Poll Tracking

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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby Lefty » 17 Nov 2009, 06:48

Yeah, he's always on the go.

The biggest thing about Flynn is that the biggest centre - Gladstone - being an industrial town was long a Labor stronghold but it is balanced against an enormous rural area, so lots of cuntry party voters. Very even split here.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 17 Nov 2009, 06:53

Heh I bet Rudd keeps them active in their electorates, esp the marginal Labor seats!

If the new mining boom starts really powering on the industrial part of the seat should grow which will help.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby Lefty » 17 Nov 2009, 18:41

If a new mining boom kicks in, Gladstone and the coal mining towns will go to us. The cockies will always be a problem of course
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 17 Nov 2009, 19:22

The cockies will reduce in number as agribusinesses buy up family farms
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby Lefty » 17 Nov 2009, 19:29

I think the drought might have claimed a few already :bgrin

No that's not really funny - but they vote National party, so......................
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 17 Nov 2009, 19:31

No, but it happens every drought. god, who'd be a farmer?
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby Lefty » 18 Nov 2009, 21:00

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2009/11/18/the-definition-of-pathetic/#more-6410

Possum takes time out from his usual psephology to expose Bolt the dolt as the biggest arseclown in (so-called) journalism. Apparently he had his poor widdle feelings hurt by people using crass insults against him. I mean, who would want to call such a polite, sensible, genteel individual as Bolt nasty names? :bgrin
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 18 Nov 2009, 22:24

hahaha I started reading that whgen I was interrupted

Sodomised with a calculater--Its a metaphor Andrew! ahahahahahaha
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby Lefty » 18 Nov 2009, 22:34

I wonder if shoving a calculator up his clacker would increase his IQ?
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 18 Nov 2009, 22:37

very likely I'd say :ha :ha :ha

His brains are obviously stored in his arse!
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 27 Nov 2009, 14:52

Morgan: 58.5-41.5
Friday, November 27, 2009 – 2:50 pm, by William Bowe

Hard to say what to make of a poll conducted last weekend in the present fluid circumstances, but the latest Morgan face-to-face poll suggests the Oceanic Viking issue was washing out of the system even before the Liberal Party went into its present meltdown. Labor is up three points on the primary vote to 48 per cent while the Coalition is down one to 35.5 per cent. The Greens are steady on 9 per cent; most of the balance comes from Family First, which has corrected from 3 per cent to 1.5 per cent after an aberrant result last week. Labor’s lead on two-party preferred is up from 56.5-43.5 to 58.5-41.5.


After this week, what will Newpoll say next monday night? Oh boy!
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 27 Nov 2009, 15:04

Odds for Hockey now $1.33, Abbot $4, Turnbull $5 at Sportingbet.


(from PB)
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 27 Nov 2009, 15:13

Holy shit! Just looked up Federal election odds on Sportingbet (my booky for election bets)

Labor: $1.15
Coalition: 5.00

Woooo minor party status next election! Bring it on Rudd, bring it on!

This summer will be a real fucking scorcher and those odds on the Coalition will widen much more.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 28 Nov 2009, 07:30

The political machinations come as a Galaxy poll, conducted exclusively for The Courier-Mail, shows 56 per cent of Queenslanders approved of the agreement on the ETS, including 73 per cent of ALP voters and 42 per cent of Coalition voters. . . .The Galaxy poll, the first to be conducted since Mr Turnbull agreed to a deal on the ETS with the Rudd Government, also shows the Coalition continuing to trail Labor. If an election were held today, the ALP would romp home on a two-party-preferred basis by 54 per cent, up almost 4 percentage points since the 2007 election.

The Coalition has slumped by the same margin, down to 46 per cent.

The poll comes after leadership issues in the Liberals have consumed the federal Opposition.


http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/stor ... 02,00.html

It is a great time to be a Labor supporter! :bgrin :bgrin :purple :OMG :yahoo
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby Lefty » 28 Nov 2009, 09:26

Heehehehe - 100+ seats, here we come :bgrin

Had heard rumours that some of the regional and coalmining town base would turn against Rudd over the ETS. Checked the CFMEU and the ETU, the two unions with the biggest membership in coal mining-electricity generation and other heavy, carbon-emitting industry (especially here in Flynn) but I can't see any negative commmentry at all.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 28 Nov 2009, 09:29

Yeah they are whinging. 75% of coal mined is metallurgical coal so that will still go ahead. Can't keep burning fucking brown coal and that is flat! Huge CO2 emissions for every watt generated!

Plenty of iron ore being dug up, plenty of mining jobs about I'd say.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby Lefty » 28 Nov 2009, 09:49

It's mostly metalurgical coal here in Flynn. Everyone will still need to make steel no matter what.

How far is this supposed to push the price of carbon up? Australia's massive reserves of high-quality coal and huge, long-established industry for digging it up are the reasons that alternative energy struggles to get a foothold here. Our super-abundant coal is just too cheap and well-established.

A lot of people still appear to think that renewables are pie-in-the-sky fantasies. Pig's arse! In some modern countries, the bulk of their energy is produced from renewables. We have craploads of wind, sunshine and hot rocks. We also have the bulk of the worlds uranium deposits.

The price of carbon probably has to rise before either the private sector or governments are prepared to invest in revewables in any major way.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 28 Nov 2009, 11:03

And the CPRS does that, no matter how timidly at first. Fuck the Libs and their amendments making it even weaker. Fuck the Greens for playing politics. We don't get this through there will be no second ETS for ages! Like we still don't have a republic! Grrrr!!!
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 29 Nov 2009, 07:43

In the Willagee state bi-election in WA Labor increased its primary vote with the Greens on 30%.

Guess the Libs are an unsalable brand except to idiots like Deepshit, the unthinking rusted on.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 30 Nov 2009, 13:30

Newspoll: 57-43; Nielsen: 56-44

Liberal leader, Joe Hockey is on 33 per cent in Newspoll and 36 per cent in Nielsen; Malcolm Turnbull is on 30 per cent and 32 per cent; and Tony Abbott is on 19 per cent and 20 per cent. Hairs breath between Truffles and Sloppy Joe--so what is the point swapping Leaders?

Comment from PB:
Dear god, who are the 35-37% of people still voting for the Liberal party??
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 30 Nov 2009, 19:38

Essential 58:42

details later!
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby Lefty » 30 Nov 2009, 19:43

Essential 58:42


Devastating! :bgrin :purple
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby Lefty » 30 Nov 2009, 19:50

Two years on, and they haven't even stabalised, they keep going backwards.

Like the Israelites, they seem doomed to wander at least 30 years in the wilderness - except that the Israelites didn't burn through Moses after Moses :bgrin
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 30 Nov 2009, 19:55

Moses after Moses. . .hahahahaha!
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 04 Dec 2009, 16:52

The latest face-to-face Morgan Poll conducted last weekend, November 28/29, 2009, shows the ALP (58.5%, unchanged) maintaining a strong two-party preferred lead over the L-NP (41.5%, unchanged) before Tony Abbott’s election as the new Liberal Party Leader on Tuesday this week.

The ALP primary vote 47% (down 1%) remains well ahead of the L-NP (35%, down 0.5%), while looking at the minor parties shows support for the Greens (9.5%, up 0.5%), Family First (3%, up 1.5%) and Independents/ Others (5.5%, down 0.5%).

A special telephone Morgan Poll, conducted on the nights of December 2/3, 2009 shows the L-NP making gains after Tony Abbott’s election as the new Liberal Leader on Tuesday. Primary support for the L-NP (43%) is ahead of the ALP (41%) for the first time since the 2007 Federal Election.

Looking at the minor parties shows support for the Greens was 10.5% (up 2.5%), Family First, up 0.5% to 1.5% and Independents/ Others 4% (down 3%).

On a two-party preferred basis the ALP (53%) retains an edge over the L-NP (47%) — figures barely changed from the last telephone Morgan Poll conducted on November 11/12, 2009 which showed the ALP (52%) ahead of the L-NP (48%).

However in analysing this telephone poll result, it is worth noting that telephone polls have typically been biased towards the L-NP and more ‘responsive’ to current events.

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is now at 121 (down 12.5pts) with 54% (down 6.5%) of Australians confident that Australia is ‘heading in the right direction,’ compared to 33% (up 6%) that say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction.’

The weekly Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for November 28/29, 2009 is 123.2, down 2.4 points.


http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2009/4444/

No sample sizes given. So Tone got a tiny bounce, big deal.

sample size of 597--but the phone or fafce to face poll??? In any case only Deephit would get excited about a poll with a sample size under 600. When they are over 800, ahhh, still big margin of error but a meaningful poll at least. Doubt Tone got any bounce at all!
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