Poll Tracking

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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby johnsmith » 15 Oct 2017, 21:49

HBS Guy wrote:Oh dear:

Le voyageur‏ @LeVoyageurOz 8m8 minutes ago More

No number of selfies
childish name calling
fake policy initiatives
union bashing
and media help
will save turnbull and his inept government

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:giggle :giggle :giggle
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 15 Oct 2017, 22:10

Yup, below Shorten in the approval stakes. Come back abbott :jump
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 15 Oct 2017, 22:26

TPP, PV steady:

Leroy @Leroy_Lynch

#Newspoll TPP L/NP 46 (0) ALP 54 (0)
Primary L/NP 36 (0) ALP 37 (-1) GRN 10 (+1) ON 9 (+1) OTH 8 (-1)http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll-malcolm-turnbull-coalition-lose-ground-to-bill-shorten/news-story/0f4353da7817a380cb538982827029b2 … ($) #auspol

9:04 PM - Oct 15, 2017
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 15 Oct 2017, 23:04

Betting market:

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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 29 Oct 2017, 21:42

ALP win 22nd (TWENTY-SECOND) consecutive Newspoll!
-ALP 54
-Libs 46
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/nationa ... 2f2afb7c70 … #auspol #Newspoll

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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby Bam » 30 Oct 2017, 09:33

A 54% 2PP for Labor would be a 4.4% swing.

With a uniform swing of that size, the government would lose 21 seats on the current boundaries. Labor would gain most of them but not all (Grey could fall to NXT and the Greens could gain Batman from Labor). Of course, uniform swings never happen - seats with margins of 20% could fall, seats with margins under 2% could be retained, and sometimes seats even go the other way.

The 2PP is unreliable due to two factors: the One Nation factor and the method of calculating preferences that Newspoll uses.

One Nation is picking up the protest vote and their voters do not give as strong a flow of preferences to the Coalition as one might expect. These preference flows are volatile and hard to predict.

Worse for the government is that Newspoll does not explicitly ask respondents to allocate preferences, but uses preferences flows from the previous election to calculate a 2PP figure. This method is not reliable when a significant swing is on. This is why the major pollsters did not predict the outcome of the 2015 Queensland state election. In that election, they used the preference flows from the previous election, which did not take into account the significant swing to Labor. These polls were out by 2% - the difference between a 5-seat to 10-seat Coalition majority and the actual result of a hung Parliament.

What this means for the Federal Newspoll is that the actual 2PP could be wider, 55-45 or so. However, it's not possible to make this call due to the volatility of One Nation's preferences. If it was 55-45, a uniform swing on the current boundaries would only deliver three additional seats.

The most important factor that affects predictions is that redistributions are currently underway in Queensland (0 seats), Victoria (+1 seat), South Australia (-1 seat), Tasmania (0 seats) and the ACT (+1 seat). A redistribution has recently been completed in the Northern Territory. This redistribution will favour Labor because the current malapportionment favours the Coalition. Labor could gain two or three notional seats after the redistribution. Labor will certainly gain a notional seat in Victoria and the ACT, and may gain one in Queensland. The Turnbull government will go into the next election needing to gain seats to retain a majority, and that's not a good position for a moribund government to be in.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 30 Oct 2017, 09:38

Great post Bam!

Could ON get a seat in the HoR in Queensland?
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby Bam » 30 Oct 2017, 10:42

HBS Guy wrote:Great post Bam!

Could ON get a seat in the HoR in Queensland?

I assume you mean Federally.

I don't think it is likely. The last time they were prominent was in 1998. They gained 11 seats in the Queensland parliament in the election held on 13 June 1998 with 23% of the vote, but no seats Federally in the 1998 Federal election (3 October) with 9% of the national vote. They gained one Senate seat in Queensland with 15% of the vote.

To win seats Federally, they would need high-profile candidates running in winnable seats. In 2013, the Palmer United Party was very prominent, but only Palmer himself won a seat - and that by a very small margin. I don't expect One Nation to do any better.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 30 Oct 2017, 18:08

No, I don’t think so either.
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 31 Oct 2017, 18:11

☠️Death of Poptimism @Leroy_Lynch
#Essential TPP ALP 54(+2) L/NP 46(-2)
Primary L/NP 36(-1) ALP 37(+1) GRN 10(+1) NXT 3(0) ON 7(-1) OTH 6(-1)http://www.essentialvision.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/Essential-Report_311017.pdf … #auspol
10:01 AM - Oct 31, 2017
1 1 Reply 1 1 Retweet 2 2 likes


http://www.essentialvision.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/Essential-Report_311017.pdf

Guardian article on the poll
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/oct/31/most-voters-believe-nbn-will-fail-to-meet-australias-needs-guardian-essential-poll

Newspoll 54:46 now Essential 54:46.

MUST be some way an election can be brought on?
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Re: Poll Tracking

Postby HBS Guy » 12 Nov 2017, 21:34

Oh dear :bgrin :bgrin :bgrin :bgrin :bgrin :bgrin :bgrin

Sky News Australia‏Verified account @SkyNewsAust
Follow Follow @SkyNewsAust More

#BREAKING: The latest newspoll has revealed that @TurnbullMalcolm's approval rating has dropped from 41 to 36 per cent. @AustralianLabor widened its lead over the coalition 55% - 45% in two party terms.


#NEWSPOLL @australian Primary Vote: Coalition 34 (-1), ALP 38 (+1), Greens 9 (-1), One Nation 10 (+1)
http://bit.ly/2zwUPS0


Don’t get too excited about 55:45 (tho nice to see :clap ) the approval rating is much more significant (statistically and politically.) This MUST strengthen the RWNJs to boot Malcolm and put abbott back as PM?

All turdful had to do really was run a reasonable government. He couldn’t do that. Crap Budgets, Robodebt, cutting pensions, now the Manus horror etc etc etc. Couldn’t even finish running out the NBN Labor had started, have now spent/committed $60Bn on a temporary network, biggest waste of taxpayers’ money ever, losing Lib support with every botched connection, failure to connect, lousy connection worse than the previous ADSL etc.
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