New Ice Age

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karlrand
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Re: New Ice Age

Post by karlrand »

HBS Guy wrote:This is THE classic logical fallacy of Appeal to Authority:
Keep going - debunk David DuByne
and anyone else including university professors.
David Dubyne is no authority on anything much, could give masterclasses in grifting and scamming I suppose. Zharkova’s model did not work, Booby, it could not hindcast the Wolf, Maunder or Dalton GSMs. Zharkova is no authority on the sun or climate!
It will be interesting to see how certain parties react when reality catches up with them.
In fact the farmers around me, no matter what their view on global warming was a few years ago, are all terrified of what they are now having to deal with, let alone where it’s going to take us. It may sound smug but I suggest our species is about to achieve the extinction it deserves if not through climate change then through the political instabilities it triggers and the resultant wars, very possibly nuclear, biological,chemical or any combination of the three.
As my favourite Chinese curse says. “May you live in interesting times"

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Re: New Ice Age

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As the Himalayan snowfields retreat and meltwater that waters 1/4 of the worlds population diminishes I expect a war, probably nuclear, between India and China.

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Re: New Ice Age

Post by Aussie »

Ima gonna move this Thread.....if I don't read any objection.

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Re: New Ice Age

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No, this belongs in Sand Pit. It is not a serious thread, more for poking fun at the gullible idiot Booby.

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Re: New Ice Age

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HBS Guy wrote:No, this belongs in Sand Pit. It is not a serious thread, more for poking fun at the gullible idiot Booby.
An entire Thread....so one wanker can see it?

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Re: New Ice Age

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Yeah.

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Re: New Ice Age

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Aussie wrote:
HBS Guy wrote:No, this belongs in Sand Pit. It is not a serious thread, more for poking fun at the gullible idiot Booby.
An entire Thread....so one wanker can see it?
There are many threads on this forum just so someone can read it from OZ Pol :tweed
Bongalong... for some reason women are just so superior to anything that ever existed or will ever exist!
Shellandshilo1956 ….. Even an annoying troll, has the right to free speech.

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Re: New Ice Age

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Maybe Booby should read:
https://climatefeedback.org/we-are-not- ... ome-media/

and this:
https://www.livescience.com/amp/61716-s ... rming.html

and:
https://t.co/4hfhQYROQO?amp=1

Probably beyond his comprehension but he should stick to it, finish at least one of those articles.

The case for no mini ice age because of a GSM can be made fairly simply:

1. We are rather warmer now than during the Medieval Warm Period.

2. AGW is warming the globe at about 0.2°C per decade.

3. Cooling from MWP to LIA was no more than 0.5°C, not huge. The same cooling factors now would not take us back to LIA type temperatures—we have warmed 1.2°C since 1880, about 0.8°C of that since the end of the 1970s so that cooling would only take us back to the 1980s level temperature.

4. A GSM cools by 0.2°C tops—note from point 2 that AGW warms by that amount in a decade and will throughout a GSM.

5. A GSM is the sun emitting a little less UV. That would not stop AGW warming the globe. Deniers do not realise this but their heads are filled with nonsense from charlatans.

6. With heat from the oceans buffering any temporary cooling and AGW still going it is likely we wouldn’t even notice a GSM when one happens. That is unlikely to happen in the next 2-3 decades. When it happens AGS has warmed us by at least 3 x 0.2 = 0.6°C, even less likely an ice age will result.

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Re: New Ice Age

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Booby if you have donated to Dubyne I would see about getting that money back. You will never get back the time you wasted watching those stupid videos by the charlatan and reading the ill informed comments to them.

Don’t double down on that wasted time by believing another charlatan.

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Re: New Ice Age

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The willful ignorance blatantly displayed by that clown Ajax in OzPol is getting on my tits!

For FUCKS sake Ajax, Mann did not lose the case against Tim Ball: the case was still in discovery, not trial (get an adult to explain this) when the court took pity on “an old, sick, irrelevant fool” (the words of Ball’s lawyers!) and terminated the case. Mann had what he wanted—a retraction and an apology from the website that published Ball’s diatribe—and let the case drag on (easy as Ball had several long absences for medical procedures.

Nothing Mann had worked on or published was affected in any way. There was no trial, no judgement, a case that had dragged on too long was terminated because the judge took pity on Ball.

AGW was validated in 1949 in studies for the US Navy and Air Force!

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Re: New Ice Age

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Booby says I am a follower of Mann, like the moron used to say I was an Al Gore fan. No evidence for either statement of course, Booby is not into thinking or evidence, just feelings.

Mann was not defeated by Ball—there was no actual fucking trial you zombie!

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Re: New Ice Age

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Here is my apology

“I am sorry you are brainless fuckwits Booby and Ajax. I would suggest a course in critical thinking for you two but you don’t actually think, do you?”

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Re: New Ice Age

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Sore End aka Frank makes it the brainless trio.

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Re: New Ice Age

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PhilPerth tries to inject some facts into the debate. But facts are not what is wanted there, feelings rule there.

Yes, Mann v Ball was still in the discovery stage. The judge took pity on Ball “an old, sick, irrelevant nobody” (Ball’s lawyers’ own words!) and terminated the case as judges can do when cases drag on too long. Terminated, not dismissed. No trial, no vindication for either party.

Mann’s data and computer code are here and have been since 2003:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~mann/shared/r ... ANNETAL98/

One of the most pernicious lies about Mann is that he refuses to supply his data and code. The above link shows that that is false! A Mod should not allow lies to stand, over to you Booby!

Now to Valentina Zharkova, Professor of Mathematics at Northumbria University. She studied two cycles of the sun and thought she knew it all. She developed a simplistic model but when she tried to demonstrate it it did not hindcast known past GSMs. Her model is simplistic and worthless. There is a huge PubPeer thread (look up the “And then there’s Physics” blog run by Ken Rice—he devotes a few pages to the Zharkova saga and has a link to the Pubpeer thread.

Now to the ice age nonsense.

1. A GSM cools globally by 0.2°C tops (do some googling and you will find that I am, as always, right.)

2. AGW warms by 0.2°C per decade. Plenty of authoritative charts by NASA/NOAA/MetOffice/Japanese Met organisation etc.

So a GSM by itself cannot cause what is misleadingly termed a Little Ice Age.

So what did cause the LIA? This was pretty much a North America/Europe event, triggered by huge volcanic eruptions and maintained by increase in albedo, flow of cold meltwater from the Arctic entering the North Atlantic and stopping or slowing the Gulf Stream. Again, none of this would cool us now by enough to get anywhere near LIA conditions—and AGW will continue warming the globe a smidge under 0.2°C per decade.

There will not be another LIA again.

Not only that, there will likely not be a major ice age again. Milankovitch Cycles, perturbations in Earths orbit and inclination cause less insolation above 65°N so freezing the Arctic and causing major ice ages. However, Milankovitch Cycles are weak and only caused the ice ages when CO2 had dropped below 300ppm. It is currently 412ppm and climbing—no more regular major ice ages.

You watch Booby will be too gutless to post this. He has already lied about one of my posts in the last few hours.

Booby can read this then apologise for slandering me:
http://legendofpineridge.blogspot.com/2 ... le-on.html
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Re: New Ice Age

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Humans began emitting CO2 and changing the climate thereby when cities and intensive agriculture started. Burning gigatons of fossil fuel decreased the oxygen content of the atmosphere slightly and boosted CO2 content hugely. You can see how that slowed the decrease in temperatures over the last 6000 years until the Industrial Revolution when temperatures rose at a rapid rate, 0.2°C per decade now.

Ice age now is little minds, frightened at what is happening, invent stories, GSM means Ice Age! to stop them being scared. World is still warming tho. A GSM will cause just the tiniest blip in the temperature record.

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Re: New Ice Age

Post by karlrand »

HBS Guy wrote:Humans began emitting CO2 and changing the climate thereby when cities and intensive agriculture started. Burning gigatons of fossil fuel decreased the oxygen content of the atmosphere slightly and boosted CO2 content hugely. You can see how that slowed the decrease in temperatures over the last 6000 years until the Industrial Revolution when temperatures rose at a rapid rate, 0.2°C per decade now.

Ice age now is little minds, frightened at what is happening, invent stories, GSM means Ice Age! to stop them being scared. World is still warming tho. A GSM will cause just the tiniest blip in the temperature record.
I suspect for a significant percent of those who deny global warming more is involved than an attempt to ignore a terrifying future. Our species has always had (and always will have?) a number of deluded individuals desperately wanting to believe they’re in possession of ’secret knowledge’ the rest of us can’t see. This time around it’s worse than anything like a flat earth theory. The power such idiocy hands to governments thinking only up to the next election threatens us all, even the denialists.

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Re: New Ice Age

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Yup, when I bothered to read the comments of the cretins posting to a Dubyne monetised YouTube a fairly constant refrain was “We know something other people don’t.”

Yes, deniers do give governments the ability to just keep going down the fossil fuel burning path. That is why I battle them on Twitter, show denialism is not universal and has no science behind it.

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Re: New Ice Age

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And Ajax just goes on and on repeating utter crap about the Mann/Ball case. Pathetic.

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Re: New Ice Age

Post by Aussie »

This is pissing me orf Monk. I log in...see a new post in Sand Pit, check it, and it is some climate stuff which belongs in the right place.

:mad

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Re: New Ice Age

Post by HBS Guy »

Judith Curry has made a prediction for 2020-2040: gonna cool.

Of course, she predicted that for 2000-2020 too. She reckons due to get more vulcanism. You can’t predict that.

Why do people believe in this crap?

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Re: New Ice Age

Post by Dax »

Here's some fake news that will boost the claim of a new ice age, told you it was coming much soon than anyone anticipated. :rofl :rofl :rofl

This year may see even bigger disasters, especially if a number of glaciers collapse during the northern summer. Then when the next southern summer comes along, we may see one of Antarctica's biggest glacial ice sheets slide into the sea. The rate of movement to the ocean off all ice sheets and glaciers are accelerating rapidly, which means sea rises of well over 2 metres may occur within the next couple of years and then the shit will l hit the fan for everyone.
They are going to build an all weather all seasons landing strip on Casey station, because there are now area's where there is no snow all year round.

Where I live, the sea temp at this time of the year was always around 12-14deg C, now it's 18-20deg C. All the kelp beds have died, the crayfish have soft shells from the growing acidity of the ocean and many fish species have disappeared.

"The Antarctic has registered a temperature of more than 20C (68F) for the first time on record, prompting fears of climate instability in the world’s greatest repository of ice."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... ime-record

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Re: New Ice Age

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Does chitin have carbonates in it or just polysaccharides?

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Re: New Ice Age

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Looks like the Booby–Dubyne love affair is on again.

What a dump of an MRB! Ajax posting complete shite about the Mann v Ball court case, lee of course joining in—no ruling or demand by the court for Mann to disclose data was ever made. The data is freely available on a server and has been for ages.

Dubyne posts a lie about our wheat harvest, 79% loss. Bullshit, this is ABARE:
Area planted to grain sorghum is estimated to have decreased by 71% in 2019–20 to 143,000 hectares. Production is forecast to fall by 77% to around 292,000 tonnes.

Area planted to cotton is forecast to fall by 82% in 2019–20 to 61,000 hectares because of low supplies of irrigation water and insufficient levels of soil moisture to plant dryland cotton. Planted area is estimated to be the lowest since 1978–79 when it was 50,000 hectares. Production is forecast to decline by 72% to around 135,000 tonnes of lint and 191,000 tonnes of seed. The average yield is forecast to rise from last season because almost all cotton crops this season are irrigated.

Rice production is forecast to remain low at around 54,000 tonnes because of low water allocations and high water prices.

Harvesting of 2019–20 winter crops is largely complete and estimated production remains largely unchanged from the forecast ABARES published in the December 2019 edition of Australian crop report. Higher than expected barley and canola production is estimated to have offset lower than expected wheat production.

Australian winter crop production is estimated to have decreased by 5% in 2019–20 to just under 29 million tonnes. Wheat production is estimated to have fallen by 12% to 15.2 million tonnes, barley production is estimated to have increased by 7% to 8.9 million tonnes and canola production is estimated to have increased by 7% to 2.3 million tonnes. Amongst other crops, chickpea production is estimated to have remained largely unchanged at 281,000 tonnes and oats production is estimated to have increased by 1% to 900,000 tonnes.

Winter crop area is estimated to have increased slightly in 2019–20 to 18 million hectares.
https://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares/r ... t/overview

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Re: New Ice Age

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Booby is getting desperate, saying I agreed with the liar and scammer/grifter Dubyne. Dubyne was talking about wheat, not summer crops. And loss due to heat tho you were not bright enough to pick that up, were you? Gullible numpty!

Dubyne is getting desperate, Booby and is talking more crap than he used to. Northern Hemisphere had a nice mild winter, even Holland was well above zero. Then no sign of a GSM tho it is “deepening” according to the grifter.

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Re: New Ice Age

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Ooooooohhh! Booby changed text from his idol Dubyne, quoting now the 66% figure for summer crops where the grifter had said 77% of the wheat crop.

If you have to do so much bloody fiddling does it not show that Dubyne just talks crap?

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