Poll Tracking

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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby Lefty » 20 Jan 2010, 06:20

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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 20 Jan 2010, 06:24

Probably. I attach no weight to this poll, next one will be more 'real.'

PvO is a lightweight as academic and commentator tho, never found he had any great insights.

ahahaha he drags out the old chestnut about Rudd's honeymoon may be finally over. Ya t'ink so, Pety love? Rudd ha been on holiday for weeks and Tone has been blathering the airwaves non stop. 14 to 25% PPm is NOT a big increase dillbrain, it is woeful (and casts doubt on the primary vote figures too, a poll should be internally consistent and I have pinged some polls that were not worth the cost of the paper they were printed on.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby Howard Stinks » 20 Jan 2010, 06:40

It could be because he is a known quantity who voters by and large don't think has rehabilitated himself enough from a series of blunders as a minister during the final term of the Howard government.

Please tell me this is a joke from the author, what does he mean "it could be" we know it to be the case, Fuck.Vote for this right wing extremist!
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 20 Jan 2010, 06:47

It is fine, HS. Govt has just been head down bum up working letting Tone blather on then when Parlt resumes 2nd Feb they will call him on all his contradictions etc. Do not worry about this poll, it is crap. It was taken to give a good reading for the Libs, well 54:46 is as good as it gets for the Libs and it took a crook poll to get them there!
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby Lefty » 20 Jan 2010, 06:56

Yeah - and if 54:46 somehow constitutes a "good" reading for the fibs then I'll be a monkey's uncle. It just means that the dial has been turned back ever so slightly from "complete anhililation" to merely "terrible hiding".

And that "impovement" :roll might not even be true yet.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby skippy » 20 Jan 2010, 08:49

This is all very funny ,after spending the last three years with their fingers in their ears singing lalalalalala the polls are not true the polls are not true, yesterday the coalition were out there spruiking they were back in the game.
I heard Barnaby Joyce on the radio saying that" the coalition had turned the corner, the people have accepted Abbott as leader and now the coalition are in there with a big chance of winning the next election.
Are these blokes for real? At 54/46 which is the best they've achieved in opposition they'd actually lose more seats, up to about 15 more.
As for the public accepting Abbott, 25% is not hard on territory,when he hits 45% give me a yell.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby Lefty » 21 Jan 2010, 20:41

One thing that I found surprising, as did Poss was the number of Australians more worried about the economy




Image

Poll results don't really square with latest consumer sentiment. How can people get more worried about the economy according to newspoll but much more confident at the same time?

I think Abbot should enjoy whatever honeymoon he may be having before the next polls.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 21 Jan 2010, 20:49

It may be they are thinking "this is too easy, the world economy is busted so if we are doing well it is only temporary" and so they get worried about nothing. I cannot think of anything else that would explain it!

Maybe that also explains low polling for AGW/CPRS? they are still worried about their job and mortgage?

Idiots like Sprint and Joe Hockey & Barnyard bellow there wasn't any need for stimulus--maybe people are swallowing the debt & deficit crap? As something to explain their unease at no 10% unemployment here?
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 22 Jan 2010, 12:32

ALP strengthens lead after Summer holidays
ALP 58.5% (up 1.5%) to L-NP 41.5% (down 1.5%)


Gary Morgan says:

“The Rudd Government (58.5%, up 1.5%) has strengthened its Two-Party preferred lead over the Tony Abbott-led Opposition (41.5%, down 1.5%) as Australians return to work after their Summer holidays.

“The increased lead for the ALP is matched by rising Consumer Confidence — now at 130.0 (already up 9.6pts in 2010) and at its highest for nearly five years, since February 2005 (132.0).

“Incumbent Governments usually gain support as Consumer Confidence rises, and today’s Morgan Poll shows the Rudd Government is also benefiting from an increasingly confident Australian population.”




http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/20 ... w-edition/

Face to face, 1800 sample size. Morgan is biased to Labor (in sampling algorithm) but the trend is up. the Newspoll was held too early and is suspect. Greens inching up a tad since the election.

Possum: http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/20 ... w-edition/
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 22 Jan 2010, 17:32

Newspoll is no longer reliable IMO.

This is what we expect considering how well the economy is doing.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby Lefty » 22 Jan 2010, 17:51

:bgrin

You were right I think JM - Rudd has been out of the news while Abbot has been blathering on ceaselessly. Now that is over, so is Tone's honeymoon (if there was one).
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 22 Jan 2010, 17:57

Funny things have been happening with newspoll--I no longer trust it--there was a special one they did, included something to do with party affiliation so they asked for voters preferred party yet when that poll was published NO voting figures were included.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 25 Jan 2010, 16:01

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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby Lefty » 27 Jan 2010, 06:34

A truly extordinary poll result.....ALP's worst polling in 3 years.

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2010/01/26/alps-poorest-polling-in-3-years/

Unemployment (relatively) low and falling, business confidence up, consumer confidence roaring ahead, Australian economy outperforming just about every other advanced country in the world - yet Labour goes backward on all areas closely related to these.

It's difficult to fathom such an unbelieveably schizophrenic result - voters are percieving one of the best performing economies in the world as doing poorly? And yet, they can't be............business and consumer confidence simply could not be rising if they were. These results appear to make no logical sense.

Any ideas JM? It's got me fucked.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 27 Jan 2010, 06:58

I read Possum's post and was flabbergasted. Haven't got my head around it yet at all and those concerns of the voters doesn't square with the high ALP primary and TPP support!

will see if party polling supports this and if it does Rudd/Gillard/Swan etc will be hitting the airwaves big time.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby Lefty » 27 Jan 2010, 07:04

The result just makes NO sense - businesses and consumers are saying that they think the economy is doing well (which it is overall) - but they also think it is doing poorly at the same time? Very confident in the economy yet not at all confident in the economy.......both at the same time.

It's a truly bizzare result.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby Lefty » 27 Jan 2010, 07:06

and those concerns of the voters doesn't square with the high ALP primary and TPP support!


We might want to look at that...............I wonder if there is some serious push polling or something going on? Because such massively opposing results are just not normal.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 27 Jan 2010, 07:09

I will have a look at the actual ER Report but doubt very strongly that they are doing push polling.

Could there have been some error, some error of explaining the questions that was very ambiguous? but they did the same questions 3 months ago. Weird.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby Lefty » 27 Jan 2010, 18:22

So....primaries and TPP scarcely move but Labor goes backward on all the most important questions, especially regarding the economy.

I think sometimes it is easy to forget that what is so plainly evident to those of us who follow politics closely is not at all evident to the average punter. When it comes to this area, the average voter is as clueless as a toddler. So most people are probably completely unaware that..

The IMF confirmed Australia's economic growth of just under 1% in 2009 had outstripped every other developed nation in fighting off the global fiancial crisis with other advanced economies contracting 3.2%


from today's dead tree Australian - front page.

- they probably are not aware that unemployment is lower than most other places and falling

- they are probably not aware that inflation is not presently a significant threat

- they are probably not aware that interest rates, though rising are as low as they have been for years. Further, they are probably not aware of what the RBA does with interest rates, why it does it and that there is a "neutral rate" of 5%-6% that the RBA likes to return to

The absolutely stirling performance of our economy under Labor is starkly evident to anyone who is interested enough to look - but very few people are interested enough to look.

Moral of the story: the message will not sell itself to the public. You have to be constantly drawing their attention to the facts. Labor has not been doing this of late, and this has allowed Abbot to get his mug in the media every day and dribble his version of events unchallenged. When you keep telling the same lies about someone for long enough and that someone is not around to defend themselves, it's only a matter of time before some of the people start to believe it.

On that that though, while I don't make a habit of watching Sunrise, I caught a snippet on it the other morning that Kevin Rudd would be a regular feature on this years programme every Friday. Better get out there and sell the message Kevin!



Sometimes, the apathy and pig ignorance of people who are allowed to vote in this country pisses me off.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 27 Jan 2010, 18:46

Well, Tone and Barnyard have been allowed to sound off, starting Monday their words will come back to them, from Rudd & Gillard (Gillard will have some killer one liners worked out!) swan and Tanner and Albanese and especially. . .Roxon.


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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 01 Feb 2010, 20:02

From Possum:

This week’s Essential Report comes in with the primaries running 45 (down 1) / 38 (up 1) to Labor, washing out into a two party preferred of 56/44 the same way – steady since last week. The Greens are on 9 (up 1), while the broad “Others” are on 8 (down 1). This comes from a rolling two week sample of 1937, giving us an MoE that maxes out around the 2.2% mark.


http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/fi ... 010210.pdf
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 01 Feb 2010, 20:26

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/20 ... tarts-now/

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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 01 Feb 2010, 22:29

Abbott gaining ground on Rudd: Newspoll

AAP

The Opposition Leader Tony Abbott is gaining ground on Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, according to the latest Newspoll.

The second Newspoll of 2010, published in The Australian newspaper on Tuesday, shows primary support for Labor was steady at 40 per cent compared with the previous survey, while the Coalition had gained three points to 41 per cent.

The poll also found that on a two party-preferred basis, Labor's vote had dropped from 54 per cent to 52 per cent and the coalition's had risen to 48 per cent, from 46 per cent.

There has been little change on the question of who would make the better prime minister, with Mr Rudd securing 58 per cent support among those surveyed and Mr Abbott 26 per cent.


http://news.theage.com.au/breaking-news ... -n91n.html

This I don't believe. If the Libs really were doing so well Tone would have better figures.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 02 Feb 2010, 14:17

Tone would have attracted back some of the hard right from LaRouche and other loony far-right parties so their primary would have improved (but not the TPP.)

Doubt Labor is really that low tho.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby Lefty » 02 Feb 2010, 18:26

Yeah, seems hard to fathom.
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