks all but a few frequencies in the infrared spectrum. CO2 blocks most of the remaining frequencies. Water vapor is very variable: it can condense into droplets then fall out of the atmosphere as rain, hail or snow. Hence CO2, a non–condensing (at Earth atmospheric conditions) GHG gets the attention of scientists. As CO2 warms the planet more water vapor stays in the atmosphere.

Clouds complicate things. Thunderstorm clouds look dark and grey from underneath but pure white from above. So the tops of clouds reflect sunlight back into space. However, clouds also trap heat on the surface. For example, you only get frosts on clear nights.

There is absolutely no doubt that greenhouse gases exist: experiments in laboratories prove that CO2 and methane etc blocks long wave electromagnetic radiation or infrared.

Why is this important? It has to do with black body radiation.

A blackbody is a body, like the Earth, that emits no radiation in the wavelengths that make up visible light, it looks black. Perfect black bodies are not found in nature and Earth is not a perfect black body: its oceans can store vast amounts of heat and its atmosphere can block certain long wavelengths.

A black body that receives radiation, like the earth does from the sun, will emit infrared radiation and in so doing cools down. Obviously then that GHGs that block infrared cause the cooling, the shedding of the energy received from the sun, to be less perfect so as the sun heats the planet some of that warmth is retained by the action of GHGs and the planet gets warmer.

So imagine a GHG in the atmosphere. One of its dipoles, the link between two atoms in the molecule, is the frequency of a line in the IR spectrum. It gets hit by a photon, or ray if you like, of IR. The photon is absorbed and the atom gets more energetic by the amount of energy in the photon. The atom spins faster. A nano or microsecond later the photon moves to another dipole, another link (remember GHGs have at least 3 atoms, two dipoles) between atoms in the molecule and exits the GHG molecule. This molecule could be “facing” down as likely as up and so the photon is redirected back to the lower atmosphere and surface.

There the photon might energise a molecule that collides with another molecule and the photon can no longer be emitted because its energy is shared, dissipated among other atoms. The world just warmed a tad.




Whatever.

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Re: We need political will to combat AGW

Postby HBS Guy » 08 Mar 2018, 18:46

Hmmmm, I need to finish the Science of AGW: spectroscopic proof of the Greenhouse Effect and isotopic analysis of the extra CO2 in the atmosphere—that will prove WE put all that extra CO2 in the air.
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Re: We need political will to combat AGW

Postby Gordy » 08 Mar 2018, 19:56

The best way to shift away from FF is to stop banging on about AGW and move to a more tangible argument like pollution. We can all see it and smell it and we know it's real.

We all hate Al Gore because he's full of crap and has politicized the whole issue. Just show people pictures of Delhi, enuf said.
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Re: We need political will to combat AGW

Postby HBS Guy » 08 Mar 2018, 20:26

Well, that is one fallback argument of those who see AGW happening (it is easier and easier to see:)

Imagine if we got rid of all pollution, had clear skies, cheaper power (SA has the cheapest power of the nation and power costs are coming down as more RE investments are made)—and AGW didn’t exist? Would it not be worth cleaning the world up and reducing power costs?

Regional airlines, 500 mile flights, can now use electric planes—battery power density keeps on increasing.

Imagine—a nuclear power plant way away from cities/faults—powering trolley buses in major metropolises, smooooth ride, no particulate diesel emissions. Can also power desal plants that the south of the country will need more and more of as the southern half of the country warms and dries out.

Dreadful. Less noise, less pollution, cities remain habitable.

But AGW is accelerating! So is sea level rise. Arctic sea ice does not have much longer to go.

Extreme weather events: hot weather events, hurricanes, floods from excessive rainfall, sea level rise etc etc starting to accelerate and get worse.
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Re: We need political will to combat AGW

Postby Gordy » 08 Mar 2018, 20:32

HBS Guy wrote:Well, that is one fallback argument of those who see AGW happening (it is easier and easier to see:)

Imagine if we got rid of all pollution, had clear skies, cheaper power (SA has the cheapest power of the nation and power costs are coming down as more RE investments are made)—and AGW didn’t exist? Would it not be worth cleaning the world up and reducing power costs?

Regional airlines, 500 mile flights, can now use electric planes—battery power density keeps on increasing.

Imagine—a nuclear power plant way away from cities/faults—powering trolley buses in major metropolises, smooooth ride, no particulate diesel emissions. Can also power desal plants that the south of the country will need more and more of as the southern half of the country warms and dries out.

Dreadful. Less noise, less pollution, cities remain habitable.

But AGW is accelerating! So is sea level rise. Arctic sea ice does not have much longer to go.

Extreme weather events: hot weather events, hurricanes, floods from excessive rainfall, sea level rise etc etc starting to accelerate and get worse.


We should have gone 80% nuke 20 years ago.
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Re: We need political will to combat AGW

Postby johnsmith » 08 Mar 2018, 20:35

Gordy wrote:
We should have gone 80% nuke 20 years ago.


short term fix, long term problems.
FD.
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Re: We need political will to combat AGW

Postby Gordy » 08 Mar 2018, 20:37

johnsmith wrote:
Gordy wrote:
We should have gone 80% nuke 20 years ago.


short term fix, long term problems.


Well, hysterical opposition to nukes will keep coal in business for probably another 50 years.
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Re: We need political will to combat AGW

Postby johnsmith » 08 Mar 2018, 20:40

Gordy wrote:
johnsmith wrote:
Gordy wrote:
We should have gone 80% nuke 20 years ago.


short term fix, long term problems.


Well, hysterical opposition to nukes will keep coal in business for probably another 50 years.


and then coal will run out and an alternative to coal will be found.

In my opinion nukes present as much danger to our future as does global warming ... at least with warming we die, not the planet.
FD.
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Re: We need political will to combat AGW

Postby Gordy » 08 Mar 2018, 20:55

johnsmith wrote:
Gordy wrote:
johnsmith wrote:
Gordy wrote:
We should have gone 80% nuke 20 years ago.


short term fix, long term problems.


Well, hysterical opposition to nukes will keep coal in business for probably another 50 years.


and then coal will run out and an alternative to coal will be found.

In my opinion nukes present as much danger to our future as does global warming ... at least with warming we die, not the planet.


There ya go, hysteria :)
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Re: We need political will to combat AGW

Postby HBS Guy » 08 Mar 2018, 21:57

I have been calling for nuclear power here.

Somewhere tectonicallt stable. Somewhere out of reach of tsunamis. Somewhere within 20Km of Pt Augusta will do and all the infrastructure is there: high voltage power lines, railway lines, ports and the industrial part of the state.

Kangaroo Is, 500Km from Pt Augusta—should be investing in windpower, ocean based for more and more constant wind.

All that can be donee.

Idiot turdfull wanting Liddle kept going—it constantly breaksdown now! Often only 1 turbine is actually working. Nonsense!

I think there will be a major flood on the US east coast and THEN AGW will be treated seriously by policy makers. Trumpy is going to be have to be shoved out the way somehow!
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Re: We need political will to combat AGW

Postby johnsmith » 08 Mar 2018, 22:06

Gordy wrote:
johnsmith wrote:
Gordy wrote:
johnsmith wrote:
Gordy wrote:
We should have gone 80% nuke 20 years ago.


short term fix, long term problems.


Well, hysterical opposition to nukes will keep coal in business for probably another 50 years.


and then coal will run out and an alternative to coal will be found.

In my opinion nukes present as much danger to our future as does global warming ... at least with warming we die, not the planet.


There ya go, hysteria :)



pointing out the obvious isn't hysteria you fool... you'll have to do better than just ignoring opposing views and labelling them as hysteria
FD.
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Re: We need political will to combat AGW

Postby pinkeye » 08 Mar 2018, 22:27

johnsmith wrote:
Gordy wrote:
johnsmith wrote:
Gordy wrote:
We should have gone 80% nuke 20 years ago.


short term fix, long term problems.


Well, hysterical opposition to nukes will keep coal in business for probably another 50 years.


and then coal will run out and an alternative to coal will be found.

In my opinion nukes present as much danger to our future as does global warming ... at least with warming we die, not the planet.

:thumb
Yes the palnet although grossly harmed by our activities, will recover over time More time than WE HAVE.
Enjoy it while you can kids..the humans alive today will see a HUGE change.
We, are seeing the start only. Our children will have to survive it, if they can.
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