Poll Tracking

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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 19 Feb 2018, 06:30

#Newspoll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 47 (-1) ALP 53 (+1) #auspol— GhostWhoVotes (@GhostWhoVotes) February 18, 2018



#Newspoll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 36 (-2) ALP 37 (0) GRN 10 (0) ON 8 (+3) #auspol— GhostWhoVotes (@GhostWhoVotes) February 18, 2018



#Newspoll Preferred PM: Turnbull 40 (-5) Shorten 33 (+2) #auspol— GhostWhoVotes (@GhostWhoVotes) February 18, 2018


That LNP PV is too high, be more like 31 or 32—see what Essential says later this week. This is a poll for the national shit sheet after all.

PPM— a drop of 5%. That is statistically significant.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 25 Feb 2018, 20:40

FWIW

According to the latest exclusive Sky News/ ReachTEL poll, the government is facing a landslide defeat to Labor at the next election, trailing the opposition 46-54 on a two party preferred basis.




[Sky]
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 26 Feb 2018, 22:10

GhostWhoVotes
@GhostWhoVotes
#ReachTEL Poll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 46 (-2) ALP 54 (+2) #auspol

8:05 AM - Feb 25, 2018


GhostWhoVotes
@GhostWhoVotes
#ReachTEL Poll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 33 (-1) ALP 37 (+1) GRN 11 (+1) ON 7 (-1) #auspol

8:42 AM - Feb 25, 2018


GhostWhoVotes
@GhostWhoVotes
#ReachTEL Poll Preferred PM: Turnbull 53 (-1) Shorten 47 (+1) #auspol

8:50 AM - Feb 25, 2018


Changes within MoE. Look at the primary votes and the ALP PV is still slightly below reality, more like 38.

Labor and Shorten need to step up a bit to take votes from Greens and Libs.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 05 Mar 2018, 07:25

Newspoll – 53-47 still, but PPM is narrowing. Turnbull 37 (-3), Shorten 35 (+2).



There likely was an Essential Poll or two I haven’t reported.

There was some movement within MoE in the Jan Newspoll that got the Canberra Press Gallery hacks excited “Turnbull comeback” etc but that disappeared soon enough. Parties are pretty much fixed at 53 point something for labor and 46 point something for Libs. Most polls distribute preferences as per last election but this makes the Libs look a bit better than they are.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 05 Mar 2018, 11:55

Bit more detail on that Newspoll:

Leroy @Leroy_Lynch

#Newspoll TPP ALP 53 (0) L/NP 47 (0)
Primary L/NP 37(+1) ALP 38(+1) GRN 9(-1) ON 7(-1) OTH 9(0)


Again, changes within MoE. ALP is on something above 53, Libs on something below 47 and all understated for the ALP/overstated for the Libs by using preference allocations from the last election despite the swing since then.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 26 Mar 2018, 21:16

Leroy @Leroy_Lynch

#Newspoll TPP ALP 53 (0) L/NP 47 (0)
Primaries ALP 39(+1) L/NP 37(0) ON 7(0) GRN 9(0)
"Malcolm Turnbull loses 29th straight Newspoll as Labor vote climbs"https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll/malcolm-turnbull-loses-29th-straight-newspoll-as-labor-vote-climbs/news-story/ecb44e5793b061aa481db2f195358151 … ($) #auspol
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 27 Mar 2018, 16:48

GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes

#Essential Poll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 38 (+2) ALP 36 (-2) GRN 9 (0) ON 8 (0) SAB 2 (-1) #auspol

11:10 PM - Mar 26, 2018


GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes

#Essential Poll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 48 (+2) ALP 52 (-2) #auspol

11:10 PM - Mar 26, 2018


Just movement within Margin of Error, complicated perhaps by SABest voters returning to the Libs for the moment.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby johnsmith » 27 Mar 2018, 16:59

Lefty wrote:Here's Possum's take

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2009/11/16/essential-report-equal-lowest-ever-for-the-alp/

Like you were saying, it's heavily the grey voters who appear to believe that there are no such thing as refugees (unless they come from Europe) and that people fleeing oppression and other bad circumstances are actually invaders of some sort who we should turn back with naval gunships.

Government debt will continue to be an issue since almost all voters probably believe that federal government can actually become insolvent (it can't unless it voluntarily chooses to) and that taxes will therefore need to be hiked to pay it back. I won't be surprised to see the federal budget reflect this insurmountable public perception.

That was yesterday though, I see your newspoll is for this morning. At this stage, we are still on track to win the next election, likely with an increased margin.

Would be good to see Chris increase his margin - Flynn was a knife edge. I think there was less than a hundred votes in it.



that's from 2009 :WTF
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 27 Mar 2018, 17:10

Then rudd sabotaged the Labor campaign.

Without that little prick constantly whiteanting the Gillard Govt we would still have a Labor govt and the real NBN would be nearly finished. The wifi here is fantastic—as it should be with FTTH underpinning it! (next week, school holidays, the wifi might slow if the other units here are rented out.)
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby johnsmith » 27 Mar 2018, 18:50

HBS Guy wrote:Then rudd sabotaged the Labor campaign.

Without that little prick constantly whiteanting the Gillard Govt we would still have a Labor govt and the real NBN would be nearly finished. The wifi here is fantastic—as it should be with FTTH underpinning it! (next week, school holidays, the wifi might slow if the other units here are rented out.)


It's disgraceful what rudd did.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 14 May 2018, 03:01

Kiera


@KieraGorden 4h4 hours ago More

Oh my goodness. Hey nice one @TurnbullMalcolm. You managed even worse numbers post #Budget2018. Quite a feat.

#Ipsos Poll Federal 2 Party Preferred:
L/NP 46 (-2)
ALP 54 (+2)

#AusPol
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 09 Jun 2018, 22:27

Leroy @Leroy_Lynch

#ReachTEL Poll Seat of #Mayo
TPP: Sharkie CA 58 (+3.0 since election) Downer LIB 42 (-3.0) #auspol

Primary: Sharkie CA 41.1 (+6.2) Downer LIB 35.5 (-2.3) GRN 11.1 (+3.0) ALP 8.2 (-5.3) Other 4.2 (-1.6)
Full results here https://www.pollbludger.net/wp-content/ ... yo-TAX.pdf … via @PollBludger #MayoVotes #auspol

9:25 PM - Jun 7, 2018


Not what Turdfull wants to hear!
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 25 Jun 2018, 08:41

Hmmmm, I have rather let poll tracking slide. However, last weeks IPSOS poll:

Asked today who they trust, 48 per cent of voters nominate Turnbull and just 39 per cent name Shorten.

Labor will be cheered by the poll showing they would demolish the Coalition by 53 to 47 per cent at an election held right now, but the leadership findings add to the doubts about Shorten.


With all the KillBill and, incredibly, Labor Leadershit, crap from the Libs and MSM 39% is not too bad. Shorten could do things to improve his ranking. However, the volume of good policy released, the townhall meetings he holds will keep Labor in front and win them the election.

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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 02 Jul 2018, 09:05

GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes
Following Following @GhostWhoVotes
More

#Newspoll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 49 (+1) ALP 51 (-1) #auspol


No, the polls are not closing up:

Schtang


@Schtang 11h11 hours ago More
Replying to @GhostWhoVotes

Such a bad week for Labor and polls barely shift - 53-47% on Newspoll original pref flow


Primaries:
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 11h11 hours ago More

#Newspoll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 39 (+1) ALP 37 (-1) GRN 9 (-1) ON 6 (0) #auspol


Newspoll sneakily changed the way preferences are allocated.

Any change under 2.6% is just sampling error, the luck of the draw when selecting a sample to poll, this time it looks like slightly more Lib-leaning voters got sampled. Small changes need to carry across a series of polls before you pay them any attention. One tiny shift that seems to be true, not sampling related, is decline in the PHONy vote. Mr X too lost support and did not get elected in the SA election.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 02 Jul 2018, 09:25

Bit late but will add now anyway:

GhostWhoVotes


@GhostWhoVotes Jun 24 More

#Ipsos Poll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 35 (-1) ALP 35 (-2) GRN 12 (+1) ON 6 (+1) #auspol



@GhostWhoVotes Jun 24 More

#Ipsos Poll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 47 (+1) ALP 53 (-1) #auspol
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 03 Jul 2018, 07:39

Essential 52:48 to Labor.


on back of 2% drop in Labor Primary Vote.

That is not real and will wash out of Essential over next 2 weeks. Essential seem to have more sampling problems than the other pollsters. Be back to 54:46 inside 2 weeks.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 19 Aug 2018, 23:16

Fairfax-IPSOS poll out

Lib primary collapsed to 33%, 2PP 55:45

As Mr Potato Head prepares to challenge.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 23 Aug 2018, 21:21

Leroy @Leroy_Lynch

#ReachTEL fed poll TPP ALP 53 L/NP 47
Primary LIB 33.3 NAT 2.8 ALP 35.0 GRN 10.8 ON 9.0 Other 9.0 https://www.medianet.com.au/releases/166776/ … PDF of full 22 Aug CFMEU commissioned poll in this link #auspol


Grn and ON seem high to me—ReachTEL definitely biased to Libs (in sampling algorithm) I have found—reliance on reaching people by landline? Going by other polls I reckon Grn 9, ON 7 making Libs more like 34, Lab 38
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby johnsmith » 26 Aug 2018, 23:04

Bam put this up on ozpol

Newspoll: ALP 56 Coalition 44
Today at 10:03pm Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 33 (-4) ALP 41 (+6) GRN 10 (0) ON 7 (-2)
Preferred PM: Morrison 33 (-11 compared to Turnbull) Shorten 39 (+7)

Ouch...
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 28 Aug 2018, 11:42

Essential has the Parties on 55:45 to Labor, nearly as good as OzPol!

ER distributed the some of the 4% Lib PV loss to Nick Xenophon, ON and Others.

Libs seen as Out of Touch and divided, will do anything to get votes etc by 70%
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby johnsmith » 28 Aug 2018, 12:02

HBS Guy wrote:Essential has the Parties on 55:45 to Labor, nearly as good as OzPol!

ER distributed the some of the 4% Lib PV loss to Nick Xenophon, ON and Others.

Libs seen as Out of Touch and divided, will do anything to get votes etc by 70%


libs are gone. There is almost no way they will recover from this
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 28 Aug 2018, 12:26

They can’t do a Budget before the next election, that will hurt them!
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 29 Aug 2018, 07:33

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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 10 Sep 2018, 12:32

Sunday’s Newspoll, the second since he took power, confirmed the horror numbers of the first. The poll again put Labor, on a two-party basis, at 56 per cent to the Coalition’s 44 per cent.

This meant the government could expect to lose 21 seats.


https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2018/09/09/scott-morrison-first-question-time/

:oops
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 12 Sep 2018, 20:29

GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes

#Essential Poll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 46 (+1) ALP 54 (-1) #auspol

8:33 PM - Sep 10, 2018
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