The beginning of the end for Gillard.

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Re: The beginning of the end for Gillard.

Postby Lefty » 02 Jul 2013, 08:12

Mark the Ballot has Labor in front http://marktheballot.blogspot.com.au/2013/07/weekly-aggregation-labor-in-front.html

Still very early yet and clearly this is a honeymoon bounce - will it be sustained? No point making that call with any certainty yet imo.

Possum argues.....

Elsewhere, Pollytics has an interesting post on the impact of uneven state swings. His conclusion is that a 5% swing to Labor in Queensland would deliver around 9 seats simply because so many Coalition held seats sit on relatively small margins. He argues that Queensland’s innate support for Kevin Rudd could see him win a poll with a national TPP of 51-49 in the Coalition’s favour.


http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2013/07/01/when-wholes-are-less-than-sums-of-the-parts/
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Re: The beginning of the end for Gillard.

Postby HBS Guy » 02 Jul 2013, 08:28

I saw Possum’s agrument. A fervent Ruddista, let us wait for another NewsPoll and Nielsen plus some more ER and Morgan.

Look at ER—a 2% transfer from Others to ALP—not even outside MoE!

Half or more of the change in Newspoll is Others going from 14 to 10%. I never believed that 14% Other!

I reckon another month would be good before we can say the polls have increased with statistical significance. Then the uptick has to last to the election.

Rudd made such a bad start, listing only what Gillard achieved as his Deputy, ignoring three years of huge reforms by JGPM, a raft of reforms Rudd couldn’t achieve!

He is now about to fly to Jakarta—frenetic activity that is Rudd’s substitute for getting things done.
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Re: The beginning of the end for Gillard.

Postby Lefty » 02 Jul 2013, 09:26

Tim Colebatch's argument...

But Abbott's problems are just as large. There is now a risk, albeit small, that he could lose the unloseable election. His judgment in coming weeks will have to be sharply attuned to the electorate, not to his camp followers.
It is normal for opposition leaders to trail prime ministers in popularity, but I cannot recall any opposition leader winning with his popularity at the level Abbott has now. Even Mark Latham in the 2004 campaign had 51 per cent approval from voters. Abbott was rating well below that when Rudd took over. The latest Newspoll found his support down to 35 per cent.
The reason is simple: he keeps rolling out the same old mantras, to the same rusted-on supporters, rather than trying to win the middle ground. His recent policy statements on industrial relations and northern Australia passed muster as sensible policies, but we need a lot more. What would the Coalition do to improve Australia's educational performance? Its hospitals? Public transport infrastructure? We either don't know, or for public transport, his answer is: nothing!



http://www.theage.com.au/comment/voterland-rougher-terrain-for-abbott-20130701-2p7dx.html#ixzz2Xpvqdr1O

I haven't heard Abbot's recent comments on industrial relations or northern Australia but I doubt that either of them would be sensible so I disagree with that bit. But I think that Colebatch has a point when he argues that Abbot is just preaching to his own rusted-ons, rather than trying to grab the middle ground where elections are won.

Abbot is presenting no credible plan whatsoever to take this country forward through the challenges it faces as the powerful forces that have worked so strongly in our favour now begin to peter out (as in the case of mining investment) or perhaps even begin to work in reverse (as in economic growth fuelled by massive house debt growth). He is presenting nothing but negative slogans.

Can they now turn to Turnbull? Seems doubtful - the central plank of their attack on the government is leadership instability, they would look like massive hippocrites.
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Re: The beginning of the end for Gillard.

Postby HBS Guy » 02 Jul 2013, 09:33

Fucking Age could have made same argument about Abbott during JG’s term as PM. But they had their regime change agenda—weaken ALP by helping promote Rudd then bag Rudd and promote a rival, etc.
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Re: The beginning of the end for Gillard.

Postby ele » 03 Jul 2013, 08:47

Monk would you really let an Abbot led government win rather than voting for a party led by Rudd? I thought you supported Labor principles.
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Re: The beginning of the end for Gillard.

Postby HBS Guy » 03 Jul 2013, 09:03

I do, but I can look further than the next election.

Having Abbott win and Rudd go—might not be that bad a bargain.
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Re: The beginning of the end for Gillard.

Postby Cherie » 04 Jul 2013, 00:34

HBS Guy wrote:I do, but I can look further than the next election.

Having Abbott win and Rudd go—might not be that bad a bargain.



l see I was right, your not a Labor man, you were a Gillard man, that is the saddest thing I have ever read. I am voting Labor and would have even under Gillard .I disliked her even more than you hated Rudd .
Honor to God.

Loyalty to the Country Woman's Association.
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Re: The beginning of the end for Gillard.

Postby HBS Guy » 04 Jul 2013, 00:47

I don’t hate Rudd.

I can see the train wreck when he has to be removed as PM again, assuming he wins the election.
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Re: The beginning of the end for Gillard.

Postby HBS Guy » 04 Jul 2013, 10:14

Rudd can’t wait to shit on Julia’s legacy:

http://www.afr.com/p/national/catholic_schools_get_special_deal_znCHYEiPtZ4xfjpal3pR4J

The National Catholic Education Commission is now seeking a second major concession from the government: the ability to control how money is distributed between its schools free of ministerial intervention.

If all states and territories agree to the Better Schools Plan, Catholic schools will receive about $3 billion extra over the next six years.

The funding will be based on state-based averages of the socioeconomic status of students attending systemic Catholic schools rather than a strict application of a new funding formula, which is designed to give more money to schools with students from poorer backgrounds.

The deal will blunt expectations by individual schools they would automatically receive their full funding allocation and will allow central authorities to redistribute resources and keep fees lower. Critics say it is a big departure from the plan promoted by federal Labor of a more transparent, equitable system based on individual need.

Victorian Premier Denis Napthine said he spoke directly to Mr Rudd and talks would resume between the parties. “As the Prime Minister said to me, Gonski is gone-ski,” Dr Napthine said.


This means the prestige Catholic schools will get the extra dough, the disadvantaged schools won’t see much extra money at all. Rudd will be happy, Julia’s legacy besmirched by him.
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