Poll Tracking

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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 11 Jan 2010, 13:05

Possum looks at state of play in the states.

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/20 ... ng-states/
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby Howard Stinks » 11 Jan 2010, 21:26

Clicked Possum Cimitatus link to see the latest, bellow is what it reads,
No I'm not lazy Mr Posum. Bugger.
Not Found
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 11 Jan 2010, 21:29

Must have been a glitch, HS, link worked fine for me just now--these things happen with computers!


So, link worked yet,HS?
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 12 Jan 2010, 14:14

Possum looks at women and the Libs:

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/20 ... en-voters/

Libs no longer have the higher support from women.

Losing in capital cities, losing support from female demographic, preboomers taking their vote to the grave and Tone and Barnyard are happily moving the coalition ever more rightwards--anyone in that party have a brain?

Without any thinking from them the Libs will be the Nats in 10 years!
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby Lefty » 12 Jan 2010, 17:24

We are gonna kick so much righty arse at the election this year :f
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 12 Jan 2010, 17:26

A bodaciuous amount!
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 15 Jan 2010, 18:22

Morgan also have a phone poll taken over 13th and 14th
54.5/45.5
their previous phone poll was
53/47

PPM Rudd 61/25 over Abbott

Hmmmm sample size: 659

Too small.

People seem to be moving from saying we must act before it is too late re climate change to "Concerns are exaggerated."

(And yet we documented the damage AGW will do, like the dangerous jelly fish spreading their range and season!)
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby Lefty » 15 Jan 2010, 18:38

Like you said - sample size too small.

Severe northern hemisphere winter maybe driving some of the "concerns are exaggerated" response?
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 15 Jan 2010, 18:40

Very likely! hadn't thought of that!

Also, Rudd has not explained the CPRS/AGW very much--keeping powder dry for an election/DD?
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby Lefty » 15 Jan 2010, 18:59

We are still gonna kick their butts and increase our margin.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby Lefty » 19 Jan 2010, 06:30

Latest newspoll a little disappointing.

Government still in a very clear election winning position but support by all measures has slid while support for fibs has grown. Better pm hard to determine yet - massively in Rudd's favour but the preriod also covers Turnbull's time.

Copenhagen disappointment, big freeze in northern hemisphere allowing sceptics to trumpet the "world is not warming" - think of anything else?

Although remember the outlier a while back that had The Australian wetting istelf?

Above all, people are FICKLE - but come campaign time, the government will be reminding them of Australia's outstanding success while the rest of the world wallows in GFC delivered shit. And of workchoices.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/support-for-pm-kevin-rudd-softens-as-liberal-base-swings-to-tony-abbott/story-e6frgczf-1225821021930
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 19 Jan 2010, 07:01

Mostly just movement within MoE

A lot of people still away on holidays--I bet more older people in this sample than is usual. Let us wait for the next one. And the govt tactic is to let Tone spout off, his contradictions and backflips will increase his dissatisfaction ratings. The polls are where they have been for three years.

This is Tone's honeymoon bounce, is all.

The other polls don't show what Newspoll does--just ignore this one, too much noise. There was a Essential Research one which I am trying to find.

ER 56:44 (-1 change, just statistical noise) because this is all done on-line don't have that holiday effect I bet Newspoll does, ER have bigger sample sizes too. (1900-odd compared to 1100 for Newspoll) This is as good as it gets for Tone.


A poll of some kind--Rudd paying too much attention to Climate Change, 2/3rds yes. Support for some ETS now below 50%, nearly level pegging with against will have contributed to a slight slide in Rudd's approvals. Wed is first Community Cabinet here in SA, watch Rudd pick up approval again, more when Parliament resumes and govt has all of Tone's blatherings to have fun with in QT.)

hehehehehe PB comment:

Odd time for a newspoll really – Rudd has been on holidays for the last 2 weeks, and before that was Christmas, so what are they polling??


To give Tone a leg up – especially post his “I’m a Greenie, Honest” manifesto.


Next week would have been a better time to hold a more honest poll. Wait for a Feb one I reckon.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby skippy » 19 Jan 2010, 08:58

One in four voters - 25 per cent - are uncommitted on whether they are happy or unhappy with the Liberal leader. That compares with just 15 per cent under Mr Turnbull's leadership.

On the question of who would make the better prime minister, Mr Abbott secured a modest rise from 23 to 25 per cent, according to Newspoll.

Mr Rudd's rating as better prime minister has fallen from 60 per cent to 57 per cent.

The Prime Minister's lowest rating was 54 per cent in September 2008.


I don't think Rudd has much to worry about even on these numbers, 54% is still 1.3% more than Labor won the last election with.
As for preferred PM,Abbott on 25% is still pathetic, didn't Nelson rate higher than that? Lets face it, Turnbull was polling 16% so anything looks better than that.
Lets not forget that this poll is a liberal party gazette poll as well, The OZ always find a positive spin for the Libs.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 19 Jan 2010, 09:02

It has a 3% MoE

anything can happen but only a fool draws conclusions from it.

And lots of people still on holiday, not home to take phone call. They should have waited a week!

And this is as good as it gets for Tone, tiny bounce pretty much all in MoE
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby Lefty » 19 Jan 2010, 18:49

Yeah, unless they show a powerful, sustained upward trend from here, the result for the coalition will be that they will still cop a complete bollocking at the election. The polls have to show a very large, sustained improvement for them just for them to still lose but without losing anymore seats.

One thing that I found surprising, as did Poss was the number of Australians more worried about the economy - Labor really needs to hammer home the facts that the average lumpenproletarian probably doesn't realise - just how much better the Aust economy is performing compared to nearly anywhere else in the world.

We shouldn't assume that the average person is remotely interested in current affairs the way all of us political bloggers are - they watch crap t.v shows instead and haven't got a clue what happens about the place unless it's on Chelsea lately.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 19 Jan 2010, 18:56

Very true, about the lumpenproletariat, can you remember a 4Corners show re WorkCover? Half these idiots were being ripped off by their boss, atrocious conditions and they didn't have a clue who to vote for!

Howard showed the way (in desperation, that interview on ACA with Costello was pathos personified and desperation writ large) but crap shows like ACA and TNT are ways Rudd/Gillard can get in and reach the lumpenproletariat!
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 19 Jan 2010, 19:03

Possum on AGW and CPRS polling

Looks like the Andrew dolts of the world are winning.

Then when action is needed the Dolts of the world will scream loudest!
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby Lefty » 19 Jan 2010, 20:02

People should be glad that we're not Estonia or Latvia - blind adherence to neo-liberal reforms during the GFC is strangling both countries.

Image

http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=7409#comments
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 19 Jan 2010, 20:05

Holy fucking shit! 15 and 19% unemployment??? No way!
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby Lefty » 19 Jan 2010, 20:43

Yes way! They heavily embraced neo-liberal market reforms and when that fucked up, they sought a loan from the IMF who demanded that they (the governmen) arse rape the country and it's people in return by way of imposing harsh fiscal austerity. The cunts.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 19 Jan 2010, 20:48

That would be the idiot Geithner's work no doubt.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby Lefty » 19 Jan 2010, 21:27

He's probably mixed up in it somewhere.

The IMF are an extremely politically partisan organisation, neo-liberal to the core. They have been responsable for some dreadful outcomes in poorer and developing nations.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 19 Jan 2010, 21:29

Wrote the manual I would have thought.

So, who can tell them to change their ideas? Obama?
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby Lefty » 19 Jan 2010, 21:35

A firing squad? :bgrin
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 19 Jan 2010, 22:04

It might be that is the one thing could do it.

I posted early on after Obama was elected that Keating slammed the appointment: stupid Keating isn't!
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