Poll Tracking

[HBS Guy]

Phil Coorey reports that the Coalition could lose up to 19 mainland seats – including four held by ministers – putting Labor in power with a firm majority, according to the latest quarterly aggregate of the monthly Fairfax/Ipsos poll.

https://www.outline.com/ysLxzt

[HBS Guy]

Leroy@Leroy_Lynch

#Essential poll TPP ALP 53 (0) L/NP 47 (0)
Primaries L/NP 38 (+1) ALP 37 (+1) GRN 10 (-2) ON 7 (+2) NXT 1 (0) OTH 8 (-1) http://www.essentialvision.com.au/wp-co ... 091018.pdf … #auspol

11:54 AM - Oct 9, 2018

[HBS Guy]

IPSOS has the Parties at 55:45.


GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes

#Ipsos Poll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 35 (+1) ALP 35 (+4) GRN 15 (0) #auspol[/quote]

52% back keeping immigration numbers the same or increasing. 45% have some concern about increasing population.


—The Age
[/quote]

[johnsmith]

IPSOS has the Parties at 55:45.

52% back keeping immigration numbers the same or increasing. 45% have some concern about increasing population.


—The Age

'concern' about immigration numbers is rather deceptive isn't it? I'm concerned, doesn't mean i want it to stop.

[HBS Guy]

Vic Labor 53:47 so likely to win the election despite the best efforts of the Murdoch press.

[HBS Guy]

The Prime Minister’s personal approval rating has fallen into negative territory, with 44 per cent of voters dissatisfied and 41 per cent satisfied with his performance.

The coalition’s primary vote is back where it was a month ago at 36 per cent, lower than the last Newspoll of Mr Turnbull’s tenure, and it trails Labor 46 to 54, the poll published in The Australian on Sunday night shows.

The Greens’ primary vote has dropped to nine per cent, losing two points, while One Nation is still on six per cent.

Based on the latest poll, the government would lose up to 19 seats if an election was held today, not including Malcolm Turnbull’s former seat of Wentworth which suffered a dramatic 19 per cent swing away from the Liberals.

https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2018/10/29/scott-morrison-newspoll-phelps/

Leroy
#Newspoll TPP ALP 54 (+1) L/NP 46 (-1)
Primary L/NP 36 (-1) ALP 39 (+1) GRN 9 (-2) ON 6 (0) OTH 10

ON is on 6% so:
ALP 39
LNP 36
GRN 9
ONE 6
OTH 4

Haven’t shown the ± 1 etc, need a difference of 2.4% for any change to be significant. Because of the looooong run of polls I would say Labor is on 39±1. I HOPE the Greens are declining but they are likely 10±1 too—they will be an anchor on the Shorten Labot govt, always, as some say, wanting a full loaf and if they don’t get it they vote for no bread at all. I say: the Greens are neoconservatives like the Libs and oppose whatever their wealthy inner city base won’t like (carbon price etc) and block it pretending to be ideologically pure. Waste of space the Greens.

One wonders how that idiot YouLiar will spin this poll

[HBS Guy]

Ah “NewsPoll changes nothing much” yeah right!

[HBS Guy]

IPSOS Poll:

54:46

Apparently voters unsure about Labor’s negative gearing reforms.

[HBS Guy]

Essential:

Special envoy for Christmas @Leroy_Lynch

#Essential fed TPP ALP 53 (-1) L/NP 47 (+1)
Primary L/NP 37 (-1) ALP 36 (-3) GRN 11 (+1) ON 7 (+1) OTH 9 (+2)

Theoretically the drop in ALP PV would be statistically significant because greater than margin of error but their panels are not always random so I am not putting any faith in that, the drop in PV will wash out over the next two weeks.

[HBS Guy]

Hmmm have missed a few polls.

Last week IPSOS 51:49, learned pontificating about Labor’s support for Medevac costing it votes. I knew that was bullshit.

This week NewsPoll 53:47, as normal.


Sentiment has shifted to treating the refugees on Manus and Nauru decently. Boat turnbacks prevent boats landing, more or less and the vast bulk of refugees now fly in: in fact more (64K in 4 years) have flown in than arrived by boat in 6 years. So I knew the crap about IPSOS was wrong, just variation in a not very good poll.

[pinkeye]

perhaps its time to get back on track eh?

Election looming.

[HBS Guy]

Anyone can post a poll result.

[HBS Guy]

Meanwhile, the Coalition has slumped to its worst result of 2019 and its 50th consecutive Newspoll loss, with Labor extending its lead to 54-46 on the two-party-preferred vote.

The Newspoll, conducted between March 7 and March 10 across the regions and capital cities, showed the Coalition dropping a point in primary vote to 36 per cent.

The result showed a two-point turnaround in Labor’s favour on a two-party preferred basis. It also showed One Nation’s primary vote jumping two points to seven per cent.

The Greens remained steady at 9 per cent while other minor parties dropped a point to 9 per cent.

https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/03/10/celia-hammond-curtin/

[johnsmith]

I'm not surprised the conalition has gone backwards. They've had a shocking few weeks.

[HBS Guy]

Any change under 3% unless replicated by 2-3 more polls is not worth worrying about. The samples of the poll are 2000 (supposedly) for Essential to 1200-1500 for the IPSOS/Newspoll/ReachTel polls compared to 40,000 sized samples for the jobs figures (that got reduced in some stupid budgetary saving of shitpence.)

The IPSOS was 3% down on the other polls—a problem with the algorithm generating the samples, not a real change: the electorate does not swing 3% in a week!

Galaxy seat polls of 400 sample size can be disregarded, samples do not become worthwhile until they reach 700 minimum.

A poll is based on “stratified sampling” where you need a number from each state (Tassie is not included in the national polls, too small a population to bother with) corresponding to its share of national population. You then want to get a mix of (wealthier, older) inner suburbs and (poorer, younger) outer suburbs and include metro/rural etc. And you need to allow for a proportion of people hanging the phone up etc etc. Complex and you can see error creeps in.

Another source of error is young people tend to not have landlines, less than older people tend to have.

Essential is interesting in that they have questions about how people feel about the issues of the day or how people feel about the government or the main Parties etc. But depsite them having the biggest sample they are not that accurate, that selection of sample again, fewer old people are on the net enough—maybe they have a website to keep in touch with grandkids and maybe a look at the ABC (Aust) website etc.

All in all, assuming a well-selected sample, the margin of error of a poll is 2.8%, the poll is ± 1.4% of the actual figure.

[Sprintcyclist]

Anyone can post a poll result.

The Coalition - 60%

Liberal Democrats - 40 %

[Sprintcyclist]

............ Overall, Sportsbet has a Labor victory at short odds of $1.25 with the Coalition out at $3.50. The predicted seat-by-seat results, while enough to give Labor more than the 76 seats needed to secure a majority, are not as emphatic as the Coalition losses projected under a uniform swing reflecting current national polling.

The latest Fairfax-Ipsos poll put Labor on 52 per cent of the two-party preferred vote with the Coalition on 48, an appreciable shift from the 54-46 October result in Labor's favour. ...................

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/betting-agency-odds-forecast-a-tighter-election-win-for-labor-than-opinion-polls-suggest-20181123-p50hv1.html

[HBS Guy]

Please read what I wrote about polling, Sprint, 2 posts above yours.

Journos have to sell papers, you and me know a polls have Margins of Error which you can assume to be 2.8% for the bigger polls (IPSOS, NewsPoll, Essential, ReachTEL).

So the IPSOS result is not 52 but 52 ± 2.8% so it could actually be 54.8%! (We do not need to consider the -2.8% bit because Labor has been 53-54 for over a year.

The polls are 53-54 to 46-47 to Labor and have been there for a long time.