Poll Tracking

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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 02 Jan 2010, 09:18

Labor on top as regional cities swing back
Samantha Maiden, Online political editor From: The Australian January 02, 2010 12:00AM
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KEVIN Rudd remains dominant and is on track to pick up Liberal-held seats in Victoria, South Australia and Queensland if he chooses to go to the polls early in a double-dissolution election.

That is the finding of a Newspoll survey, published exclusively in The Weekend Australian today, which also reveals Labor has reversed its drop in support in regional cities, returning to 53 per cent on two-party-preferred terms.

But the Newspoll, which covers the period including and immediately before a bitter Liberal split on climate change, the failure of Copenhagen to secure a binding agreement and the elevation of Tony Abbott as leader, detects small decreases in support for the government among those 50 years and older.

The results underline the Opposition Leader's decision to focus on winning over older voters by elevating Bronwyn Bishop to the front bench with the seniors portfolio, arguing she remains popular with the elderly.


http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/na ... 5815371338

Full figures: http://resources.news.com.au/files/2010 ... wspoll.pdf

Now, a lot of that is horse puckey! Regional cities sample would be quite small, much smaller than the capital cities with corresponding large MoE and volatitilty in results obtained. Tiny decrease in over 50's--again, in the absence of sample size or MoE, just random changes, normal variability.

Basically, polls are pretty steady, Libs will lose more seats and the Abbott experiment should be terminated unless the Libs have a deathwish.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby Lefty » 07 Jan 2010, 17:39

The evidence of AGW appears to be accelerating - Abbot's dribblings of horse shit about how AGW is all horse shit are not going to do the fibs any favours.

Any article printed by The Australian is always infused with a thinly disguised hope for a Coalition resurgence. Right wing snot rag.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby Lefty » 08 Jan 2010, 07:19

Think back over the last two years of the Rudd government and keep in your thought orbit the never ending commentaries of Labor facing some “political crisis” or “increased pressure” or dangerous “political test” which was inevitably going to end in failure. Think back on the multitude of dour proclamations by the usual suspects – for some reason routinely published in The Australian – that the Labor government is/was/always will be on the precipice of some public revolt.

Now compare that….. quality insight …. to the reality – using Newspoll quarterly data

From Possum

As I was saying about The Australian :bgrin
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 08 Jan 2010, 07:28

Hadn't seen that article yet. With Tone doing his caveman impression the Lib vote in capital cities could well drop below 33%

They cannot win an election with such a low primary vote: right now where their TPP is is where their primary needs to be to have any hope of winning an election. They will go backwards in a big way is my prediction--even to the extent of a couple of Senate seats changing Lib to Lab that otherwise would not have happened. With their huge split down the middle, they won't get the stability they need to safeguard seats on 10% notional margins!

Three Opposition Leaders in two years? Madness!
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby Lefty » 08 Jan 2010, 07:57

Election simulation forecasts that if an election were held today, Labor would end up with 107 seats.

Is there a political term for an even worse disaster for the opposition than a "landslide victory" for the government?

The opposition "disappeared up their own arses" - that would be an apt saying, and very Australian as well :bgrin
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 08 Jan 2010, 08:01

bwahahaha

But


that is what you get for going to the extremes instead of the centre--no swinging voters at the extreme (OK, maybe League of Rights swing to One Nation, but no government-changing swings out there! A twelve year old would know that, surely (maybe not, Deepshit doesn't realise it :bgrin )
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby Lefty » 08 Jan 2010, 08:08

I think Turbull was wise enough to realise that and tried with all his might to drag his party kicking and screaming into the 21'st century. He ended up paying the price for that and his party are paying the price for cutting him down and moving further to the right.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 08 Jan 2010, 08:18

Unfortunately for the Libs (and for the govt, need a strong Opposition to keep govt on its toes) Turnbull is not a politician--witness his appalling gaffe in Utegate.

Tone is a professional politician but has forgotten he has to move the Party back to the centre. Then again, if he did that Minchin would just get rid of him and put in his place someone even more extreme!
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby Lefty » 08 Jan 2010, 08:32

The breakdown of the fibs has become an epic saga, sort of like Days of our lives. Unlike that one though, I never get tired of watching this :purple :bgrin
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 08 Jan 2010, 08:37

And don't forget the demographic train wreck awaiting them. 20 seats!
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby Lefty » 08 Jan 2010, 08:43

20 seats!


Is that how many they will be holding in total after the coming election? :bgrin
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 08 Jan 2010, 08:57

That is what the dying-off of the preboomers will cost them
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby skippy » 08 Jan 2010, 09:18

Left of Centre wrote:Election simulation forecasts that if an election were held today, Labor would end up with 107 seats.

Is there a political term for an even worse disaster for the opposition than a "landslide victory" for the government?

The opposition "disappeared up their own arses" - that would be an apt saying, and very Australian as well :bgrin


I dont know if you guys read the Telegragh blogs but Abbott will be bloging about IR at 10.30 today, I've already sent in my comments to him, its good for a laugh if he has the gonads to print them.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby Lefty » 08 Jan 2010, 09:21

Thanks for that one Skip!
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 08 Jan 2010, 09:29

Actually, one thing I will give Tone, he does tend to publish all comments, pretty much (or used to, now he is Oppn Leader maybe a bit more selective?)

Hope you post here the outcome of all that skippy, is it WC under a different name?
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 08 Jan 2010, 09:36

From Possum, the article referenced earlier:
Something the Coalition might want to pay attention to federally is the way the Queensland conservatives managed to play themselves out of electoral success for 20 years. The Coalition (and later the LNP) in Qld allowed Labor to dominate the Brisbane city vote in much the same way that Rudd is doing now with capital cities across Australia.

Labor cannot lose while it has a strong city vote. But worse, the stronger Labor becomes in the cities, the fewer metropolitan representatives the Coalition ends up with in a given Parliament – forcing the policy and leadership choices the Coalition takes to any later election being mostly designed and supported by non-metropolitan interests.

That generally alienates any metro voters that have even a slight interest in political modernity – which usually happens to be most of them.

Lawrence Springborg as LNP leader getting flicked the bird by Brisbane voters for 3 elections on the trot now is a good case study. If the Coalition loses too many metro seats this year, their political problems will have only just begun.


Methinks they should have stuck with Turnbull--with a much better Deputy leader than Mesmerelda! A Turnbull-Tone team would have been good. Turnbull to charm the masses, Tone to ensure he don't do stupid things and do all the jeadkicking etc required. They are fools!
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 08 Jan 2010, 13:11

Re that demographic trainwreck, if you look at polls for a while you find that Essential Research always favors Labor: they draw their samples from their on-line panel, by definition most of these would be younger people, not those in their 70s and 80s, and that shows this could make a 2-3% drop in coalition support as the preboomers take their high coalition vote to the grave.

The Libs are very well organised (and perhaps a bit tricky shall we say) in getting votes from people in retirement and nursing homes which are, of course, the elderly. Election after election you see these prepoll votes come in to save a Lib candidate's arse in a tight race. Well, in ten years time or so these won't be there anymore for the Libs.

So, if the elderly are dying off it follows that the Libs need to capture the younger, newer voters. So they put in Tone who promptly says global warming is crap, turning new voters to Labor or Greens and Labor preferences.

Lib party is fucked, the extremists in it, like Minchin, want to be ideologically pure. Fine for Nick who has the #1 Senate position, not so fine for the yapping poodle and the lazy sod Southcott in Boothby.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby Ethnic » 08 Jan 2010, 14:26

I'll have to admit, an increasing number of young people in my area are turning to the Liberals. It could be that they like Isobel Redmond. I'm not sure but the Liberal's might want to take advantage of that.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 08 Jan 2010, 14:33

Lib strategists must be lining up to jump of the Sydney Heads.

Even Labor isn't home skott-free: younger voters are likely to turn to minor parties: the Greens have likely picked up 2% since the last fed election, even Fam First has firmed a percent or so--hard to be sure with the minor minor parties like FF because of small sample sizes but seems to be happening.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby Ethnic » 08 Jan 2010, 14:37

I'm happy that minor parties are starting to make an impact. The Democrats once upon a time kept the bastards honest. Now the major parties can do whatever they like. Who will step up to the challenge? Not the Greens, they're on another planet at the moment.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 08 Jan 2010, 14:41

A pity the Democrats went. The Greens are on the left of Labor, not making much difference plus they are too doctrinaire.

I wonder if they realise yet that now with Tone as Oppn leader and the Lib right triumphant the CPRS is the only option on the table? If they don't vote for it next month I think they will disappear from the scene quickly.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby Ethnic » 08 Jan 2010, 14:49

I was a former Democrats supporter but they lost it for me after the Meg Lees/Natasha Stott Despoja debacle. They chose popularity over real leadership and they paid a big price for that. The GST agreement was probably their suicide note. Then there was the in-fighting. Labor and Liberals had a field day with them in their dying days. The Greens, despite what Mantra believes, are not like the Democrats. Far from it. The Democrats had alot more grace and substance. I miss how they used to be.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby skippy » 08 Jan 2010, 16:17

HBS Guy wrote:Actually, one thing I will give Tone, he does tend to publish all comments, pretty much (or used to, now he is Oppn Leader maybe a bit more selective?)

Hope you post here the outcome of all that skippy, is it WC under a different name?


well he used to, he's published a lot of my comments before, though mostly when I've pissed in his pocket, I told him to challenge Turnbull a couple of weeks before he did and he loved that even though he said he had no intention to.
But alas today he didn't publish my comments, in fact out of the 19 comments published only one disagreed with his policies,mmmmmmmm.From what he wrote today he has every intention of bringing back NO CHOICES.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 08 Jan 2010, 16:20

Well, we knew that. What a hypocrite! He whinges about being dumped to 'only' $127K a year but he is happy to have laws that will see people on $27K/year take a paycut!
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby skippy » 08 Jan 2010, 16:33

HBS Guy wrote:Well, we knew that. What a hypocrite! He whinges about being dumped to 'only' $127K a year but he is happy to have laws that will see people on $27K/year take a paycut!


Actually the comment he posted that was critical of him mentioned that very thing, asked him how he was surviving now he was op leader and had got a pay rise. Funny thing is he failed to address that part of the comment. :roll
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