Poll Tracking

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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 15 Jun 2016, 16:04

Essential, as I predicted, is back at 51:49 to Labor. Nats on 4% (a decimal shift is all) instead of their usual 3 so could be more like 52:48.

Unfortunately, I think Labor is going to come in just short so 3 more years of Lib mismanagement. But numbers in the House will be tight and in the Senate the LNP won’t have the numbers.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 17 Jun 2016, 18:26

GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes
#Ipsos Poll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 49 (0) ALP 51 (0) #ausvotes

5:07 PM - 17 Jun 2016


Not wanting to sound too pessimistic but the swing has to be mostly in the marginals for Labor to win. That said, IPSOS is definitely biased to the Libs so the real score is likely a bit better for Labor.

Primaries:
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes
#Ipsos Poll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 39 (-3) ALP 33 (-3) #ausvotes

5:10 PM - 17 Jun 2016


This doesn’t make much sense.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 18 Jun 2016, 04:38

OK, bit more detail:

The Greens' party vote stands at a creditable 14 per cent, up one point in a fortnight but 5 percentage points higher than the 9 per cent share it received in 2013.
Another 14 per cent intend to support "others".



http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/federal-election-2016-labor-within-striking-distance-20160617-gplsgi.html

Greens and Others at 14% is bullshit. Other polls have Greens at 9–10% and even with MrX on 2% nationally Others likely to be no higher than 10%. PUP is gone, like 1% support, Katter is nowhere.

So Labor is on better than the 51:49 of this poll. IPSOS is biased to the Libs.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 24 Jun 2016, 19:05

GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 18m18 minutes ago

#ReachTEL Poll Federal Primary Votes: LNP 42.3 (-1.2) ALP 33.7 (+0.1) GRN 10.5 (+1.4) NXT 1.4 (-2.8) #ausvotes


Make of that mess what you will. Guess Libs have gone backwards a bit more which is always good. Figures a little bit biased to Libs so it is actually better for Labor than what is shown. Greens support overstated, X understated.

Sir Clyde Of Nob ‏@nobby15 23m23 minutes ago

#ReachTEL Poll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 51 (0) ALP 49 (0) #ausvotes

0 retweets 0 likes


Actual result more likely the other way round, certainly it is when you look at some of the REACHTEL marginal seat polling.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby Cherie » 25 Jun 2016, 14:29

this election is going too be tight! and at a week out, the tightening has begun- edge of the seat this one -
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 28 Jun 2016, 17:35

Essential comes in at 51:49 to Labor. Coalition support has dropped (probably a decimal of) 1%. So much for NewsPoll—as I said, the polls haven’t moved. X and Greens stable on 4 (v 2% NewsPoll) and 10 (v 9% Newspoll) respectively.

Given the Indies (X, Oaky & Windsor) will be largely successful and with the marginals looking good I reckon a hung Parliament is possible and will favor Shorten/Labor.

ER looked at preference votes:

19% of minor parties and independent voters say they will preference the Liberals and 39% say they will preference Labor. 22% don’t know which party they will preference.

Excluding the “don’t knows”, Labor receives 86% of preferences of Greens voters and 48% of the preferences of other voters – a very similar result to the 2013 election.


[url]19% of minor parties and independent voters say they will preference the Liberals and 39% say they will preference Labor. 22% don’t know which party they will preference.

Excluding the “don’t knows”, Labor receives 86% of preferences of Greens voters and 48% of the preferences of other voters – a very similar result to the 2013 election.http://www.essentialvision.com.au/
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby Cherie » 01 Jul 2016, 00:45

This just gives me a headache- come on Saturday and go labor!! :sad
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 12 Jul 2016, 18:05

Essential—no party polling but Leaders and some other questions:

Approval of Turnbull:
37% (down 3% from 2 weeks ago) of respondents approve of the job Malcolm Turnbull is doing as Prime Minister and 48% (up 8%) disapprove – a change in net approval rating from 0 to -11.

75% (down 3%) of Liberal/National voters approve of Malcolm Turnbull’s performance with 14% (up 4%) disapproving. 13% (down 7%) of Labor voters and 19% (down 1%) of Greens voters approve of Malcolm Turnbull’s performance.

By gender, men were 40% approve/48% disapprove and women 33% approve/46% disapprove.

Approval of Shorten:
39% (up 2% in last 2 weeks) of respondents approve of the job Bill Shorten is doing as opposition leader and 41% (up 2%) disapprove – no change in his net rating of -2.

78% (up 4%) of Labor voters approve of the job Bill Shorten is doing and 10% (no change) disapprove.

43% of men and 35% of women approve of Bill Shorten. 41% of men and 41% of women disapprove.


Better PM:
39% (down 1% in last 2 weeks) of respondents think Malcolm Turnbull would make the better Prime Minister and 31% (up 2%) think Bill Shorten would make the better Prime Minister.

42% of men prefer Malcolm Turnbull and 34% prefer Bill Shorten.

35% of women prefer Malcolm Turnbull and 29% prefer Bill Shorten.


Makeup of new govt
If neither the Liberal National coalition nor the Labor Party wins a majority in the election, 36% would prefer Labor to form a Government with the minor parties and independents and 33% would prefer the Coalition to form a Government with the minor parties and independents.

21% favour a new election.

62% of Greens voters prefer a Labor-led Government while 35% of other voters think there should be a new election. If the idiots prefer a Labor govt then they should vote Labor, simple! [Ed]

Marriage Equality plebiscite
58% agreed that people of the same sex should be allowed to marry and 28% think they should not. This is a 6% drop in support since March but similar to average level of support over the last 3 years.

Support for same sex marriage is 54% among men and 62% among women. 67% of under 35’s support same sex marriage – while those aged 65+ split 40% in favour/49% against.

58% support the stupid idea of a plebiscite—will be a festival of homophobia and hate. Stupid idea—Parliament changed the Marriage Act and can change it back. [Ed]
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby Gwynne » 12 Jul 2016, 20:00

How much is the plebiscite going to cost?
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 12 Jul 2016, 20:06

$160m is the figure bandied about. Do MUCH more good spent on hospitals or schools!
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 19 Jul 2016, 17:06

ER 51:49 to Labor. This is within MoE of the election.

Lib PV down to 35, was 38 two weeks ago, 37 last week. Dunno if it is significant, need another couple of weeks.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 26 Jul 2016, 17:13

Essential 52:48 to Labor.

Why oh why did the idiot Greens give Truffles his DD? NOW the nasties re Medicare are kicking in but the fucking election is over! Must be that the neocons posing as Greens are happy with Medicare being dismantled. Morons!
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 02 Aug 2016, 20:21

Newspoll 52:48 to Labor

Interesting questions about trusting media. ABC/SBS at top, FFX next, commercial TV then Murdoch shit sheets.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 16 Aug 2016, 20:07

ER 52:48 to Labor.

64% in favor of a Banking Royal Commission.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 23 Aug 2016, 14:10

ER has labor down a point on PV & TPP to lead 51:49

Essentially(!) unchanged from the last few.

I suspect NewsPoll and IPSOS might be in the field this weekend.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 30 Aug 2016, 09:08

The Australian’s Newspoll of 1,696 voters shows the Coalition has lost some support and its two-party-preferred vote was now locked at 50-50 with Labor.

Satisfaction levels with the prime minister have dropped six percentage points since the 2 July election to 34%, the lowest level since Turnbull ousted Tony Abbott from office.

Dissatisfaction with Turnbull is up five points since election day to 52%.

Overall, Turnbull is still preferred prime minister compared with the opposition leader, Bill Shorten, on 43% to 32%.

The Coalition’s primary vote has declined from 42.1% to 41%. Labor’s primary vote has risen to 36% from 34.7% on election day.


https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/aug/30/malcolm-turnbulls-popularity-at-new-low-newspoll-show

Oh dear. Couple more points in PV/TPP/disapproval and Fizza is where abbott was. What then?
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 30 Aug 2016, 21:42

Essential still 51:49 to Labor. Labor & Lib 1% up on PV, Others down 2%—not significant, well within margin of error.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 13 Sep 2016, 08:05

Last weeks Essential 52:48 to Labor.

This week we have a NewsPoll:
Leroy @Leroy_Lynch
Newspoll federal: TPP L/NP 50 (0) ALP 50 (0) Primary votes L/NP 41 (0) ALP 36 (0) GRN 9 (0) OTH 14 (0)

The Australian 10:31PM September 12, 2016
Phillip Hudson Bureau Chief Canberra

Malcolm Turnbull reaches his ­one-year anniversary as Prime Minister with a worse approval rating than Bill Shorten and his government tied at 50-50 with the ­opposition.

Despite Labor’s calamity last week with the forced resignation of prominent senator Sam Dastyari from its frontbench, there has been no gain for the Coalition according to the latest Newspoll, taken exclusively for The ­Australian. The poll of 1680 voters, surveyed from last Thursday to Sunday, shows no change in the past fortnight in the primary vote for the major parties, with the ­Coalition remaining on 41 per cent, Labor on 36 per cent, the Greens at 9 per cent and minor parties and independents at a combined 14 per cent. Based on preference flows from the July election, the two-party-preferred vote is unchanged at 50-50.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 13 Sep 2016, 16:45

Essential 52:48 to labor.

Malcolm has lower approval and higher net negative approval than Shorten.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 20 Sep 2016, 14:40

Todays Essential:

On voting intention, the Coalition is down another point on its primary vote to 37%, around five points down from the election and the same level as Labor, while the Greens remain on 10%. One Nation is up a point to 6% while NXT is on 4%, for an unchanged two-party preferred outcome of 52%-48% in Labor’s favour.


If no plebiscite, likely, majority (of supporters of all Parties) want Parliament to vote.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 27 Sep 2016, 13:36

Oops!

GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes
#Newspoll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 38 (-3) ALP 37 (+1) GRN 10 (+1) #auspol

11:02 PM - 26 Sep 2016


A drop of 3% on PV, not good for Fizza and the neocons.

2PV: 52:48 to Labor

It doesn’t get better for the neocons:
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes
#Newspoll Shorten: Approve 36 (+1) Disapprove 51 (-1) #auspol

11:04 PM - 26 Sep 2016


GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes
#Newspoll Turnbull: Approve 32 (-2) Disapprove 55 (+2) #auspol

11:03 PM - 26 Sep 2016


Shorten leading on approvals and the trend is with him. Now to move left a bit and Labor will win the next few elections while the Fibs and Nuts have a nice destructive ultra right v right fight. Rudd—Gillard—Rudd will look like a minor squabble by comparison.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 27 Sep 2016, 17:46

ER 52:48 to Labor, as usual.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby Aussie » 27 Sep 2016, 21:23

HBS Guy wrote:ER 52:48 to Labor, as usual.


So far out from an election, it will have little impact other than to further white ant Turdfull. He is completely in the hands of the right wing of his Party/Government.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 10 Oct 2016, 06:06

Leroy @Leroy_Lynch
Newspoll ALP 52(0) L/NP 48(0) Primary L/NP 39(+1) ALP 36(-1) GRN 10(0) OTH 15(0)

($) #auspol


Malcolm’s approval ratings the lowest ever.

Sample size 1622
(National shit sheet so no link.)
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 15 Oct 2016, 20:16

It isn’t important enough for a separate thread, but:

ALP govt returned in the ACT with a swing to it. Libs suffered a swing of over 2% and the Green neocons also lost votes but has a seat. Possible the Sex Party has a seat. That will be bad news for the Greens! Their whole sucking up to the Libs on Senate voting changes was to kee the Sex Party out the Senate. Greens are now just neocons for all their envirosocialist talk. A real reform Party like the Sex Party threatens them!

ALP up 1.2% Libs down 3.5%

(PBX)

I guess people LIKED the light rail proposal.

Alternatively, Truffles has harmed the Lib brand.
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