Australian economy

Discuss politics and current affairs here.

Hot topic: The scourge of negative gearing, Friends of the NBN and wrecking lives.  The economy and Poll tracking— all the polls. New! ELECTION 2016, Issues and Leaders

Special Feature 1: Peter Costello and our current deficits.
Special Feature 2: Dr Turnbull and the wrong NBN prescription
Special Feature 3: The Denigration of science, technology and education.
.
Forum rules
The rules for this board are in the Charter of Moderation. Politics is for serious discussion of politics, economics and current affairs.

Re: Australian economy

Postby Lefty » 15 Nov 2016, 06:07

HBS Guy wrote:Billbo on neoliberalism:

http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=34755#more-34755


Yes, and while this shitty system lumbers on, leaving millions cast aside we can expect more Brexit-type events and the election of more people like Trump. Capturing the vote of a disenfranchised population was what rocketed Hitler to power.
User avatar
Lefty
Bengal Tiger
 
Posts: 16389
Joined: 15 Nov 2009, 10:34

Re: Australian economy

Postby HBS Guy » 15 Nov 2016, 08:37

Yup, populists promising to fix everything. Inevitably fail. Trump is already walking back various commitments.

Then again, I think that like Bush/Cheney it will be Pence running the show in fact and he is a religious nutjob.

Then there are the appointments to the SCOTUS, longlasting these. I foresee the US going hugely backwards on things like gay marriage, contraception and abortion. That won’t help at all, of course.
Abbott & Co are going to cause the mother and father of all recessions—be prepared!
User avatar
HBS Guy
Tractors to Australia
 
Posts: 42592
Joined: 27 Oct 2009, 15:37

Re: Australian economy

Postby HBS Guy » 15 Nov 2016, 19:13

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/coin-flip-mysterious-rise-in-demand-for-cash-linked-to-economic-uncertainty-20161104-gsi8v1.html

Seems more coins and notes are needed.

Is it due to economic uncertainty. Maybe.

Could retirees be hoarding cash so as to not be hit with pension changes? BINGO!
Abbott & Co are going to cause the mother and father of all recessions—be prepared!
User avatar
HBS Guy
Tractors to Australia
 
Posts: 42592
Joined: 27 Oct 2009, 15:37

Re: Australian economy

Postby Lefty » 16 Nov 2016, 07:33

That's an interesting one, quite possible.
User avatar
Lefty
Bengal Tiger
 
Posts: 16389
Joined: 15 Nov 2009, 10:34

Re: Australian economy

Postby Lefty » 16 Nov 2016, 09:15

Jason Clare on free trade

The TPP is dead with the election of Trump but that is not all bad - the TPP would have sold Australians up the river on many things.

Free trade so-called is pointless if it guts and hollows out local industries, dumbs down and simplifies economies and leads to stagnating or falling living standards.
User avatar
Lefty
Bengal Tiger
 
Posts: 16389
Joined: 15 Nov 2009, 10:34

Re: Australian economy

Postby HBS Guy » 17 Nov 2016, 15:49

Image

Full time unemployment still trending down.
Abbott & Co are going to cause the mother and father of all recessions—be prepared!
User avatar
HBS Guy
Tractors to Australia
 
Posts: 42592
Joined: 27 Oct 2009, 15:37

Re: Australian economy

Postby HBS Guy » 18 Nov 2016, 05:20

We are on a real downward slide.

Full time employment trending down

Part time employment trending up

Casual work trending up.

Means income, security, ability to secure a mortgage all trending down. Means demand slows down leading to pressure on wages and hours worked which means pressure on demand. . .

Might as well say we are in a recession.
Abbott & Co are going to cause the mother and father of all recessions—be prepared!
User avatar
HBS Guy
Tractors to Australia
 
Posts: 42592
Joined: 27 Oct 2009, 15:37

Re: Australian economy

Postby Lefty » 18 Nov 2016, 06:43

Bilbo...

The combination of very weak pay outcomes and an increasing bias towards part-time and casualised work has major ramifications for the nation, where the household sector is now bogged down with record levels of indebtedness. A perfect storm is brewing.


Fucking useless do-nothing fibs, couldn't care less if the country recesses. They have zero interest in housing affordability, will happily continue/expand policies that favour investors both domestic and foreign, will gladly sell ordinary Australian's future out from under them. Not interested in jobs growth, not interested in anything important to your average Australian.

If the whole lot of them actually did get eaten in a zombie apocalypse, it would do us all a favour.
User avatar
Lefty
Bengal Tiger
 
Posts: 16389
Joined: 15 Nov 2009, 10:34

Re: Australian economy

Postby HBS Guy » 19 Nov 2016, 21:52

Abbott & Co are going to cause the mother and father of all recessions—be prepared!
User avatar
HBS Guy
Tractors to Australia
 
Posts: 42592
Joined: 27 Oct 2009, 15:37

Re: Australian economy

Postby Lefty » 21 Nov 2016, 06:53

Gittens is dribbling mindless waffle.

There have been some good things like the floating of the Aussie dollar (which Labor did) but in the main, our two and a half decade long run of growth has been based on the private sector being allowed to expand it's debt to income ratio. We are now at the point where it's getting difficult to make borrowing money cheaper and real growth is losing steam - a strong economy does not experience record low wage growth and ever increasing casualization of the labour force.

Look at today's interest rates - and ask yourself if ten years ago, you could have pictured us with such amazingly low rates.......and yet struggling to create inflation. Inflation would have been rampant white-hot ten years ago under these circumstances. The household sector has binged on debt until it's struggled to keep taking it on faster and needs hyper-low rates in order to keep doing so.

The total debts of our households have risen to 185 per cent of their annual disposable income. This is a lot higher than for other rich countries, but that's partly because unusual distortions in our tax system encourage borrowing for rental properties to be done by individuals rather than big companies.

More to the point, households have been building up buffers by using mortgage offset and redraw facilities to reduce their net debt by 17 per cent of the gross debt, in the process getting a collective 2½ years ahead of their scheduled repayments.


I use such a facility and the notion that huge numbers of households have several years worth of buffers is cock. I have spoken to an ex high level banker about this. On any given day, a survey taken will show large numbers of household ahead on their mortgages by quite a dramatic amount. However, over the course of the month, much of that money will be drawn down as living expenses - at least with redraw facilities, that big buffer is largely an illusion.
User avatar
Lefty
Bengal Tiger
 
Posts: 16389
Joined: 15 Nov 2009, 10:34

Re: Australian economy

Postby HBS Guy » 21 Nov 2016, 10:31

And another $20Bn blowout in our deficit. Our failed ad man pretending to be a Treasurer thinks this means the $50Bn in company tax cuts must proceed, funded by welfare cuts. Neoconservative crap:

The Coalition government is bracing for a significant deterioration in next month's budget update as weaker wages growth offsets any tax revenue boost from a surprise rebound in iron ore and coal export prices.

Treasurer Scott Morrison is rejecting suggestions that higher commodity export prices undermine the case for the government's proposed cuts to the 30 per cent company tax rate to help turn around the slump in national income growth.

He said he would not take the "reckless" option of assuming in his mid-year budget update - now scheduled for December 19 - that coal prices would remain elevated. That means further revenue downgrades are almost certain because of weaker wages growth.

The signalling comes as Deloitte Access Economics forecasts on Monday that another $24 billion will be added to the federal deficit over four years - pushing the forecast return to surplus well into next decade and adding fresh risks to Australia's AAA sovereign credit rating.

The Treasurer acknowledged the Deloitte forecast and redoubled his call for Labor to back the Coalition's planned company tax cuts to help fix the national "earnings problem".

"Lower wages growth and profits have an obvious impact on government revenues and the more recent movements in commodity prices doesn't mitigate that, even as significant as some of those movements have been," he told The Australian Financial Review.

Already there are signs iron ore is retreating from its highest price since 2014 - $US87.60 per tonne - posting its biggest weekly drop to $US74.8 per tonne. Spot prices for metallurgical coal, which have tripled since mid-year, cleared $US300 a tonne earlier this month for the first time since 2011, but have also weakened.



http://www.afr.com/news/policy/budget/looming-budget-crunch-boosts-need-for-tax-relief-says-morrison-20161120-gsta24#ixzz4Qb36oi9h

In addition the govt is borrowing $20Bn to give to NBN Co to finish its roll out of obsolete technologies that will never provide the revenue to pay back the loans.
Abbott & Co are going to cause the mother and father of all recessions—be prepared!
User avatar
HBS Guy
Tractors to Australia
 
Posts: 42592
Joined: 27 Oct 2009, 15:37

Re: Australian economy

Postby Lefty » 24 Nov 2016, 08:44

Restaurant trade claims disaster if visa 457 crackdown implemented

From the link...

The other issue is not enough Australians want to become chefs --whether it's the anti-social hours or lack of status, there's a market shortfall. That's the main reason for the proliferation of 457 visas for overseas workers.


To which I say: Bollocks!!!

There is no labour market test enforced for up to 80% of the visas granted now to see if an Australian can fill the role. This is all about the industry wanting endless access to cheap, union-free labour.

The overall Australian labour force is NOT short of local workers to fill roles, instead we have a huge and growing underemployment problem.

When elected Australian government continues to hand out work visas like candy long after any real skill shortages during the now-defunct roaring boom years have gone, ensuring that youth born here are kicked to the kerb, to unemployment and underemployment and does so in full knowledge of what it's actions mean for a growing, disaffected portion of the population, I say there is a word for it - treason!

As much as neo-liberalism says ther is no difference - you cannot separate human beings from their labour. The commodification of labour and all the ills that have now arisen are yet more symptoms of the appalling neo-liberal socio-economic outlook. It isn't the fault of people coming here to try and improve their lot in life, it's the fault of government - you do not just keep poring in a third of a million new people each year when you cannot provide for those already living here.

The delusion of the neo-liberal outlook all but guarantees that oxygen is being fed to extremists - watch for One Nation here to start capturing votes.
User avatar
Lefty
Bengal Tiger
 
Posts: 16389
Joined: 15 Nov 2009, 10:34

Re: Australian economy

Postby HBS Guy » 24 Nov 2016, 09:41

Yup, I expect Mr X and Greens to lose votes and One Notion to gain them, as long as the idiots in the Party can keep their act together.
Abbott & Co are going to cause the mother and father of all recessions—be prepared!
User avatar
HBS Guy
Tractors to Australia
 
Posts: 42592
Joined: 27 Oct 2009, 15:37

Re: Australian economy

Postby Lefty » 28 Nov 2016, 06:13

More oxygen for Australian Trump-ism......

The federal government has announced it will make it easier for foreigners to buy new apartments amid concerns of a looming glut that will drive down prices.

Treasurer Scott Morrison said the government will make changes to the foreign investment framework to allow foreign buyers to buy an off-the-plan dwelling that another foreign buyer has failed to settle as a new dwelling.

Previously, on-sale of a purchased off the plan apartment was regarded as a second hand sale, which is not open to foreign buyers. Foreign buyers can only buy new dwellings.

The move effectively opens up the pool of buyers who can soak a potential flood of apartments hitting the residential markets due to failed settlements.

"This change addresses industry concerns, and means property developers won't be left in the lurch when a foreign buyer pulls out of an off-the-plan purchase," Mr Morrison said in an announcement.


Read more: http://www.afr.com/real-estate/scott-mo ... z4REtT5soK
Follow us: @FinancialReview on Twitter | financialreview on Facebook


http://www.afr.com/real-estate/scott-morrison-eases-limits-on-foreign-buyers-as-apartment-glut-looms-20161124-gsxb9g

In our two largest cities - home to not that far short of half of Australia's population - our young people already cannot afford to house themselves. This ain't a joke. The government is moving to prevent any possibility of housing becoming affordable to Australians by making it easier for foreign speculators. This is the sort of thing that put house prices in Vancouver into the millions, far beyond the reach of 99% of Canadians living there and creating skyrocketing rental costs by engineering shortages of available rentals, while the poor barstards were surrounded by a sea of empty apartments, kept locked up for speculative reasons. The local, state and federal authorities in Canada have all moved recently to end this barstardized situation whereby both local and foreign speculators have grown ever richer by totally commoddifying the basic human need for shelter from the elements, which ultimately damages the very fabric of society.

But here in Oz, the fibs want to encourage it. They are poisonous traitors, with a total disdain for anyone who isn't well-off.

Their despicable abandonment of Australians who are locked into precarious part-time work and completely locked out of home ownership is just going to feed xenophobia and extremism.
User avatar
Lefty
Bengal Tiger
 
Posts: 16389
Joined: 15 Nov 2009, 10:34

Re: Australian economy

Postby HBS Guy » 28 Nov 2016, 06:31

They want to end the glut of apartments—end negative gearing and halve the capital gains tax exemption!

Encouraging foreign speculators to buy apartments—beyond evil!
Abbott & Co are going to cause the mother and father of all recessions—be prepared!
User avatar
HBS Guy
Tractors to Australia
 
Posts: 42592
Joined: 27 Oct 2009, 15:37

Re: Australian economy

Postby Lefty » 30 Nov 2016, 07:44

More Australian economy news that will feed oxygen to the Hansonites - recently redundant skilled Australian workers who have lost their jobs at the closure of the Ford engine plant cannot get similar work in their own home town because the roles have been given to visa 457's

To allow the use of a programme meant to supplement Australian workforces during the roaring boom times of a decade ago, to instead replace appropriately skilled Australian workers is beneath contempt. What kind of country boots it's own people to the kerb to wallow in unemployment while importing foreign workers to do the jobs?(whose fault it is generally not - they are just trying to improve their lot in life). This is neo-liberalism writ large - human labour is a commodity like any other. Human communities and lives are irrelivent in this equation.

If One Nation were to stand a candidate (a more charismatic-speaking one than Pauline herself) in Geelong, how much of the vote do you think they might capture after all this?

When Labor wins the next election, 457 should be slashed back to only what is truly necessary (doctors for rural areas maybe and a handful of things).
User avatar
Lefty
Bengal Tiger
 
Posts: 16389
Joined: 15 Nov 2009, 10:34

Re: Australian economy

Postby HBS Guy » 30 Nov 2016, 09:02

Beyond evil!
Abbott & Co are going to cause the mother and father of all recessions—be prepared!
User avatar
HBS Guy
Tractors to Australia
 
Posts: 42592
Joined: 27 Oct 2009, 15:37

Re: Australian economy

Postby HBS Guy » 30 Nov 2016, 10:31

Abbott & Co are going to cause the mother and father of all recessions—be prepared!
User avatar
HBS Guy
Tractors to Australia
 
Posts: 42592
Joined: 27 Oct 2009, 15:37

Re: Australian economy

Postby HBS Guy » 30 Nov 2016, 13:31

So the Tories got their ABCC Bill through the Senate, thanks to Messrs X & Hinch oh and the “worker’s Party” One Notion.

But pretty heavily amended so dunno how many extra construction site deaths it will cause as companies take shortcuts on safety again.
Abbott & Co are going to cause the mother and father of all recessions—be prepared!
User avatar
HBS Guy
Tractors to Australia
 
Posts: 42592
Joined: 27 Oct 2009, 15:37

Re: Australian economy

Postby HBS Guy » 30 Nov 2016, 14:05

Our educational ranking continues to drop. Obviously—we should have adopted Gonski!

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/wakeup-call-australian-students-fall-behind-kazakhstan-in-maths-and-science-rankings-20161129-gszvt1.html

Try having an innovative and agile with less and less good STEM graduates and a decrepit collection of obsolete broadband techs based on rotting copper!
Abbott & Co are going to cause the mother and father of all recessions—be prepared!
User avatar
HBS Guy
Tractors to Australia
 
Posts: 42592
Joined: 27 Oct 2009, 15:37

Re: Australian economy

Postby HBS Guy » 01 Dec 2016, 17:16

Australia at risk of negative GDP after business investment fall

The Australian economy is at risk of stagnating, or even shrinking, in the September quarter after official figures show another steep fall in business investment.



abc.net.au


Christ even new housing applications have fallen!
Abbott & Co are going to cause the mother and father of all recessions—be prepared!
User avatar
HBS Guy
Tractors to Australia
 
Posts: 42592
Joined: 27 Oct 2009, 15:37

Re: Australian economy

Postby Lefty » 02 Dec 2016, 06:02

HBS Guy wrote:
Australia at risk of negative GDP after business investment fall

The Australian economy is at risk of stagnating, or even shrinking, in the September quarter after official figures show another steep fall in business investment.



abc.net.au


Christ even new housing applications have fallen!


Yep, and useless fucking Malcom sits on his useless fucking hands. The RBA are reluctant to cut further for fears of just further inflating the huge Sydney and Melbourne housing bubbles. And how much more stimulus is left in monetary policy anyway? It's all but spent. Only fiscal stimulus can help now and Malcom won't be giving that so I guess there's a decent chance he'll be presiding over a recession.
User avatar
Lefty
Bengal Tiger
 
Posts: 16389
Joined: 15 Nov 2009, 10:34

Re: Australian economy

Postby Lefty » 02 Dec 2016, 06:27

User avatar
Lefty
Bengal Tiger
 
Posts: 16389
Joined: 15 Nov 2009, 10:34

Re: Australian economy

Postby HBS Guy » 02 Dec 2016, 07:15

Bastards!
Abbott & Co are going to cause the mother and father of all recessions—be prepared!
User avatar
HBS Guy
Tractors to Australia
 
Posts: 42592
Joined: 27 Oct 2009, 15:37

Re: Australian economy

Postby HBS Guy » 02 Dec 2016, 07:40

The fat tub of blubber G Chrisensen said he would cross the floor to ensure a RC into the banks:

Tony Burke ✔ @Tony_Burke
BREAKING: Royal Commission into Banks defeated in Reps 74-75 with @GChristensenMP voting no.#auspol

6:23 PM - 1 Dec 2016


All talk no walk. (Can’t say “no guts” about Christensen :OMG )

I guess this is why Joyce was talking about Christensen being a Cabinet Minister soon.
Abbott & Co are going to cause the mother and father of all recessions—be prepared!
User avatar
HBS Guy
Tractors to Australia
 
Posts: 42592
Joined: 27 Oct 2009, 15:37

PreviousNext

Return to Politics

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 8 guests