New Ice Age

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Re: New Ice Age

Postby HBS Guy » 17 Jul 2018, 05:50

Yeah, and if plants are growing where none used to it means some CO2 is being absorbed, removed from the atmosphere!

I doubt the greening is directly due to extra CO2, tho it may reduce need for water, I think it is due to more water vapor and precipitation.

Lees was so keen to point out less area could get burned because we have cut down forest etc to plant crops but that has nothing to do with the ferocity of wildfires! :hot
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Re: New Ice Age

Postby HBS Guy » 17 Jul 2018, 21:54

Wow, Booby was totally unable to answer some basic questions about a GSM and ice age etc. All that time watching dodgy YouTubes, that money donated, the houseful of “survival gear” and he couldn’t answer a single, simple question!

The basic one—evidence that the sun is in a Grand Solar Minimum he could not answer. So, hypothetically I asked him how much cooling a GSM would bring. Lot of bluster IF we had a lot of vulcanicity yadda yadda yadda we would have a little ice age with ice down to the Mediterranean. What he is describing is a MAJOR ice age which is caused by orbital changes—Milankovitch cycles. Except the ice rarely ever gets as far south as the Med!

He has watched hundreds of videos, thinks he is an expert, knows nothing.

He told me he had a house full of survival gear and I bet he donates pretty heavily to Dubyne. All over a load of hogwash.

The Little Ice Age started in the 14th century, nobody is sure why. The term ice age for that period is not really accurate—no ice sheets etc. The Maunder Minimum came along hundreds of years after that. The scammers have convinced people that a GSM now would lead to conditions like the time of the last Maunder Minimum. But we have warmed 1.5–1.7°C since the LIA so a cooling of 0.3, a Maunder Minimum level of cooling, would wind back a fraction of the warming the world has undergone. That is it, that is why people are spending thousands of dollars “prepping.”
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Re: New Ice Age

Postby HBS Guy » 18 Jul 2018, 12:31

Nearly an hour ago I Tweeted the same questions as I asked Booby, no reply yet, amazing :rofl

Parakeelia millions! @PolAnimalAus More

What direct evidence does anyone have for a #grandsolarminimum now?

Hypothetically, how much would a GSM cool the globe?

Hypothetically, which are signs of a GSM:
1. More rain, atmospheric rivers
2. More, bigger hail
3. More, bigger wildfires

Anyone?


42 minutes later I asked:

Parakeelia millions! @PolAnimalAus now More

No one?
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Re: New Ice Age

Postby HBS Guy » 04 Aug 2018, 19:23

Dubyne is lying his head off on Twitter.

He posted the chart of Arctic temperatures 2 weeks out of date “Is Arctic summer over?” he asked. I posted the current chart which shows temperatures above average and said summer still had a month to run. Arctic ice is forming at huge rate, so I posted the Arctic sea ice extent graph—very low ice and shrinking towards the low point for the year.

Lately, everything is “Sulphur dioxide” which came out of the Hawaii volcano, even the one Himalayan glacier that is advancing (as a very few glaciers do, positioned just right wrt prevailing winds and benefit from the increased evaporation-precipitation AGW brings.

How can people believe this shit?
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Re: New Ice Age

Postby johnsmith » 04 Aug 2018, 19:45

HBS Guy wrote:How can people believe this shit?


easy, they're born brainless. Take bobby for example!
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Re: New Ice Age

Postby HBS Guy » 04 Aug 2018, 20:04

Needy, like Booby NEEDS validation from “leaders” like FD and Dubyne. He understands nothing of what they tell him but as long as they pat his head occasionally.

A thread in comments—we know what is really happening. Another—conspiracy theorists, and jesus freaks.

But they all have a brain! It was fucking hot over 75% of the world in the last few months!

I know Booby NEVER checks ANYTHING Dubyne says. Pathetic.
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Re: New Ice Age

Postby HBS Guy » 07 Aug 2018, 00:57

Booby thinks DonDeeHippy is a sock of mine.

Why not ask a GMod you boring piece of shit? They will tell you you are wrong, as usual. For your own sake, do not go asking FD to give me a forum–wide ban based only on your half-baked ideas—FD won’t like having his time wasted.

I have no socks on OzPol. None.
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Re: New Ice Age

Postby HBS Guy » 24 Aug 2018, 21:10

Booby whines, in Tavern, of course, not where he can be held to account, the big poof:

It's difficult to forgive Monk for all he's done to me.


What have I done to you? YOU trolled me and mothra—no apology YET! Creepy—and Booby reckons he is “a real man” nah you ain’t, Booby. He has also called me “fool” and “bloody fool” which was water off a duck’s back coming from such a big bloody fool and gullible idiot!

He banned me from the Dubyne MRB. In the six months since Feb only about 600 posts have been added there—kinda cutting off your nose to spite your face.
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Re: New Ice Age

Postby HBS Guy » 24 Aug 2018, 21:21

The big poof also asked:

Why are all of Monk's socks gay?


Can you name any of my socks, here or OzPol, Booby? Give you a hint: I do not have any socks anywhere (aside from my sock drawer in my wardrobe.) Stupid dick, only a poof makes a statement like that with ZERO evidence. What a clown you are!
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Re: New Ice Age

Postby johnsmith » 24 Aug 2018, 21:24

HBS Guy wrote:
What have I done to you?


he blames you for his stupidity. he thinks it's you making him look so, he hasn't figured out that he does it to himself every time he opens his mouth :bgrin
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Re: New Ice Age

Postby HBS Guy » 24 Aug 2018, 21:48

Pretty much. Nobody posts in the Dubyne MRB, that must be my fault I suppose :roll How could anyone make that dweeb a Mod???

Booby keeps on whining in Tavern:

Monk likes filthy homosexual language -
his forum is full of it -
how disgusting.


That would be Squire’s “I’m going in dry” pic, I suppose. 1 out of over 100K posts but he found it. Not as offputting as all that violence porn he posts all the fucking time! That is dehumanising!
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Re: New Ice Age

Postby johnsmith » 24 Aug 2018, 22:33

HBS Guy wrote:Pretty much. Nobody posts in the Dubyne MRB, that must be my fault I suppose :roll How could anyone make that dweeb a Mod???

Booby keeps on whining in Tavern:

Monk likes filthy homosexual language -
his forum is full of it -
how disgusting.


That would be Squire’s “I’m going in dry” pic, I suppose. 1 out of over 100K posts but he found it. Not as offputting as all that violence porn he posts all the fucking time! That is dehumanising!



the guy is obsessed with homo's, it's all he goes on about :OMG
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Re: New Ice Age

Postby HBS Guy » 24 Aug 2018, 22:38

It is so obvious he is gay it isn’t funny!
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Re: New Ice Age

Postby HBS Guy » 25 Aug 2018, 01:13

And of course Sand Pit is the only board on this fine forum. The stupidity, my god! Unbelievable!
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Re: New Ice Age

Postby HBS Guy » 25 Aug 2018, 09:31

Booby just lies:

http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1535008978/11#11

1 post out of over 100,000 posts is “typical.”

Not just a liar, stupid as fuck!
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Re: New Ice Age

Postby HBS Guy » 25 Aug 2018, 12:56

Theory: we are heading into an ice age so the globe is cooling.

Alternative hypothesis: temperatures are dropping beyond normal variation (ENSO, PDO etc)

Null hypothesis: temperatures are constant (or just change randomly)

Test: Booby says the GSM really got started in 2016. So we could use a dataset of monthly global temperatures 2010–2018 and compare that to, say, 1990–1999. Both periods have a big El Nino. Do a test to compare means, maybe?

Reality: we know the four hottest years were 2015-16-17-18. Of course temperatures have increased, not decreased.

The null hypothesis is therefor rejected. Looking at the data we see the temperatures increased between the two sample decades and over the combined sample alltogether. We therefor reject the alternate hypothesis which means we reject the, frankly rather silly, theory that we are moving into an ice age.

I can’t test for whether the sun is moving into a GSM because neither the ice age scammers nor actual scientists observing the sun have provided any evidence one way or another. NASA thinks we may have a GSM around 2050.

The bell curves of the global minimum and maximum temperature distributions have shifted a bit to the warm side—the mean of the bell shaped curves has moved towards the warmer side of the temperature range. Extreme cold events are less frequent, extreme heat events are more common—just witness the heatwave in the present NH and large parts of the SH this NH summer.

When a GSM does happen the globe will cool temporarily by 0.3°C tops. The scammers and their dupes prattle on about the Maunder Minimum to see what will happen if a MM happened now. Billions of people would die, according to Booby.

None of these liars and their dupes remember that since the last MM over 50% more CO2 has been emitted into the atmosphere. So if a GSM happens and it cools the planet a trivial amount AGW will catch up and pass that cooling in a very few years. We are also not in a LIA now so a Maunder Minimum now will be very different to the last MM.

Conclusion: an ice age now is a frankly idiotic idea!
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Re: New Ice Age

Postby HBS Guy » 25 Aug 2018, 20:49

:rofl :rofl :rofl :rofl :rofl :rofl

Oh dear! Poor old Lees! Constantly whinging about the number of weather stations “Its not enough, the data is insufficient, not enough weather stations!” Gawd most of the interior can probably be monitored by one or two stations.

Anyway, came across a link to this blog in Twitter: https://andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2018/08/18/you-only-need-about-60-surface-stations/

60 stations will do to calculate global temperature anomalies! ahahahahahaha! Need more for actual temperatures (as someone points out in comments) but anomalies not so much.
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Re: New Ice Age

Postby HBS Guy » 29 Aug 2018, 07:16

Oh dear, poor Booby!

[1] A future Maunder Minimum type grand solar minimum, with total solar irradiance reduced by 0.25% over a 50 year period from 2020 to 2070, is imposed in a future climate change scenario experiment (RCP4.5) using, for the first time, a global coupled climate model that includes ozone chemistry and resolved stratospheric dynamics (Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model). This model has been shown to simulate two amplifying mechanisms that produce regional signals of decadal climate variability comparable to observations, and thus is considered a credible tool to simulate the Sun's effects on Earth's climate. After the initial decrease of solar radiation in 2020, globally averaged surface air temperature cools relative to the reference simulation by up to several tenths of a degree Centigrade. By the end of the grand solar minimum in 2070, the warming nearly catches up to the reference simulation. Thus, a future grand solar minimum could slow down but not stop global warming.


https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/grl.50361
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Re: New Ice Age

Postby HBS Guy » 07 Sep 2018, 22:39

Just noticed this:

Sir Bobby wrote:Monk wanted to know about Antarctic Ice melting -
well he now has an answer from the great David DuByne that puts the matter to rest:
What is Going on with Antarctic Ice loss and Global Temperatures (638)

Adapt 2030
Published on Jun 20, 2018
While MSM news outlets planet wide print stories fo Antarctic continental ice melting at a 3x faster pace than the last 10 years, they just discredited all of the climate agencies globally like NASA, NOAA, NSIDC & DMI that all showed gains in Antarctic ice on both land and sea. Now global temperatures are at 0.18C when the models all showed we should be at 2.0C and sea levels are lower than predicted. We need to ask questions why we are continually fed conflicting data from the news agencies.


Didn’t notice this before. Liar Dubyne is using the UAH temperature series:
Image

This is based on satellite measurements of near surface temperatures. It shows the slowest/least temperature rise but the readings are suspect. In the case of UAH there are a number of issues. Most particularly:

• Contamination of the signal by stratospheric effects

• Errors in orbit calculation.

Anthony Purcell @Tony_Purc Sep 2 More

There is very little merit to the argument that observing temperature from a distance of many hundreds of kilometres through atmospheric contamination produces superior results to ground-based observations


A definite outlier and suspect. Note that it is showing a decreasing temperature even as the summer and its heatwaves heated the northern hemisphere. Bullshit.

Have a look at the chart—arrow pointing to “Aug 2018” but it is pointing to July 2018 with Aug temperature higher than that. What a clown, fucks up annotating his own, already suss, graph :rofl :rofl :rofl :rofl

Have a look at GISStemps, they follow a sensible seasonal pattern and the heatwaves have obviously lifted 2018 temperature:
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Re: New Ice Age

Postby johnsmith » 08 Sep 2018, 08:33

HBS Guy wrote:from the great David DuByne


:rofl :rofl :rofl :rofl :rofl :rofl :rofl :rofl :rofl :rofl :rofl :rofl :rofl :rofl :rofl :rofl



no wonder everyone thinks bobby is an idiot
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Re: New Ice Age

Postby HBS Guy » 08 Sep 2018, 12:08

A cheap scammer “great.”

Is Booby trying to convince himself?
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Re: New Ice Age

Postby HBS Guy » 09 Sep 2018, 22:41

Look at this shit by YouLiar in the Dubyne MRB:

But a prolonged solar minimum could mean a “mini ice age.” The last time there was a prolonged solar minimum, it did, in fact, lead to a mini ice-age which was scientifically known as the Maunder minimum. That little cold snap lasted for 70 years between the years 1645 and 1715. During this period, temperatures dropped globally by 1.3 degrees Celsius leading to shorter seasons and ultimately food shortages.


The Little Ice Age started a couple hundred years before the Sun went into the Maunder Minimum! The MM did NOT therefor cause an ice age!

The LIA was 0.5°C cooler than temperatures in the early 1900s. The MM depressed that by another 0.3°C.

No LIA now. If the sun were to go into a Maunder Minimum now we would still be nearly 1°C warmer than the early 1900s. Regardless of how long the MM lasted we still have 46% more CO2 (490ppm CO2 and other GHGs or CO2e) so AGW would still be working and reduce if not overtake the cooling from the MM.

The sun went a bit quiet in the 1980s yet we warmed 0.5°C since 1990, just shows the sun is not the driver of the warming, CO2e is.

All these morons, these dupes of the ice age scammers keep forgetting:

1. No LIA exists now and not even a MM will create one.

2. We have 490ppm CO2e, the 21st century will not be like the 17thC.


In the same thread Agnes with a commonsense question:
so what is this boiling hot summer we are hearing of for this year?


An El Nino is building in the Pacific, that always means heat on our side of the pond. Booby is an idiot, Agnes.
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Re: New Ice Age

Postby HBS Guy » 10 Sep 2018, 06:05

https://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/news-events/study-undercuts-idea-medieval-warm-period-was-global

1. The Medieval Warm Period, 950-1250, was local not global.

2. It wasn’t cold drove the Vikings from Greenland and their settlements were not under ice during the Little Ice Age:
that the glaciers had neared or reached their later maximum Little Ice Age positions between 975 and 1275. The strong implication: it was at least as cold when the Vikings arrived as when they left. “If the Vikings traveled to Greenland when it was cool, it’s a stretch to say deteriorating climate drove them out,” said Young.


3.
The new study may feed recent suggestions by other researchers that the Medieval Warm Period was in part just an extended phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Modern observations show that the NAO is a generally decadal-scale climate cycle, in which warm winds from the west strengthen and boost temperatures in Europe and Iceland, but simultaneously make southwest Greenland and Baffin Island colder, by sucking in more Arctic air. That makes the two regions seesaw in opposite directions.


The simplistic picture that glaciers threatened Viking settlements and drove the Vikings away and that their settlements are now appearing from under the ice was always wrong. Also blown away is any idea that the MWP was warmer than now if it only affected part of Europe!
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Re: New Ice Age

Postby HBS Guy » 12 Sep 2018, 18:39

Demonstration that CO2 IS a greenhouse gas. Even Booby can understand it, well, maybe:

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Re: New Ice Age

Postby HBS Guy » 12 Sep 2018, 18:50

Look at the Australian temperature distributions:

Image

Look at the max temperature distribution. Note how the 1981–2010 and 2001-2015 peaks are lower than the 1951–1980 max temperature distribution. I asked on OzPol what the lower height of the distribution meant. No answer—the collected brain power of Booby, The Moronic and Lees if converted to gunpowder would not have enough oomph to blow the wax out of one of their ears.

If the means are less it means the distribution is more spread out—fewer cases happen near the mean. More variance, a bigger standard deviation etc in statistical terms. There is another difference tho. Have a look at the tails of the max temperature distribution.

Look at the max temperature distribution. Look at the lowest grid line. On the left the three curves join pretty much on the grid line. On the right the extreme high tail is above that lowest grid line and is still just above that line at the right edge of the graph. There are more higher temperatures then there are lower temperatures. In statistical terms this is a skewed distribution with lower kurtosis (“peakyness”) than the 1951–1980 distribution.

Those are the facts in dry statistical terms. In real life terms the change in the distribution means: extreme heat is now more likely to happen!

The minimum temperature curve has similarly shifted so we are more likely to have milder winters than colder winters tho cold events can still happen. Australia has had two mild winters on the trot.
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