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Re: Australian economy

Postby HBS Guy » 06 Aug 2015, 12:10

A little bit of honesty, finally.

“Despite strong job creation” (yeah, right!) unemployment has risen to 6.3%. Participation rate rose, perhaps partly due to pressure on unemployed to apply 20 jobs a week?

So, WTF has the 2 cuts in the cash rates by the RBA achieved exactly? Made the housing crash beginning to happen worse that it need have been.

May was adjusted up to 6.1% and March to 6.0%, all up .1%.
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Re: Australian economy

Postby HBS Guy » 01 Sep 2015, 16:37

Foreign debt spiralling!

Australia's current account deficit blows out by 41 per cent while net debt approaches $1 trillion

e position has collapsed dramatically, with the June quarter current account deficit blowing out 41 per cent to $19 billion.

The market had been expecting a deficit to widen from the previous quarter's $13.5 billion, but the $5.5 billion deterioration was well beyond the most pessimistic forecast.

The result leaves Australia's net foreign debt hovering just below $1 trillion.

Net foreign debt now stands at $976 billion.


http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-09-01/a ... on/6740328

What a bunch of incompetent idiots the shambles is!
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Re: Australian economy

Postby HBS Guy » 02 Sep 2015, 12:11

GDP growth came in at .2%, reducing the annual rate to 2%—WAY below trend!

In nominal terms — with the effects of inflation excluded — GDP growth was 1.8 per cent, the weakest figure since 1962.

Mining production slipped 3 per cent in the latest quarter, while net exports detracted 0.6 per cent from GDP growth.

The Australian dollar twice dipped briefly below 70 US cents in the hours before the data was released, but fell to 69.86 US cents immediately after the ABS data was published.

It was the first time the currency had fallen to that level since 2009.


http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-09-02/d ... es/6743298

If the shambles hadn’t interfered in the RET. . .

If the shambles handn’t stuffed up the NBN. . . just imagine if rollout of FTTH had been ramped up like was happening. The wasted opportunity makes you weep.

If the shambles hadn’t cut so many payments and services to the lowest level for a long time. . .of course, this idiocy reduced demand in the economy. Best thing to do now—boost NewStart by $100/week, that will HUGELY boost demand in the economy. Pensions could receive an out of sequence boost, say $50/week for married pensioner couples. Make it easier for age couples to work, should be able to work and earn up to $20K without losing pension or paying tax. Pensioner couple in house a bit too big could let out a room or two to another pensioner couple, reducing pressure on house prices.

If the shambles hadn’t destroyed consumer and business confidence with the 2014 Budget. . .

If the shambles weren’t spending $3Bn pa making life hell for ASs on Manus/Nauru. . .

If the shambles hadn’t destroyed the car industry and had given the subs to the ASC. . .

Treasonous scum!

Jobless figures next, oh boy. 6.6% anyone?
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Re: Australian economy

Postby HBS Guy » 02 Sep 2015, 15:15

The Kouk having a field day on twitter:

GDP result: Westpac say "surprised on low side" CBA say "weak" and "well below trend" Hockey says: solid and on track— Stephen Koukoulas (@TheKouk) September 2, 2015

//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

CBA note: Nominal GDP "lowest annual growth since 1961-62"— Stephen Koukoulas (@TheKouk) September 2, 2015


//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

Remember when Joe used to say ‘We don’t want to end up like Greece’?

Q2 GDP Australia 0.2% Cyprus 0.5% Lithuania 0.6% UK 0.7% Greece, Slovakia, Estonia 0.8% Czech, Poland 0.9% Spain, Sweden 1.0% Latvia 1.2%— Stephen Koukoulas (@TheKouk) September 2, 2015


//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js


Yes, the mining boom is over. Iron ore might recover, coal won’t. But it was known that the mining boom would end! That is what renewable energy and the NBN were for, new jobs and investment! Not driving off Holden and Toyota would have been good: Holden in particular would have been exporting their heads off with the low $A, instead they are winding down to closure. Libs didn’t want to give them $50m to keep going, yet they are allowing the top 10% of income earners to claim like $50Bn a year just in superannuation tax exemptions plus not tightening up the FBT, keeping negative gearing, CGT exemptions and so on. And paying private training organisations who deliver stuff all in good training! And so on. Incompetent, treasonous scum!
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Re: Australian economy

Postby HBS Guy » 03 Sep 2015, 21:57

There are more worrying signs for the Australian economy, with official data showing retail sales went backwards in July.

The new figures have been released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, just a day after it revealed Australia's economy grew in the second quarter at its slowest pace in more than two years.

Today's data shows retail turnover fell by 0.1 per cent to $24.3 billion in July.

The contraction in sales was in strong contrast to the revised 0.6-per cent growth posted in June, helped by the Federal Government's budget stimulus measures.

Citi economist Josh Williamson described the result as the worst quarterly start to retail trade in three years.

"The Government's budget stimulus to small business was short-lived," Mr Williamson said.

"As we expected, the accelerated depreciation policy was just an end-of-year tax benefit with little real economic value.


http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-09-03/c ... s-retail...

Complete morons—they should have given those on NewStart a once–only bonus plus a small permanent increase in the dole. THAT would have boosted retail and services!

Long depression here we come!
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Re: Australian economy

Postby ele » 04 Sep 2015, 12:06

Yep, read somewhere the only reason the growth was positive was government spending on defence. ... I think community spending based on dole and pension increases would have been better.
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Re: Australian economy

Postby HBS Guy » 04 Sep 2015, 14:10

If you are retired on $2m a year income from super (and think of all the huge tax concessions went into that fund!) you pay no income tax. If you retire on the pension and work part time—you pay tax and lose pension. Since the retirement of the Boomers is such a big problem—FFS encourage them to work. Simplify the pension scheme, boost pensions and NewStart, tackle the $60Bn a year rorts, run out FTTH and encourage renewable energy and bingo! economy takes off!
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Re: Australian economy

Postby HBS Guy » 10 Sep 2015, 12:16

Unemployment eased to 6.2% from 6.3%:

AUGUST KEY POINTS


TREND ESTIMATES (MONTHLY CHANGE)
Employment increased to 11,765,400.
Unemployment increased to 778,400.
Unemployment rate remained steady at 6.2% from a revised July 2015 estimate.
Participation rate increased 0.1 pts to 65.0%.
Monthly hours worked in all jobs increased 0.7 million hours to 1,625.6 million hours.


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES (MONTHLY CHANGE)
Employment increased 17,400 to 11,775,800. Full-time employment increased 11,500 to 8,141,000 and part-time employment increased 5,900 to 3,634,800.
Unemployment decreased 14,400 to 781,100. The number of unemployed persons looking for full-time work decreased 3,500 to 561,400 and the number of unemployed persons only looking for part-time work decreased 11,000 to 219,700.
Unemployment rate decreased 0.1 pts to 6.2%.
Participation rate decreased 0.1 pts to 65.0%.
Monthly hours worked in all jobs decreased 0.6 million hours to 1,623.8 million hours.


LABOUR UNDERUTILISATION (QUARTERLY CHANGE)
Trend estimates : The labour force underutilisation rate decreased to 14.3%.
Seasonally adjusted estimates: The labour force underutilisation rate remained steady at 14.3%. The male labour force underutilisation rate increased less than 0.1 pts to 12.4%. The female labour force underutilisation rate decreased 0.1 pts to 16.6%.


http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf ... enDocument

Maybe there is some increase in employment in the run up to Christmass? I cannot believe unemployment is only 6.2%, not with mining and the car makers both running down the number of workers employed and new “For Lease” signs popping up every week. One stall at the Adelaide Central Market has now been boarded up for some months, no new vendor wanting it, same with a second stall.

Maybe the Green Army, Work for the Dole take those people off the unemployment rolls?

I do not believe 6.2% is the real level of unemployment. Morgan reckons it is closer to 9% IIRC, not that I place much weight on what Morgan says.
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Re: Australian economy

Postby HBS Guy » 28 Oct 2015, 11:05

Very low inflation. To be expected with a sluggish economy and sluggish wage growth and a low dollar. Last quarter inflation was .5%, under expectations, giving a figure of 1.5% inflation for the year.

Deflation takes a step closer.

Next month the growth figures come out. I expect the figure to be negative or no growth either way.
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Re: Australian economy

Postby HBS Guy » 14 Nov 2015, 21:34

John Quigging on how NZ is falling further behind:

http://insidestory.org.au/how-new-zeala ... her-behind

Worth reading. Austerity is not the answer.
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Re: Australian economy

Postby HBS Guy » 27 Nov 2015, 14:53

20% slide in CAPEX this year, more next. Biggest component is mining but manufacturing and construction CAPEX also sliding.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-econ ... l8uym.html

Those 2 interest rate cuts the RBA made have achieved nothing: this was predictable, monetary policy is a much better brake than accelerator.

Last employment figures not reliable (artifact of the sampling) but seems some temporary Christmass related jobs dropped unemployment a tad but trend is still 6.1%. Dunno why it isn’t higher, maybe less 457 visa workers employed since the mining downturn? I am sure the unemployment rate is closer to 7 than to 6%. We shall see.
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Re: Australian economy

Postby HBS Guy » 04 Dec 2015, 07:07

Sep quarter GDP rose .9% for an annualised 2.5% growth. Not enough to give jobs to all who want one so less income tax more NewStart payments.
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Re: Australian economy

Postby HBS Guy » 04 Dec 2015, 07:51

A post from OzPol:

. . .export data you will find that it is very volatile at the moment. For instance, last quarter was quite poor. . .

Even looking at GDP growth over the last few years it too is quite volatile. Pretty much says that ol' Aussie suffers while everyone else does and any thoughts that we can stand alone for an extended period is a myth. The major trading blocks are showing subdued growth so we can expect pretty much the same. That's better than a contraction.

Other data has emerged from the accounts. The decline in disposable income is a concern [My emphasis]. This is the inevitable effect of austerity. This is the sixth successive quarter where wages are falling below GDP growth. Also the effect of Lib economic policy, austerity.National savings are also down over the last year as people dip into their savings to maintain lifestyles in the face of declining incomes. Expect more of this until the decade and a half long fall in productivity is turned around. Multi factor productivity by the way is now well and truly below the rate of inflation.Labor productivity is increasing, and normally would be rewarded with higher wages.

It's hard to get too excited with a small decline in unemployment. As real wages fall employment will grow as demand for labour increases with falling prices. Not sure I believe that.Unfortunately, the employment growth has occurred only at the expense of the declining wages of the rest of the workforce. We don’t really know what unemployment is doing, ABS surveys are unreliable these days.

The accounts over the last year just pretty well show a similar pattern to the last few and that is sluggish growth below trend, falling living standards but not quite a recession.


Well, I think we are in a recessionL unemployment high, growth low, wages stagnant and living standards falling. At some stage people will stop using savings to prop up their lifestyles.


Remarks in blue are my comments.
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Re: Australian economy

Postby HBS Guy » 19 Dec 2015, 06:05

Andrew Leigh on tax transparency:

One of Bradbury’s award-winning reforms was tax transparency – laws that required the tax office to report the tax paid by firms with total income above $100 million. The Liberals didn’t like the change, and voted against it at the time. After winning government, they set about trying to repeal it – first by warning of kidnap risk, and then by suggesting that it might embarrass some firms if the public knew how little tax they paid.

Farcically, the government said that it wouldn’t pass its own multinational tax package unless the parliament agreed to wind back secrecy. In effect, Scott Morrison was holding a gun to his own head, but the Greens Party fell for it. On the last day of parliament for 2015, the Greens Party agreed to amendments that kept two in three private companies out of the tax transparency net.

This week’s release of tax transparency data has shown the value of letting the sunlight in. The 1300 economic groups covered by the report had a combined taxable income of $170 billion, and contributed $40 billion in tax towards funding Australia’s schools, hospitals and roads.

Worryingly however, the tax office report also reveals that one in four of these companies paid no tax despite earning over $100 million in revenue. In the energy and resources sector 57 per cent of multinational firms paid no tax, while in the banking and financial sector the figure was 45 per cent. The companies concerned will no doubt want to explain these figures further to their customers and the Australian community.

Tax transparency matters because without it, we have no way of knowing if big companies are paying their fair share. There are plenty that do, and their contribution deserves acknowledgement.


http://www.andrewleigh.com/putting_the_spotlight_on_company_tax_dodgers_business_spectator

Damn Greens, did a dirty deal that disgusted even some of its own Senators, to protect the Green’s wealthy, inner city base from having to disclose tax payments.
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Re: Australian economy

Postby HBS Guy » 28 Dec 2015, 10:07

Tax transparency poses big questions:

http://www.smh.com.au/comment/companies ... lum48.html

Sorry, you really have to read the whole article. Very worth reading!

And remember the Greens, acting to protect their wealthy inner city base, did a sellout deal with the other neocon Party the Libs to protect private companies under a certain level from having to disclose their tax paid.

The Greens are no longer an environmental or a left–progressive Party but a conservative, neocon one. They just use a couple of “progressive”policies as a figleaf, marriage equality and Euthanasia.
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Re: Australian economy

Postby HBS Guy » 16 Jan 2016, 15:22

With recession a strong chance of occurring this year and a bunch of incompetent, useless hacks at the helm it is reassuring, not, to read:

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/ ... m6j41.html
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Re: Australian economy

Postby HBS Guy » 18 Jan 2016, 21:25

Qld Labor govt not looking backwards:

A Queensland government-owned power company has installed the country’s first solar battery storage system from Tesla as it begins a year-long trial into how it can reward consumers who cut their reliance on the electricity grid.

Energex, which has installed a Tesla Powerwall and another storage system from Californian company Sunverge at its Brisbane training facility, will collect data to work out how to integrate solar batteries into the network with financial incentives for customers.


http://www.theguardian.com/environment/ ... olar-trial

Yeah, test it out, get Qlders to sign up and Tesla might set up its Aust operation in Qld.
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Re: Australian economy

Postby HBS Guy » 18 Jan 2016, 21:56

The Kouk on risks to the economy, for what it is worth:

http://www.theguardian.com/business/201 ... are_btn_tw
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Re: Australian economy

Postby HBS Guy » 24 Jan 2016, 11:34

If the UK Tories can get Google to pay their tax why can’t the incompetents hacks and grubs making up what is laughingly called a government here do it? And a lot more besides too!

http://www.smh.com.au/business/world-bu ... mcgzh.html

I guess it goes against the neocon ideology.
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Re: Australian economy

Postby HBS Guy » 24 Jan 2016, 11:45

Why we won’t have a recession this year:

http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-econ ... mbjcv.html


Not quite sure I believe him. We have no manufacturing industry left of any significance so our low dollar might help miners and farmers but neither employ huge numbers of people, mostly agribusiness these days. Against that imports will rise in price and we import nearly every fucking thing!

Petrol is low and provides a bit of extra money but with low confidence this money gets saved not spent.

We do get a bit more tourism from the low dollar.
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Re: Australian economy

Postby HBS Guy » 03 Feb 2016, 23:45

Looks like the increase in the GST is off the menu. Now what will Morriscum do?

Just listened to Tony Delroy interview Peter Martin, economics editor for the Age. A couple of points he made, relating to the difficulty of paying compensation:

1. Self funded retirees don’t pay tax—didn’t exist in 2000

2. The tax free threshold is three times what it was in 2000

Lib back benchers are solidly against increasing the GST, fearing the Labor scare campaign.

Looks like more money will be removed from the over generous and rapidly increasing super tax exemptions. Make wealthy fucking retirees pay income tax is also overdue!

Guess Turnbull is lacking a backbone.
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Re: Australian economy

Postby HBS Guy » 04 Feb 2016, 07:12

OK a link today to support my post of yesterday:

James Massola and Mark Kenny on how Turnbull is facing a backbench revolt over GST.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-turnbull-scott-morrison-face-backbench-backlash-if-liberals-hike-gst-20160203-gmkmvr.html

Looks like the tax exemption on superannuation that benefits the ultra rich mostly will be further wound back. That is about time!

Also:
Peter Martin says forget about GST and fix what’s broken.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/ ... mkwpt.html

And more on the subject from Malcolm Maiden.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/comment- ... mkd7e.html

David Tyler on Scott Morrison’s ego and personality in his job as Treasurer. It’s hardly an endorsement.
https://independentaustralia.net/politi ... eople,8637

Gareth Hutchens sheets to blame for fiscal deficit blowout largely at the feet of the federal government. Oh, and it’s mainly a revenue issue.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/australi ... mklh3.html


http://pbxmastragics.com/2016/02/01/the ... ent-222645
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Re: Australian economy

Postby HBS Guy » 11 Feb 2016, 20:55

Tell us something we didn’t know.

http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politi ... mrpvw.html


Yeah, how surprising, not.
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Re: Australian economy

Postby HBS Guy » 18 Feb 2016, 12:28

ABS has unemployment back up to 6%.

No idea how reliable any of this crap is, sorry.

Not sure of the accuracy of this PBX statement either, but have had similar thoughts:

Of course people on ‘work for the dole’ programs are not counted as unemployed as they have an hour of work paid or unpaid in the survey period. Those programs don’t operate in Dec & Jan potentially s[k]ewing those figures



Guardian:
The unemployment rate has jumped to 6%, a rise that was not predicted by economists.

The total number of people with jobs fell by 7,900 in the month, according to statistics released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday. The number of people with jobs had been expected to increase by 15,000.

Full-time employment fell by 40,600, while the number of part-time jobs was up by 32,700.

The participation rate, which refers to the number of people either employed or actively looking for work, was steady at 65.2%.

Economists had predicted the jobless rate would stay at 5.8% but it instead rose to its highest level since September.

The figures came as a think tank said Australia was unlikely to face a recession in 2016 but weak national income poses risks to the economy.


http://www.theguardian.com/business/201 ... limbs-to-6

I think there will be a recession, the idiot Libs will scare the electorate and the austerity measures will do the rest.

This idiot govt is resembling the Newman catastrophe. A heap a small grants to various community groups have been cut. One of these is Breastfeeding Australia, staffed by volunteers. A valuable service helping the new generation start off in the best possible way, gone! Can you spell S T U P I D ? the amount is meaningless in the context of the Budget and will make no difference at all to the Budget/economy but an efficient, useful and in–demand service is gone.
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Re: Australian economy

Postby HBS Guy » 22 Feb 2016, 09:59

Ross Gittins on tax reform.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-econ ... mz59k.html

VERY worth reading if you are confused or unsure about what is proposed by either side and the ramifications of the various claims.
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