Poll Tracking

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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 27 Oct 2015, 19:18

That is probably better done once he implements something poisonously neocon. They showed Mal up as a hypocrite, Morriscum as an idiot with no idea about his portfolio and showed Porter as having no idea at all.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 17 Nov 2015, 04:48

Latest IPSOS poll 56:44 to the Libs.

People say they support an increase in the GST if there is compensation for those on lower incomes. Of course, there won’t be.

Mal is having a dream run in the polls but he hasn’t actually done anything yet. Some of the increase will be people supporting the incumbent government at time of stress like the Paris atrocity.

Mal will have to decide to go for an early election soon or they hand down another Budget that will be as poorly received as the last two.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 01 Feb 2016, 06:19

Preliminary and not official:

Newspoll:

#Newspoll TPP L/NP 53 (0) ALP 47 (0) Primary LNP 46(+1) ALP 34(+1) Greens 11(-1) Other 9(-1) Pref PM Turnbull 59(-1) Shorten 20(+6) #auspol


So poll static for now,
Turnbull losing approval, Shorten gaining it.

As the Budget nears I think the polls will move more against the Libs—people still in holiday mode.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 01 Feb 2016, 06:33

James O'Doherty @jmodoh
#Newspoll Support for 15% GST (with tax cuts and compensation) - Oppose 54%, Support 37%, undecided 9% @SkyNewsAust

10:05 PM - 31 Jan 2016 · Braddon, Canberra, Australia


So as they proceed they will lose support.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 09 Feb 2016, 20:49

Both Morgan and Essential show a softening of Lib support. I expect that to accelerate over the next couple of months.

The sugar rush of polls for Turncoat is over. He should have called an early election late last year. Would have got a big swing and increased his authority. Now I do believe the ALP has an excellent chance of winning the next election. Lot of things to play out but the economic situation is not looking good and something more than “agility and innovation” repeated 20 times a day is needed.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 12 Feb 2016, 18:22

Reachtell continues to show the softening trend:

GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes
#ReachTEL Poll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 54 (-1) ALP 46 (+1) #auspol

6:01 PM - 12 Feb 2016


By ringing only landlines REACHtell has trouble ringing young people, who use mostly mobile phone, at home, so a heavy bias to the Libs there. But the trend even there is softening of Lib support.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 13 Feb 2016, 07:33

Its not just Lib numbers that are softening!

GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes
#ReachTEL Poll Turnbull: Approve 39.2 (-14.4) Disapprove 23.9 (+11.4) #auspol

6:46 PM - 12 Feb 2016


That’s quite a smashing Turnbull’s taking there. Deservedly so, it is a miserable shambles, an excuse of a government we have. Still persisting with FTTN/HFC rubbish despite widespread criticism from those on the NBN, they would clearly love to raise/broaden the GST, they are going to abandon Gonski and the economy is still slowing and unemployment climbing.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 14 Feb 2016, 21:54

Longy is wearing the brown underpants this week:

http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/fairfaxipsos-poll-voters-cool-on-malcolm-turnbull-as-coalition-support-drops-below-2013-election-levels-20160214-gmtnd1.html

Opinion Feb 14 2016 at 7:00 PM Updated 20 mins ago
Fairfax Ipsos poll: Bill Shorten deserves a crack
by Phillip Coorey

Tuesday last week marked one year since Tony Abbott survived the first leadership spill, if only because no one chose to run against him.

At the time, Labor’s lead in the polls was pretty identical to the lead the Coalition holds today under Malcolm Turnbull, but Bill Shorten was way ahead of Abbott as preferred prime minister.

AFR Poll of Polls http://www.afr.com/data/polling.aspx?ty ... sions=wide
Fairfax-Ipsos poll: voters cool on Malcolm Turnbull as Coalition support drops below 2013 election levels
February 14, 2016 – 7:10PM
Mark Kenny
Chief political correspondent

A summer marred by ministerial crises and the prospect of a higher GST has taken the shine off the Turnbull government, sending the Coalition’s share of the vote below that achieved by Tony Abbott at the 2013 election.

A four point two-party preferred slump to 52-48 still has the government winning but is set to dispel any lingering early election barracking from within the government. Just one in five voters (22 per cent) would look favourably on Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull running to the polls before his full term is served. Mr Turnbull has told his party to be on guard for a snap poll should key legislation be blocked in the Senate.


http://www.afr.com/news/politics/fairfax-ipsos-poll-bill-shorten-deserves-a-crack-20160214-gmts7f

Opinion Feb 14 2016 at 7:00 PM Updated 20 mins ago
Fairfax Ipsos poll: Bill Shorten deserves a crack
by Phillip Coorey

Tuesday last week marked one year since Tony Abbott survived the first leadership spill, if only because no one chose to run against him.

At the time, Labor’s lead in the polls was pretty identical to the lead the Coalition holds today under Malcolm Turnbull, but Bill Shorten was way ahead of Abbott as preferred prime minister.


AFR Poll of Polls http://www.afr.com/data/polling.aspx?type=pops&dimensions=wide
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 21 Feb 2016, 22:00

Oh dear, Longy will be apoplectic :bgrin :bgrin :bgrin

From PollBludger:


Newspoll drops a bombshell with a poll showing Labor drawing level with the Coalition on two-party preferred.

James J reveals the following results in comments:

50-50 2PP

Coalition 43, Labor 35, Greens 12

Turnbull: Satisfied 48, Dissatisfied 38
Shorten: Satisfied 28, Dissatisfied 57

Better PM Turnbull 55, Shorten 21

1807 sample, 18-21 Feb


http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2016/02/21/newspoll-50-50-11/

Full table: http://resources.news.com.au/files/2016/02/21/1227757/112050-newspoll-for-february-22.pdf

Mari R ‏@randlight 5m5 minutes ago
Newspoll 1807 voters found 47 per cent in favour of Labor’s negative-gearing plan, with 31 per cent opposed and 22 per cent undecided.


I think Shorten has released as much policy as Hewson.

Fulvio Sammut
Posted Sunday, February 21, 2016 at 10:37 pm | PERMALINK
Based on preference flows from the last election, not expressed preferences.

Given the overblown Coalition vote at the last election, the result is more probably 50.01 – 49.99 in Labor’s favour.


:oops NOBODY tell Longy. bwahahahahahahaha
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 21 Feb 2016, 22:41

Another interesting poll:

GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes Feb 16

#Essential Poll Outsourcing administration of Medicare to private sector: Approve 17 Disapprove 64 #auspol


(pollbludger)

Daily Toilet joining in. No one loves Malcolm, awwwww.

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/newspoll-dramatic-fall-in-coalition-support-malcolm-turnbulls-rapid-fall-from-poll-favourite/news-story/219c9610c30089b301f673650c4d2ea1
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 22 Feb 2016, 17:25

Morgan steady 52.5:47.5 to Lib.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 01 Mar 2016, 15:01

Essential joins Newspoll in showing the parties at 50:50 TPP, Labor up 3% on 38%, LNP down 1% to 40%.

Next weeks essential be real interesting!
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 08 Mar 2016, 09:26

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll/newspoll-malcolm-turnbulls-satisfaction-rating-on-the-slide/news-story/40a1a79bf00c8c64e23733c4ea099071

Newspoll: Malcolm Turnbull’s satisfaction rating on the slide
The Australian March 7, 2016 10:00PM
Phillip Hudson Bureau Chief Canberra

Voter confidence in Malcolm Turnbull’s performance has ­tumbled to a five-month low and ­dissatisfaction with the Prime Minister has reached the highest level since he seized the leadership from Tony Abbott in ­September.

The latest Newspoll, taken exclusively for The Australian, also shows that despite stronger than expected economic growth figures last week and the release of its defence white paper, the ­Coalition has failed to lift its standing, remaining deadlocked with Labor at 50-50 in two-party terms.

Bill Shorten has posted the third consecutive rise in his stocks, lifting satisfaction with his performance to a level not seen since Mr Abbott was prime minister, although Mr Turnbull still remains overwhelmingly the preferred prime minister.


That is the second or third 50:50 poll.

NewsPoll & IPSOS always show unrealistically high support for the Greens.

Now some more policy Labor, throw the Coalition into more confusion and to take the lead.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 10 Mar 2016, 09:39

The bottom falls out from Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings, early federal election speculation mounts, early Queensland state election speculation sprouts, and preselections abound across the land.

The Coalition’s downward odyssey in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate enters its sixth week, although the movement on voting intention is slight this time, since all three pollsters this week (Newspoll, Roy Morgan and Essential) essentially repeated the results of their previous polls. Nonetheless, the 0.2% shift has been enough to bag Labor gains on the seat projection in New South Wales and Queensland. There is even more encouragement for Labor from the leadership ratings, on which Malcolm Turnbull is tanking rapidly, albeit that his head remains above the waterline in positive net approval. Bill Shorten’s trendlines are pointing northward, although he still has a very long way to go. Kevin Bonham had the following to say about the Newspoll leadership ratings, a day before they were corroborated by Essential Research:

Turnbull is still far more popular than Bill Shorten, but he’s dropped 35 points in the four polls taken since last November. This loss of 35 points in three and a half months is exceeded only by Paul Keating in 1993 (43 points in just over three months), John Howard in 1996 (36 points in six weeks) and Howard again in 2001 (38 points in six weeks). The 1996 Howard example comes with a big asterisk too, because Howard was falling from the career-high +53 netsat he had jumped 24 points to reach in the immediate aftermath of the Port Arthur massacre. It is not at all normal then for a PM to lose this much popularity this fast, but then again it is not that normal for them to have it in the first place.


http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/ ... um=twitter
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 21 Mar 2016, 18:10

Oh dear oh dear, Morgan now has Labor on 50.5%

Truffles now has negative approvals (NewsPoll)
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby Lefty » 24 Mar 2016, 13:32

Would you have a link to any current info on voting intentions by income group? I see that Labor has pretty much got the young, rusted on fib voters are concentrated toward rich old people - but knowing intentions by income group would be interesting - I can't seem to find such info.

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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 24 Mar 2016, 14:00

I don’t know who does that, will be a commissioned survey. Essential includes policy questions but don’t remember demographic ones.

Keep an eye on Possum’s blog I guess.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 30 Mar 2016, 16:13

As well as polls there is the betting market on elections/leaders:

Stephen Koukoulas ✔ ‎@TheKouk
Election betting.
Coalition out to $1.20. Was $1.09 at Xmas
Labor into $4.50. Was $6.50.
Curious

8:26 PM - 21 Mar 2016
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 30 Mar 2016, 16:17

Essential 50:50 again.

Greens slowly going backwards, 4 weeks ago 11% now 9%. What you get for moving from right of centre to extreme right and selling out.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 31 Mar 2016, 08:08

You read the policy type surveys Essential does with the party polling and you shake your head at how people get things so wrong.

Coalition—ranked as more united. Pardon? As well as abbott wrecking Turnbull as best he can there is the extreme right pulling its own way. Labor—no Leadershit at all for the last 2.5 years!

Coalition—ranked as having better/more policies and better economic managers. This persists for a long time. Coalition have no idea how to manage the economy and are a Party looking for a policy, any policy. Only policy setting, austerity, is the absolutely wrong one. Labor has released more policy by now than any Party since Fightback!

And so on.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 01 Apr 2016, 15:44

Morgan poll shows support for Labor rising in all states.
http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/6737- ... 1604010044

Taken before Turnbull’s tax brainfart, so would be better for Labor by now.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 04 Apr 2016, 19:51

Morgan:

In early April L-NP support is 52.5% (up 3%) cf. ALP 47.5% (down 3%) on a two-party preferred basis. If a Federal Election were held now the L-NP would win.

Primary support for the L-NP is 42% (up 2%) with ALP at 31% (down 2%). Support for the Greens is down 1% to 13%, Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) 4.5% (up 0.5%; 22% in South Australia), Katter’s Australian Party is 0.5% (down 0.5%), Palmer United Party is 0% (down 0%) and Independents/ Others are at 9% (up 1%).


Apparently, Waffles has “shown leadership” which I must have missed. Forget this one. See Essential tomorrow.

“Greens down” is a common theme these days, supporters not liking the hard right, pro-LNP direction DiNatale has been showing.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 05 Apr 2016, 03:56

GhostWhoVotes ‎@GhostWhoVotes
#Newspoll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 49 (-2) ALP 51 (+2) #auspol

9:47 PM - 4 Apr 2016


GhostWhoVotes ‎@GhostWhoVotes
#Newspoll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 41 (-2) ALP 36 (+2) GRN 11 (-1) #auspol
9:48 PM - 4 Apr 2016


GhostWhoVotes ‎@GhostWhoVotes
#Newspoll Turnbull: Approve 38 (-1) Disapprove 48 (+4) #auspol

9:49 PM - 4 Apr 2016


GhostWhoVotes ‎@GhostWhoVotes
#Newspoll Shorten: Approve 32 (+4) Disapprove 53 (+1) #auspol
9:49 PM - 4 Apr 2016


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GhostWhoVotes
‏@GhostWhoVotes
#Newspoll Preferred PM: Turnbull 48 (-4) Shorten 27 (+6) #auspol


Leaders positions changing to the better for Labor. Dunno why Shorten has such low (but increasing) approvals. He is improving daily, speaking better etc.

Contradicts Morgan, bet Essential will too.

Green down. Told you that was a trend. Can’t pretend to be a progressive Party when you are clearly extremely right wing, that is what Di Natale doesn’t realise.

The national shit sheet:
Newspoll: Malcolm Turnbull, Coalition lose lead to Labor
The Australian April 4, 2016 10:15PM
Phillip Hudson Bureau Chief Canberra

The Coalition has surrendered its lead to Labor for the first time since Malcolm Turnbull became Prime Minister, with the latest Newspoll revealing the Bill Shorten-led opposition has pulled ahead, 51 per cent to 49 per cent, in two-party terms.

Amid mixed messages about the government’s tax policy and tensions between the Prime Minister and Treasurer Scott Mor­rison, support for the Coalition has tumbled to a six-month low as Mr Turnbull’s own standing ­continues to slide just 88 days out from a possible double-dissolution election.

The Newspoll, taken from Thursday to Sunday exclusively for The Australian, reveals the government’s primary vote has fallen to 41 per cent. It is down two points in the past fortnight and has dropped five points since the start of the year.

It comes as new polling reveals that voters strongly oppose giving states the power to levy their own income taxes. The Prime Minister’s “big idea” to give the states ­income tax powers was comprehensively rejected by the states at Friday’s Council of Australian Governments meeting.

……………

The poll of 1743 people shows Labor’s primary vote has climbed two points to a six-month high of 36 per cent while the Greens are down one point to 11 per cent. Support for other parties and independents rose one point to 12 per cent. Based on preference flows from the 2013 election, Labor leads in two-party-preferred terms by 51 per cent to the Coalition’s 49 per cent — a reversal of the poll a fortnight ago.

It is the first time the opposition has been ahead since Tony Abbott was deposed as prime minister 204 days ago and a dramatic shift from just 10 weeks ago when the ­Coalition started the political year leading Labor by 53 per cent to 47 per cent.

…………….

In the latest survey voters continued to mark down Mr Turnbull’s performance, with his satisfaction rating dipping one point to 38 per cent — down 15 points this year. Dissatisfaction with Mr Turnbull’s performance rose four points to 48 per cent and has doubled since he became Prime Minister. His net satisfaction rating — which measures the difference between those who are satisfied and those who are dissatisfied with his performance — has fallen to minus 10 points. In February it was a positive 22 points and last November it was a remarkably positive 38 points.

Satisfaction with Mr Shorten’s performance rose four points to 32 per cent to be only six points shy of Mr Turnbull’s rating.

And while dissatisfaction with Mr Shorten also rose one point to 53 per cent, he is now only five points above Mr Turnbull on this measure.

Mr Shorten’s net satisfaction rating sits at minus 21 points.

Mr Turnbull remained the preferred prime minister but his lead over Mr Shorten has narrowed from 31 to 21 points. The latest Newspoll shows Mr Turnbull preferred by 48 per cent of voters, down four points in the fortnight and down 16 points since his peak in November.

Mr Shorten was considered the better prime minister by 27 per cent, up six points in the fortnight and almost double the nadir of 14 per cent he reached last year, which had been the equal lowest ever for an ALP leader.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 05 Apr 2016, 15:58

Essential still 50:50
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 17 Apr 2016, 19:38

IPSOS 50:50

3% drop in Lib vote since March poll.

Waffles better PM/approval dropping but still ahead of Shorten.

Next week NewsPoll—will that show Labor ahead? Essential?
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