Poll Tracking

[HBS Guy]

Phil Coorey reports that the Coalition could lose up to 19 mainland seats – including four held by ministers – putting Labor in power with a firm majority, according to the latest quarterly aggregate of the monthly Fairfax/Ipsos poll.

https://www.outline.com/ysLxzt

[HBS Guy]

Leroy@Leroy_Lynch

#Essential poll TPP ALP 53 (0) L/NP 47 (0)
Primaries L/NP 38 (+1) ALP 37 (+1) GRN 10 (-2) ON 7 (+2) NXT 1 (0) OTH 8 (-1) http://www.essentialvision.com.au/wp-co ... 091018.pdf … #auspol

11:54 AM - Oct 9, 2018

[HBS Guy]

IPSOS has the Parties at 55:45.


GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes

#Ipsos Poll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 35 (+1) ALP 35 (+4) GRN 15 (0) #auspol[/quote]

52% back keeping immigration numbers the same or increasing. 45% have some concern about increasing population.


—The Age
[/quote]

[johnsmith]

IPSOS has the Parties at 55:45.

52% back keeping immigration numbers the same or increasing. 45% have some concern about increasing population.


—The Age

'concern' about immigration numbers is rather deceptive isn't it? I'm concerned, doesn't mean i want it to stop.

[HBS Guy]

Vic Labor 53:47 so likely to win the election despite the best efforts of the Murdoch press.

[HBS Guy]

The Prime Minister’s personal approval rating has fallen into negative territory, with 44 per cent of voters dissatisfied and 41 per cent satisfied with his performance.

The coalition’s primary vote is back where it was a month ago at 36 per cent, lower than the last Newspoll of Mr Turnbull’s tenure, and it trails Labor 46 to 54, the poll published in The Australian on Sunday night shows.

The Greens’ primary vote has dropped to nine per cent, losing two points, while One Nation is still on six per cent.

Based on the latest poll, the government would lose up to 19 seats if an election was held today, not including Malcolm Turnbull’s former seat of Wentworth which suffered a dramatic 19 per cent swing away from the Liberals.

https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2018/10/29/scott-morrison-newspoll-phelps/

Leroy
#Newspoll TPP ALP 54 (+1) L/NP 46 (-1)
Primary L/NP 36 (-1) ALP 39 (+1) GRN 9 (-2) ON 6 (0) OTH 10

ON is on 6% so:
ALP 39
LNP 36
GRN 9
ONE 6
OTH 4

Haven’t shown the ± 1 etc, need a difference of 2.4% for any change to be significant. Because of the looooong run of polls I would say Labor is on 39±1. I HOPE the Greens are declining but they are likely 10±1 too—they will be an anchor on the Shorten Labot govt, always, as some say, wanting a full loaf and if they don’t get it they vote for no bread at all. I say: the Greens are neoconservatives like the Libs and oppose whatever their wealthy inner city base won’t like (carbon price etc) and block it pretending to be ideologically pure. Waste of space the Greens.

One wonders how that idiot YouLiar will spin this poll

[HBS Guy]

Ah “NewsPoll changes nothing much” yeah right!

[HBS Guy]

IPSOS Poll:

54:46

Apparently voters unsure about Labor’s negative gearing reforms.

[HBS Guy]

Essential:

Special envoy for Christmas @Leroy_Lynch

#Essential fed TPP ALP 53 (-1) L/NP 47 (+1)
Primary L/NP 37 (-1) ALP 36 (-3) GRN 11 (+1) ON 7 (+1) OTH 9 (+2)

Theoretically the drop in ALP PV would be statistically significant because greater than margin of error but their panels are not always random so I am not putting any faith in that, the drop in PV will wash out over the next two weeks.