NBN state of play or why is Turncoat so defensive?

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NBN state of play or why is Turncoat so defensive?

Postby HBS Guy » 05 May 2015, 19:02

This is a post from my FaceBook page Friends of the NBN and I cannot be stuffed reformatting it:


A great Business Spectator column:
_________
Communications Minister Malcolm Turnbull has been working assiduously to keep a lid on the simmering disquiet about the National Broadband Network (NBN). No news is good news, as far as Turnbull is concerned, but it would be too early for him to claim that he has completely nullified all opposition to the Coalition’s multi-technology mix (MTM) NBN. . . .

___ Some, like the people reading, Liking and posting here and similar Facebook pages, Twitter, discussion boards and the like have kept up a campaign of discrediting the MTM and continuing to call for FTTH ___

*** Telstra clears the air ***

The government’s attempts to silence the Senate Select Committee on the National Broadband Network have been unsuccessful and recent committee sittings have clearly demonstrated why this committee is doing vital work.

On April 18 The Australian reported that Telstra corporate affairs group executive Tony Warren told the committee “we don’t believe the [NSW FTTN] trial represents real-world experience, it was operating over spare copper pairs” and that the trial was “not a proper commercial service” with only a “small number of people involved”.

___ I guess Telstra can see the shambles is going to lose the next election in a landslide and is covering its corporate arse ___

___ I will read the Senate committee minutes and post about them, probably on my discussion board which has more options for layout etc. FaceBook is crap typographically. ___

On April 20 Fairfax reported Turnbull’s defence of “his spruiking” when he said, "It's a very useful, real technology trial, but I might say truthfully it didn't tell any of the engineers anything they didn't know. This technology is being used at millions of addresses around the world and it performs pretty much the same in Umina as it does everywhere else." The problem that Turnbull has is that countries with FTTN are now turning to alternative technologies because FTTN has not performed anywhere near expectations due to problems with the legacy copper and the range of distances between nodes and premises.

___ Yes, NZ, the UK and AT&T are all moving to FTTH despite “the expense.” Germany will likely stay with FTTN the longest—it would have the best copper meticulously maintained and of adequate diameter copper to be low impedance wiring, Telstra copper is opposite to all that, badly maintained and too thin. ___

The most significant blooper found in the reviews and audits was the Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) use of flawed figures predicting future broadband demand. The entry of Netflix into the Australian market has led to broadband demand increasing significantly and this trend is unlikely to slow. What this means is that the CBA’s underlying technology related assumptions are on the cusp of being proven to be flawed due to actual rather than predicted figures.

Let us remind ourselves of some of the ridiculous assumptions underpinning the CBA. By 2023 only the “top 1 per cent of households have demand of 45 Mbps or more” and “the figures of 15 Mbps and 43 Mbps for median and top 5 per cent of demand may seem low, particularly by comparison to the results of some other research in this area. However, the most common type of household comprises just two people. Even if those two are each watching their own HDTV stream, each surfing the web and each having a video call all simultaneously, then [in part thanks to the impact of improving video compression] the total bandwidth [in 2023] for this somewhat extreme use case for that household is just over 14 Mbps.“

Having seen his reviews and audit unravel in a remarkably short period of time, Turnbull doesn’t appear to know when caution is necessary and in his speech at the CommsDay Summit 2015 he stated that “the link between the volume of data downloaded in Australia and line speeds required is generally very poorly understood and many people still mistakenly think that as data volumes increase last mile line speeds will need to increase in a linear fashion. They don't and they won't.”

Turnbull went on to argue that “a 50 megabits per second download connection would quite clearly permit two simultaneous [ultra-high definition] UHD streams with overhead to spare” based on UHD requiring between 15-25 Mbps even though Netflix recommends 25 Mbps for a single UHD stream.

Video compression standards include profiles which are a definition of the visual quality for a particuglar bit rate. What this means is UHD at 15 Mbps will not have the same visual quality as UHD at 25 Mbps. For Australians to have UHD at a reasonable visual quality as recommended by Netflix there should be a reliable 25 Mbps bit rate per UHD stream.

___ And 4K and 8K TV is still to impact download volumes and bandwidth. In posts below this one you will see charts from the original NBN business case, the mix of speeds taken up is quite in accord with that forecast in the original business case. ___

What Turnbull is attempting to do is to obfuscate the effect that Netflix is having on broadband usage by laying blame for the poor customer experience that has occurred right around Australia solely at the feet of backhaul and retail service providers and is also unwittingly providing justification to the need in 2015 for download speeds and capacity far in advance of what is predicted in the CBA for 2023.

___ amazing how streaming TV adds to the load the network has to carry, I mean, who’s have guessed? ___

According to Turnbull, “one of the consequences of the NBN is going to be to demonstrate to consumers that iron-clad guarantees about performance cannot be made on ANY access technology, given the way factors such as CVC pricing and backhaul contention choices play into the end user experience. That may burst the bubble of those who claim FTTP solves such problems, but it is reality.”

It is unclear why Turnbull made this point because it is wrong and it is important that the telecommunications industry steps back from supporting such a wild unjustified claim. Performance guarantees are provided by telcos to customers through service level agreements every day and if you ask any telco they’re much happier offering service level agreements when the access technology is fibre. And Netflix has been negotiating minimum levels of performance for connections to customers to ensure there is a reasonable customer experience. No one wants nor benefits from customer complaints.

___ I guess Turncoat, who seems to have aged 10 years in the last 24 months, is desperately trying to keep selling the MTM crap. With any luck the (real) NBN will be a major issue in the DD later this year or the normal election next year (yes folks, monkey could well be clearing the way for a DD election—offer to volunteer to letterbox etc for Labor as the way to get good govt and a good NBN ___

Turnbull’s recent visit to towns in outback Queensland and the increasing local media focus on regions missing from the updated NBN rollout plan, including Parramatta in western Sydney, show that just under the surface there is considerable simmering discontent with the government’s performance.

___ Good! ___

Turnbull’s recent visit to towns in outback Queensland and the increasing local media focus on regions missing from the updated NBN rollout plan, including Parramatta in western Sydney, show that just under the surface there is considerable simmering discontent with the government’s performance.

Turnbull’s every turn in Queensland was met by criticism about the government’s NBN and failure to understand demand for improved broadband, especially to retain the young in a rural environment. Local communities have long argued for fibre to be rolled out to the communities in the Barcoo/Diamantina region and like many other regional and remote communities there is a huge reliance on the two million or so tourists that travel Australia annually and being able to provide fast reliable broadband is a must if you want tourists to come and stick around.

The Parramatta Advertiser has launched a campaign to push for the NBN to be rolled out in Parramatta soon. But don’t expect the local NSW Liberal member Geoff Lee to rock the boat and Federal Labor member Julie Owens has been ignored by the government when she has raised concerns about why NSWs second largest CBD was left off the updated NBN rollout plan.

___ I have repeatedly reported that rural councils and residents are red hot for FTTH. THEY damn well know life is too hard without it, too hard to keep young people in the region, too hard to track produce shipments etc, too hard due the brutal isolation of the bush. ___

And Fairfax has reported that a “survey of 322 businesses in three precints in Southeast Melbourne on behalf of the Frankston, Greater Dandenong and Kingston councils” found that enterprises estimated they would achieve a 14 per cent productivity gain if they had access to high speed broadband and this equates to a current loss to the economy of $8.4 million per annum and up to 1024 jobs in the region.”

___ I reported on this earlier. ___

"[NBN Co's] long term financial forecasts show its revenue streams will rely primarily on the residential market” and “because households are more likely to purchase the highest cost/highest speed service regardless of actual need.”

“There are real economic costs to not rolling out HSB as soon as possible to commercial and industrial precincts [and] high speed broadband is, and will increasingly become, essential to Victoria's and Australia's economic prospects."

___ Yes, of course. My terrier knows this! ___

While the NBN might not be headline grabbing and a matter of daily concern in Question Time as reported by Fairfax on April 24, this government has failed to understand that Australian business and residential consumers want better broadband and people believe that what is on offer will not meet expectations.

___ You DO sort of get the impression that Abbott, Hokey & Turncoat are not very bright, don’t you? heheheheh ___

_________

Links:
BS article: http://www.businessspectator.com.au/art ... discontent

Senate estimates committee: http://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Bus ... nd_Network

The STUPID CBA: http://www.businessspectator.com.au/art ... t-tell-you


Comments between ___ and ___ are mine.
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Re: NBN state of play or why is Turncoat so defensive?

Postby HBS Guy » 05 May 2015, 23:34

From the Senate Estimates committee on NBN:
____________
Mr Heazlett : Then there is the network interface where there are two levels of charges—and I would have to seek information on that. Then there is the CVC, the connectivity virtual circuit, which is charged currently at $20 per megabit of dedicated capacity for a RSP. That is projected to increase, in terms of the revenue model, at a range of about 20 per cent per annum over the period of the 30-year projections based on current increases in data capacity of 50 per cent per annum.
____________

http://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/sea ... %2F0000%22
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Re: NBN state of play or why is Turncoat so defensive?

Postby Lefty » 06 May 2015, 22:04

I remember talking to some experienced tech installers who came to my workplace about the then-proposed NBN - they replied that it was simply the logical next step in communications infrastructure. And how right were they, we can see now that Netflix - which was always going to come regardless of how much the fibs bloviated - which would present no problems with a proper NBN is placing an increasing load on the outdated infrastructure which wasn't originally even designed and put in place with internet usage in mind.

It really is despairing how such an incredibly obviously logical piece of progress became politicized by the fibs for their own gain :sad . Abbot has the mental capacity of a retarded orangutang but surely Turnbull is bright enough to know that a proper broadband network is in our interests?
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Re: NBN state of play or why is Turncoat so defensive?

Postby HBS Guy » 06 May 2015, 22:10

Abbott is a child in an adult’s body. He wants to destroy whatever Julia/Labor created or started and the damage to the country doesn’t enter his calculations IMHO.

The contrast to Menzies who didn’t want the Snowy Mts Scheme but (partly due to pressure from the agrarian socialists) kept on building it—and coasted on that until he retired in ’66.
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Re: NBN state of play or why is Turncoat so defensive?

Postby Lefty » 09 May 2015, 22:44

Just got on, now I'm logging off - think you're right about this Netflix thing, wife used to be able to watch stuff on the iPad without too much trouble. Now if she's watching something, we only have to switch on this computer and tap into any internet usage and streaming video on the iPad crashes instantly. She's three-quarters of the way through I show so I'll let her finish it. Catch you in the morning.
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Re: NBN state of play or why is Turncoat so defensive?

Postby HBS Guy » 09 May 2015, 22:46

Niters Lefty.
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Re: NBN state of play or why is Turncoat so defensive?

Postby HBS Guy » 10 May 2015, 06:56

Send a letter or email to the Flynn MP and Turnbull, something like:

https://www.facebook.com/FriendsOfTheNa ... 3869306502
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Re: NBN state of play or why is Turncoat so defensive?

Postby HBS Guy » 10 May 2015, 20:28

bwahahahaha Turncoat really is sensitive, poor dickhead!

Posted a link to the Business Spectator article on his blog, hours later—that had been deleted :jump But I had also posted a link on Turncoat’s other website and that is still there!
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Re: NBN state of play or why is Turncoat so defensive?

Postby HBS Guy » 11 May 2015, 04:50

I checked just now—gone from his Facebook page too. So much for being open and transparent! Really has to hide what a steaming pile of bullshit his MTM is, as proved by the arrival of Netflix. As I have said all along.
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Re: NBN state of play or why is Turncoat so defensive?

Postby HBS Guy » 04 Jun 2015, 15:42

Two comments to a ZDNet article:

Comment 1:
A new comment on the above article: “WOW, this is amazing. And today on Bribie Island QLD the NBN contractors are pulling in COPPER cable, YES, copper as the network is so bad that the NBN FTTN cabinet needs some old time fashion help to offer better than ADSL1 speeds.”



Comment 2:
“"As we're upgrading the copper to be capable of faster speeds, we have to take steps to ensure the change in frequencies doesn't cause interference between the ADSL and VDSL services," the spokesperson said.”


Comment 1 seems on the money, as evidenced by comment 2.

COPPER cable being pulled? Ye gods and little fishes, are they FUCKING MENTAL? Costs more and does less! If the copper is clapped out FFS pull FIBRE to replace it!

Original ZD Net article:
http://www.zdnet.com/article/nbn-will-o ... ransition/

This is a travesty. This is putting party interests ahead of the nations interests! If they ran fibre in one area where the copper was inadequate they would be pulling fibre all over the place. Maybe it is just Turncoat not wanting to be shown up as an idiot? Surely not, everyone KNOWS he is an idiot, a little lap dog to Abbott.
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Re: NBN state of play or why is Turncoat so defensive?

Postby HBS Guy » 04 Jul 2015, 16:10

Great article in the AFR:

Under the revised agreements with Telstra and Optus, NBN Co will progressively take ownership of the copper and the two Pay TV networks. But NBN Co will not inherit Telstra's existing IT systems – it will need to build its IT systems from the ground up to manage this data, which will be provided to NBN Co incrementally as it takes ownership of these networks.

The risk, cost and complexity that the MTM has introduced for NBN's IT capital costs is significant.

The government's strategic review, which for political reasons provided a pessimistic forecast of project finances, forecast IT capital cost of $1.6 billion. In his speech the Minister revealed the projected IT capex spend for the MTM saying "by the company's forecast, it will [have] spent approximately $2.5 billion on IT capex by the 2021-22 financial year."

That is nearly $1 billion more than the new management team's own forecast for the all-fibre model.


More cost, more risk, much more complexity, thanks monkey & turncoat!

http://www.afr.com/technology/web/nbn/c ... gn?stb=twt
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