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Re: Australian economy

Postby HBS Guy » 06 May 2015, 10:20

Our Treasurer substitute, Mr Hokey, had this to bleat about the cut in interest rates:

The Treasurer called on the Australian people to take advantage of the low rates and borrow more money.

"Whether you be a household or a small business, now is the time to have a go, to borrow some money and to invest, invest in the things that help to create jobs," Mr Hockey said


(ABC website)

No you fat moron! The cut was designed to stimulate spending and so the economy. It won’t do that, apart from stoking the Sydney housing market a bit more, because YOU have killed confidence and so demand in the economy. More trouble will be caused by this and the last rate cut as inevitably rates will go up again and those who borrowed at the low low rates will go into mortgage stress when the rates climb again.

Ad hoc policy making by incompetents in the RBA, Treasury and the shambles.
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Re: Australian economy

Postby HBS Guy » 07 May 2015, 13:09

Unemployment slides up to 6.2% while participation rate stays constant.

Wish I knew how accurate those figures are! Last months figures showed 38,000 mostly fulltime jobs were created—where? Today there was discussion about job creation and I was just shaking my head. Consumer & business confidence–down, mining–down, motor car makers–no way they would be hiring. House construction maybe?
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Re: Australian economy

Postby HBS Guy » 09 May 2015, 13:30

The economy of different states compared:

http://www.smh.com.au/business/comment- ... gx1f0.html
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Re: Australian economy

Postby HBS Guy » 15 May 2015, 08:54

The RBA must be so proud, their idiotic last 2 cuts for naught as $A climbs despite iron ore prices slumping again, back down to $60.

Should have left interest rates alone, idiots!
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Re: Australian economy

Postby HBS Guy » 19 May 2015, 13:34

Six billion dollars in investment in wind and solar power will be lost as a result of a compromise deal on the renewable energy target, energy market analysts say.

Bloomberg New Energy Finance says investment in Australian projects will fall from an expected $20.6 billion by 2020 to $14.7 billion after the Abbott government and Labor reached a deal to reduce the target.

Monday's agreement, which came after more than 12 months of political gridlock, will slash the original large-scale target of 41,000 gigawatt hours of annual renewable energy production by 2020 to 33,000 gigawatt hours.

Clean Energy Council chief executive Kane Thornton said the expected drop in projects is "what we've had to accept in order to resolve this situation".

"The industry was entirely frozen. There was no new investment if the situation continued,"


http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/ ... h4ffd.html

The Greens played (and I mean play) their usual holier than thou useless part, playing (that word again) to their base. Hard negotiating by Labor saw this compromise scheme save something of the RET. But this is Lib stupidity to anything progressive. Renewable energy is cheaper than coal even without the Carbon Price. I guess Capt Idiot just wants to keep fossil fuels going even if they have had their day!

The advent of the Tesla Power Wall is going to make a huge difference, further stranding fossil fuel generators, as are the improvements to solar cells tripling their efficiency and decreasing their costs and the continual improvements in energy efficiency of lighting and appliances: the 12W LED light in my lounge gives more light and a lot less heat than the two 60W incandescent and even fluorescent globes in the old light fixture.
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Re: Australian economy

Postby HBS Guy » 19 May 2015, 18:33

Effects and causes of low interest rates here and worldwide:

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/art ... gb&modapt=
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Re: Australian economy

Postby HBS Guy » 28 May 2015, 19:25

The pisspoor capex revealed today has UBS dropping the “R” word:

http://www.businessinsider.com.au/ubs-j ... ook-2015-5

I have tipped recession shortly after the shambles was elected and started displaying their startling incompetence. Now—the certainty of recession is a matter of public debate.

Complete and utter morons, let ideology over rule common sense! If they hadn’t;

1. killed/weakened/stalled the RET, and;
2. killed/delayed the NBN, the real one
3. trash talked the economy
4. cut severely the infrastructure program started under Labor
5. rescinded the carbon price and mining tax
6. cut the CSIRO, BuMet, dismantled the Clean Energy bodies Labor set up, denigrated science & technology
7. delivered a harsh, unfair Budget in 2014

They would now be much better off. They did this, as I said before, out of ideology and the apelike propensity of monkey to wreck.

I hope they suffer a catastrophic defeat in 2016 and that enquiries into their idiocy be instituted expeditiously, wish there was a way they could be sued individually! This is willful damage being inflicted on the economy, on the people!
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Re: Australian economy

Postby HBS Guy » 28 May 2015, 20:23

More details re Capex:

Capex: Business investment plans at 'recessionary' levels

The Australian dollar has fallen as economists warn that business investment plans are at "recessionary" levels and may force the RBA to cut rates further.

The ABS estimates that capital expenditure (capex) fell 4.4 per cent in the first quarter of 2015 to $35.9 billion.

Plant and equipment investment was down 0.5 per cent in the March quarter while spending on buildings and structures was down 6.5 per cent.

The key second estimate for next financial year's investment plans is $104 billion, which is 1.4 per cent higher than the initial estimate, but a whopping 25 per cent lower than the equivalent estimate for this financial year's capex. [ My emphasis]


http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-05-28/c ... er/6503522

NOTHING cheery there. This is not Labor’s fault, it is as my previous post showed the handywork of the present government.

That comment re the RBA having to cut rates further. Pointless—monetary policy is not an accelerator. We need fiscal policy to step up to the plate. Stop fuck around with the MSM Turnbull and get NBN Co to roll out FTTH at the speed of light. Stop fuck around with the RET McFarlane and increase it, boost CSIRO, BuMet etc funding. Stop fuck waffling Truss, start rolling out the full Labor infrastructure program and so on and so fuck on!
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Re: Australian economy

Postby HBS Guy » 30 May 2015, 05:08

Great article by Andrew Leigh on inequality:

http://insidestory.org.au/welfare-myths ... ck-of-life
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Re: Australian economy

Postby Lefty » 30 May 2015, 07:18

HBS Guy wrote:More details re Capex:

Capex: Business investment plans at 'recessionary' levels

The Australian dollar has fallen as economists warn that business investment plans are at "recessionary" levels and may force the RBA to cut rates further.

The ABS estimates that capital expenditure (capex) fell 4.4 per cent in the first quarter of 2015 to $35.9 billion.

Plant and equipment investment was down 0.5 per cent in the March quarter while spending on buildings and structures was down 6.5 per cent.

The key second estimate for next financial year's investment plans is $104 billion, which is 1.4 per cent higher than the initial estimate, but a whopping 25 per cent lower than the equivalent estimate for this financial year's capex. [ My emphasis]


http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-05-28/c ... er/6503522

NOTHING cheery there. This is not Labor’s fault, it is as my previous post showed the handywork of the present government.

That comment re the RBA having to cut rates further. Pointless—monetary policy is not an accelerator. We need fiscal policy to step up to the plate. Stop fuck around with the MSM Turnbull and get NBN Co to roll out FTTH at the speed of light. Stop fuck around with the RET McFarlane and increase it, boost CSIRO, BuMet etc funding. Stop fuck waffling Truss, start rolling out the full Labor infrastructure program and so on and so fuck on!


Started posting about this yesterday morning, computer crashed while typing. No, it isn't looking crash hot at present. I won't say that a recession is baked in just yet - but if useless fuck Hockey and Abbot don't pull their fingers out then we will have one!

We have staked our entire economy on digging holes and selling houses to each other at ever high prices - that is, ever growing the stock of private sector debt. Now we don't need the amount of holes we have already dug and the price of the dirt coming from them has been knocked for six. Half of the revenue goes straight to foreigners anyway. The RBA have slashed ther rate of interest almost as low as it's possible to go to try to get us to keep going deeper into debt for houses (a great deal of which is simply the same houses recycled rapidly at ever-higher cost until our young people can't afford to house themselves anymore) because that's about all we have left. Our private sector can't keep taking on more and more debt at an accelerating rate and the uber-low interest rates are just kicking the fuck out of people trying to live off savings anyway.

I am going to advance the argument that our economic model is probably broken but we will probably have to suffer before anything will ever be done about it.
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Re: Australian economy

Postby HBS Guy » 30 May 2015, 08:04

It is not looking good. We went into the GFC with high levels of private debt thanks to the real estate boom 2001-7. That meant the public sector has to do the lifting for now. Instead Abbott & Hockey cut Labor’s infrastructure program, gut the FTTH rollout.

Our remarkable 24 years of uninterrupted growth is about to come to an end.
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Re: Australian economy

Postby Lefty » 01 Jun 2015, 13:04

Bilbo - Australia headed for recession

What a time to have utter incompetents like Joe and Tone "safegaurding" our country's prosperity :b
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Re: Australian economy

Postby HBS Guy » 01 Jun 2015, 13:47

I predicted this when the shambles were still the Opposition.

Gillard & Swan tried to get a surplus, stopped that due to revenue just failing to meet forecasts and the unemployment level rising. This mob didn’t learn from that, are still trying to cut spending tho handing out a bit of pork to “Tony’s Tradies” and still giving more to the upper 10% who do not need it.

Not only will there be a recession, possibly deflation (inflation is like 1.3% ATM!) short term but a bit more medium term we are going to hurt economically, especially in exports of services, because monkey had to wreck a Labor initiative, the FTTH NBN. Howard wrecked chances of superfast, rock-solid broadband by his STUPID privatisation of Telstra as an integrated wholesale and retial monopoly. He just had dollar sign in his eyes, more $$$ to buy votes and reqard the demographics that voted for him.
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Re: Australian economy

Postby HBS Guy » 01 Jun 2015, 13:53

Ha! On Twitter some Lib troll (or paid staffer. . .) was tweeting about $20K tax cuts. Two or three times I took him on, that is was $20K cut to income, at company tax rates a $6K tax cut that they would have had anyway and net benefit more like $1K. Did that 2-3 times and the poster retreated! Another notch on my gu, errrr keyboard :bgrin

Real problem with the $20K—it is not backed by any single further measure in the Budget which as I said in the previous post was contractionary over all. If I was still in business I would be putting money under my mattress, not rushing out to spend!

It is the sort of thing a retarded orang utan might think up.
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Re: Australian economy

Postby HBS Guy » 01 Jun 2015, 18:43

The Kouk, coming up this week:

It’s a big week for economic data and events.

We are likely to see the RBA hold the cash rate at 2.0 per cent, annual GDP growth weaken to just 2 per cent, annual inflation to come in at around 2 per cent, building approvals drop 2 per cent and annual growth in house prices to jump to 9 per cent.

These indicators are not good news on the economy. 2 per cent GDP growth is poor, inflation near 2 per cent is too low and the house price imbalance remains a bigger threat to the long run well being of the Australian economy than any weakness in commodity prices or slowing in the Chinese economy.


http://thekouk.com/blog/ahead-this-week ... onomy.html
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Re: Australian economy

Postby HBS Guy » 01 Jun 2015, 18:55

From Lefty’s link:

The first test of the Fiscal Statement estimates came yesterday with the ABS Private Investment data. The 2014-15 estimates are looking decidedly shaky. But the 2015-16 estimates are now looking to be about Planet Mars, given the expected spending plans signalled by private firms in that year.

The ABS data shows that for the March-quarter 2015 (real and seasonally-adjusted):

Total new capital expenditure fell 4.4 per cent for the quarter and 5.3 per cent on the year to March 2015.
Investment in Buildings and structures fell 6.5 per cent for the quarter and 9.5 per cent on the year to March 2015.
Investment in Equipment, plant and machinery fell 0.5 per cent for the quarter but rose by 3.5 per cent on the year to March 2015.
Mining investment fell 4.1 per cent for the quarter and 13.7 per cent on the year to March 2015.
Manufacturing investment fell 9.4 per cent for the quarter and 8.7 per cent on the year to March 2015.
Non-Mining investment fell by 4.8 per cent for the quarter but rose by 5.4 per cent on the year to March 2015.
But the real news from the data is the forward-looking expenditure plans signalled by the firms:

Total expected expenditure on capital formation for 2015-16 is now 24.6 per cent lower than the firms indicated for 2014-15.
Total expected expenditure on buildings and structures for 2015-16 is now 27.7 per cent lower than the firms indicated for 2014-15.
Total expected expenditure on equipment, plant and machinery for 2015-16 is now 17.4 per cent lower than the firms indicated for 2014-15.


What struck me about the drop in capex—the real drop started in the last quarter. If that continues the next quarter will be jumping off a ledge time.
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Re: Australian economy

Postby HBS Guy » 02 Jun 2015, 10:15

The sub program could provide some extra capex. Too bad monkey has already signed a deal with Japan to get them to sign an FTA.

We could also start accepting the worlds nuclear waste to be treated by the CSIRO process and buried in disused Broken Hill mines. That would improve the ecology worldwide now being contaminated by seepage from poorly stored waste. Add in siting a nice big nuke at the top of Spencers Gulf, building the FTTH NBN and we would be so fucking rich we could close the ATO just about!

If monkey decides to call an election he would have to do it before the already–made decision to build the wrong subs in Japan is announced, yet they have no real trigger at this stage. Already, as I have noted, it seems the LNP is worried about its SA seats. Vic would have expected substantial contracts from ASC that now won’t happen—and the car makers are due to close in 2017! You couldn’t make this up!
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Re: Australian economy

Postby HBS Guy » 02 Jun 2015, 15:13

RBA has left rates on hold at 2%.

Maybe the plunge in capex has convinced that board of idiots, fools and drones that the fuck around they were doing did nothing more than inflate the housing bubble?
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Re: Australian economy

Postby HBS Guy » 02 Jun 2015, 16:36

Just what the IPA wanted –
Australia is replacing more jobs than it is losing, but the work is significantly lower-paying
http://www.businessinsider.com.au/austr ... ing-2015-6


The consequences are grim.
“Should this trend continue, it will likely impact on consumption and taxable income; two areas both the government and RBA would like to see accelerating given persistent softness in other areas of the economy”

Meanwhile, as HoJo beavers away at the books:
Image

I doubt seriously the adding more jobs than are lost, I mean, just look at the plunge in capex!
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Re: Australian economy

Postby HBS Guy » 03 Jun 2015, 13:08

The typical analyst surveyed by Bloomberg expected the economy to grow 2.1 per cent over the year to March.

However, the expectations that today's Bureau of Statistics number beat were very low, and the 2.3 per cent growth was down on the 2.5 per cent reported for the year to December. . . .

The March quarter growth number was a bright spot though - at 0.9 per cent, the economy would be back on track for 3.6 per cent annual growth if that pace of expansion could be maintained.

However, while the March quarter seasonally adjusted "real" gross domestic product (GDP) number was reasonably good, the key measure of disposable household income only rose 0.1 per cent in the quarter and was flat over the past year.


(ABC website)

That slow growth in household income will slow the economy more. It also shows that PAYE receipts will not be as high as budgeted, meaning the deficit will be higher than budgeted also. The two figures also mean unemployment will increase and so will NewStart payments, etc.
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Re: Australian economy

Postby HBS Guy » 04 Jun 2015, 14:12

Australia has posted its worst monthly trade deficit on record, with imports exceeding exports by nearly $3.9 billion.

Bureau of Statistics data show the deficit of $3,888 million in April just edged the previous record of $3,881 million set in February 2008 as commodity prices slumped during the peak of the global financial crisis.

The data shocked economists, who had been expecting a poor result but nowhere near as bad as the actual figure.


http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-06-04/t ... es/6521468

GDP growth slows, unemployment rising now this. HTF can Hockey say the economy is healthy?

All the Libs work too, shattering confidence and willingness to borrow and spend with last years Budget, destroying the NBN and the RET, imposing austerity—just WHAT*THE*HELL* did the idiots expect to happen? Some is not their fault, the decline in mine capex but they SHOULD have been prepared for it and had policies in place.

The only way to avert recession now is for the government to run out a fairly massive program of infrastructure works. Borrowing is still cheap and long term (decades long) borrowings are the perfect way to finance public works, all the generations that use or indirectly benefit from the infrastructure can pay for it.

Boost the RET, run out FTTH at a rate of knots, reinstate Labor’s full infrastructure program will be what is needed. Employ people and boost future productivity.

A surplus is not needed to pay down debt. All the Great Depression, WWII and post WWII schemes were paid back with nary a surplus in sight. It was paid back with growth in the economy: 1950–70 were some of the best years for growth since then neoconfuckery has increasingly destroyed the robustness of the economy, the last bunch of clowns just the worst.
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Re: Australian economy

Postby HBS Guy » 04 Jun 2015, 22:05

Retail sales miss expectations
4 JUN | 2:18 PM | RODDAN AND AAP
Official ABS data shows retail sales were flat in April, missing forecasts for 0.3% gain.


(ABS via Business Spectator)

Retail WAS one bright(ish) spot.
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Re: Australian economy

Postby HBS Guy » 05 Jun 2015, 16:46

Abbott’s obstinacy in preventing reform is paradoxically causing unease among voters who want stability.

Voters know the deficit can’t keep zooming up as it is under the Howard/Hokey shambles, they know superannuation is being misused by the very rich who use it to avoid massive amounts of tax as do big corporations. Unemployment is rising and so on.

http://www.afr.com/news/policy/tony-abb ... pi?stb=twt

It is quite possible Abbott leaked the disagreement among cabinet ministers re removing citizenship of returning “terrorists” because when everything is going pear shaped you need lots of things to distract voters
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Re: Australian economy

Postby HBS Guy » 06 Jun 2015, 19:29

Nice article on Wayne Swan, why he is still in Parliament and the good things he is doing:

http://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news ... XJ3KGSqqkp
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Re: Australian economy

Postby HBS Guy » 06 Jun 2015, 20:15

The Abbott government faces a growing jobs challenge as the number of people trapped in long-term unemployment hits a 16-year high, taking a growing toll on Australia's collective wellbeing.

The number of people out of work for a year or more has risen by 18 per cent over the past year to 188,000, seasonally adjusted Bureau Statistics figures show. That's the highest number since the late 1990s and almost three times more than mid-2008, just before the global financial crisis.


http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-econ ... 606-ghhp6i

Of course, the shambles has no idea how to tackle this problem and crap like the Green Army, Work for the Dole are just playing to the Lib base, not serious policies. Abbott is worrying about an early election thinking terrorism is the card he can play. So housing bubbles, long term unemployment, growing inequality, a deteriorating economy, education, global warming etc etc can go hang, he wants an election on terrorism. More Australians have been killed by violent partners than by terrorism but that doesn’t matter to the Minister for Women.
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